Trading fx fundamentals

Good day to all

I am going to be putting together a series of PDFs and YouTube videos over the coming weeks. The PDFs will have the following

1) learning to trade fundamentals - news trading (intraday)
2) learning to trade fundamentals - swing trading (1 to 3 trades a week)
3) learning to trade Fundamentals - long term trading (using major shifts in Central banks for medium term gains 6 months to several years)
4) sentiment dissection - a focus on interpreting sentiment
5) identifying risk off flows and the opportunities it offers.

The YouTube channels will be focused on how to use the site for your research

Also, if you are using the site, is there anything you would like to see more of? I have made this decision based on analytics on the site where the majority of the traffic is on the learning section so I want to spend a great deal of effort getting this section as useful for everyone as possible. I appreciate it can be daunting learning this stuff but I promise it will be a skill you will take with you for lifelong trading success, and you will know what's going on in the world which is always advantageous.

Have a great weekend. Will post an update for next week over the course of the weekend. This past week was dominated by Central banks and the next focus is the G20.

hellow ECO which membership Daily Scrum allowed?

Daily scrum is allowed for all members, just need to be registered (no paid subscription needed). If that isn't the case let me know and I'll get it fixed.

i am follow Daily Scrum only dont's know use other function activity......

Don't worry ill have videos and trading lessons all done over the coming weeks including a video on how to use the site.

Looking at EURUSD, no news on Monday, from technical part looks like a good sell opportunity? What do you think?

About the pdf and etc. Please do. When you mentioned there are unreliable information and little educators out there, I couldnt really tell if what I am studying is viable for trading. Admitedly, I am more glued to news releases via forexlive to keep abreast of any developments but I fail to plan because of the end of day stress which cause me to surrender everytime.

And oh please do cite any prerequisites as I think this would help to gentle the learning curve. Thanks again Eco

I rarely trade Mondays because of the lack of news. Technically it looks like a short but we now have 2 dovish central banks with the euro that's taken a heavy beating over a lengthy time against a hawkish Fed. I wouldn't be surprise to see euro strengthen a bit here even in light of technicals. Actually thinking about it, this could be a potential breakout situation which would trigger a lot of stops. I might look at this from that angle but not committed to anything at the moment.

see my next post for my outlook on this.

Exchange rate rebalancing

After last week's central bank policy meetings it is important to recap what it means going forward. Globally, major central banks have been either changing tone or cutting rates. This has driven gold up which had a soft start to the year and is about to break multi-year highs. The noteworthy central bank to discuss is the FED who have been steadily raising rates since the end of 2016. It wasn't until 2018 however when the US economy built momentum which resulted in $ appreciating across the board. We are now in a situation where the FED is most likely going to cut rates which breaks the policy divergences with other major central banks like the ECB. This is something you should be thinking about because we will likely see some adjustments in price that do not conform to pairing strongest against weakest. The US is still the strongest economy but with rate expectations no longer in an upward trajectory, it leaves the $ vulnerable to softening even against those economies with dovish central banks.

Take the ECB as an example, they have been consistently dovish yet optimistic the economy will recover. Since 2018 when the US economy recovery was accelerating, the Euro steadily depreciated against the greenback to the tune of 9.5%. The ECB has been selected as an example as a result of their lack of additional easing in monetary policy. Their language has changed but they haven't cut rates which means there is an opportunity to buy Euro against the Dollar while their policy remains unchanged. The catalyst for this happened last week so you will need to look at technical strategies to trade it- either breakouts or pullbacks etc. If you don't want to trade this then be cognizant of the situation at the very least so that you can make better informed trading decisions.

Lowe: If Everyone Is Easing, The Effect On Exchange Rates Is Offset.

Opportunity for medium term trades off the back of the Fed.

I have been looking around for a home for a position to roll with the weakening dollar over the coming months. This is a medium term trade and the requirements are

1) deviation in policy (pairing hawk with dove)
2) positive rollover to add to the gains but more importantly ,not against me chewing away at profit

My choice for this has been short usdzar which I am targeting the 12 area

For some reason I can't like your post so here is a thumbs up

This Friday G20 meeting. I think China and USA will resolve the issues and USD will go up. What are your thoughts?

We all need more Hawks

European surprise index positive for the first time since September 2018

Contrasted with the US

Is that bloomberg software you have?

Showing my ignorance here, I had never heard of that index.

Nope not mine, its from some social feeds I follow.


From Bloomberg:
The Citigroup Economic Surprise Indices are objective and quantitative measures of economic news. They are defined as weighted historical standard deviations of data surprises (actual releases vs Bloomberg survey median). A positive reading of the Economic Surprise Index suggests that economic releases have on balance [been] beating consensus. The indices are calculated daily in a rolling three-month window. The weights of economic indicators are derived from relative high-frequency spot FX impacts of 1 standard deviation data surprises. The indices also employ a time decay function to replicate the limited memory of markets.

I am trying to get my hands on the data for the site, will be a nice edition.