xAUUSD
weekly TF
Gold Sentiment at 84
weekly TF
Gold Sentiment at 84
- #24,021
- Edited 9:51am Jun 20, 2019 9:27am | Edited 9:51am
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: zero | 20,603 Posts
- #24,022
- Jun 20, 2019 9:50am Jun 20, 2019 9:50am
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: zero | 20,603 Posts
XAGUSD
weekly
looks very bullish in the moment when the scenario on chart evolves
keep in mind:
some have counted the sideways movement since the low as triangle, which has already finished. After that an impulse down for wave 1, then (now) up in wave 2 zigzag. A sudden drop for wave 3 would certainly surprise many.
comparing this with Gold, the second scenario seems to be more likely, because gold has already reached its first targets
so, in Silver I stay cautious
weekly
looks very bullish in the moment when the scenario on chart evolves
keep in mind:
some have counted the sideways movement since the low as triangle, which has already finished. After that an impulse down for wave 1, then (now) up in wave 2 zigzag. A sudden drop for wave 3 would certainly surprise many.
comparing this with Gold, the second scenario seems to be more likely, because gold has already reached its first targets
so, in Silver I stay cautious
- #24,024
- Edited 9:24am Jun 23, 2019 7:34am | Edited 9:24am
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: zero | 20,603 Posts
EU
main count 3-day and daily
main count 3-day and daily
- #24,025
- Jun 23, 2019 8:01am Jun 23, 2019 8:01am
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: zero | 20,603 Posts
low probability bullish count
EU 3-day TF
it is low probability because:
look at the green Y wave - it is build as zigzag. The C wave is only around 29% of A. A zigzag with this proportion has a probability of round about 20%.
Now look at the last wave pink B down: here we see again a zigzag, where wave red C seems to be an ending diagonal.
Again, wave C is only around 38% of A. Again, this probability is around 20%
That gives us altogether a probability of around 4%
EU 3-day TF
it is low probability because:
look at the green Y wave - it is build as zigzag. The C wave is only around 29% of A. A zigzag with this proportion has a probability of round about 20%.
Now look at the last wave pink B down: here we see again a zigzag, where wave red C seems to be an ending diagonal.
Again, wave C is only around 38% of A. Again, this probability is around 20%
That gives us altogether a probability of around 4%
- #24,026
- Jun 23, 2019 8:19am Jun 23, 2019 8:19am
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: zero | 20,603 Posts
low probability bullish count EU 3-day TF it is low probability because: look at the green Y wave - it is build as zigzag. The C wave is only around 29% of A. A zigzag with this proportion has a probability of round about 20%. Now look at the last wave pink B down: here we see again a zigzag, where wave red C seems to be an ending diagonal. Again, wave C is only around 38% of A. Again, this probability is around 20% That gives us altogether a probability of around 4% {image}
how can we correct this count or make it higher probability?
one way is this: a triple zigzag - but then again: triple zigzag are rare occurrences
- #24,027
- Jun 23, 2019 8:40am Jun 23, 2019 8:40am
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: zero | 20,603 Posts
{quote} how can we correct this count or make it higher probability? one way is this: a triple zigzag - but then again: triple zigzag are rare occurrences {image}
so what can we do to make the count more probable:
from the top to the bottom we do count a broad ABC-flat, where B is a triangle
now we have all things alligned to be a higher probability alternative count
- #24,029
- Jun 23, 2019 9:31am Jun 23, 2019 9:31am
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: zero | 20,603 Posts
to sum it up: this are the top scenarios out of my view, with emphasis on the first variant:
bearish
bullish
bearish
bullish
- #24,030
- Jun 23, 2019 9:39am Jun 23, 2019 9:39am
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: zero | 20,603 Posts
sentiment EU
- #24,031
- Jun 23, 2019 9:42am Jun 23, 2019 9:42am
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: zero | 20,603 Posts
it seems that it was only a question of time until the Dukascopy crowd once again was/is wrong positioned
- #24,032
- Jun 23, 2019 9:49am Jun 23, 2019 9:49am
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: zero | 20,603 Posts
EU daily TF
keep this scenario also in your head
ending diagonal for wave C (may also be a leading diagonal but with lower probability)
invalidation with movement above 1448
keep this scenario also in your head
ending diagonal for wave C (may also be a leading diagonal but with lower probability)
invalidation with movement above 1448
- #24,033
- Jun 23, 2019 9:56am Jun 23, 2019 9:56am
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: zero | 20,603 Posts
EU daily TF keep this scenario also in your head ending diagonal for wave C (may also be a leading diagonal but with lower probability) invalidation with movement above 1448 {image}
also possibel in context of the broader bearish scenario:
invalidation above 1448
this scenario makes sense in the way, that the latest overlapping sequence (red 1-5) consists of rather impulsive movements, so qualifying perfectly for a leading diagonal
