damn, this doesn't make any sense | Forex Factory

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damn, this doesn't make any sense

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 10:01am Oct 20, 2006 9:51am | Edited 10:01am
Have a question for the veteran traders:

What happened to USD/JPY just now? At least to me this doesn't make any sense. Sure it looked a bit undersold, but the STO and RSI were almost at sell level. And fundamentally North Korea cancelled the second test and things look worse with US economy and Iraq.

Or is it because it's a national holidat in JP today?

Of course I am not complaining about that, since after this breakout I recovered $40 from yesterday's losses but would really appreciate if someone explained this breakout either technically or fundamentally.
  • #2
  • Oct 20, 2006 10:27am Oct 20, 2006 10:27am
Most veteran traders have learned not to care why the market moved. The only real question is did you (or should you) catch the move. You'll drive yourself nuts trying to figure out why something happened. Even if you do figure it out, you'll be wrong most of the time.

There will be plenty of people lining up to give excuses why the market moved. None of those will make you a better trader.
  • #3
  • Oct 20, 2006 10:34am Oct 20, 2006 10:34am
Also i'd like to add that the moon aligned with mars and we all know that when that happens the sea turtles come in to lay their eggs. Since Japan eats sea turtle eggs (quite a delicatessen) that triggered a massive importation of said eggs, which in return caused a drop in the value of the yen. Never under estimate the impact a few sea turtles can have.



Quoting philmcgrew
Most veteran traders have learned not to care why the market moved. The only real question is did you (or should you) catch the move. You'll drive yourself nuts trying to figure out why something happened. Even if you do figure it out, you'll be wrong most of the time.

There will be plenty of people lining up to give excuses why the market moved. None of those will make you a better trader.
  • #4
  • Oct 20, 2006 10:34am Oct 20, 2006 10:34am
TP,

Phil is right on. The market moves in mysterious ways. No man can know it.

Be the flea. Ride the elephant.

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #5
  • Oct 20, 2006 10:35am Oct 20, 2006 10:35am
Quoting thepunisher
Have a question for the veteran traders:

What happened to USD/JPY just now? At least to me this doesn't make any sense. Sure it looked a bit undersold, but the STO and RSI were almost at sell level. And fundamentally North Korea cancelled the second test and things look worse with US economy and Iraq.

Or is it because it's a national holidat in JP today?

Of course I am not complaining about that, since after this breakout I recovered $40 from yesterday's losses but would really appreciate if someone explained this breakout either technically or fundamentally.
I suggest that this Bloomfield report released at 10 am mighthave had an effect:

The dollar rose against the yen as traders looked to next week's Federal Reserve meeting when the central bank is expected to maintain its focus on fighting inflation.
Central bankers, including Chicago Fed President Michael Moskow, have played down the risks to growth from the current 5.25 percent overnight interest rate on loans between banks. Interest-rate futures show traders have erased bets the Fed will cut rates by January and now see no chance of an ease until April at the earliest.

``I am still in the camp that the Fed remains concerned about inflation and they still have a tightening bias,'' said Brian Garvey, senior currency strategist with State Street Global Markets in Boston, one of the world's largest custodians of investor assets with $10.7 trillion. ``People are selling yen and buying back the dollar.

Having said that I fully agree with philmcgrew above:

Quote
Originally posted by philmcgrew
Most veteran traders have learned not to care why the market moved. The only real question is did you (or should you) catch the move. You'll drive yourself nuts trying to figure out why something happened. Even if you do figure it out, you'll be wrong most of the time.
  • #6
  • Oct 20, 2006 11:11am Oct 20, 2006 11:11am
Thank you for the responses,

As I understand then the only way to ride a breakout is to guess. BTW, is Bloomfield Bloomberg or is that something else?
  • #7
  • Oct 20, 2006 11:16am Oct 20, 2006 11:16am
Quoting thepunisher
Thank you for the responses,

As I understand then the only way to ride a breakout is to guess.
If we knew which way it was going it would be a breakup or breakdown instead of a breakout.

All trading is guessing on some level. You just try to be right a couple more times than you are wrong. After that, you let money management sort it out.
  • #8
  • Oct 22, 2006 6:08am Oct 22, 2006 6:08am
Quoting thepunisher
Have a question for the veteran traders:

What happened to USD/JPY just now? At least to me this doesn't make any sense. Sure it looked a bit undersold, but the STO and RSI were almost at sell level. And fundamentally North Korea cancelled the second test and things look worse with US economy and Iraq.

Or is it because it's a national holidat in JP today?

Of course I am not complaining about that, since after this breakout I recovered $40 from yesterday's losses but would really appreciate if someone explained this breakout either technically or fundamentally.
Hey there... you will find that the market will move for no reason at all, and there will be days when it has a reason why it should move and doesn't. Don't drive yourself crazy trying to figure it out. In most cases, you will never find an answer. I hope that you have a great weekend!
"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
  • #9
  • Oct 24, 2006 9:20pm Oct 24, 2006 9:20pm
Thanks . This was the perfect thread for me today. I could not find my ass with both hands and have been looking for a reason. Feel better now.
  • #10
  • Last Post: Oct 27, 2006 5:07pm Oct 27, 2006 5:07pm
just a thought, i don't remember what day it was, but

north korea threaten to declare war on south korea if they join with
USA sanctions. And north korea and japanies dont get along very well
lot of things happened there lately, nucelar bomb test and so on. I havent looked for usd/jpy chart on these days, but is there any affect on those news?
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