Trading fx fundamentals

Closed my EURUSD buy. Don't like the patterns. I have sell position on GBPUSD.

good gbpjpy close both setup 131+

Loss -$98 on GBPUSD with sell position. Will be back at 2pm for news. Trade safe.

Hey Fader

Many of the voting members are centralists (not overly hawkish or dovish). Some of the closer members in terms of his rhetoric are Bullard & Clarida but most of the members have started shifting away from "the economy is in a good place" to highlighting greater uncertainty and downside risks. It is clear they have started in aggregate, shifting the communication but the real question is the timeline. Inflation is near their target and some recent data suggests a pickup in consumption so while the market is expecting a rate cut, in part I believe due to other central banks cutting or downgrading, the US economy is still very much in a good place with no real signs of a sustained slowdown.

Will the Fed cut today, unlikely, they haven't been communicating the downside risks long enough to meet what would be appropriate communication with the markets. We will see either a change in language prepping the markets for a cut in the near future or, given the economy is still in a good place with green shoots of inflationary pressure there, they could be more neutral and it will be digested as more hawkish than expected.

If they do cut today it will be more of a surprise than anything and the Fed are not in the business of major surprises unless they consider their very brief touch on the downside in their communications as sufficient. If this does happen, it will be hugely dovish because they tend to ease the markets into changes and they haven't communicated this shift for very long.

----- My plan is ----

Scenario 1 - change in language

short $ with limited downside as it is largely priced in

Scenario 2 - no change in language

buy $

Scenario 3 - rate cut (unlikely)

short the shit out of the $

I took a long CADJPY on the release but terminated the trade at 13:40 when it failed to break through a zone for a couple of pips. I see it has since retraced some.

Another trade I just closed for 70 pips was short EURBP which I opened on the 18th off the back of Draghi comments

New feature added to the site to help you know what content has changed in the last 5 days

thank you friends. learning step by step

Cheers Eco

i see you are front running it, ill be trading the press conf if an opp surfaces

[quote=EcoTrader;12339057]{quote} i see you are front running it, ill be trading the press conf if an opp surfaces[/quo

which pair looking to trade news eco?

[quote=thisara1;12339059] if they don't change the language, eurusd short (ecb signalling easing). another one would be long usdjpy. Gold short is another option. This is the hawkish scenario

if they become dovish as expected, will look at short usdcad based on today's cpi data

if they cut, which is unlikely, short usdjpy and short usdcad, long gold

Small loss, but good. Shorting USDCAD and will hold it.

[quote=EcoTrader;12339082] I guess it's dovish.

[quote=Techanalyst;12339122] more likely a case of people trading the headline expecting a dovish press conference

USDCAD bearish.

Took this buy now, closed it manually profit $239.68. News NZD GDP, actual: 0.6% same as forecast so not bad.