EURUSD only

Yeah... That's why I reminded him. He says he doesn't use charts or do tech analysis. That may be the reason he missed the fact that over 200pips in a day isn't that easy.

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My Demo Competition started today so far my result

thoughts for upcoming FOMC

(already posted in the other EURUSD thread, why 2 EURUSD threads in FF btw ?)


On the Fundamental side :

Inflation in the US remains low : YoY Core PCE Price Index (FED's preferred measure of inflation) is at 1.6%, well below FED's target (2%). As important, survey-based measures of LT inflation expectations keep falling. On the employment front, unemployment rate remains low. However last pay roll employment showed little changes and prior month's release was revised down. Business early indicators keep falling (Business confidence, Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, ...) with some already on the edge. Economic activity raised at a strong rate at previous Q (yoy 3.1%) but GDP print was boosted by technicalities to avoid the upcoming tariffs. Expectations for Q2 growth are <= 2%. On the international front, Trade wars, tariffs, protectionism, uncertainty are expected to weigh more and more on US economy.

=> Expecting no change in the rate decision but a very very dovish FED acknowledging the macro deterioration with plenty of revision downs in their economic projections and - the real deal - hinting a new shift in forward guidance , from neutral to cut bias, that will guarantee a rate cut as early as next meeting (July) if inflation keeps disappointing and flip in macro is confirmed.

As a quick reference for later, and ceteris paribus in EUR :

- a 50bp cut later in the year will unlock FA level 1.161x in EURUSD
- a 75bp cut later in the year will unlock FA level 1.191x in EURUSD

(That explains a lot Draghi's move yesterday)


On the Technical side :

- In EURUSD, smart money has already started to preempt FED's shift with a ST reversal on D1 (cf. charts below). A ST reversal in Dollar Index (DXY) was triggered as well. Current legs all across the board are just retrace to last break point (1.118x and 97.7x for reference in EURUSD and DXY).

- These reversals have already unlocked 1.144x in EURUSD and 95.7x in DXY as final target of ST swing trading FED's shift fact.

- For the MT, breaking up these levels (will probably need a cut fact for that), will trigger reversals on W1, unlocking as high as 1.191x in EURUSUD and as low as 92.6 in DXY (with extrem at 1.215x and 91.0x respectively)

EURUSD D1


EURUSD W1


DXY D1

demo is without emotion its completly diferent than real

The markets are on the look for a rate cut cycle from the FED, if it delivers, its going to be a game changer in my opinion, because we went from €/$ 1.40 in 2014 to 1.05 in 2015 on the back of FED-ECB central bank divergence, and this theme mantained the pair under pressure for most of 2015 and 2016.

You just need to work out who is going to be more aggressive, the FED or the ECB, normally the FED is more effective and faster than the ECB.

Ok,im holding long 1lot 1,1205 SL be +1 ,lets see what will happend

i need to improve my entries and exits.... these things killing my account

I'm out of all trades. Whatever the clowns want let them do with price. I will note it here, however, that smart money also lose. They can bet for a move up and the Fed disappoints them. Good luck to those in a trade.

a few more of these left before i double down on this bias veiw.

Took long 1.1209 Target 1.1243

what is LO price today?

61% reversal suggesting bear continuation. A bear day would also make sense in fundamental setting: markets are expecting a super dovish fed, there is no way they can deliver - let alone exceed the expectations, which is the only reason this would go up today.

People dont buy here.Sell under 1200

Why not sell not for few extra pips?

Hi Guys

If price settles around this area tomorrow just above 1.1200 I get subtle indications of bottoming. Fed funds rate in 1hr27 mins could see some volatility and possible spike down to my weekly sup 1 at 1.1642. One of the few news events I take note of. Also if we do swing to the upside it will not be without stop hunts.

Take care.

EUR/USD Failed Cypher pattern leads to a downtred

but if it cross 2305-ma 100 it can fly up.

Taking chances.... “BUY” usd on all pair. Id say EU will have a new low.

Nearest support is now at 1.1205 on M15..

Stay Green