The Swamp | Page 1848 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread
Attachments: The Swamp
Exit Attachments

The Swamp

  • #36,941
  • Jun 18, 2019 7:08pm Jun 18, 2019 7:08pm
Quoting axecap
{quote} Can you please explain what data leads you to this conclusion of "true price" .....thanks
It is simply volume adjusted price.

Just some fancy math - work I created to give me a pristine clear version of price.
  • #36,942
  • Jun 18, 2019 7:27pm Jun 18, 2019 7:27pm
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} It is simply volume adjusted price. Just some fancy math - work I created to give me a pristine clear version of price.
so historic volume at a particular price level indicates demand, which indicates true value?
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #36,943
  • Jun 18, 2019 7:36pm Jun 18, 2019 7:36pm
Quoting axecap
{quote} so historic volume at a particular price level indicates demand, which indicates true value?
First thing is to differentiate between buy and sell volume per period.

Then map this net volume to the total volume done so as to create unique price points.

Sometimes the true price leads ordinary, at other times it lags but ordinary price is always attracted to the true price.
  • #36,944
  • Jun 18, 2019 7:39pm Jun 18, 2019 7:39pm
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} First thing is to differentiate between buy and sell volume per period. Then map this net volume to the total volume done so as to create unique price points. Sometimes the true price leads ordinary, at other times it lags but ordinary price is always attracted to the true price.
interesting...thanks
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #36,945
  • Jun 18, 2019 7:39pm Jun 18, 2019 7:39pm
For NZDUSD, the true price as at the close of the last H1 candle is 0.65336 while ordinary price is 0.65357

I expect ordinary price to trade back below 0.65336 then re-test the EXACT level for the sell off to begin.
  • #36,946
  • Jun 18, 2019 7:41pm Jun 18, 2019 7:41pm
Quoting pipcenturion
For NZDUSD, the true price as at the close of the last H1 candle is 0.65336 while ordinary price is 0.65357 I expect ordinary price to trade back below 0.65336 then re-test the EXACT level for the sell off to begin.
Can you apply your theory to eurjpy?
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #36,947
  • Jun 18, 2019 7:43pm Jun 18, 2019 7:43pm
Quoting axecap
{quote} Can you apply your theory to eurjpy?
Yes, it works for all pairs.

Just give me a few minutes as I do the computations manually.
  • #36,948
  • Jun 18, 2019 8:11pm Jun 18, 2019 8:11pm
EURJPY (June 19, 2019)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4th period EURJPY.PNG Size: 13 KB
  • #36,949
  • Jun 18, 2019 8:19pm Jun 18, 2019 8:19pm
Quoting pipcenturion
EURJPY (June 19, 2019) {image}
interesting, thanks for your time...
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #36,950
  • Jun 18, 2019 8:23pm Jun 18, 2019 8:23pm
Quoting axecap
{quote} interesting, thanks for your time...
If you can be bothered, what do you see as true price EURJPY on the D1 or H4
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #36,951
  • Jun 18, 2019 8:55pm Jun 18, 2019 8:55pm
Quoting axecap
{quote} If you can be bothered, what do you see as true price EURJPY on the D1 or H4
Weekly: 123.854 (current week's true price)

Most recent support on weekly: 123.76

The true price suggest that there is still quite some upside to be done by this pair.
  • #36,952
  • Jun 18, 2019 9:05pm Jun 18, 2019 9:05pm
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Weekly: 123.854 (current week's true price) Most recent support on weekly: 123.76 The true price suggest that there is still quite some upside to be done by this pair.
Thanks again, I will watch with interest. I tend to trade shorter time frames but like to have a bigger picture view arrived at with a range of diverse analysis. I find it better to trade withe the bigger trend , even in smaller time frames. thanks again
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #36,953
  • Jun 18, 2019 9:07pm Jun 18, 2019 9:07pm
5th period, EURJPY H1

Notice that the true price has been lower than ordinary price thus far and is declining.

Let's see whether ordinary price can become lower than true price (at this point, the intra-day support will form) and buyers will begin to step in.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5th period EURJPY.PNG Size: 16 KB
  • #36,954
  • Jun 18, 2019 10:20pm Jun 18, 2019 10:20pm
Quoting pipcenturion
5th period, EURJPY H1 Notice that the true price has been lower than ordinary price thus far and is declining. Let's see whether ordinary price can become lower than true price (at this point, the intra-day support will form) and buyers will begin to step in. {image}
121.362 is now done...and found some resistance
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #36,955
  • Edited 11:40pm Jun 18, 2019 11:26pm | Edited 11:40pm
7th period EURJPY H1

Probable support forming at 121.311 (volume doesn't agree)

Better to see price traverse the true price

Let's see what the next period brings
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 7th period EURJPY.PNG Size: 19 KB
  • #36,956
  • Jun 19, 2019 12:04am Jun 19, 2019 12:04am
8th period EURJPY

Normal price has traversed the true price.

Now, a support can form

Aggressive traders can start buying immediately
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 8th period EURJPY.PNG Size: 20 KB
  • #36,957
  • Jun 19, 2019 12:08am Jun 19, 2019 12:08am
Once a H1 candle closes ABOVE 121.262 the buy has been confirmed.

If it closes too far above 121.262 one can place a buy limit at 121.262 (make room for spread plus one pip)

Your trade once executed will have the least possible draw down.

Enjoy the trade!
  • #36,958
  • Jun 19, 2019 12:32am Jun 19, 2019 12:32am
Quoting pipcenturion
Once a H1 candle closes ABOVE 121.262 the buy has been confirmed. If it closes too far above 121.262 one can place a buy limit at 121.262 (make room for spread plus one pip) Your trade once executed will have the least possible draw down. Enjoy the trade!
I sent you a PM based on your trading style but it's okay if you didnt feel like replying. Maybe I can still try to make some sense out of the little you have posted here.
  • #36,959
  • Jun 19, 2019 1:21am Jun 19, 2019 1:21am
looking for shorts on EU, longs on USDCHF, and longs on NU...for now...see what else transpires....gl
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #36,960
  • Jun 19, 2019 2:36am Jun 19, 2019 2:36am
10th period EURJPY H1

Intra - day support has been confirmed at 121.262

A H1 candle close ABOVE its corresponding true price is what we await.

Note: This is the conservative entry. Once the condition above has been fulfilled, you can take the buy trade with peace of mind knowing that the support (volume adjusted) has got your back.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 10th period EURJPY.PNG Size: 25 KB
43 traders viewing now