The Really Useless Thread | Page 7877 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #157,521
  • May 20, 2019 9:58am May 20, 2019 9:58am
Quoting Replicant
In Juve : {quote} No brainer really imo, 1.42xx was the obvious one to fade, 1.25xx cleared and holding so far but main dish is still at 1.03xx/0.97xx imo (with the complete reset of Ronaldo's hype at 0.85xx) {image}

In MIL:JUVE
pullback to breakout ahead of summer transfer window

Any "good" news (by Juve standards) on that front (coach ?) could push the retrace further, as high as 1.60x ; however bears would still have the upper hand

adding/loading areas imo : here in the 1.4x and around 1.60x
still aiming 1.0x/0.9x

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: juve-d1-20-05-2019.png Size: 108 KB
  • #157,522
  • May 20, 2019 10:23am May 20, 2019 10:23am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Reversal down finally triggered in ES and 279x cleared : => Top (293x/4x) is now confirmed => plotted fib is now valid (price action wise). => 2916 and 2826 are rejection/break down levels. Next target I have is 272x (any retrace leg in between is good to fade at 291x max 293x/4x). Tariffs II on Chinese goods triggered but Tariffs III (full) on hold till G20 as it stands. But there are potential Tariffs II on EU goods (cars) coming, deal talks expected to end soon. {image} {image}
Nothing new imo on WW equities. Risk off looks still here.

Indices hammered after retracing to the (50% +/- 2 x sigma) area.

ES & CAC (retrace in CAC is superb) :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: es-d1-20-05-2019.png Size: 98 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cac-d1-20-05-2019.png Size: 79 KB
  • #157,523
  • May 20, 2019 10:56am May 20, 2019 10:56am
Quoting Replicant
... Intermediate target in UJ from the top cleared at 109.9x (continuation down trigger) though. Next TP planned at 108.5x (MT flip), and for later 106.3x (MT Bottom). {image}
UJ, main risk off indicator, hold 109.9x on W1 (continuation down trigger) last week
extension has shifted the trigger to 109.0x now though

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj-w1-20-05-2019.png Size: 82 KB


On D1 :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj-d1-20-05-2019.png Size: 58 KB
  • #157,524
  • May 21, 2019 3:09am May 21, 2019 3:09am
am selling eur/usd for 50pips as you can see the chart bellow tp 1.11118 sl just 10 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1 ade.png Size: 30 KB
bakare
  • #157,525
  • May 23, 2019 5:41am May 23, 2019 5:41am
Quoting Replicant
In EURUSD, D1 looks heavy. Bulls need to break up SH 1.132x. Until then, shorts should prevailed imo (for the bottom 1.112x and beyond). {image} On W1, the breakdown has shifted the potential reversal up from 1.182x to 1.144x. But, if we break down current SL, I don't see a lot of supports in this TF before 1.09/1.08 . {image}
=> 1.112x cleared.

Quoting Replicant
... Intraday wise, 1.122x/3x looks the one to fade now ...
=> Bulls have never managed to close above 1.122x/3x since last month breakdown, price simply capped by last rejection.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-d1-23-05-2019.png Size: 75 KB


Below, on D1 I have 1.108x and 1.102x, and on higher TF 1.098x (FA level) 1.095x (TA level which looks like a 'magic' level).
DXY hasn't still yet hit the pending & major imo 98.70.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy-m1-23-05-2019.png Size: 87 KB


Not playing shorts below 1.112x though. Looking to build a bull MT position at these levels. MT & LT are still very bullish FA wise imo.

Sure ST need to clear some uncertainties : european parliament elections (uneventful expected/populism plague to win at best the same jester role it has for years), brexit uncertainty still weighing, macro still struggling but we had car tariffs on hold, strong overshoot in inflation (the only ECB mandate), last print being wide above ECB expectations for 2019, sure that's only a single print so far but it's clear the tightening labour market (as other figures show) is fueling it, cars industry in Germany is still struggling to digest new environmental norms but that is inline with 2019 expectations and Germany economy is expecting to find foot by Q3/Q4 2019, meanwhile France keeps printing very decent number via consumer spending boost & Macron structural reforms (full pay-off expectations are for end of 2019). But more important are macro data in the US expected to flip, I'm expecting next quarter annualized GDP print below 2% at 1.8% max.
Aiming 1.191x minimum by end of 2019.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-w1-23-05-2019.png Size: 104 KB
  • #157,526
  • May 23, 2019 9:00am May 23, 2019 9:00am
Horrible US PMI, big undershoot and on the brink to contract
In synch here !

ES, UJ, DXY, EU...
  • #157,527
  • May 23, 2019 11:10am May 23, 2019 11:10am
Quoting Replicant
Not playing shorts below 1.112x though. Looking to build a bull MT position at these levels. MT & LT are still very bullish FA wise imo. Sure ST need to clear some uncertainties [...] But more important are macro data in the US expected to flip, I'm expecting next quarter annualized GDP print below 2% at 1.8% max. Aiming 1.191x minimum by end of 2019. {image}
Besides the MT swing in EU to 1.191x, betting now on a ST swing via smart money smelling the change and riding US Macro data flip expectations (all driven by WW slowdown triggered by DT trade war I (Jan 2018) and II (May 2019))

==> 1.122x ==> 1.131x => 1.144x

As said before, 1.144x is key on W1 (MT reversal up if taken)

There is a nice stoch signal on D1 and something that looks like "a bar is a bar ..." on H4 taking 1.1188
  • #157,528
  • May 26, 2019 3:32pm May 26, 2019 3:32pm
Quoting Replicant
... european parliament elections (uneventful expected/populism plague to win at best the same jester role it has for years)...
Inline, uneventful, populists/anti-euro parties remain a minority
  • #157,529
  • May 31, 2019 9:58am May 31, 2019 9:58am
And risk-off continues.. UJ in synch.

Quoting Replicant
On a side note, USDJPY looks very well aligned with ES (risk on/risk off), nearing its MT top. 112.4x looks like the magic area in this TF (last broken SH + last break down point + fib 78.6) {image} D1 leaves more margin though : bulls breaking up 112.1x will unlock 112.9x/113.1x imo But it might be only a wick in W1 then. {image}
Quoting Replicant
... Intermediate target in UJ from the top cleared at 109.9x (continuation down trigger) though. Next TP planned at 108.5x (MT flip), and for later 106.3x (MT Bottom). {image}
=> Clearing 108.5x, second target of the swing from 112 handle

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj-w1-31-05-2019.png Size: 82 KB
  • #157,530
  • May 31, 2019 10:10am May 31, 2019 10:10am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Sitting tight here. I haven't TP anything yet in ES. Extension from 288x to 286x but no reversal down so far. I think we just need the end of trade war truce fact (as it stands, it will be next friday tariffs) to break down. I have first TP planned at 279x (ST flip), then 272x (W1 continuation down trigger) and for later 262x (ST Bottom).
Wave in ES keeps unfolding. Still aiming 272x as second target.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: es-d1-31-05-2019.png Size: 124 KB
  • #157,531
  • May 31, 2019 10:15am May 31, 2019 10:15am
272x in ES is key on W1 :
Reversal/continuation down will be triggered in this TF if the level is taken (meaning MT Top set and any retrace very fadable at the usual PA levels)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: es-w1-31-05-2019.png Size: 83 KB
  • #157,532
  • May 31, 2019 10:33am May 31, 2019 10:33am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Besides the MT swing in EU to 1.191x, betting now on a ST swing via smart money smelling the change and riding US Macro data flip expectations (all driven by WW slowdown triggered by DT trade war I (Jan 2018) and II (May 2019)) ==> 1.122x ==> 1.131x => 1.144x As said before, 1.144x is key on W1 (MT reversal up if taken) There is a nice stoch signal on D1 and something that looks like "a bar is a bar ..." on H4 taking 1.1188

Very uneventful week in EU.
Bad luck or simply bad call : TP1 1.122x of ST swing was missed by a few ticks (1.1215 for reference) and price is now back to square one.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-d1-31-05-2019.png Size: 80 KB


Both ST and MT swings remain in the starting blocks, but with the stable genius keeping cornering his own people and economy (in addition to bullying the whole world), it just looks like a matter of time.

Sure, giving the WW context, ECB will play low profile but FED has just far more margin to ease than any other CBs, and its mandate is far more binding than ECB's one (growth+employment+inflation Vs inflation only) meaning USD will win mechanically any potential race to the bottom.

Following the last developments on the Trade Front plus the last faltering PMI, I am becoming a perma bear in USD for the next 2 years (minimum).

RIP USD retrace (April 2018 - May 2019)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy-m1-31-05-2019.png Size: 85 KB


Shortcircuits/downside factors in EUR are cars tariffs risk (decision postponed to Dec 2019), brexit uncertainty (final outcome expected next October) and to lesser extend Italy deficit (that one looks soft (IT10Y) because very expected imo, posturizing only there ?)
  • #157,533
  • May 31, 2019 11:55am May 31, 2019 11:55am
Quoting Replicant
... Shortcircuits/downside factors in EUR are ... and to lesser extend Italy deficit (that one looks soft (IT10Y) because very expected imo, posturizing only there ?)
IT10Y quick FA Map :

(last news on Italy's deficit had very soft impact ; that's why I'm more leaning towards "noise and posturing" here rather than any serious FA change for EUR)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: it10y-d1-31-05-2019.png Size: 75 KB
  • #157,534
  • May 31, 2019 4:26pm May 31, 2019 4:26pm
EURUSD Monthly

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-m1-31-05-2019.png Size: 52 KB



EURUSD Weekly

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-w1-31-05-2019.png Size: 105 KB
  • #157,535
  • Jun 3, 2019 12:16pm Jun 3, 2019 12:16pm
Quoting Replicant
Horrible US PMI, big undershoot and on the brink to contract In synch here ! ES, UJ, DXY, EU...
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Besides the MT swing in EU to 1.191x, betting now on a ST swing via smart money smelling the change and riding US Macro data flip expectations (all driven by WW slowdown triggered by DT trade war I (Jan 2018) and II (May 2019)) ==> 1.122x ==> 1.131x => 1.144x ...
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Very uneventful week in EU. Bad luck or simply bad call : TP1 1.122x of ST swing was missed by a few ticks (1.1215 for reference) and price is now back to square one. {image} Both ST and MT swings remain in the starting blocks, but with the stable genius keeping cornering his own people and economy (in addition to bullying the whole world), it just looks like a matter of time.
Early indicators keep coughing in the US ...

In EURUSD, clearing first target of ST swing @ 1.122x

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-d1-03-06-2019.png Size: 81 KB
  • #157,536
  • Jun 3, 2019 2:45pm Jun 3, 2019 2:45pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} In ES, max expected pullback 291x wiped out but still holding my shorts : I don't buy AT ALL that last US GDP. 3.2% is a lol as almost 40%/50% of it is due to temporary and technical reasons (mainly on Trade front, technicalities to avoid tariffs) Sitting tight ! Still aiming 262x by end of June at the earliest, by September at the latest. {image}
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Sitting tight here. I haven't TP anything yet in ES. Extension from 288x to 286x but no reversal down so far. I think we just need the end of trade war truce fact (as it stands, it will be next friday tariffs) to break down. I have first TP planned at 279x (ST flip), then 272x (W1 continuation down trigger) and for later 262x (ST Bottom) {image}
Second target cleared in ES @ 272x

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: es-d1-03-06-2019.png Size: 124 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: es-w1-03-06-2019.png Size: 88 KB
  • #157,537
  • Jun 4, 2019 8:30am Jun 4, 2019 8:30am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} {quote} Second target cleared in ES @ 272x {image} {image}
Check on 2799/805 before a break of 2726 is my thinking here. Maybe max 2844 if some light news on trade or some other catalyst.
  • #157,538
  • Jun 4, 2019 10:31am Jun 4, 2019 10:31am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Check on 2799/805 before a break of 2726 is my thinking here. Maybe max 2844 if some light news on trade or some other catalyst.
I have these levels above :

D1
continuation down 2799
reversal down + SH rejection 2826
SH rejection 2832.5
SH 288x

W1
SH 282x
SH rejection 2889
  • #157,539
  • Jun 4, 2019 11:28am Jun 4, 2019 11:28am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} I have these levels above : D1 continuation down 2799 reversal down + SH rejection 2826 SH rejection 2832.5 SH 288x W1 SH 282x SH rejection 2889
Right. I just meant price should "check" on that level before the break. Not that you should. Was a confusing way to say that.
For me just in terms of last W/M breakdown levels.
  • #157,540
  • Jun 4, 2019 1:22pm Jun 4, 2019 1:22pm
Quoting Replicant
..... RIP USD retrace (April 2018 - May 2019) ....

Given current macro data differential ...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: US EZ Services PMI Jan 2014 - Mai 2019.png Size: 27 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: US EZ Manufacturing PMI Jan 2014 - Mai 2019.png Size: 25 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: US EZ Inflation Jan 2014 - Mai 2019.png Size: 26 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: US EZ Unemployment Rate 2010 -2019.png Size: 17 KB


... current rates differential just looks unsustainable

Attached Image


Swing trading = ride expectations/changes in expectations

(data from tradingeconomics)
117 traders viewing now