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False Prophets

  • #1,961
  • May 23, 2019 9:49am May 23, 2019 9:49am
Quoting Hutch
{quote} The problem with pivots is that there are many of them with different calculation methods this is why I never used them.
Doesn't really matter what the calculation is, the problem is the hope (probability) that the price will bounce at certain arbitrary level, even though there might be some logical reasoning behind it, but still just bunch of lines. I am sure if you come with your own fib levels and plot it on the chart, price will stop briefly or bounce at one of those levels. Should your trades be based on that, personally I wouldn't but if it works for others why not.
  • #1,962
  • Edited 10:07am May 23, 2019 9:57am | Edited 10:07am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} More accurately, trading is a game of statistics. Dice, cards, and roulette are games of probabilities.
yep. FX is driven by speculation, mostly.

no one knows for sure what is going to happen to these extremely liquid markets... not even central banks.

I see it as game of skill like Poker, where you study your opponents and adapt to them. it's basically about exploiting unskilled opponents..
  • #1,963
  • May 23, 2019 9:52pm May 23, 2019 9:52pm
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} yep. FX is driven by speculation, mostly. no one knows for sure what is going to happen to these extremely liquid markets... not even central banks. I see it as game of skill like Poker, where you study your opponents and adapt to them. it's basically about exploiting unskilled opponents..
Not entirely true in accordance with this article:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-e...-idUSKCN1SM0XS
  • #1,964
  • Edited May 24, 2019 11:56am May 23, 2019 10:48pm | Edited May 24, 2019 11:56am
Quoting Hutch
{quote} Not entirely true in accordance with this article: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-e...-idUSKCN1SM0XS
Oh I read that article. big players have definitely the power to rig the market but it is illegal and as we c there are serious consequences..
  • #1,965
  • May 24, 2019 2:27pm May 24, 2019 2:27pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} The problem with pivots is that there are many of them with different calculation methods this is why I never used them.
But only 2 of them is very popular like standard and Fib Pivot Point. Most people follow any one of them.
  • #1,966
  • May 25, 2019 4:36am May 25, 2019 4:36am
Quoting salimc
{quote} But only 2 of them is very popular like standard and Fib Pivot Point. Most people follow any one of them.
may be popular but may not be profitable in the long run.
this is just my opinion.
  • #1,967
  • May 25, 2019 2:35pm May 25, 2019 2:35pm
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} may be popular but may not be profitable in the long run. this is just my opinion.
different person with different observation, that's very natural
  • #1,968
  • May 25, 2019 3:11pm May 25, 2019 3:11pm
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} may be popular but may not be profitable in the long run. this is just my opinion.
it depends if it's popular among retailers or winning fund managers.
I know nothing about pivots but of course jsut drawing arbitrary llines is crazy lol
  • #1,969
  • May 25, 2019 5:34pm May 25, 2019 5:34pm
The problem with pivots, like all technical methods, it's based on hindsight and not market drivers. That being said there is some merit on taking average ranges and deriving levels within those ranges where there Is scope for reversion (the only reason they work in low volatility environments). Unfortunately like all technical methods who are designed to work in specific conditions, markets change and volatility can extend moves for longer, well past levels that operated in the previous <N> periods averages. This means a trader has to be on their game and realise what's happening and not view it as a statistic. The information that can provide that context is for the most part ignored or poorly understood leading to losses that can undo weeks of work or even blow accounts.
  • #1,970
  • May 25, 2019 6:51pm May 25, 2019 6:51pm
Quoting EcoTrader
The problem with pivots, like all technical methods, it's based on hindsight and not market drivers. That being said there is some merit on taking average ranges and deriving levels within those ranges where there Is scope for reversion (the only reason they work in low volatility environments). Unfortunately like all technical methods who are designed to work in specific conditions, markets change and volatility can extend moves for longer, well past levels that operated in the previous <N> periods averages. This means a trader has to be on their...
So now all TA methods don't work long term? Not only are you very arrogant you are hilarious, peace.
Ardua Ad Astra Per
  • #1,971
  • May 25, 2019 8:39pm May 25, 2019 8:39pm
Quoting EcoTrader
The problem with pivots, like all technical methods, it's based on hindsight and not market drivers. That being said there is some merit on taking average ranges and deriving levels within those ranges where there Is scope for reversion (the only reason they work in low volatility environments). Unfortunately like all technical methods who are designed to work in specific conditions, markets change and volatility can extend moves for longer, well past levels that operated in the previous <N> periods averages. This means a trader has to be on their...
I'm sorry that your lack of understanding of technicals or whatever you call technical analysis has led you to a life of news reading and claiming it is all in the news. I am so glad on the other hand that all your news, short term or long term get distilled into the technicals that you don't understand, therefore, news takes a second place to technicals. News when you see it is old news. Don't tell me your example of pivots are news free events that happen in a vacuume by themselves along with all other related so called technicals.

Can you for once make a trade suggestion based on your news stuff? Call a trade such as buy EUR now or sell JPY now based on news?

All you do is come here and say technicals are crap and news is great. I make money every freaking day using technicals, so you can stuff it.

I am sick of reading that technicals don't work by the failed ex technical users. Just because you somehow interpret news into tradable opportunities, supposedly and you are clueless about other tools, that doesn't mean technicals can't be interpreted by those who have the know how and the facilities to comprehend and put them to use.

Also. a few weeks ago, you announced it was your last post on the forum. What happened?
  • #1,972
  • May 25, 2019 11:26pm May 25, 2019 11:26pm
Quoting OutThere
{quote} Also. a few weeks ago, you announced it was your last post on the forum. What happened?
It's called ego, just another reason I find this place so funny, it's full of them, egotistical maniacs.
Ardua Ad Astra Per
  • #1,973
  • May 26, 2019 1:20am May 26, 2019 1:20am
Quoting mistakesr
{quote} So now all TA methods don't work long term? Not only are you very arrogant you are hilarious, peace.


I'm not a FA expert. actually I don't believe in "experts" at all.. nobody has the magic wand.

these FA traders on forums are great, they get married to a position and add to losses..

big players can do that hey they have practically UNLIMITED FUNDS...

IMO FA may have some value in the LONG term.. eg. if you trade very small but you still need stop losses if you don't want to blow the account.
  • #1,974
  • May 26, 2019 1:20am May 26, 2019 1:20am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} it depends if it's popular among retailers or winning fund managers. I know nothing about pivots but of course jsut drawing arbitrary llines is crazy lol
unfortunately, with this method, the probability of the probabilities is small.
so I don't use this method.
  • #1,975
  • Edited 2:58am May 26, 2019 2:14am | Edited 2:58am
Quoting mistakesr
{quote} So now all TA methods don't work long term? Not only are you very arrogant you are hilarious, peace.
Really, go ask Davit how his peeps are doing this month and last when volatility spiked and suddenly his thread has gotten very quiet with losses being discussed. Instead of throwing bullshit statements like you have here, why don't you go off to your little brain cell and find something constructive to say.it's hilarious that your master has absolutely zero idea how to read fundamentals outside of the calendar and headlines. Just recently he said PM May resignation will be good for £. If that were the case why then is his position still in drawdown and not exploded as he stated it would. I tell you why mudflap, Boris is in the lead to take over and nobody likes him. But go ahead moron, say it like you mean it.
  • #1,976
  • May 26, 2019 2:17am May 26, 2019 2:17am
Quoting OutThere
{quote} I'm sorry that your lack of understanding of technicals or whatever you call technical analysis has led you to a life of news reading and claiming it is all in the news. I am so glad on the other hand that all your news, short term or long term get distilled into the technicals that you don't understand, therefore, news takes a second place to technicals. News when you see it is old news. Don't tell me your example of pivots are news free events that happen in a vacuume by themselves along with all other related so called technicals. Can...

Hahahaha, lack understanding. You only need to look at broker statistics to see the magnitude of failure. I'm sorry if you have bought into the arguably retarded idea that historical prices have any relevance on future direction. Don't tell me that banks who spend vast amounts of money on news terminals and teams of analysts are all just wasting their time and money when they could simply be looking at hindsight to yield the same outcome. Only a fucking retard believes this and I guess that answers who you are.
  • #1,978
  • May 26, 2019 2:21am May 26, 2019 2:21am
Quoting mistakesr
{quote} It's called ego, just another reason I find this place so funny, it's full of them, egotistical maniacs.
Its called knowledge, something your brain cell will never comprehend
  • #1,979
  • May 26, 2019 2:34am May 26, 2019 2:34am
Quoting EcoTrader
Hidden
this guy should get banned IMO it's ok to forgive insults 10 times but not 100.
  • #1,980
  • May 26, 2019 2:38am May 26, 2019 2:38am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} the FA traders who trade short term trade the REACTION to the news not the news itself. ask any experienced news trader WHO TRADE CFDS, martingalers like you are irrelevant. btw this guy should get banned IMO it's ok to forgive insults 10 times but not 100.
What do you think the reaction is? People just stupidly jumping on board. Retail traders account for 3% of daily fx volume, we don't have the buying power to move the market. You know Jack shit about fundamentals (so stop pretending you know anything about it) and you can't handle the fact that you can't even argue the point. All you have is this pathetic statement you have just thown in. The forum should ban idiots like you for being uneducated.

Go look at the thread I started idiot. Week after week of live calls and a growing account. What do you have to offer besides pointless uneducated uninformed bullshit.


By the way, you have me on ignore yet here you are responding. It says a lot about your ability to contain that stupidness to control your emotions. What's the point of ignoring someone of you carry on talking to them? It's beyond stupid.
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