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The Swamp

  • #35,581
  • May 24, 2019 3:51pm May 24, 2019 3:51pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} its been heading down for almost 1.5 years. I'm sure we got diehard hedgers with longs for that long. And diehard shorters just reaching a profit yesterday. After holding shorts for 2 years. At least the shorters collected the swap.
yes..swap is unreal.... you can't earn that kind of interest /return putting your money in bank..
  • #35,582
  • May 24, 2019 3:52pm May 24, 2019 3:52pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Just notice your chart on left about sentiment.. I notice clients long 54% vs 46% clients short.. I guess retail are buying euro, Using contrarian theory , we have to do the opposite... we will see next week.....
I think we have to grind through a couple weeks of bull mode until we get up to that fat D1 supply.

Everything about this recent bull move stinks. Most likely a 100 pip relief rally in preparation for another slap down.
  • #35,583
  • May 24, 2019 3:52pm May 24, 2019 3:52pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} that's the problem with no central (official data) in forex. most people think their broker is superior. the same with closes. No official close open. It sucks when close at times.
Seems this tells a better story. I think this caused the straight spike. These things change on a dime; on Thursday the opposite was the case. Below is that of 4mins ago:
Attached Image
  • #35,584
  • May 24, 2019 3:53pm May 24, 2019 3:53pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Yep. But from the available sources, myfxbook has some decent amount of traders. And at least they have no reason to be biased, unlike the brokers, who can post anything that suits them.
True, most sources reporting shorts vs longs. Have a broker supplying the info. The only way to get the info is from brokers. Correct me if wrong. Where could myfxbook possibly get the info if not from broker or brokers? The source should be detailed somewhere.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #35,585
  • May 24, 2019 3:57pm May 24, 2019 3:57pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} True, most sources reporting shorts vs longs. Have a broker supplying the info. The only way to get the info is from brokers. Correct me if wrong. Where could myfxbook possibly get the info if not from broker or brokers? The source should be detailed somewhere.
Myfxbook is simply for monitoring statistics of the traders, so they can easily pull the exact amount of shorts/longs, lots and everything else that is being tracked.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #35,586
  • May 24, 2019 4:00pm May 24, 2019 4:00pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} you are right.. the similar in fxblue too..retail more shorts than longs.. {image}
Interresting...so the 2 biggest tracking websites show similar data...and brokers show the exact opposite.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #35,587
  • May 24, 2019 4:00pm May 24, 2019 4:00pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Myfxbook is simply for monitoring statistics of the traders, so they can easily pull the exact amount of shorts/longs, lots and everything else that is being tracked.
They monitor people using their platform, correct? Does institutions participate in myfxbook? Or is it mostly retailers? See my point..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #35,588
  • May 24, 2019 4:00pm May 24, 2019 4:00pm
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} Seems this tells a better story. I think this caused the straight spike. These things change on a dime; on Thursday the opposite was the case. Below is that of 4mins ago: {image}
thank you Mitib...so 5 out of 7 retail brokers , I can see retail is mostly long ... I don't count FX factory and myfxbook since counting those will be double counting...they are clients in those brokers.......

Going forward would you post this info for us when you think its good timing... not every day..just whenever you think we need to be notified...
  • #35,589
  • May 24, 2019 4:02pm May 24, 2019 4:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} They monitor people using their platform, correct? Does institutions participate in myfxbook? Or is it mostly retailers? See my point..
I think its both. I don't know a bigger tracking website, there probably isn't any, so even for big boys its a good way to show some proven(and trusted) history to clients. Compared to FF, which shows the sentiment of about 600 traders...myfxbook shows maybe tens of thousands.

This is a good bookmark:
https://www.myfxbook.com/community/outlook

Total funds being tracked = 4 billion.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #35,590
  • May 24, 2019 4:07pm May 24, 2019 4:07pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} thank you Mitib...so 5 out of 7 retail brokers , I can see retail is mostly long ... I don't count FX factory and myfxbook since counting those will be double counting...they are clients in those brokers....... Going forward would you post this info for us when you think its good timing... not every day..just whenever you think we need to be notified...
Of course. Not a problem at all.
  • #35,591
  • May 24, 2019 4:07pm May 24, 2019 4:07pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} I think its both. I don't know a bigger tracking website, there probably isn't any, so even for big boys its a good way to show some proven(and trusted) history to clients. Compared to FF, which shows the sentiment of about 600 traders...myfxbook shows maybe tens of thousands.
Bigger dont make it correct. Institutions are rather secretive. They make a point of buying or sell in smaller increments to keep their intentions somewhat secretive.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #35,592
  • May 24, 2019 4:11pm May 24, 2019 4:11pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Bigger dont make it correct. Institutions are rather secretive. They make a point of buying or sell in smaller increments to keep their intentions somewhat secretive.
Yeah, I know what you are getting at.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #35,593
  • May 24, 2019 4:12pm May 24, 2019 4:12pm
The problem with retail positioning charts is they are not reflective of fresh retail sentiment. They reflect historically bad trading decisions.

Here's the OANDA client Open Positions summary.

https://www1.oanda.com/forex-trading...rex-order-book

A large percentage of these retail longs are 100 - 800 pips above price and massively underwater, most likely going back months. Are these traders bullish or just trapped on the wrong side?

I don't think you can extract much from it, except that retail generally have no idea what they are doing.
  • #35,594
  • May 24, 2019 4:12pm May 24, 2019 4:12pm
They also have hundreds of analist. Just because a Goldman analyst says one thing. It dont mean the other 199 are not thinking the opposite.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #35,595
  • May 24, 2019 4:16pm May 24, 2019 4:16pm
Out of here.. have a great long weekend....
  • #35,596
  • May 24, 2019 4:19pm May 24, 2019 4:19pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Yeah, I know what you are getting at.
My point is ...An institution joining, may not have your best interest in mind. It could skew the numbers. W/o a central price and time stamp. You dont know whats real. The Dow has a central. And even there Dark pools can report deals late. The close price may not be real.

If you ask a room full of fat women, "does the bikini make me look fat?". They may have a skewed answer compared to a room full of super models. The answer may be different for a room full of drunk men.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #35,597
  • May 24, 2019 4:36pm May 24, 2019 4:36pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} My point is ...An institution joining, may not have your best interest in mind. It could skew the numbers. W/o a central price and time stamp. You dont know whats real. The Dow has a central. And even there Dark pools can report deals late. The close price may not be real. If you ask a room full of fat women, "does the bikini make me look fat?". They may have a skewed answer compared to a room full of super models. The answer may be different for a room full of drunk men.
lol... only you can imagine that....
  • #35,598
  • May 24, 2019 4:40pm May 24, 2019 4:40pm
monday levels... elections is a wildcard.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #35,599
  • May 24, 2019 5:18pm May 24, 2019 5:18pm
Quoting gatorinla
They also have hundreds of analist. Just because a Goldman analyst says one thing. It dont mean the other 199 are not thinking the opposite.
IG group owns the website daily fx. So the sentiment you see on there represents what their clients are doing - which reflects only a fraction of the retail market imo.

I would only take that data with a pinch of salt. Cheers
  • #35,600
  • May 24, 2019 7:24pm May 24, 2019 7:24pm
Quoting gatorinla
monday levels... elections is a wildcard. {image}
the 12h has crossed below the day now.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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