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  • #601
  • May 21, 2019 10:44am May 21, 2019 10:44am
Quoting FXsniper111
{quote} Ore a different pairs all together with a lot lower AWERAGE ADR... EDIT and there you where out at BE cubby when you could have banked almost 500 dollars recovery at peak..
Ok so found out how to use a MT4 HST file for GBPCAD .. So:
Currency pair : GBPCAD
Period : 8/21/2007 - now
TimeFrame : 30min
inital account size : $1000
lot size: 0.0001 (fixed, not increasing it)

After optimizing the settings we get $121k profit with a max drawdown of 0.55%
One thing tho.. look at the max time/trade.. One trade took 1262 days to complete !!
Guess we need to optimize for this as well.
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  • #602
  • Edited 11:11am May 21, 2019 11:01am | Edited 11:11am
Quoting ebeckers
{quote} Ok so found out how to use a MT4 HST file for GBPCAD .. So: Currency pair : GBPCAD Period : 8/21/2007 - now TimeFrame : 30min inital account size : $1000 lot size: 0.0001 (fixed, not increasing it) After optimizing the settings we get $121k profit with a max drawdown of 0.55% One thing tho.. look at the max time/trade.. One trade took 1262 days to complete !! Guess we need to optimize for this as well. {image}
What kind of TP are you running with theese tests??? do you have the possibility in Ninja trder to run multiple pairs on backtest if you have i would really like to run some on some groups of pairs becuse in mt4 you cant...

Edit:The entrys of the EA are very good almost all of my 10-12 closes on demo went straight into profit and didnt look back-...
Insanityoing same ting over expecting different results..Einstein
  • #603
  • May 21, 2019 11:11am May 21, 2019 11:11am
Quoting ebeckers
I still believe the strategy has great potential. However we need to find the 'best' settings which give a nice profit AND a low max drawdown E.g. i've been doing some backtests as you can see here Asset : ES-mini futures (in ninja trader 8) Timeframe : 5 min. chart Period : 300 days As you can see, with the most aggressive settings we get a net profit of $740k, but the drawdown is 67% After optimising the strategy for max profit & min drawdown.. we get a net profit of $440k and a drawdown of 5.18% Now this is just 1 test and we should not...
This is the way to go. Futures.
Truth is like poetry. And most people f*cking hate poetry.
  • #604
  • May 21, 2019 11:13am May 21, 2019 11:13am
Quoting FXsniper111
{quote} What kind of TP are you running with theese tests??? do you have the possibility in Ninja trder to run multiple pairs on backtest if you have i would really like to run some on some groups of pairs becuse in mt4 you cant... Edit:The entrys of the EA are very good almost all of my 10-12 closes on demo went straight into profit and didnt look back-...
See screenshot.. for GBPCAd : 116 pips
and backtest multiple pairs simultanously ?... should be doable
  • #605
  • May 21, 2019 11:47am May 21, 2019 11:47am
[quote=ptradecalls;12283314I have been trading for over a decade, I know exactly what I am about to share would be highly valuable and should be considered looking into by the coder of this EA. Please look at my attached chart below and this is using one of the entries from your EA. You have totally missed how an inside bar should be traded, which is in direction to its breakout, now it is difficult to achieve this sort of entry alone without alot of false entries if trying to automate it, so I applaud the use of the RMI, which I do use also, but you have mixed it all up. Chart Below. RMI below 30 with an inside bar breakout below is a perfect SELL entry, so I think you should switch your trading entry rules. Please if you do not understand this concept I can go more in dept if I have the time. just thought i'd share this. If all trades opened have been taken into opposite direction, you would not have any silly draw down. So I advice try changing entry rules to opposite directions, its as simple as that. I'm sure the smart guys would also try to code this for themselves. Enjoy guys. {image}[/quote]
Your analysis is valid for trend trading, not for this EA's attempt at range trading. The #1 problem with bounded indicators such as RMI is viewing the extreme regions as "overbought" and "oversold". Why does the TMI make a bee line from running for an extended period maxed out to the opposite extreme and flatten nearly at 0? Because there is high DOWN MOMENTUM! And if the indicator is now at its extreme, it is IMPOSSIBLE to go below 0, so as DOWN momentum continues, the indicator can do nothing except crank along at 0. So we should be SELLING this strong down move, NOT buying on grid steps. There should be no buying until some kind of signal that UP MOMENTUM is now in effect (or at least a signal that the down momentum has become very weak).
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #606
  • May 21, 2019 12:00pm May 21, 2019 12:00pm
Quoting ebeckers
{quote} Ok so found out how to use a MT4 HST file for GBPCAD .. So: Currency pair : GBPCAD Period : 8/21/2007 - now TimeFrame : 30min inital account size : $1000 lot size: 0.0001 (fixed, not increasing it) After optimizing the settings we get $121k profit with a max drawdown of 0.55% One thing tho.. look at the max time/trade.. One trade took 1262 days to complete !! Guess we need to optimize for this as well. {image}

Great work and yes, the 1262 days trade is way too long.
Also maybe change it to dynamic lotsize and see the profit then or something. Should be very interesting.
  • #607
  • May 21, 2019 12:10pm May 21, 2019 12:10pm
Quoting ebeckers
{quote} Ok so found out how to use a MT4 HST file for GBPCAD .. So: Currency pair : GBPCAD Period : 8/21/2007 - now TimeFrame : 30min inital account size : $1000 lot size: 0.0001 (fixed, not increasing it) After optimizing the settings we get $121k profit with a max drawdown of 0.55% One thing tho.. look at the max time/trade.. One trade took 1262 days to complete !! Guess we need to optimize for this as well. {image}
Then with 50 pips how much would that help of days in trade??And run a test with AU/EU and EAUD basket with 50 pips tp and 5 ore 10% cutoff if you can???
Insanityoing same ting over expecting different results..Einstein
  • #608
  • May 21, 2019 12:43pm May 21, 2019 12:43pm
Quoting SimonDK
{quote} You say that the RMI indicator below 30 points to an opportunity to sell. Isn't it the exact opposite? That the market is oversold, and more likely to turn?
He is correct--SELLING when RMI goes "oversold" is the better option. Why? Think MOMENTUM. Price moving down, down , down is like a massive train running at high speed down a hill. RMI shoots down to the bottom then stays there. If RMI were not restricted to stay between 0-100, then you would see it continue to go down, just like you see the train going down at high speed. Now when the brakes are put on, does the train instantly stop? Of course not! Even with the brakes applied, THE TRAIN KEEPS GOING DOWN because of the MOMENTUM. Same with price. Even when fewer sellers are active and more buyers become active, RMI does not instantly jump from oversold to upward; it takes TIME for the balance between buyers and sellers to reverse enough to slow the down move, then reverse it.

Also keep in mind that the probability is higher for the next price bar to be in the same direction as the current bar than the probability that it will be in the opposite direction.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #609
  • May 21, 2019 1:05pm May 21, 2019 1:05pm
Quoting FXsniper111
{quote} Then with 50 pips how much would that help of days in trade??And run a test with AU/EU and EAUD basket with 50 pips tp and 5 ore 10% cutoff if you can???
its martingale without small SL... all backtest with this is useless (so why you do it???).... never trust martingale results... all you can backtest, is your first entry good....
or your result will show you something, what is not true for the future.. in some years backtest looks different again and again and again......

with a normal stategy all is different... but not with luck strategies like martingale.. ther you only hope for luck , that yopur wrong decision will be still ok, when price will turn.. but the reason is not because of analysing....
  • #610
  • May 21, 2019 1:20pm May 21, 2019 1:20pm
Quoting PowerMoon
{quote} its martingale without small SL... all backtest with this is useless (so why you do it???).... never trust martingale results... all you can backtest, is your first entry good.... or your result will show you something, what is not true for the future.. in some years backtest looks different again and again and again...... with a normal stategy all is different... but not with luck strategies like martingale.. ther you only hope for luck , that yopur wrong decision will be still ok, when price will turn.. but the reason is not because of...
First of all this is grid not martingale and i know traders succesful with soft martingale and a cutoff with years in profit its all abaut where to set the cutoff and first entry usually after bigger moves and you cant aim for 100% a month you must settle for "only" 5-15% a month so you cant get rich of 500 dollars.but that is why i think this EA can be good if we can find the best place to put the cutoff and i agree backtests cant tell how much you can make ore tings like that,but can get a idea of where the cutoff will profit most..Thats all i am saying..


EDIT:This is my second live entry a small divergence on RMI and a big undesided candle followed bye a insidebar now up 14 pips...i closed the first basket 6 pips in profit because was so slow.
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Insanityoing same ting over expecting different results..Einstein
  • #611
  • May 21, 2019 1:33pm May 21, 2019 1:33pm
3 weeks in and the test account has surpassed 50% DD which is my personal threshold for this kind of EA.

If it was a high yield EA then perhaps I could stretch the DD limit if I could see that it would be worth the effort in the end, but for an EA that is advertised as something making 5-10% pm, but is in over 50% DD within the first 3 weeks its not worth it IMO.

Strategy aside I do find the choice of pairs one of the major problems. Trading 3 pairs and all CAD crosses is heavily correlated and not the best choice. GBPCAD is also a very volatile pair with over 100 pip ADR, not the best choice for a grid type strategy.

I gave the OP the benefit as I do believe his intentions are good, but this strategy and EA needs some work before ever being considered for live trading.
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Truth is like poetry. And most people f*cking hate poetry.
  • #612
  • May 21, 2019 1:34pm May 21, 2019 1:34pm
Quoting FXsniper111
{quote} First of all this is grid not martingale and i know traders succesful with soft martingale and a cutoff with years in profit its all abaut where to set the cutoff and first entry usually after bigger moves and you cant aim for 100% a month you must settle for "only" 5-15% a month so you cant get rich of 500 dollars.but that is why i think this EA can be good if we can find the best place to put the cutoff and i agree backtests cant tell how much you can make ore tings like that,but can get a idea of where the cutoff will profit most..Thats...
yes ok we need to split here, for trading as fun or hobby its ok, then even martingale is ok, not good, loss on the end without luck, but ok when you dont want learn trading and dont have time to trade with good entries or wait for good entries.

but trading fulltime , only beginners (or people who call good and are beginners) use martingale. and someone can trade 10 years, and still is a beginner, when he dont understand the total basics in math and trading, so this is no matter of time, its possible to something 10 years wrong...
in trading fulltime, you dont need luck strategies....
and next the win is to small. and dont calculate a win only in a account, always calculate win to all money and wealth from this person. then this percents are so small against real wins from normal strategies, where you can even have whole money in 1 account , when you secure it by different products, so its outside broker risk.

what is your different definition from grid and martingale, so i know how you split both?
  • #613
  • May 21, 2019 1:34pm May 21, 2019 1:34pm
But i am done sharing my results and settings going forward only get"martingale/grids dont work cant work "and all that shit so i would like a coupple of tests on multiple pairs if anyone can do that???other than that i am done....
Insanityoing same ting over expecting different results..Einstein
  • #614
  • May 21, 2019 1:37pm May 21, 2019 1:37pm
Quoting PowerMoon
{quote} yes ok we need to split here, for trading as fun or hobby its ok, then even martingale is ok, not good, loss on the end without luck, but ok when you dont want learn trading and dont have time to trade with good entries or wait for good entries. but trading fulltime , only beginners (or people who call good and are beginners) use martingale. and someone can trade 10 years, and still is a beginner, when he dont understand the total basics in math and trading, so this is no matter of time, its possible to something 10 years wrong... the win...
sure!!!
Insanityoing same ting over expecting different results..Einstein
  • #615
  • May 21, 2019 2:19pm May 21, 2019 2:19pm
Quoting PowerMoon
{quote}what is your different definition from grid and martingale, so i know how you split both?
A true martingale strategy doubles the size of each successive trade as the trade goes into loss. A grid does not necessarily do that; it only adds new positions (sometimes both directions) at different levels to make loss recovery faster. It is not as reckless as martingale.
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #616
  • May 21, 2019 2:38pm May 21, 2019 2:38pm
Quoting turtlefan
{quote} A true martingale strategy doubles the size of each successive trade as the trade goes into loss. A grid does not necessarily do that; it only adds new positions (sometimes both directions) at different levels to make loss recovery faster. It is not as reckless as martingale.
so grid is for you martingale with doubling factor 1,0 for each new trade and martingale with 2,0 doubling factor ? correct? thats all difference in your definition?
  • #617
  • May 21, 2019 2:53pm May 21, 2019 2:53pm
Quoting PowerMoon
{quote} so grid is for you martingale with doubling factor 1,0 for each new trade and martingale with 2,0 doubling factor ? correct? thats all difference in your definition?
So hard!!!Grid is opening more possisions with same lotsize and martingale is adding lots on open more possisions...hope it clearifies for you.
Insanityoing same ting over expecting different results..Einstein
  • #618
  • May 21, 2019 3:02pm May 21, 2019 3:02pm
Quoting FXsniper111
{quote} So hard!!!Grid is opening more possisions with same lotsize and martingale is adding lots on open more possisions...hope it clearifies for you.

ok, so different using of words/definitions...
for me martingale is buying again and again with whatever lotsize ( what ever factor, whatever place rebuying)... most important is with no SL (is margin call as SL).

for me Grid is designing a strategy, knowing its not very good strategy but possible to use, because not very good created until now. so strategy with placing orders in different points because first entry point is not so good (no matter different lotsize or time), but all until 1 maximum lotsize for all orders together , not more then this and always with a SL in place (here it changed with tight and extrem SL used).

but looks like any one has own definitioon of grid and martingale, this is not so fixed... that why is always good to ask what someone is speaking about with grid and martingale.

sorry for crazy letters sometimes, writing from car at the moment (no driver of course) .
  • #619
  • May 21, 2019 3:35pm May 21, 2019 3:35pm
Quoting PowerMoon
{quote} ok, so different using of words/definitions... for me martingale is buying again and again with whatever lotsize ( what ever factor, whatever place rebuying).
LOL. Actually, no, you don't get to just make up your own definitions. You can't say "martingale means such and such FOR ME". The word "martingale" has a very definite and specific meaning that you need to learn before you talk about it. Here is the history and meaning of the term (from https://www.statisticshowto.datascie...e-definition/):

History of Martingales
The word martingale came from a group of betting strategies that were popular in France in the 18th century. In a simple game where a gambler wins if a coin comes up heads and loses if it comes up tails, the martingale strategy had him double his bet every time he lost. As he continues to play, the probability of tossing at least one head approaches 1 (as the number of trials approach infinity), so he was considered to be certain of eventually winning back everything he lost plus his original stake.

Since the amount staked increases exponentially with this method and no player actually possesses the infinite bankrolls necessary to ensure success, it is rather more risky than one might think.

In probability theory, the concept of martingales was pioneered by Paul Levy in 1934. The term was first used for the statistical concept by Jean Ville in 1939.
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #620
  • May 21, 2019 3:37pm May 21, 2019 3:37pm
Quoting turtlefan
{quote} LOL. Actually, no, you don't get to just make up your own definitions. You can't say "martingale means such and such FOR ME". The word "martingale" has a very definite and specific meaning that you need to learn before you talk about it. Here is the history and meaning of the term (from https://www.statisticshowto.datascie...e-definition/): History of Martingales The word martingale came from a group of betting strategies that were popular in France in the 18th century. In a simple game where a gambler wins...
true, but: then we get a problem: in trading many changed over years and you still live in many many decades back... this will not help, when you cant accept, that in this time the factor is not every time 2,0 and its still martingale.

but however.... anyone has to live with his own definition and in his own time, history of any word definitions or reality today.
and even in past there was different factors (by the way)...
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