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False Prophets

  • #1,941
  • May 19, 2019 9:34pm May 19, 2019 9:34pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} I have been trading long enough to be able to state that fibs and pivots are mostly useless. I don't know why traders still use them.
This thread is hilarious.
Ardua Ad Astra Per
  • #1,942
  • May 20, 2019 12:16am May 20, 2019 12:16am
Quoting Hutch
{quote} I have been trading long enough to be able to state that fibs and pivots are mostly useless. I don't know why traders still use them.
Levels always are subjective. As reference are useful but you can't believe are real SR areas. But its true using them with other references as weekly ADR can give you an approximate retrace/swing timing

Problem at this stage is all market is so tricky for references works as expected. You never knows when a movement will be real.
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #1,943
  • May 20, 2019 12:56am May 20, 2019 12:56am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} Depends on how you use them. Price more often than not covers from daily open to daily pivot. ADVANCED ALIEN CIVILIZATION TECHNOLOGY has shown that to be a fact.
Maybe it's because they received that information from the highest technology civilization here on earth
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  • #1,944
  • May 20, 2019 12:59am May 20, 2019 12:59am
Quoting mistakesr
{quote} This thread is hilarious.
I hope so otherwise nobody would look at the posts here !!!
  • #1,945
  • May 20, 2019 5:02pm May 20, 2019 5:02pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} Maybe it's because they received that information from the highest technology civilization here on earth {image}
It's a joke, Hutch.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #1,946
  • May 21, 2019 1:06am May 21, 2019 1:06am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} It's a joke, Hutch.
Yep but we have to keep this thread hilarious to keep mistakesr happy
  • #1,947
  • May 21, 2019 1:44am May 21, 2019 1:44am
Quoting Hutch
{quote} Yep but we have to keep this thread hilarious to keep mistakesr happy
I'm always H. A. P. P. Y. I do the happy dance every morning.
Ardua Ad Astra Per
  • #1,948
  • May 21, 2019 2:39am May 21, 2019 2:39am
Quoting EcoTrader
Most traders following a strategy that focuses on range I.e Fibs Pivots Oscillators Would have been taken to the cleaners over the last couple of weeks. The fx market has been in a rut in terms of volatility compared to years ago. The last 2 weeks some of that volatility has shown its face once more and suddenly, range based strategies getting beaten with drawdown. What these market scenarios should be screaming at you all, is to recognise what's going on and be able to switch strategy or step aside until the market is better suited to the approach....
Hi Ecotrader,

apart from ADR what other resources/stats are you using to measure volatility?

Shrips
  • #1,949
  • May 21, 2019 5:13am May 21, 2019 5:13am
Quoting shrips
{quote} Hi Ecotrader, apart from ADR what other resources/stats are you using to measure volatility? Shrips
You might try this indicator it's a weighted average of three stochastic indicators (Short, medium and long periods).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ultimateloscillator.gif Size: 16 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Ultimate_Oscillator.ex4   11 KB | 292 downloads
File Type: mq4 Ultimate_Oscillator.mq4   3 KB | 293 downloads
  • #1,950
  • May 21, 2019 8:18am May 21, 2019 8:18am
Quoting Hutch
{quote} You might try this indicator it's a weighted average of three stochastic indicators (Short, medium and long periods). {image} {file} {file}
Good one, Hutch.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #1,951
  • May 21, 2019 10:42am May 21, 2019 10:42am
Quoting heispark
This is a story about once a star Forex trader named 'FX Viper'. He ran a signal service and was well known for his consistent profits delivery for years until he finally demised with consecutive huge DD (btw he used a custom pivot). His Youtube video hit one million views and some of you may remember him. Eventually, once good friends Jeff and Nick became foes since then. Read details of this soap opera from here: https://donnaforex.com/index.php?PHP...opic=10883.855 https://youtu.be/lSKT6o3gpo0...
FX Viper's came back to FF!! He's still playing with automatic trades......
Give him a big welcome.
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #1,952
  • May 22, 2019 10:38pm May 22, 2019 10:38pm
Quoting EcoTrader
Most traders following a strategy that focuses on range I.e Fibs Pivots Oscillators Would have been taken to the cleaners over the last couple of weeks. The fx market has been in a rut in terms of volatility compared to years ago. The last 2 weeks some of that volatility has shown its face once more and suddenly, range based strategies getting beaten with drawdown. What these market scenarios should be screaming at you all, is to recognise what's going on and be able to switch strategy or step aside until the market is better suited to the approach....
Top and Bottom picking strategies fall apart when markets/prices start trending and this is when the old adage-the trend is your friend rings true. In my humble opinion, Pivot strategy is very robust but if a trader doesn't adjust depending on price environment (Trend or Range) price will just break below or above those points where one expects(instead of anticipating) a turn, like they don't even exist. Then naturally, a Trader's brain will switch to narrative bias mode trying to explain why the turning points will work coz of X, Y and Z https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/b...narrative-bias ...everyday as I gain more experience in trading I am fascinated at how the role psychology plays in trading is overlooked. Traders psychologically anchor to what worked in the past and find it hard to adjust behaviors no matter how loud the changing market scenarios 'scream' at us. Costly Mistake.

"There are at least three sources of investing edge: informational, behavioral and analytical. Human behavioral bias represents the most lasting edge" - Jim O’Shaughnessy
  • #1,953
  • May 23, 2019 12:38am May 23, 2019 12:38am
Quoting Trendzy
{quote} Top and Bottom picking strategies fall apart when markets/prices start trending and this is when the old adage-the trend is your friend rings true. In my humble opinion, Pivot strategy is very robust but if a trader doesn't adjust depending on price environment (Trend or Range) price will just break below or above those points where one expects(instead of anticipating) a turn, like they don't even exist. Then naturally, a Trader's brain will switch to narrative bias mode trying to explain why the turning points will work coz of X, Y and...
It's still a game of probabilities no matter how you want to frame it. It seems to me some of you people want to make Forex so complicated it seems impossible which is isn't. Keep it simple stupid but make sure you keep doing the same stuff over and over and over again once you've learned what it is you have to do. Psychology is at least 80% of it but only once you've figured out your rules and what you want to achieve.
Ardua Ad Astra Per
  • #1,954
  • May 23, 2019 1:02am May 23, 2019 1:02am
Quoting shrips
{quote} Hi Ecotrader, apart from ADR what other resources/stats are you using to measure volatility? Shrips
I use VIX
  • #1,955
  • May 23, 2019 5:06am May 23, 2019 5:06am
Quoting mistakesr
{quote} It's still a game of probabilities no matter how you want to frame it. It seems to me some of you people want to make Forex so complicated it seems impossible which is isn't. Keep it simple stupid but make sure you keep doing the same stuff over and over and over again once you've learned what it is you have to do. Psychology is at least 80% of it but only once you've figured out your rules and what you want to achieve.
Correct, it is a game of probabilities and I personally don't believe good trading is complicated or impossible but-
"Trading is simple but not easy" -Jack Schwager, The New Market Wizards.
In my opinion,what makes it hard is the role human psychology plays when it comes to decision making under uncertainty.
  • #1,956
  • May 23, 2019 6:00am May 23, 2019 6:00am
Quoting Trendzy
{quote} Top and Bottom picking strategies fall apart when markets/prices start trending and this is when the old adage-the trend is your friend rings true. In my humble opinion, Pivot strategy is very robust but if a trader doesn't adjust depending on price environment (Trend or Range) price will just break below or above those points where one expects(instead of anticipating) a turn, like they don't even exist. Then naturally, a Trader's brain will switch to narrative bias mode trying to explain why the turning points will work coz of X, Y and...
"Pivot strategy is very robust but if a trader doesn't adjust depending on price environment (Trend or Range) "

Unfortunately, it's not possible to know the "price environment" in advance.

Some retail forex traders like a Pivot Strategy because if the price blows through their favorite level for a big DD, there is always the hope that the next level will hold.
  • #1,957
  • May 23, 2019 6:15am May 23, 2019 6:15am
Yes, unfortunately foresight isn't possible. We just have to gauge the environment based on hindsight data and then make a judgement based on the odds of X happening over Y. Hope is the No. 1 cause of death in this Business.
  • #1,958
  • May 23, 2019 8:09am May 23, 2019 8:09am
Quoting Trendzy
{quote} Correct, it is a game of probabilities and I personally don't believe good trading is complicated or impossible but- "Trading is simple but not easy" -Jack Schwager, The New Market Wizards. In my opinion,what makes it hard is the role human psychology plays when it comes to decision making under uncertainty.
More accurately, trading is a game of statistics. Dice, cards, and roulette are games of probabilities.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #1,959
  • May 23, 2019 8:59am May 23, 2019 8:59am
News trading isn't probabilities if you do it right. Why, because its new information that is being actively priced in. If you trading off charts and technical analysis then yes you are operating within probabilities.
  • #1,960
  • May 23, 2019 9:21am May 23, 2019 9:21am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} "Pivot strategy is very robust but if a trader doesn't adjust depending on price environment (Trend or Range) " Unfortunately, it's not possible to know the "price environment" in advance. Some retail forex traders like a Pivot Strategy because if the price blows through their favorite level for a big DD, there is always the hope that the next level will hold.
The problem with pivots is that there are many of them with different calculation methods this is why I never used them.
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