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Pivot Trading

  • #30,561
  • May 20, 2019 3:37pm May 20, 2019 3:37pm
EA already closed some positions at S38, still holding one, will add more short after Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
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  • #30,562
  • May 20, 2019 3:40pm May 20, 2019 3:40pm
watching closely GBPCAD
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  • #30,563
  • May 20, 2019 3:43pm May 20, 2019 3:43pm
EJ with small DD. start building reversal.
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  • #30,564
  • May 20, 2019 5:20pm May 20, 2019 5:20pm
Quoting ikdenk
I expect the Aussie dollar to rebound now that ScoMo has been re-elected. No doubt the Kiwi dollar will slowly follow in its footsteps. The polls in Australia have been predicting the Labor Party to win for the last three years, instead the Liberal/National coalation will continue to govern. When Labour won the election in NZ two years ago, there was a big drop in the Kiwi dollar and business confidence dropped significantly and never recovered. I believe this 'bad news' was already baked in the Aussie dollar from which I now expect it to recover,...
Results:
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A bit of a different approach, 'scalping' the Aussie and Kiwi dollar and some other pairs between pivot levels.

In case you are wondering, I also reduced my drawdown by 50%.
  • #30,565
  • May 20, 2019 5:23pm May 20, 2019 5:23pm
watching PA still not take any setup because not much liquidity in the market waiting and watching that prices moves in clear direction
Trading is about paying attention. Davit
  • #30,566
  • Edited 6:50pm May 20, 2019 6:30pm | Edited 6:50pm
Key event tonight
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes AUD
I believe tone will be less dovish.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #30,567
  • Edited 8:41pm May 20, 2019 6:48pm | Edited 8:41pm
Want to express why I think this thread is powerhouse at FF and proud of it!
Some of the best traders are here in no particular order

Fibo38
Cryptosurf
GMO
ppxdf
asgharhussai
General Lee
bubincka

and many in the process of achieving proficiency

DrForexMD
DiamondMiner
Egbert
MichaelG
Nextgendad
denisius
GreenEarth
kingdomk
1pipperhour
mch1970
Swede
S.Wladimir
ikdenk

Resident Harmonic contributor Romanov102
and many others (sorry if I miss your name these are some of the most active folks here why their names pop up in my head.)
Great job Guys!
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #30,568
  • May 20, 2019 7:28pm May 20, 2019 7:28pm
Quoting Davit
Want to express why I think this thread is powerhouse at FF and proud of it! Some of the best traders are here in no particular order Fibo38 Cryptosurf GMO ppxdf asgharhussai General Lee bubincka and many in the process of achieving proficiency DrForexMD DiamondMiner Egbert MichaelG Nextgendad denisius GreenEarth kingdomk 1pipperhour mch1970 Swede S.Wladimir Resident Harmonic contributor Romanov102 and many others (sorry if I miss your name these are some of the most active folks here why their names pop up in my head.) Great job Guys!...
Thanks bud, we all have you to thank!
Trade with confidence, trade without fear.
  • #30,569
  • May 20, 2019 8:10pm May 20, 2019 8:10pm
Quoting Davit
Want to express why I think this thread is powerhouse at FF and proud of it! Some of the best traders are here in no particular order Fibo38 Cryptosurf GMO ppxdf asgharhussai General Lee bubincka and many in the process of achieving proficiency DrForexMD DiamondMiner Egbert MichaelG Nextgendad denisius GreenEarth kingdomk 1pipperhour mch1970 Swede S.Wladimir Resident Harmonic contributor Romanov102 and many others (sorry if I miss your name these are some of the most active folks here why their names pop up in my head.) Great job Guys!...
thanks mate
  • #30,570
  • May 20, 2019 8:45pm May 20, 2019 8:45pm
Hi guys
Actually read the whole thing. Kind of mix bag statement why market is confused to be bullish or hawkish.There are hints that RBA is willing to cut twice this year also may not depending on growth,job market.
It looks like they very well may keep the rate same in June 4th.Should China trade dispute get resolved it will boast Aussie economy and may change RBA projections.
Below sounds bullish"

"
Growth in employment in the March quarter had been strong, following similar outcomes over much of 2018. Most of the growth in employment since mid 2018 had been in full-time employment. The unemployment rate had remained around 5 per cent in March. Members observed that conditions in the labour market had signalled a significantly stronger pace of economic activity since mid 2018 than indicated by the GDP data. Leading indicators of labour demand had eased over recent months and provided a mixed picture of the near-term outlook. As a result, employment growth was expected to be similar to the growth rate of the working-age population in the near term. The unemployment rate was expected to remain around 5 per cent through most of the forecast period, before declining to around 4¾ per cent in 2021.
Members noted that the forecasts for the labour market suggested that there would be some spare capacity in the labour market throughout the forecast period, although there was uncertainty about how quickly the spare capacity would decline and how progress would feed into wage pressures. The central forecast was for wages growth to pick up gradually. In combination, the forecasts for wages growth and consumer price inflation implied that real consumer wage growth would be low but positive over the forecast period.


This is the part kind of confusing and very dovish.Note they dont say its their view its "Financial market participants" view

Financial market participants' expectations of cash rate cuts were brought further forward following the release of the March quarter CPI. Financial market pricing implied that the cash rate was expected to be lowered by 25 basis points within the next three months and again by the end of 2019.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #30,571
  • May 20, 2019 8:47pm May 20, 2019 8:47pm
Quoting Davit
Want to express why I think this thread is powerhouse at FF and proud of it! Some of the best traders are here in no particular order Fibo38 Cryptosurf GMO ppxdf asgharhussai General Lee bubincka and many in the process of achieving proficiency DrForexMD DiamondMiner Egbert MichaelG Nextgendad denisius GreenEarth kingdomk 1pipperhour mch1970 Swede S.Wladimir ikdenk Resident Harmonic contributor Romanov102 and many others (sorry if I miss your name these are some of the most active folks here why their names pop up in my head.) Great job Guys!...
Respect. All thanks to you. Sorry guys I am staying quiet right now. Working on my own issues. I am Long AUD full load. Target 77.38 area on AJ. I have to train myself to see perspective in the long run. But I am with you every day!
  • #30,572
  • May 20, 2019 8:49pm May 20, 2019 8:49pm
Quoting Davit
Hi guys Actually read the whole thing. Kind of mix bag statement why market is confused to be bullish or hawkish.There are hints that RBA is willing to cut twice this year also may not depending on growth,job market. It looks like they very well may keep the rate same in June 4th.Should China trade dispute get resolved it will boast Aussie economy and may change RBA projections. Below sounds bullish" " Growth in employment in the March quarter had been strong, following similar outcomes over much of 2018. Most of the growth in employment since mid...
In 2 weeks of observation and holding I stated to understand why you only buy AN.
  • #30,573
  • May 20, 2019 9:00pm May 20, 2019 9:00pm
Given vague statement of RBA and AUD having been severely over sold I am holding my positions since techicals call for correction.
Fact is they kept the rate same!

The Decision
The Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5 per cent.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #30,574
  • May 20, 2019 9:06pm May 20, 2019 9:06pm
Rate Cut on AUD May actually play very well. First it’s already priced in, second, take JPY - they have negative rates for years, CHF - same thing, even USD - expansion all over the place. If announced I am expecting short drop before long rise. And of course new Elected Morrison . Don’t know what his political views but heard he is Pro Trump. Ether way it could be very well long AUD for another year or so.
  • #30,575
  • May 20, 2019 9:09pm May 20, 2019 9:09pm
Those who like risk, watch GC , I target it for a month already. It is at very bottom . Good C data helped to bring it down but its time for correction. Tonight G data. Could be time for reversal.
  • #30,576
  • May 20, 2019 9:11pm May 20, 2019 9:11pm
Quoting denisius
Rate Cut on AUD May actually play very well. First it’s already priced in, second, take JPY - they have negative rates for years, CHF - same thing, even USD - expansion all over the place. If announced I am expecting short drop before long rise. And of course new Elected Morrison . Don’t know what his political views but heard he is Pro Trump. Ether way it could be very well long AUD for another year or so.
Much depends on China now. Lets see if Trump can pull a rabbit out of the hat I never imagined that my trading could be effected by tweeting president and it could very well be while pushing bowls on the toilet
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #30,577
  • May 20, 2019 9:21pm May 20, 2019 9:21pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Much depends on China now. Lets see if Trump can pull a rabbit out of the hat I never imagined that my trading could be effected by tweeting president and it could very well be while pushing bowls on the toilet
That’s exactly why I stay quiet. 2 weeks up down up down up down every hour. Every time he open his mouth. China good China bad. Tired. He will loosen his ties. There is no other way. Dollar too high. And it hurts every one right now. Any business in us raising prices on any parts from China. I see it at my own job. It happens sooner than later.
  • #30,578
  • May 20, 2019 10:10pm May 20, 2019 10:10pm
Quoting Davit
Want to express why I think this thread is powerhouse at FF and proud of it! Some of the best traders are here in no particular order Fibo38 Cryptosurf GMO ppxdf asgharhussai General Lee bubincka and many in the process of achieving proficiency DrForexMD DiamondMiner Egbert MichaelG Nextgendad denisius GreenEarth kingdomk 1pipperhour mch1970 Swede S.Wladimir ikdenk Resident Harmonic contributor Romanov102 and many others (sorry if I miss your name these are some of the most active folks here why their names pop up in my head.) Great job Guys!...
Thank you very much Davit all credit goes to you you introduce us an amazing thing and after following that we become profitable
Trading is about paying attention. Davit
  • #30,579
  • Edited 1:20am May 21, 2019 12:43am | Edited 1:20am
re-entered short euraud
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  • #30,580
  • May 21, 2019 3:09am May 21, 2019 3:09am
For AUD, easing bias prevail on market sentiment.

US/China trade war is still the main issue and driver along with next data release due on June, specially Cash rate and RBA Stetement, GDP and jobs.
As for today , sell off is evident, patience is the name of the game, DD important but still manageable.
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