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Institutional Equivalent Education?

  • #861
  • May 17, 2019 6:25am May 17, 2019 6:25am
Quoting tempguy
Hello. Quick question. Buying the "Sharp Edge Suite" i would be able to view all the videos of Ray. I mean everything he has done all those years? Even the first one? Thank you.
I don't quite think you understand what you are asking about.
So you get access to most of the past courses plus 'Daily Focus Session' recordings, but not all the recordings - there must have been over 1,000 in total and most of them were at least 1hr long - LOL !

I generally advise students who are doing the course via the recordings to start with the most recent full course. For most retail traders there is a huge amount of new information in every class session form the last course. It is easier for ex-institutional traders, of whom I know at least 3 have done Ray's courses.

The more recent courses lasted between 4 and 5 weeks with (including the Daily Focus sessions held while the course was on) a total of around a minimum of 16rs per week of recordings. I suggest that at least with the Class sessions a new student needs to go though almost every class session recording at least 2 or 3 times taking lots of notes, taking screenshots and marking them up in MS Paint and filing them in different categories.

So if you are able to devote the time, there is at least 48hr x 4 or 5 weeks of study there just for a single course!

Note that Ray basically is teaching the same core techniques in every Full course, but he has been improving and adding to it ever since his first retail course in 2014.

You can safely ignore the 3-day 'taster' class he did in 2017 because all the material from that was covered on his 2018 and 2019 courses.
  • #862
  • May 17, 2019 6:40am May 17, 2019 6:40am
Quoting ianf0ster
There is still plenty of dumb money out there for the taking! I just saw that priceaction1 has started ignoring me: {image} Since I am classified as a 'Commercial' I can't have posted anything he doesn't like in his threads. So I can only assume that he objects to my threads - great! That means he is another dumb-ass just begging to be separated from his money. But it gets better, he has several hundred Followers and Buddies - now we are talking. LOL !



One of my Self Help Group members has told me that priceaction1 isn't ignoring me specifically, that it isn't anything personal. He says priceaction is ignoring everybody who posted to the very old thread called 'Technical Analysis Fallacy', except for its originator who was called Fti.

I'm afraid that my view of priceaction1 remains that he is a dumb-ass, though now it is for going to such extreme lengths in order to reduce the perceived size of a thread devoted to trading philosophy.

Here is my skype conversation with my group member about it:

D: Ian I think he ignored you in ff because he is ignoring anyone who posted on technical analysis fallacy so he only sees fti's posts

I F: Ignoring people who last posted in there 6yrs ago or more? How strange.

D: Yah odd, but I've seen it done before so people can condense a thread to only the master/masters

I F: OK, it is a very old thread with not very much of what I would call real content.

D: new project in progress
operation cleanup completed till 1300 pages in Technical Analysis Fallacy. the ignored list increased, will ignore all except fti.
PA1 own words
It's a philosophy thread on trading art of war style

I F: I do remember what the thread was about, however what the vast majority of traders need isn't philosophy. It is the information about how the different types of institutional participants work their business models, what that means for Price Action and how to value markets. In other words what Ray provides.

After a trader already has most of that, then they can use philosophy and psychology, but before then it won't have much impact on the bottom line because they are still gambling without even knowing the Odds.
  • #863
  • May 17, 2019 6:57am May 17, 2019 6:57am
Quoting ianf0ster
{quote} One of my Self Help Group members has told me that priceaction1 isn't ignoring me specifically, that it isn't anything personal. He says priceaction is ignoring everybody who posted to the very old thread called 'Technical Analysis Fallacy', except for its originator who was called Fti. I'm afraid that my view of priceaction1 remains that he is a dumb-ass, though now it is for going to such extreme lengths in order to reduce the perceived size of a thread devoted to trading philosophy. Here is my skype conversation with my group member about...
I have joined this group thinking there is something to share as charts and strategies. All you have been doing so far is writing, the whole paragraphs of nonsense. Either share something that has to do with trading, or close the group plain and simple. I will stick around here for a bit, and if you post one more nonsense I am leaving this group as so far it's useless.
  • #864
  • May 17, 2019 7:12am May 17, 2019 7:12am
Quoting ianf0ster
{quote} I don't quite think you understand what you are asking about. So you get access to most of the past courses plus 'Daily Focus Session' recordings, but not all the recordings - there must have been over 1,000 in total and most of them were at least 1hr long - LOL !
Thank you for answering me, no i know what i ask you. Short story lets say Ray has done 1000 videos would i be able to watch them on demand or not?The reason is technical? i mean the old videos are not anymore available on their database? are deleted?

Thanks again!
  • #865
  • May 17, 2019 7:19am May 17, 2019 7:19am
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} I have joined this group thinking there is something to share as charts and strategies. All you have been doing so far is writing, the whole paragraphs of nonsense. Either share something that has to do with trading, or close the group plain and simple. I will stick around here for a bit, and if you post one more nonsense I am leaving this group as so far it's useless.


You say : " I have joined this group thinking there is something to share as charts and strategies.... "
Oh, there are well over 100 charts. including ones which show analysis and actual trades - just not so many in the last 2 or 3 yrs since I am running out of things I can share without breaching the Non-Disclosure Agreements that I signed. ( One for 'The MAX' and one for 'PropTime' which is now called 'Sharp Edge'. )
But I suppose you never look at any prior posts.

You say: "Either share something that has to do with trading, or close the group plain and simple. "
Well everybody has a different viewpoint but in my view, every post in here is about trading - I don't post about sport, or personal relationships (except in the context of the stress that trading places on them).

For example in the post prior to yours I am definitely talking about trading:
" I F: I do remember what the thread was about, however what the vast majority of traders need isn't philosophy. It is the information about how the different types of institutional participants work their business models, what that means for Price Action and how to value markets. In other words what Ray provides.

After a trader already has most of that, then they can use philosophy and psychology, but before then it won't have much impact on the bottom line because they are still gambling without even knowing the Odds. "


But it isn't compulsory to view my thread(s) - LOL !
  • #866
  • May 17, 2019 7:25am May 17, 2019 7:25am
Quoting ianf0ster
{quote} You say : " I have joined this group thinking there is something to share as charts and strategies.... " Oh, there are well over 100 charts. including ones which show analysis and actual trades - just not so many in the last 2 or 3 yrs since I am running out of things I can share without breaching the Non-Disclosure Agreements that I signed. ( One for 'The MAX' and one for 'PropTime' which is now called 'Sharp Edge'. ) But I suppose you never look at any prior posts. You say: "Either share something that has to do with trading, or close...
As I said useless. You are talking out of your behind. Nothing here in this group but you talking to yourself.
  • #867
  • May 17, 2019 9:17am May 17, 2019 9:17am
Quoting tempguy
{quote} Thank you for answering me, no i know what i ask you. Short story lets say Ray has done 1000 videos would i be able to watch them on demand or not?The reason is technical? i mean the old videos are not anymore available on their database? are deleted? Thanks again!
No, probably only the last 500 or so are available on demand.
But nobody would have the time to view them all - LOl!
That is why Ray insisted on reducing the recordings to a more manageable number and instead to recording the whole of his US stint (from 8am Eastern to around 11am or mid-day eastern) with lost of silence in them, they now just record a 1 to 2hr 'Focus Session' where he is more in teaching things based on the days market action mode.
  • #868
  • May 17, 2019 9:22am May 17, 2019 9:22am
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} As I said useless. You are talking out of your behind. Nothing here in this group but you talking to yourself.


Like the Kiwis said when their ex-prime minister emigrated to Australia
'He left, thereby raising the average intelligence level of both places ' - LOL !

And no, for a change this post isn't about trading!
  • #869
  • May 17, 2019 9:33am May 17, 2019 9:33am
Quoting ianf0ster
{quote} No, probably only the last 500 or so are available on demand. But nobody would have the time to view them all - LOl! That is why Ray insisted on reducing the recordings to a more manageable number
Yeah i understand that but time for me is not a problem, one last question and the reason why i asked that thing is if in the new/latest videos he puts all the stuff he had said all those years? i mean the parts of the class are always the same no matter the time pass right? atleast the fundamentals, i say that because i have read i think from you that Ray is always bringing something new.

Thank you.
  • #870
  • Edited 3:32pm May 17, 2019 10:21am | Edited 3:32pm
Quoting tempguy
{quote} Yeah i understand that but time for me is not a problem, one last question and the reason why i asked that thing is if in the new/latest videos he puts all the stuff he had said all those years? i mean the parts of the class are always the same no matter the time pass right? at least the fundamentals, i say that because i have read i think from you that Ray is always bringing something new. Thank you.


He always teaches the same main concepts as he did right back in May 2014, He just does it better, in a different way, showing how to use more free and cheap resources plus adding in some really new things.

Ray is mainly a Quant/Strategist as well as a trader so he is always trying out new things. Some stick and some don't.

Most students find his best teaching is almost always seen in his latest class, but different people learn in different ways, so in rare cases people say that an earlier treatment of a concept or technique was better for them to learn from than his most recent one.

One example of this is with my old News Trading style ( see the early posts in this thread) which uses techniques that he doesn't usually cover. Instead he covers a better, safer, less frenetic style which most students prefer. But back in August 2014 it struck a chord with me, so I still sometimes use that original style but I am a lot more choosy about when I use it!

The whole point of Ray's teaching is that using it you can trade practically any market in any timeframe using any resources down to a bare price chart - or even just a price feed without a chart if you are really good at it.

Because none of his students can possibly trade all the markets , styles and timeframes that he shows, mostly we tend to trade what suits us the best and so gravitate to our own signature trades.
In the end you have to specialise because you only have 2 eyes, 2 hands and one brain, even of you have 10 accounts and 10 screens ! But at least with Ray there is almost certain to be something that really suits you - your personality, temperament , abilities and resources. Unlike other educators who try to make you fit with a system that suits them!

There is only one type of trader for whom Ray isn't right (well 2 if you include the lazy ones). that is the 'indicator junkie' type, which is why I suggest 'The MAX' for them.
  • #871
  • May 17, 2019 12:47pm May 17, 2019 12:47pm
Quoting ianf0ster
{quote}
Thank you. For all the answers!
  • #872
  • Edited May 18, 2019 4:59am May 17, 2019 4:39pm | Edited May 18, 2019 4:59am
Another well-intentioned, but seriously mistaken email from Boris Schlossberg of BK Forex (My comments in blue) :

*************************************************************************************

Dear Ian

Why R is the Most Important Letter in Trading

R in trading parlance is simply a uniform unit of risk with all your rewards are expressed as multiples of R. So a simple 10 pip stop and 20 pip target is a 2R trade. R can be expressed as pips, points, or dollars -- whatever suits you. The primary value of R is that it normalizes risk across all your trades, or bets as I like to call them.
- Agreed

Now the internet is full of “R Billionaires” -- traders who claim in podcast after podcast that they have a 70% win rate and 2.45R average. (Just to show you how ridiculous that is -- it’s a 145% return without any leverage or taking $10000 to $77 Million in 10 years). But trader bulls-t aside, R is a very useful tool that should be part of our trading process regardless of what strategy we use.
- Now here I don't necessarily agree. For a start it depends upon whether you define a trade like the institutions do, like Ray's students are taught and like they do on 'The MAX' or like Boris does. Now all of the those mentioned except for Boris, think of a trade as either a directional play or a hedge. You can see immediately that a Hedge consists of at least 2 of what Boris calls trades. The way that both 'The MAX' and Ray teach trade management is that a directional trade consists of several parts. Both teach the ability to scale in and to take repeated partial profits within a single 'trade' as the Price Action or 'Value' changes the probability of reaching the next target or milestone.

'The MAX' has a long term win rate of around 70% to 75%, they measure the R on a trade but they don't measure their average R.
Ray teaches that a reasonable trader using his methods should have a win rate above 80%, and a good trader's win rate should be above 85%.
Ray suggests that if we swing trade i.e just 1 or 2 trades per full session per market per day, then we should measure how much of the swing we managed to capture, but not stress about our R, because how do you measure it when you are constantly changing the number of units open in the trade?- If you define a trade in such a way and measure the average R per trade when trading using either 'The MAX' or 'Sharp Edge' the you get actual figures based upon real trades which make a 70% win with an average 2.45R look like a novice!

It’s essentially a risk framework, that can quickly tell you how and why you make or lose money in the market. But before we delve in further -- allow me to digress. I stated above that we should stop calling trades -- “trades” and start thinking of them as bets.

Why?

Because the word “trades” has a false connotation to it. Trades imply open-ended narrative structures that can turn into psychological crutches as we hang on to the story arc long past its ending because we are convinced that we are “right”. Bets, on the other hand, are binary and final events- which is exactly how we should approach what we do. As traders, we don’t “invest” in stories, we make market bets and play the odds via R. (Yes, I have been reading a lot of Ray Dalio lately and regardless of whether you think Bridgewater is a cult or not, his philosophy of radical transparency is the perfect way to view our role in the market)
- I completely disagree(at least for the style of trading I am talking about)! Because a Trade IS A NARRATIVE - if you have no narrative of the dance between Price Action and Value, between Hedgers and Directionals, between Big Institutions, Market Makers and Prop Shops then YOU HAVE NO TRADE!

Lastly, stop thinking about daily, weekly, monthly, annual returns. The question -- how much can I make this year should never enter your mind again. Time is a completely artificial construct. Annual returns are simply marketing bulls-t pumped out by Wall Street for civilians who have no clue how markets work. The only way to honestly evaluate your performance is over a number of bets and 100 is as good a round number as any. So, if you can achieve some positive multiple of R over 100 bets. You. Are. Winning. At. Trading. Everything else is just noise.
- Again I partly disagree. Sure it is best not to concentrate on Daily, Weekly or Monthly P&L. But don't concentrate on the P&L at all! Because that is affected by how lucky or unlucky you have been. Instead concentrate on what you can control - which is how well you are trading. Did you follow your trading Plan? Did you miss any valid trades in your market while you were at your desk? How close to the best entry were you able to get, How close to the best final exit were you able to get? Did you do a good job on all the possible scale-ins and partial Profit-takes?

Now, in reality, 2R trades happen 25% of the time (did you really think the markets would give you any more than that?) Occasionally, certain strategies and certain pairs can give you 30%-32% win rates on 2R trades and that is as good as it can get, because just like a casino with 51%-49% advantage in roulette, you can make a lot of money out of a thin edge.
-Complete nonsense - unless you are gambling rather than trading, so that you only edge is your money management.

The key, of course, is to mitigate risk as soon as possible. There are two ways to do it. You can move the stop to breakeven as soon as trade goes 1R in the money and then wait for 2R to hit 31% of the time. If the b/e stop happens 50% of the time you are well ahead on this strategy. (Simple math -- 50 bets you lose 1R, 31 bets you make 2R, net result +12R). But that’s tough to do psychologically. We like to get paid more than 31% of the time. So most traders use a T1/T2 approach that I’ve talked about before. In that scenario, you start with 2R risk, exit half the trade at 1R move stop to breakeven and exit 2nd half at 2R. In fact, the nirvana formula for such an approach is 45-55-30 split where you lose 45 trades make 1R on 55 trades and make 2R on 30 trades. If you can do that consistently you actually will be an “R Billionaire” one day.
- Actually even if you start off achieving much better figures, you are most unlikely to become a Billionaire from trading your own account alone! The more size you need to get on a trade, the more you have to trade like an institution and so your Win% may stay high or even rise, but your R will drop substantially. 'Mr Carlsberg' would almost certainly be a billionaire by now if what Boris said was true and if he built up his accounts (but he withdraws all his profits every week - but then he never has a losing week).

Looking at markets through the prism of bets and R has really helped me spot my own weaknesses much quicker. About 4 weeks ago after a very long period of focusing only on systems, I started doing weekly prop trades for BK (basically K beat me into submission into doing it). The results are seemingly exemplary. I am up more than +500 pips on the recs despite Trump’s best efforts to disrupt the FX markets on a daily basis. But taking a look closer at what I was doing I realized that I had a glaring flaw in my approach. I’ve been using 100 pip stops 40 pip T1 targets and 100 pip T2 targets for essentially a maximum .7R. Generally, you want to keep your maximum R at 1 to 1.5 so that you can be positive on anything better than 50%. Not only was I making inferior trades but I was taking on risk that was utterly unnecessary. None of the winners ever went 50 pips against me. So going forward I am cutting stops to 70 pips -- that’s still not perfect -- but it does put me at 1R maximum bet which should be a much more resilient structure if I can stay above 50% win rate.

Up to now, I’ve been lucky. Going forward with better R, I hope to be good. Be sure to start using it in your own trading.
- Lucky? A serious trader should never allow his success to be determined by LUCK! How many times over does Boris prove he is a dumb-ass?

************************************************************************************************************

Posted in the Sharp Edge Trainig room today:

(10:13 am) E N : INdeed Kim. I made only 1 trade today on the GBP, with +13% profit. A small profit sure.
But I close the week with 318.3%. I cannot complain lol

I am not sure, but I think I counted 4 trades that he took this week, most lasted from London Open into the US Session.
Those % figures are % of his account not % of risked capital ! And his Maximum starting risk is never over 0.5% of his account.

Boris and others may not believe figures like that, but I have seen how he and Ray and the best of Ray's student trade so I know it is possible.
  • #873
  • May 19, 2019 7:05am May 19, 2019 7:05am
Something recent and of value to most traders from Lance Beggs (of Your Trading Coach).
Note that as always, the entries an exits shown on the following pictures are those of Lance Beggs, they are not Sharp Edge style or my style.

****************************************************************************************************
Hi Traders,

Most traders seem to be surprised when their trade loses. I'm actually surprised when one goes according to plan. It's a different mindset. But one that I think is important. Let's explore that topic today.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs.

Embrace the Suck

Let's talk a little about mindset. Or more specifically about our expectations leading into the day.

Because I suspect that the way I approach the game differs quite a bit from many other traders.

The market has opened...
[attach]embrace-the-suck-1.png;3340282[/attach]
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It's all about expectations.

I expect a really tough day...

and embrace the suck.
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continued in next post ...
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  • #874
  • May 19, 2019 7:10am May 19, 2019 7:10am
Continued from prior post ...

This difference in mindset is important.

Expecting simplicity leads more often than not to disappointment and frustration, as conditions do not turn out the way you expect.

And disappointment and frustration do NOT typically lead to effective decision making, as we analyse the market and identify and manage trade opportunity.

Expecting a challenge leads to a slightly more defensive mindset. One ready to survive through difficult conditions. And yet still open to potential large gains when the market surprises us with more favourable price movement.

Market conditions OFTEN suck.

The sooner you can accept and appreciate this. And in fact EXPECT it, the sooner you'll be able to get on with the job of managing it.
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Continued in next post.
  • #875
  • May 19, 2019 7:14am May 19, 2019 7:14am
Continued from prior post...

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EMBRACE THE SUCK!

If the market provides massively favourable conditions... that's a bonus.

If my execution just happens to be flawlessly in sync with the price movement... that's a bonus.

But I don't ever expect it.

Confidence does not come from hoping or praying for A+ trading conditions.

It comes from knowing that even if the market conditions are crap, or your execution at times really stinks, you can adapt and overcome.

Embrace the suck!

Expect it.

And learn to prevail despite it.

That is how you develop unshakeable confidence.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

*************************************************************************
  • #876
  • May 19, 2019 8:44am May 19, 2019 8:44am
OK so here is a small treat for you: How would one of Ray's (less than half trained) interns trade that time period of the NQ?

Here I am taking Stage 3 of the 7 stage Intern initial training process.
I am only showing entries although I have checked as best I can using Ray's guideline SL and TP for the NQ and I only found 1 losing trade.

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Yes this is scalping which is not how I trade, but it is what Ray initially has his interns learn.

So it is between 9 and 11 trades, with 1 loss and 1 or 2 where the first unit made a small profit and the second was scratched at Break-even.
With very little need to 'embrace the SUCK' - LOL !
  • #877
  • May 25, 2019 6:45am May 25, 2019 6:45am
A really good and provocative email from Boris Schlossberg this week. (My comments in blue):-


****************************************************************************************
The Difference Between Reaction and Response is Worth Hundreds of Pips


It’s been an intoxicating week at BK. We’ve been winning on every trade structure -- swing, news trading, day trading and even algo. A big part of the reason is simply the much more accommodative market environment. Nothing like pick up in volatility to make your continuation trades hit all their profit targets.

But it’s something more. The ability to win on both the news level and the swing level made me realize that I am starting to master a very distinct set of skills, that are really useful in understanding how markets really operate.It is about time! Ray has been teaching just that to retail traders for over 5yrs now.

One common refrain that I often hear from retail traders is, “I never pay attention to the news. It can’t help your trades anyway.” Although I refrain from saying this to their face, my immediate thought is that the only thing stupider than that statement are traders who tell me, “I never pay attention to technicals, they are just squiggles on a screen.”
Both attitudes are woefully myopic because trading is always and forever a mixture of fundamental catalysts, market positioning (trend) and price levels. It is a multi-factor game and just looking at “squiggles on a screen” or chasing the latest headline is a sure path to ruin in trading because you are flying partially blind. - Agreed, though it is possible to trade small timeframe scalps without Fundamentals and to trade very large timeframes without using technicals or Price Action. Though I suspect that Boris is just talking about retail day trading here..

Still, because retail traders are predominantly technically oriented and pay only cursory attention to fundamentals it’s really important to understand the difference between news reaction and news response. - The 'secret sauce of News trading' !

One of the reasons that so many retail traders are frustrated by news trading is that it seems to follow Murphy’s rule of law. Good news gets sold and bad news gets bought. Nowhere is this more evident than in commodity dollars where a few primary bank dealers control the order flow and enjoy nothing more than wrong footing traders who chase headlines. - Interesting that Boris uses the term 'primary bank dealers' here rather than their more common names amongst retail traders - Liquidity Providers or even Market Makers. In retail they are all considered mysterious and are all lumped together even though they are not quite the same thing (depending upon the particular Bank's model).

Let’s understand what happens when FX news comes out. The moment the headlines hit the wires algos from HFT firms like Citadel and Virtu will sweep all the offers or hit any bids in a matter of microseconds. - Boris is oversimplyfying here. The Limit Order Book only exists in the Currency Futures market- not in Spot FX - so those HFTs don't directly affect retail SpotFX. However he ignores the fact that the MarketMakers withdraw most of the liquidity from around the price level at news time ( both in the Futures and in SpotFX), so even a small order can move price a long distance. The big institutions don't use News to enter into positions ( the liquidity is too low for that) ,instead they use it to exit positions that they took pre-news in anticipation of the news - so if it is good news they are usually selling to retail who don't realise how much the institutions have to unload against them!. This is why retail traders often say that price goes in the 'wrong direction' on news releases! So often the move between pre-news and post news highs or lows is accomplished within a 1-minute candle leaving absolutely nothing for the point and click retail chasers who are fighting latency and wide spreads. Furthermore, the dealers who are on the opposite side of this flow have now inventoried a lot of one-way trades and need to carefully unload their position at a profit. - Only the Market Makers have this problem, the big institutions have been happily unloading their portfolio to all the news spike trading retail traders.

Contrary to the paranoia you’ve heard in retail chat rooms, dealers are not “always manipulating the market”. They are just doing their job as liquidity providers while trying to keep a positive P/L. So naturally, prices will often rise after an initial sharp drop or fall after a spike higher. That’s how the game is played, so don’t hate the player. - On good news once the Institutions who loaded up with longs in anticipation of that good news have unloaded sufficiently to guarantee a nice profitable day, they stop selling and may even start buying again from those retail who leapt in with buys at the peak of the spike and are now being stopped out. Because after all, the news was good!

This is simply news reaction and in BK Live Trading I often take advantage of that dynamic by doing the exact opposite of what makes common sense and capture the “retrace profit” along with the dealers.

But news reaction is frankly chump change. The real money in FX trades is made on news response when a piece of data has far-reaching implications that go beyond the next few hours or even the next few days. A prime example of this dynamic at play was the RBNZ presser in March. The New Zealand central bank announced a clear shift to an accommodative stance, essentially warning the market that a rate cut was coming. The price instantly dropped but then actually consolidated and rallied for a few days after.

N00b traders would be forgiven for thinking that this was the end of the story, but for traders who actually understood news response this was just the beginning. That’s because the markets players who truly move prices -- the corporates, the hedge funds, the asset managers and the pension fund managers were making multi-month long adjustments to their positions that would inevitably have a directional impact on price. Sure enough a few weeks later the kiwi was substantially lower than post RBNZ and those traders who had the foresight and the patience to stay with the trade capitalized on the move.- For a major news shift like that, it takes a long time for the institutions to accumulate all the Shorts that they want, so they try to hold price high whilst they do just that - hour or days it doesn't matter to them - they have 24hr desks unlike retail traders who need to sleeo!

I often say that day trading is for dopamine. We all want it. We all need it. But just like junk food it’s not really a recipe for long term success. Dollars are made on the Daily. It’s boring. It’s tedious. It’s certainly not sexy, but it’s where the real money in FX is made.

*************************************************************************************************
  • #878
  • May 28, 2019 2:36pm May 28, 2019 2:36pm
Here is a really good webinar recording from Peter Davies (of Jigsaw trading). Incredible but I agree with 99% of what he says. The subjects are Handling 'grey area' where the market is 'vague' in between different phases and Scaling (mainly scaling in) during volatile Markets (= Moonshots to us Sharp Edge traders).:

https://www.jigsawtrading.com/effect...eid=e93edf0386
  • #879
  • May 29, 2019 5:07am May 29, 2019 5:07am
I posted this in the Sharp Edge traders' Self Help Group skype today (it refers to the link in the post above this one):

Has anybody viewed the Webinar recording in the link I put up yesterday?
I was kind of expecting people saying how good it is.

Being a SpotFX and CFDs trader at present my Scaling-in/Moonshot would need a much bigger move than Peter Davies was talking about, since my Stop Loss/Stop Profit would be much bigger than in the Futures.
I also liked the way he talked about vague market phases where you don't know which type of strategy to use - very few people talk about that even though it is a huge problem for us. Of course Ray does mention it, but in a sort of throw-away style i.e. 'If you don't see it, don't trade it!'

The only part I disagree with a little is about scaling into a losing position. It is something I do (having already planned it and calculated the overall %risk and maximum position size that I may end up with). Obviously I consider this style to be a fairly advanced way of trading tops and bottoms (fading them) and I try to do many more of the BSG/Squeeze and MOMO trades.
  • #880
  • Jun 2, 2019 5:39am Jun 2, 2019 5:39am
Another reasonable email from Boris Schlossbeg (of BK Forex) my comments in Blue:-

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In Trading We Sell Greed, but Fear is the True Secret

This was the first week in five that I lost money on my weekly trades in BK and yet it was the best week I had.
I started out very long loonie, thinking that a relatively hawkish BOC, the high price of oil and decent eco data would give my trades a boost. I was also bearish euro as the pair faced the turmoil of EU parliamentary elections, the slowdown in Germany and the nasty fight between Brussels and Rome.

I was right but it didn’t matter. The loonie was bid up ahead of good news and euro sold down ahead of bad data (Yes the Institutions trade the Forecasts/expectations, not just the actual news. In fact quite often they take their profit into the smaller traders trading the release in the supposed 'correct direction' - Boris has been around plenty long enough to know that !), so the story impact was minimal and prices went against me almost from the get-go. Yet in the end, I managed to lose very little money which is actually the perfect way to trade.

A few weeks ago I noted that the only way to trade successfully is with a two target process, where you take half the trade off at some short risk target and let the rest float looking to bank 2 times risk or more. That second half of the trade is basically a lottery ticket. The “long profit” trade only happens 20-25% of the time but when does hit target that pip gain is responsible for the bulk of your overall return.

This, of course, is what everyone who provides trading education sells. “Risk one dollar to make ten!” “Double your account in a month!” “Trade one hour a day and make five figures a month!” The trading business is replete with bullshit because of course, that’s what we want to hear. We not only want to make money, but we want to make “easy money” with very little risk and massive payouts on a weekly basis. All trading education appeals to our instinct for greed which of course is why most traders fail miserably. Yes, most but not all Retail Educators peddle bullsh1t.

Greed trips us up in a million different ways. It entices us to chase trades with too much size but more insidiously it makes us hold on to losers way beyond reason and prudence. Most conventional wisdom says that we lift our stops because we are afraid of losing money, but I actually think it’s the opposite. If we were truly afraid we would get out. Instead, I think we hate the idea of not making money so stay in the trade against rhyme and reason desperately trying to claw back to even one pip profit so that we can feel like a winner.

How many times have you been in a trade that was deep against you -- maybe even a few pips away from the stop -- and then rallied halfway to your entry thus cutting your losses significantly -- but you refused to get out, hoping that it would “turn around” only of course to lose it all in the end?

I don’t think there is a retail trader out there who hasn’t done that at least a dozen times. Agreed. The reality, of course, is that it is really hard to take losses just when things are starting to look up which is why I don’t even try. Our instinct for greed is impossible to tame so I prefer to work on my defensive skills.

The beauty of short/long exit structure is that it locks in a small profit and instantly goes to breakeven ensuring that you won’t lose money on the trade. Agreed, multi-unit is the easiest, most profitable way to trade. It essentially creates an institutional process for fear. And fear is highly undervalued in my opinion. Fear is the key factor that keeps us alive. Fear is what makes us spit out tainted food so we don’t get poisoned. Fear is what keeps us from crossing a five-lane highway in the middle of rush hour. Fear is what keeps us from rollerblading down a 3000-foot mountain road without a helmet ( Yes my younger stupider self actually did that once )

Unlike the romantic notion of bravery which gets all the accolades fear never gets good press, but as General Patton once said, “The object of war is not to die for your country but to make the other bastard die for his.”
There is a saying that applies to several professions:'There are old traders and there a bold traders, but there are no old,bold traders!'

Trading is very much the same way. Returns are made not through big gains but through avoidance of massive losses. Last week I was able to lock down small gains in EURGBP and EURCAD shorts before they blew up against me and that kept my weekly loss very manageable and kept my overall pip tally way in the green.

Hooray for fear. It’s the secret to trading.
I prefer to use the word caution rather than fear - since to me fear is either paralysing, or generates and unthinking fleeing response.
The secret to trading is that there is no secret - just work fitting all the pieces of the puzzle together: Sentiment, OrderFlow, Price Action, Value and the Business Plans of the major Market Participants. - Not difficult, but not for the lazy!

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