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  • #841
  • Mar 30, 2019 12:32pm Mar 30, 2019 12:32pm
Quoting ianf0ster
{quote} You may not be making one of the common mistakes, but since they are common mistakes it means lots of people make them: 1. There is no such thing as a correlated market that always leads, or always mean reverts. AT least not for trader with a retail sized account. 2. In choosing to use a correlated market as a value guide for your traded market, it should not be too correlated otherwise it won't give any trade opportunities (big divergences). 3. The best, but most dangerous correlations are ones where the correlated market is something that...
and last but not least look ahead bias .
I saw many promising strategies with linear or even exponential profit line that obviously have not been working in production due the look ahead bias

Speaking about correlation trading I think that the biggest obstacle for us, the retailers, is to overcome a trading costs. As you rightly emphasised these kind of trading usually does not cover swaps, spread etc.
  • #842
  • Apr 7, 2019 6:55am Apr 7, 2019 6:55am
You only have to wait a little while before you read some cr4p, which is only true for people who don't understand how to use Value in the Markets.

Boris Schlossberg again -talking exclusively about indicator based trading, but too dumb to realise that!

Here is his latest email ( My comments in Blue):

*************************************************************************
You’ll Never Understand Trading Unless You Read This

https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...7lDLp2pO9g--~C
If you’ve run hundreds of backtests over the past few days like I did you come to a startling conclusion.

There are no winning trading systems. - Not true, both 'the MAX ' ( = 'Mr. Carlsberg' ) and 'Sharp Edge' (= Ray de Medici) are winning systems/methods because they use underlying principles which have been true for ages (some true every since there have been markets, other since electronic trading).

There are only systems that drawdown a little less than they run up. - I wouldn't call a >70% win rate and a > 80% win rate, both with average win size bigger than average loss as having a drawdown a little less than they run up - LOL!

EVERY SINGLE system you trade will lose money if you trade it long enough and sometimes it will lose a lot. -Only if you trade a poor system/method, or if your money management is sh1t!
I call this the Law of Paying the Pip Piper. Basically, the absolute best that you can hope for is that your drawdowns are slightly less or equal to run-ups. So that a system that just made you 300 pips over the past few months will -- as surely as day follows night -- now proceed to lose you 150 to 250 pips over the next few weeks.

Why does this happen? Because market regimes change and every single system is optimized for one or the other set of conditions -- continuity or mean reversion -- or to put in more colloquial terms -- trend or tread. - Not true! In continuity (trending) markets systems that bet on continuation will thrive. In markets that tread the exact opposite bet pays out. There is only one letter difference between trend and tread but that tiny change is all you need to make a lot of pips or lose them.

Trading is the closest thing we have in the modern world to the natural state of volatility. Our hunter-gatherer ancestors fully appreciated the idea that tomorrow will not at all be like today and more importantly that pleasant comfortable weather will inevitably turn into a miserable multi-week storm or rain and destruction. But the very goal of civilization is to completely annihilate the volatility of everyday life. We built massive furnaces up North which allow us to live in comfortable 65F weather in Sweden and we build massive air conditioning complexes in the south allowing us to do the very same in Las Vegas. We smooth out our income streams through the magic of “salaries” and smooth out our food supply chain through some of the most complex logistics ever imaginable so that it becomes as natural to eat a peach in December as in June regardless of whether it comes from Chile or Georgia. So little wonder that our modern mind, so carefully protected from the vagaries of nature is, so coddled by the myriad of tools of civilization is so ill-equipped to handle trading.

That’s why backtests are so useful. -Only if they cover a long enough time period and different market phases! Not because they will provide us with the one answer to true riches. No, they’ll never do that. But they will show us the narrative of the trade. Like time-lapse photography, they will compress thousands of hours of market action into just a couple of minutes of results so that we clearly see how and why we will fail and how and why we will succeed. In short, the backtest will “uncivilize” our minds and open us up to the true nature of the task.

Now lest you think that these principles matter only to us lowly system traders and don’t apply to stock pickers, allow me to tell you about an exchange I had with the great Eddy Elfenbein this year. Eddy runs a great newsletter called Crossing Wall Street and you probably have seen him many times on CNBC’s Trading Nation. He is truly a great stock picker and his newsletter has beaten the S&P many years running. One time Eddy tweeted out about LUV (Southwest Airlines)
“Here’s a long-term chart of Southwest. Note the log y-axis to see how amazing the stock has been. Up 26,600% since 1980. RIP Herb Kelleher.”
I took look at that chart more closely and realized something and responded back to him,
“And yet Eddie it lost 75% of value between 2001-2010 -- that required real belief to hold on.” (This btw was way before its current troubles with Boeing’s 737).
To his credit, Eddy fully acknowledged that point. - Is anybody who reads his newsletter (apart from Boris), dumb enough to think you can just 'Buy and Hold' your way to riches with a single stock ?

So the point is -- if you trade you always have to Pay the Pip Piper -- even if you don’t trade FX.

***************************************************************************************************************
  • #843
  • Apr 10, 2019 12:14pm Apr 10, 2019 12:14pm
The 'Sammy' trade on Oil Inventories worked really well today, if you drill down to the 5min chart there were even more successful entries :
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  • #844
  • Apr 11, 2019 4:21am Apr 11, 2019 4:21am
The new Micro e-mini Futures on the S&P, the Nssdaq, the Russell and the Dow launch on 6th May they are 1/10th the size of the standard e-mini contracts.

Here are links for information on them:
https://www.cmegroup.com/cme-group-f...o-futures.html

https://www.cmegroup.com/education/f...x-futures.html

Here is a link for a webinar on them by David Lerman, senior director of education at the CME group on Thursday April 25th at 11am Eastern Time (10:00 Central Time): https://infinityfutures.com/webinarsLerman425.aspx
  • #845
  • Apr 13, 2019 11:56am Apr 13, 2019 11:56am
Boris Schlossbergs email is rather boring this week, so I thought I would show a more interesting one from Lance Beggs (of Your Trading Coach).
Note that These diagrams are of Lance Beggs' style of trading rather than Ray's or mine (and naturally Ray's style is superior to Lance, but that is what you would expect since Lance trades without using Value, or even Volume).

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continued in next post due to limitation on number of pictures in a single post.
  • #846
  • Apr 13, 2019 11:58am Apr 13, 2019 11:58am
Continued from previous post.

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Two things that I like about the way Lance handled these trades are:-
1. He is using 2 unit initial entries and multiple exits, dynamically managing the trade - so he very rarely if ever has to suffer a complete Stop Out at the initial SL.
2. He scales in on the main trade after having taken a precautionary Partial exit.
  • #847
  • Apr 19, 2019 8:02am Apr 19, 2019 8:02am
Quoting ianf0ster
2. I can't understand how big a dumbass Boris was before he got sick - these insights he now says he's had about his trading should be obvious to anybody who has traded for more than a few months. You shouldn't need to get sick in order to see thinks that are so obvious!
This actually made me laugh out loud this morning! Maybe he had a near-death experience?
  • #848
  • Apr 19, 2019 8:28am Apr 19, 2019 8:28am
Quoting ianf0ster
You only have to wait a little while before you read some cr4p, which is only true for people who don't understand how to use Value in the Markets.
You don't even need that. Ray was teaching this morning how to enter and exit trades using nothing but price action and volume.

Quoting ianf0ster
"There are no winning trading systems." - Not true, both 'the MAX ' ( = 'Mr. Carlsberg' ) and 'Sharp Edge' (= Ray de Medici) are winning systems/methods because they use underlying principles which have been true for ages (some true every since there have been markets, other since electronic trading).
I haven't traded "The MAX", it's only slightly less confusing that Ray's value lines on his charts, LOL.

Quoting ianf0ster
"There are only systems that drawdown a little less than they run up." - I wouldn't call a >70% win rate and a > 80% win rate, both with average win size bigger than average loss as having a drawdown a little less than they run up - LOL!
EVERY SINGLE DAY this week, I called winning trades - direction and targets - on the ES at open, using nothing but simple price action, volume, and market structure details that Ray teaches. I called two trades a day, and every one was at least $500/contract winner, except one small ($50) loser. I learned another trick this morning that is just another data point that would either confirm or deny direction, but I didn't know about it this week (well, I knew about it, but I didn't know how to use the information).

Quoting ianf0ster
"EVERY SINGLE system you trade will lose money if you trade it long enough and sometimes it will lose a lot." -Only if you trade a poor system/method, or if your money management is sh1t!
I trade with 4-tick stops on the ES. For people who say that's too tight, I would suggest that their entries aren't precise enough.

I'm not special. I don't have an encyclopedic memory. I fell off a horse and suffered a bad concussion 5 years ago, so my memory isn't as good as it used to be. But I've taken a handful of techniques that Ray teaches and studied and studied until I understood them well enough to call 75% good trades, then 80%, then 90% this week (8 winners, 1 small loser).

In a trading world full of posers, fakes, and "trading systems" that lose more than they win or have terrible drawdowns, Ray is the real deal.
  • #849
  • Apr 20, 2019 12:37pm Apr 20, 2019 12:37pm
Quoting n7ekg
EVERY SINGLE DAY this week, I called winning trades - direction and targets - on the ES at open, using nothing but simple price action, volume, and market structure details that Ray teaches. I called two trades a day, and every one was at least $500/contract winner, except one small ($50) loser. I learned another trick this morning that is just another data point that would either confirm or deny direction, but I didn't know about it this week (well, I knew about it, but I didn't know how to use the information). I trade with 4-tick stops on the...
Hi n7ekg,
Nice to hear that you are doing so well and STILL IMPROVING!

You mentioned Boris Schlossberg, his latest email is another mixture of both nonsense and things which should be obvious to all except the newest greenest traders.
  • #850
  • Apr 20, 2019 1:20pm Apr 20, 2019 1:20pm
And here is Boris' latest email (with my comments in blue:
**********************************************************************************************

Dear Ian

The Only Money Management System that Works in Trading - A big claim and false of course! There are many money management systems for trading which 'work'. However the key, invariably ignored, point is that for a money management (= trade management) system to 'work' it must be tailored both to the personality and to the trading style of the trader. This SHOULD BE BLOODY OBVIOUS!

By now, everyone should be familiar with the Pareto distribution. Named after an Italian economist from the late 19th century it is colloquially known as the “80-20 rule”. In many disciplines in life, 80% of results come from 20% of factors.

Pareto first noticed the phenomenon with respect to land ownership in Italy where 80% of the land was owned by just 20% of the population. The distribution is not always exact but it is a good general approximation for how things work in real life. The Pareto principle shows up in phenomena as diverse as geography (80% of the population lives in 20% of cities in the US) software (80% of all computer errors in Microsoft products was caused by 20% of bugs) to of course income distribution (where roughly 80% of all assets in the US are owned by 20% of the population).

The Pareto principle is part of the larger structure called power laws and love it or hate it is an inextricable part of life that we need to accept if we are to understand how the secret of success.

Nowhere is the Pareto principle more evident than in financial markets which are the very quintessence of power laws in action with most spoils going to the very few. In trading, the universal truth is that 80% of your profits will come from 20% of your trades, or conversely if you choose to trade like an insurance company 80% of your losses (more like 90% in real life) will come from just 10%-20% of your bets.

This is precisely what makes trading so challenging for most people. It is psychologically impossible to accept losing 8 out of 10 times only to make everything back on just 2 big bets. -It isn't impossible, just difficult. But it isn't even necessary - there are several (perhaps even many systems/methods which have a win% of over 50% . As I said in a previous post, it is relatively easy to find one which has a better than 70% win rate.
It’s especially so because after losing 3 or 4 times in a row most traders pass up on a setup -- which inevitably turns out to be the one trade that is the winner that pays for all the losers. - I agree that this is a psych problem many traders face, even with a high win% system/method. But it is so much worse with a crazy system like Boris proposes when you read on - LOL!

Essentially trading is the art of looking for lottery tickets -- just read the history of any of the great traders from Soros to Tudor Jones to even Jesse Livermore and that fact become obvious. - Livermore was much more of a gambler than a trader. Soros added big to trades which looked promising and cut those which didn't, so although his win% may not have been high he WASN'T RISKING ANYWHERE NEAR AS MUCH ON HIS LOSING TRADES AS ON HIS WINNERS. - unlike Boris who appears to risk as much on his worst trades as on his best ones!

So how do you create a money management system to accommodate the Pareto principle and at the same time make it psychologically palatable? The only way I know how to achieve that goal is with a short exit/long exit structure or as K and I always call it T1/T2. The idea is to always trade with 2 units. The exit on the 1st unit should be slightly less than the stop and in an ideal world allow you to win 60% of those trades. Then you move the stop on the 2nd unit to breakeven and aim for at least two times risk and maybe even three times risk on the second part of the trade. -The ONLY way Boris knows? I will be charitable and suggest he means the SIMPLEST way he knows! Personally almost all of my trades use a minimum of 3 units because that gives you much more flexibility of Dynamic Trade Management. Ray suggests that if you aren't Dynamically managing your trade then you aren't actually managing it at all! Instead with fixed Stops and Targets etc. you are allowing the bigger traders in your market to 'manage your trade to THEIR greatest advantage'!

This week in my coaching webinar we ran test after test of our trading strategy against a variety of major currency pairs looking at the past 100 trades in each. Inevitably the T2 target was hit between 19%-25% of the time, proving the Pareto principle right. -I suggest that examining only 100 trades does not prove anything, though it may suggest something.

But!

Although on the face of it such payout odds would seem to be a losing system (run 10 trades with 50 pip stops and 100 pip targets and only win 2 out of 10 times) the blended strategy actually proved to be very profitable.

The reason the T1/T2 strategy worked was that the short exit eliminated about 20% of additional losses. As Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger often say the key to their success is not picking winners, but avoiding as many losers are possible.

The T1/T2 structure offers two key benefits. First it skews the math in your favor making the overall results positive or far less negative because it minimizes the number of losses, but more importantly, it creates a much more human-friendly trading environment by increasing the total number of winning trades. - Yes, it does make it easier psychologically. However no amount of messing with fixed rules for Targets and Stops can actually skew the probability in your favour, however when you both A). Have an Edge! and B). Tailor your initial SL and T1 to take advantage of the nature of your Edge. Then YES you can IMPROVE THE PROBABILITY of having a long series of NET PROFITABLE TRADES.

By the way one final note on our tests this week -- only two out of ten currencies we tested produced positive results that were responsible for the vast majority of the overall pip profit, proving that the Pareto principle operates on the portfolio level just as it does on the single trade level.

There is nothing we can do about power laws in nature, but to accept their presence. But we can survive and thrive in the market environment if we start using the T1/T2 money management system to conquer both Mother Nature and our own behavioral biases.

***********************************************************************************************
  • #851
  • Apr 20, 2019 2:02pm Apr 20, 2019 2:02pm
Quoting ianf0ster
{quote} Hi n7ekg, Nice to hear that you are doing so well and STILL IMPROVING! You mentioned Boris Schlossberg, his latest email is another mixture of both nonsense and things which should be obvious to all except the newest greenest traders.
Thanks! I saw your post. His stats are meaningless, because each trade stands on it's own. It's like one of the first things you learn in statistics and probability class in college - correlation does not equal causation! In other words, if you take a nickel out of your pocket and flip it 99 times, and 99 times it comes up heads, what's the probability that it will come up heads on that 100th flip? Most people would say that it's an almost certainty, but the truth is, the probability is 50%, because the coin flips aren't connected in any way (the probability is 55% for a quarter, but that's because the quarter is slightly heavier on one side than the other).

Ray did a session on Friday about the same thing, about people picking "magic" numbers for moving averages and claiming the "magic" number has a higher winning average than any other. Anyone who has taken statistical math knows better. If you take any chart and put a guppy study on it (a study that is composed of many different moving averages), you will notice that it's impossible to predict exactly which moving average price action is going to bounce off of. I do this demonstration with new traders that are absolutely convinced that there's a magic set of numbers that they can plug into their MA, MACD, RSI, or stochastic that will guarantee them winning trades. The problem with all of these is that they are lagging indicators, and as such are reacting to market conditions - you're *always* going to be behind the 8-ball.
  • #852
  • Apr 26, 2019 11:26am Apr 26, 2019 11:26am
Warning Low Asian Session Liquidity Warning 29th April to 6th May (Tokyo time):

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Back on morning of 3rd January 2019 (Tokyo time) we had a 'Flash Crash' on the Yen pairs (Yen strength), due to a combination of Risk Off unexpected news, plus low liquidity caused by a Japanese Holiday.

Here is what I wrote about it in this thread after I went back to my charts in the UK morning:

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"
I have just been looking user comments here in ForexFactory, reminding me about how many opinionated people there are who are at the same time almost completely ignorant about the subject they are shouting about!

1. Action like that is NOT caused by a 'Big Dog' or a Central Bank - those guys CAN'T trade during periods of such low liquidity BECAUSE THEY CAN'T GET ENOUGH SIZE ON ! So all it was is Stop-Loss cascade.

2. There were so very many risk factors already known about: US Shutdown, UK PM May's dead-duck Brexit deal, US -China trade war impact, Apple's poor forecast .
NONE of those were big enough to make much impact during normal liquidity, but last night we had a combination of :
A). A low liquidity week because many desks not fully back from holidays.
B). After US close
c). Japanese Holiday - and the Yen is the obvious hedge (apart from Gold) for all those events

3. It only takes a sell order of 2 lots to move price 100's of pips if there is only a 1 lot below it on the limit Order Book.

4. In such circumstances a normal Stop Loss (even a Sell Stop) in the market will not protect you because there are no matching Buy orders and you need Buyers to Sell your position to!

5. In extreme cases, all Guaranteed Stop losses will do is to bankrupt your Broker, because they can't find anybody to take the other side of the trade either! Not in this case because it mostly reversed quite quickly.


The number 1 rule of trading is 'Don't lose your Account'!
Nothing will protect you if you are on the wrong side of a low liquidity move like last night, so don't trade during such low liquidity - it is even more dumb than opening a trade just before NFP or an Interest Rate announcement not knowing the announcement is due out!

Post Script: Some may ask why the Aussie Dollar moved as well as the Yen. The answer is that the AUD is a Commodity currency, hence it is strongly affected by Risk On/Off sentiment and because of the local time, the Australian Traders were at their desks ! "
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  • #853
  • Apr 29, 2019 2:16pm Apr 29, 2019 2:16pm
Sorry, but Forex Factory only allow me one PM per 24hrs.

So here is my reply to a PM I received a few minutes ago:

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
To: ianf0ster | From: xxxxxxx | Sent: Apr 29, 2019 7:22pm
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It's all recorded? if so I'm fine with that and i can learn at my own pace.

____________________________________________________________
Hi,
Yes, all the course (and more) is recorded. In fact even those who attend the course in real-rime also need to view the recordings at least once and possibly as much as 3 times in order to have taken sufficient marked-up screenshots and notes.
There are no course materials except for the recordings - which is why I advise students to join my group where they can discuss their understanding of things and ask questions about both the course content and about Broker, platforms, Resources, Money Management, Psychology, free/cheap resources etc

Ian.
  • #854
  • May 3, 2019 8:21am May 3, 2019 8:21am
One of Ray's students just posted this:

(08:50 am) F. C. : Look what my sister gifted me yesterday, because all Saturdays I was [am] saying the same! lol....
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(08:52 am) F. C.: Ray is the one to blame about this!
  • #855
  • May 5, 2019 5:10pm May 5, 2019 5:10pm
Boris Schlossberg has 2nd (more sensible) thoughts about automatic versus Discretionary trading:

*************************************************************************************************************************************************************

Discretionary vs. Rules Based How to Succeed in each

This month, after endless prodding from K I went back to prop trading. Surprisingly, it’s going well. Even more surprisingly I don’t hate it. I know, I know -- for the past six months I’ve been screaming that the future of trading is rules-based algos, but trading prop has actually made me appreciate the art of the former as well really clarify the science of the latter.

Let’s agree on one thing. Prop is never going to go away. Human beings will always want to make decisions and furthermore the world of solely algos creates a recipe for disaster as machine choices either bring the markets to a halt (perfect equilibrium) where no trade can make money because all information is instantly factored into price) or worse markets crash with no support in sight -- (2011 anyone?) but this time REALLY NO SUPPORT which could bring the whole system to it knees.

In any case, human judgment will always be a part of markets because markets are ultimately human enterprises. So it’s good to think about how prop differs from algo and more importantly how each approach has vastly different end goals that we need to understand.

This week the Beyond Meat IPO launched to a 150% pop on the first day of trading, so hamburgers are really on my mind. Besides who doesn’t love a burger? Last week in Cali I tried BM burger right next to a “real” one and I really liked it more than meat -- but I will leave the sectarian battle to the food purists. What I want to propose today is that prop versus algo is very much like Minetta Tavern versus McDonalds.

Most of you probably haven’t heard about Minetta Tavern burger, but it is considered to be the best in the city. Again, I have no desire to fight a food war here (I am a guy who actually thought that burgers at Legal Seafood were some of the best I ever tasted, so I will leave my culinary judgment out of it), Instead I want you to think what it takes to prepare a perfect burger at a fancy restaurant. Each patty is carefully selected, checked a hundred times over for proper fat to meat content, individually cooked and dressed and presented to the patron in the most appetizing manner. Furthermore, if any flaw is discovered on the plate, the whole thing is quickly thrown away and a new one is made.

Prop trades are very similar. Each weekend I pour over all the charts, consider the event risk facing me, think about the current sentiment and positioning and try to put three perfectly curated trade ideas “on the plate”. Furthermore, if any of those ideas turn “sour” due to some fresh information in the market, I may decide to scrap the whole thing well before it hits my stop.


Now think about Mickey D’s. They are not trying to produce a great hamburger. They are trying to produce a “good enough” hamburger that they can serve a trillion times. That means that they take a lot of short cuts with their product, but on the other hand, produce the exact same patty in Dubai as in Detroit. No one at Mickey D’s can afford the Hamlet-like hesitation about the “perfect fat texture of their product”. Mickey D’s is looking for success in the aggregate whereas Minetta Tavern is looking for perfection in the particular.

And that ultimately is the difference between prop and rules-based algo.

The biggest problem most traders make is they attempt to turn each Mickey D’s patty into a Minetta tavern masterpiece and that is the road to ruin. Algo trades are not meant to be perfect. That means that they will suck a lot. They will be subject to idiosyncratic wobbles in the market. They will sometimes post six, seven, eight losers in a row -- something that would horrify a prop trader. But that is perfectly normal. As long as your quality control remains in place -- and for algo trades that means that you’ve created the best possible risk-reward structure and have not overleveraged the account in any way -- the long term expectancy will be positive and those pips will pile up.

The one key difference -- and this is perhaps the most important point of all -- pips profits do not pile up like hamburger profits. There probably no business that has less volatility than a McDonalds franchise. By that I mean, there are probably very few MCD franchises in the world that lose money on a daily basis EVER. That, of course, is totally not the case with algo trading. Pips come in batches and often leave in batches and you have to fully be prepared for a very lumpy distribution.

But in the end -- whether you trade prop or algo or both -- KNOW the DIFFERENCES -- it will help you succeed with each approach.
************************************************************************************************************************************************************

Personally I am in the Pro/Discretionary camp because I am just about smart enough to realise that I'm not smart enough to code something to replicate most of what I do in my discretionary trading, I don't like giving up control and I like both a high win% and a medium reward:risk.

I have an BSc (Honours) degree in Mathematics and Computer Science and spent over 35yrs as a support programmer, supporting Operating Systems and databases. So you may feel you are smarter than me and a better programmer /analyst - in which case, go ahead and design and write your own Automatic trading systems. Just be aware that even the major financial companies who have invested millions of dollars in this field don't let their Algos run completely unsupervised!
  • #856
  • May 9, 2019 8:47am May 9, 2019 8:47am
Making people feel bad and throwing them a crumb - LOL !
Marked up screenshot from Ray's live trade room yesterday:-

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Note 'Mr. Carlsberg' is the nickname I use for 'probably the best Retail Trader in the World' - who doesn't want his real name mentioned !
The entries on the above chart were those that normal student of Ray would have taken (NOT those of Mr. Carlsberg who uses non-timeframe charts).
Such a 'normal student' of Ray's could have made approx +19% if starting with a 2% Risk on that 50 pip G/U downswing.
Naturally 'Mr. Carlsberg' made a little more than that !
  • #857
  • Edited 12:12pm May 10, 2019 9:49am | Edited 12:12pm
Now that is what I call a good week - LOL !
Note that this guy is extremely risk averse so his usual initial risk is just 0.5%

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Part of a conversation about the supreme skill and fantastic results of 'Mr. Carlsberg' (above):

C T: "... I’m trying to hone in on multiple entries, scaling in. I can’t get the maths right... I’m getting there... I think we’re always improving, that trading, right?

I F: " Multiple entry and scaling out is the easy part. Don't even try to 'Moonshot' until you are confident that you have mastered the scaling out because the 'Moonshot' requires great scaling out so you can re-enter and build up size! "

I F: "My best ever day was +72%. His was well over 100% and his initial risk was always less than 1/4th of mine! But who needs 100% in a day, I am quite happy with 20% per week - LOL ! .... ..... but don't imagine you could get numbers as good as 'Mr. Carlsberg' - just as we can't get numbers as good as Ray, none of us, not even Nessy!"
  • #858
  • May 11, 2019 12:21pm May 11, 2019 12:21pm
What makes people like Ray de Medici and 'Mr. Carlsberg' great traders ?

(Although Ray himself would only rate himself at 9/10 as a trader but 10/10 as Quant/Strategist/Analyst, in Retail terms he is a great trader because in Retail a trader has also to be a Strategist, an Analyst and a Risk Manager - all different jobs in the institutional space.)

1. The first thing is being passionately interested in trading and the markets. - If you don't have the interest in it (for its own sake) you will never to the work required. But if you are passionately interested then the 'work' is like a 'hobby' rather than 'work'.

2. The second thing is having a good basic education on how the markets work and at least one good way of trading them one that works for you!
Ray was trained as part of his first jobs in finance working for UK trading Banks. Then he expanded his knowledge working at more senior Analyst, Strategist and finally Quant jobs.
'Mr. Carlsberg' also worked for Banks, but in an IT role and although that sparked his interest in trading and the markets, he learned very little from his work. His journey to being great started with a retail course by the late Dr. Jim Pruitt which is called 'The MAX '. He became their best ever student and after Dr Pruitt died he became the lead teacher for the course, eventually expanding its scope with more advance courses. He also never stops learning and so keeps coming on Ray's courses - at least once every year!

3. But there are many traders who have done MAX courses, or courses from Ray. Several of those students achieve exceptional results, but still Ray and 'Mr. Carlsberg' stand out. Most of us will never even get close to their achievements because they both have exceptional stamina and sustained focus.
Ray only sleeps 3 hrs or 4 hrs per day during the week and has been doing that for a very long time. When he isn't teaching his 'Sharp Edge course' he works 15 hrs to 16 hrs per day 5 days per week including almost all public holidays, though he does take Xmas Day and New Years Day off and has a short day on 4th July due to the US markets being closed!
'Mr. Carlsberg' used to trade 3 days per week (even when teaching a course) and on days when he traded he would trade for up to 13 hrs with a Scalper-like intense focus,squeezing the last pip out of a trend and building up his trade size to the maximum while always keeping his risk extremely low. I doubt if he will be trading with quite such intensity now, since most people no longer have their previous stamina after a tripple heart bypass even if they still have the desire!
To put that in perspective, in my days working in IT I had some long intense days. I supported the critical software - Operating system and Database, so I was on-call 24x7 except when uncontactable on holiday ( yes, they would still try to get hold of me even when I was on holiday). There were several days when I worked the evening and overnight fixing a problem to end up getting back home around 24hrs after I had left for work the prior morning. My longest 'day was over 30 hrs straight with no breaks - just eating snacks at my desk.
But even I in my prime could not match those two for sustained focus - not even close!
  • #859
  • May 16, 2019 11:04am May 16, 2019 11:04am
There is still plenty of dumb money out there for the taking!

I just saw that priceaction1 has started ignoring me:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Since I am classified as a 'Commercial' I can't have posted anything he doesn't like in his threads.
So I can only assume that he objects to my threads - great!
That means he is another dumb-ass just begging to be separated from his money.
But it gets better, he has several hundred Followers and Buddies - now we are talking. LOL !
  • #860
  • May 16, 2019 3:06pm May 16, 2019 3:06pm
Hello. Quick question.
Buying the "Sharp Edge Suite" i would be able to view all the videos of Ray. I mean everything he has done all those years? Even the first one?

Thank you.
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