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  • #501
  • May 17, 2019 12:06pm May 17, 2019 12:06pm
Quoting FXsniper111
{quote} I have played aound in my head with a 5 ore 10% cutoff on the whole basket as i have said earlier i like the system very much and the EA is greate,but i have chosen some uncorrealated pairs instead and no GBP for this weeks test"Actually havent traded GBP much at all lately" and i had six closes on demo and closed out with 25 pips today not to have open trades over weekend.Thinking on going live with that setup and pairs next week mayby with a 5-7% cutoff because i havent had DD over 1.5% this week.Will see. EDIT:I had it at 30/70 on all...


Yeah, I also thought about using uncorrelated pairs and an SL. If you do, please share what pairs, etc.
  • #502
  • May 17, 2019 12:19pm May 17, 2019 12:19pm
Amazing. At historic lows for the system. Going to shutdown my demo and observe. Will start another demo at half the risk.
  • #503
  • May 17, 2019 12:46pm May 17, 2019 12:46pm
Quoting dbdan
Amazing. At historic lows for the system. Going to shutdown my demo and observe. Will start another demo at half the risk.
310 pips drop since high Wednesday...
Insanityoing same ting over expecting different results..Einstein
  • #504
  • May 17, 2019 12:57pm May 17, 2019 12:57pm
You have two whammy’s this week. Trading the Pound with the Brexit mess and the Cad pair with Trump agreeing today to drop the steel tariffs on Canada. Couldn’t have been the 2 worse pairs this week.

Cheers

Jeff
I EAT PIPS
  • #505
  • May 17, 2019 1:56pm May 17, 2019 1:56pm
Quoting leppozdrav
{quote} That's great man. Now imagine this downtrend to continue with new inside bars and not reverse like it did. how many losing grid positions would I have and how much more of them would you have. The difference in risk management is huge. Seeing them loosing trades, might make you believe.
I'm not having those problems. This kind of system is not apropriate for trends in the wrong direction but very powerful in ranging markets or if you recognize a trend, you might open positions manually in the right direction because trends can last terribly long, long time...
For that reason I would never let it run unattanted. I always check the current market conditions and decide if there are opportunities to enter the market. If the cook has oversalted the soup, it will not taste better if he adds more salt...
Indicators like RMI, RSI and other overbought/oversold indicators should become combined with any trend indicator for confirmation if it is the right direction. Check your settings for a much longer time period instead of somewhat more than 2 years and see, if your settings are still lead the EA into profit.
However, to avoid situations like the current drama of GBP, for trading without stress and without permanent observation I prefer to let run in parallel the trendfollower configuration of my EA at 1 position per trade, 40 pips fixed stoploss and 2% in capital risk...
See results on GBPCAD of 11 years attached.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Channel_Night_GBPCAD_20080104-20190509_SL=40_Risk=2_MaxLot=2.00.png Size: 71 KB
  • #506
  • May 17, 2019 2:00pm May 17, 2019 2:00pm
I'm skeptical to find that all the back test produced only 1 instance of a 38% DD and today the system is beyond that. Further enforces the idea that back tests don't really tell the entire story.

What the other pairs should be doing right now is offsetting at least some of the DD from the GBPCAD but it's not.


Interested in what Ryan has to say about the current situation because this shouldn't be happening.


I mean what if it went down another 500 pips. Does the EA just keep taking more trades? Can't do that forever.

Want to cover all the corners before I put any EA live. Been burned too many times.
  • #507
  • May 17, 2019 2:37pm May 17, 2019 2:37pm
Quoting dbdan
I'm skeptical to find that all the back test produced only 1 instance of a 38% DD and today the system is beyond that. Further enforces the idea that back tests don't really tell the entire story.
If the backtest result refers to 1 pair...but the EA runs 3 pairs currently...and all 3 involves CAD...
Would that shine some light on the current drawdown?

Do you see some easy ways how to lower that current drawdown?
( Hint: Les than 3 pairs; less CAD exposure; higher equity; smaller lot sizes...pick any, or a few, it all, and look again at the drawdown!)
The quick math example: what would be if 0.06 lots replaced by 0.01, and the 0.12 lots by 0.02?
38% DD suddenly would be only 6.5%?
Would that be critical? Hardly.
Play around with other mentioned variables, too...

Of course if the return is adjusted too, and your month is up "only" 1-3%, many would shy away, as less an eye catcher. Though by all means would beat the banks, most funds, etc.
But that is where a reality check needed for many. To recalibrate expectations for real sustainable numbers.

It is great Ryan chose to share his EA.
It is unfortunate he chose a high risk setting to showcase it.
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #508
  • Edited 2:55pm May 17, 2019 2:43pm | Edited 2:55pm
Quoting dbdan
I'm skeptical to find that all the back test produced only 1 instance of a 38% DD and today the system is beyond that. Further enforces the idea that back tests don't really tell the entire story. What the other pairs should be doing right now is offsetting at least some of the DD from the GBPCAD but it's not. Interested in what Ryan has to say about the current situation because this shouldn't be happening. I mean what if it went down another 500 pips. Does the EA just keep taking more trades? Can't do that forever. Want to cover all the corners...
- The op went more aggressive then the recommended settings. (Should be around 31% now not 41%)
-It’s not a true hedge as you can see. I already mentioned it to cubby.
-This is worst time trade gbp as brexit
-back testing max drawdown was 59% in 10+ years. I think that was 1 pair gbpcad.
- it is a worry such a large drawdown has been achieved only 17 days.
-let us see if it recovers.
-cubby is going make a video about this dd , let’s see what he says. Best wait for his explanations.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #509
  • May 17, 2019 2:56pm May 17, 2019 2:56pm
Quoting Pip-Miner
{quote} - The op went more aggressive then the recommended settings. (Should be around 31% now not 41%) -It’s not a true hedge as you can see. I already mentioned it to cubby. -This is worst time trade gbp as brexit -back testing max drawdown was 59% in 10+ years. I think that was 1 pair gbpcad. - it is a worry such a large drawdown has been achieved only 17 days. -let us see if it recovers. -cubby is going make a video about this dd , let’s see what he says. Best wait for his explanations. {image}
My demo has been using Cubby's recommended lot sizes (.01 per $1000 for GBPCAD and .02 per $1000 for the other two pairs), and I have been as high as about 20% DD thus far. Not pretty, but certainly not catastrophic. I am more concerned with margin and the number of positions that have been opened thus far.
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #510
  • May 17, 2019 3:00pm May 17, 2019 3:00pm
Quoting turtlefan
{quote} My demo has been using Cubby's recommended lot sizes (.01 per $1000 for GBPCAD and .02 per $1000 for the other two pairs), and I have been as high as about 20% DD thus far. Not pretty, but certainly not catastrophic. I am more concerned with margin and the number of positions that have been opened thus far.
The dd also varies depending on what broker you use . Pepperstone has it at 30% currently. Exact files and recommended settings. Yes fees as well with number trades opened overnight . Hope they close soon.
  • #511
  • May 17, 2019 3:45pm May 17, 2019 3:45pm
Quoting Pip-Miner
{quote} The dd also varies depending on what broker you use . Pepperstone has it at 30% currently. Exact files and recommended settings. Yes fees as well with number trades opened overnight . Hope they close soon.
This particular demo is at TradersWay.
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #512
  • May 17, 2019 4:36pm May 17, 2019 4:36pm
I had two demo acc. one with the normal settings, now in -2889pips and 22% DD
the other one was with martingale1 set to true. this one now is 0 and closed
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #513
  • May 17, 2019 4:39pm May 17, 2019 4:39pm
Good points here. If 1 pair indeed had a DD of 59% 10+ years then I would run this with very reduced settings.

Demo was at Axitrader. It was at 30.18% DD when I decided to shut it down. I realized Ryan's setting are much higher. His was at 41% DD.
  • #514
  • May 17, 2019 4:40pm May 17, 2019 4:40pm
I just downloaded the EA and will test it out next week. Thank you for sharing. Can it trade during big news?
  • #515
  • May 17, 2019 10:11pm May 17, 2019 10:11pm
Just hold on it'll be a big trade
  • #516
  • May 18, 2019 5:48am May 18, 2019 5:48am
thats the problem with backtests...
people only optimize the parameters to the history, but trading in the future.
so after the future happenes, new results in backtest may be best and so on and so on.....

so often result in backtests is often not really worth the calculation.
the calculation of -39% maximum Drawdown is now with over 40% already broken, so any backtest history is useless and cant be used....
  • #517
  • May 18, 2019 6:04am May 18, 2019 6:04am
The danger is not really that it will blow up for that it needs to drop another 3-400 pips,but that it will go in range within say 200 pips and can stay there for weeks months without a close then the money is tied up and will not generate profit.That is why i am playing around with a 5-10% cutoff so you can get in new trades to get some closed baskets and make up for the loss and not spend weeks/months without generating anyting..And there is nothing saying that it will not drop another 500 pips also with the Brexit noice going on.
Insanityoing same ting over expecting different results..Einstein
  • #518
  • May 18, 2019 6:29am May 18, 2019 6:29am
Quoting FXsniper111
The danger is not really that it will blow up for that it needs to drop another 3-400 pips,but that it will go in range within say 200 pips and can stay there for weeks months without a close then the money is tied up and will not generate profit.That is why i am playing around with a 5-10% cutoff so you can get in new trades to get some closed baskets and make up for the loss and not spend weeks/months without generating anyting..And there is nothing saying that it will not drop another 500 pips also with the Brexit noice going on.
and the account will Margin Call after a new 100-180 pip move in the traded currencies, so not even this 500 pip move neccessary .
  • #519
  • May 18, 2019 8:12am May 18, 2019 8:12am
Quoting FXsniper111
The danger is not really that it will blow up for that it needs to drop another 3-400 pips,but that it will go in range within say 200 pips and can stay there for weeks months without a close then the money is tied up and will not generate profit.That is why i am playing around with a 5-10% cutoff so you can get in new trades to get some closed baskets and make up for the loss and not spend weeks/months without generating anyting..And there is nothing saying that it will not drop another 500 pips also with the Brexit noice going on.

Great idea really. I also have included a stoploss in my trading. I have a new setfile, that looks promising, although it doesn't make huge amounts of money, it looks extremely smooth and consistent, making it look promising for the future. I will test it out in the coming week.
  • #520
  • May 18, 2019 8:37am May 18, 2019 8:37am
Well USA lifted tariffs on Canada so...Its going to a gap down...question is how much and will this be a margin call. Could gap down more then 100 pips. This is going to be interesting week for sure.
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