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  • Ranger EA (Standard Risk 500:1 Leverage) | Demo Account XXXXX12
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Did a quick run with my strategy optimizer / analyser on GBPCAD 30 minute chart, 2018-2019
I used 10% of the data to optimize the settings, and used the remaining 90% for forward testing the settings found
Also ran a monte carlo test to make sure the results are not curve fitted

Now.. as you can see.. there are indeed better settings then the 20 pips gridsize & 50 pips take profit target
which will have a much lower drawdown. Offcourse we need to do some more testing and i'll be doing larger runs
but these first results are pretty promising


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2019.05.16 19:12:57.022 2019.01.09 21:48:42 RMI_EA_inside_candle_V3_license_320 EURUSD,H1: OrderSend error 134
Quoting ebeckers
Did a quick run with my strategy optimizer / analyser on GBPCAD 30 minute chart, 2018-2019 I used 10% of the data to optimize the settings, and used the remaining 90% for forward testing the settings found Also ran a monte carlo test to make sure the results are not curve fitted Now.. as you can see.. there are indeed better settings then the 20 pips gridsize & 50 pips take profit target which will have a much lower drawdown. Offcourse we need to do some more testing and i'll be doing larger runs but these first results are pretty promising {image}...

Nice work.
Is there a way for you to test more years? Because, in my experience, one year isn't enough. They would be great in one year, but not in the others, etc.
There is no need to backtest. The strategy is unprofitable in the long run. One crisis event and sharp multi thousand pip move on all currencies will erase all years of profitability. With a stop loss there may be room for improvement.
Quoting trickshady
There is no need to backtest. The strategy is unprofitable in the long run. One crisis event and sharp multi thousand pip move on all currencies will erase all years of profitability. With a stop loss there may be room for improvement.

PLEASE SHARE your strategy that profits 100% of the time even during major crises events with multi thousand pip movements, where your sl may slip half of the multi thousand pips... I mean, instead of constantly running the guys system down he has clearly used for years..

You know, GIVE SOMETHING, instead of just tearing others down for your own enjoyment... BUILD OTHERS UP for everyone's sake, instead of just self interest

Just a thought I had....
Quoting ebeckers
Did a quick run with my strategy optimizer / analyser on GBPCAD 30 minute chart, 2018-2019 I used 10% of the data to optimize the settings, and used the remaining 90% for forward testing the settings found Also ran a monte carlo test to make sure the results are not curve fitted Now.. as you can see.. there are indeed better settings then the 20 pips gridsize & 50 pips take profit target which will have a much lower drawdown. Offcourse we need to do some more testing and i'll be doing larger runs but these first results are pretty promising
hello ebeckers, is there any way i can learn this monte carlo method on forex? may be a good website or a you tube channel.?
and why dont you want the results to be curve fitted ?
thanx
Just for fun i ported the strategy to Ninjatrader 8. Playing with it on a sim account to see how it performs on the E-mini futures. Here are the result for the last 300 days on the 5 min chart
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  • Post #488
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  • Edited at 2:25am May 17, 2019 1:57am | Edited at 2:25am
Quoting eel
{quote} Sorry for the missunderstanding..., I ment like your head of course...
I see you are a tough case, so I will put it simply for you.
With setting tressholds to extremes like 10/90, you will avoid most of the trends. Since they are extremes, there is a bigger probability for a TREND REVERSAL. I guess you know that bounded Oscillators operate this way. I mean this is what you would want and what ea should suposed to do.

So no, I will NOT CATCH, most of the trends.
There is a bigger probability, I will AVOID most of them.

But there is always a first post, so you can read how the strategy works.
The biggest risk is not taking a risk.
Quoting Cubbybgood
{quote} This kind of talk ALWAYS happens when price moves like this and I hits DD. Yes, we are in DD. DD happens with ANY system! Get over it. There is no telling how low the GBPCAD will go but what I do know is the lower it goes, the more likely we are to have a bounce. This is somewhat normal DD for this system as of now. I say "somewhat" because this isn't your every day price movement. This is stemming from the brexit drama. I would give more updates today including a youtube video update but I have guests in my house till this weekend... I...
Good to see you back old friend.
Don't let the hecklers get to you bro, let your actions and results do the talking for you, Why should a lion turn around because a dog barked !!! you have nothing to prove Cubby, you are doing a great work friend, we who choose to leade from the front and fight will always be targeted by those who have failed, keep the faith, GW
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IMPROVISE ADAPT OVERCOME
Quoting leppozdrav
{quote} I see you are a tough case, so I will put it simply for you. With setting tressholds to extremes like 10/90, you will avoid most of the trends. Since they are extremes, there is a bigger probability for a TREND REVERSAL. I guess you know that bounded Oscillators operate this way. I mean this is what you would want and what ea should suposed to do. So no, I will NOT CATCH, most of the trends. There is a bigger probability, I will AVOID most of them. But there is always a first post, so you can read how the strategy works.
Seeing is believing...
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  • Post #491
  • Quote
  • Edited at 12:40pm May 17, 2019 6:34am | Edited at 12:40pm
Quoting eel
{quote} Seeing is believing... {image}
That's great man.

Now imagine this downtrend to continue with new inside bars and not reverse like it did. how many losing grid positions would I have and how much more of them would you have. The difference in risk management is huge. Seeing them loosing trades, might make you believe.
The biggest risk is not taking a risk.
Quoting forexn00b81
{quote} PLEASE SHARE your strategy that profits 100% of the time even during major crises events with multi thousand pip movements, where your sl may slip half of the multi thousand pips... I mean, instead of constantly running the guys system down he has clearly used for years.. You know, GIVE SOMETHING, instead of just tearing others down for your own enjoyment... BUILD OTHERS UP for everyone's sake, instead of just self interest Just a thought I had....
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...8#post12276548

Check out my previous post where I gave constructive feedback about the system. I explained what I don't like about it and how it can be improved. The biggest flaw is no stop loss. Although a sharp move like the swiss frank is unavoidable, a multi thousand move usually happens in a few months. Look at eurusd falling from 1.45 to 1.05. You will have plenty of time to get out if such an event happens. So please stop gambling and have a stop loss.
Quoting trickshady
{quote} https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...8#post12276548 Check out my previous post where I gave constructive feedback about the system. I explained what I don't like about it and how it can be improved. The biggest flaw is no stop loss. Although a sharp move like the swiss frank is unavoidable, a multi thousand move usually happens in a few months. Look at eurusd falling from 1.45 to 1.05. You will have plenty of time to get out if such an event happens. So please stop gambling and have a stop loss.

There are ways to have a stoploss here.
Either by every trade or some kind of max loss with the close all EA.
Yes. This has been discussed earlier in the thread. OP ran backtests using a stoploss and said monthly profit comes in at 2-3% instead of 5+%. It is his preference to use the EA without a stoploss, but that's up to each person that runs the robot. It's your risk and your money.

Quoting mankindeg
{quote} There are ways to have a stoploss here. Either by every trade or some kind of max loss with the close all EA.
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
Realized my demo account is now taking lower lot trades due to the decrease in equity. I had it at 0.10 to start but now it's taking 0.09 lots.
I am sure everyone have seen GCAD have made new low and climbing some again,but with all the brexit noice not easy to see where the bottom really is.I am not complaining the system its not normal this weeknes in GBP,but have to expect the abnormal also,
As stated earlier the Pound pairs are too risky now to trade with Brexit.

Cheers

Jeff
I EAT PIPS
Quoting mrdfx
Hmm interesting, lets see this recover.... Btw I'm using the exact same set files on a ECN zero account. {image}
Minus 3000+ pips now, not so fun anymore.

It does translate to 28% DD which is still within my acceptable risk tolerance for DD so we still ok, but if GBP or CAD take a another dip in the coming week we could be in for a tough recovery.

This is when we start to wait patiently for that saying... "What goes up must come down and vice versa".
Truth is like poetry. And most people f*cking hate poetry.
I agree that pound pairs are risky at the moment. Thought the other 2 pairs would have provided a better hedge but it doesn't seem that way.

I think Ryan mentioned on back test that around 38% DD was the low for his system. We will see how this plays out. Thought that was a rare event but as we are at basically 30% DD, I think this system needs tweaking before going live. Or I guess you could just run it with much lower risk.
  • Post #500
  • Quote
  • Edited at 1:19pm May 17, 2019 12:57pm | Edited at 1:19pm
Quoting mankindeg
{quote} There are ways to have a stoploss here. Either by every trade or some kind of max loss with the close all EA.
I have played aound in my head with a 5 ore 10% cutoff on the whole basket as i have said earlier i like the system very much and the EA is greate,but i have chosen some uncorrealated pairs instead and no GBP for this weeks test"Actually havent traded GBP much at all lately" and i had six closes on demo and closed out with 25 pips today not to have open trades over weekend.Thinking on going live with that setup and pairs next week mayby with a 5-7% cutoff because i havent had DD over 1.5% this week.Will see.


EDIT:I had it at 30/70 on all 7 pairs,but i think i am to use 20/80 on my live setup if it can give enough trades that is.
EDIT:With a cutoff like that mayby you can insrease lotsizes also so you can get 2-3% on one close say with 0.05 lots and 50 pips you get 25 dollars give ore take on a 1000 account that is 2.5% so you need only 2 basketclosings to recover a Equitystop hit of 5%...Just thinking high..Because after what i have seen with 1-4 pairs in trade at the same time most of the time equity have been positive all the time rearly any DD,but a week only can be most luck,hard to say really,but to risk 5% isnt much if to go live Monday.
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