Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The bearish candlestick printed in the EURUSD market in March 2019 failed to have a significant follow-through in April; resulting in the printing of an indecision candlestick around an area that has held as support for quite a long while. But, technically, the market still favours the bears.

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The EURUSD market is still consolidating on the weekly time frame, where price action is still grinding slowly but sideways in a descending channel (blue). Presently market operation is located around a horizontal support around 1.11330, an area that has remained in tact since May 2017. Last week, the market printed a bullish candlestick with an upper shadow, indicating that bears were still influential.

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The daily time frame shows price action consolidating along a descending channel (black). Presently, bulls have taken price action above the channel support trendline. Should they sustain their determination, we may see further northward move in the early part of this week. However, the 1.13080 area is likely to be a barrier to a bullish drive.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

NZDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The NZDUSD bears broke down a horizontal channel (magenta) on the weekly time frame four weeks ago. However, since then, they have found it difficult t gain momentum for a southward drive. The candlesticks printed in the past three weeks have been rather ambivalent, even though bears have a slight edge. A bearish continuation is likely to target the 0.64300 area in the first instance, whereas any bullish pullback, temporary in nature, may be a retest of the broken-down channel around the 0.67070 area.

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Recent price action on the daily time frame favours the bulls and they may effect a northward retracement to an area of value, such as the immediate horizontal resistance around the 0.67070 area,; which is in confluence with the monthly pivot and the base of a broken-down horizontal channel (magenta).

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A descending wedge formation (blue) can be seen on the H4 time frame. Presently, price action is in sideways mode but with bulls favoured to continue taking price action on a retracement to an area of value, perhaps the wedge resistance trendline or the 0.66760 minor horizontal resistance. At any rate, any northward retracement is likely to be temporary and we may see a southward turnaround after in the next few days.

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I am bearish NZDUSD.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

AUDUSD price action on the weekly time frame is operating in a bearish wedge (blue). It is presently located around the wedge support trendline. Last week, the market printed a bullish candlestick which with a longer top wick than the bottom wick. This indicated that bears were restraining bulls from taking price further inside the wedge. But a breakdown of the wedge support trendline is likely to see bears target the 0.68230 horizontal support. Meanwhile, we may see some sideways of price action or a brief northward pullback to an area of value. However, overall, the technicals are in support of bears.

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The daily time frame shows an AUDUSD market operating around the support trendline of the bearish wedge (blue) seen on the weekly time frame. Presently, bulls are attempting to take price action further northwards, but bears are resting the attempt. We may see some sideways of price action in the early part of this week or even a brief northward move. At any rate, we may not see an immediate directional momentum until the wedge is broken down.

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On the H4 time frame, bulls and bears are battling for market control but the technical mood favours bulls, which may see them retest the 0.70190/0.70440 horizontal resistance zone before a possible southward turnaround.

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I am bearish AUDUSD.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

On the weekly time frame, the EURUSD market continues to consolidate within a descending channel (red). Last week, bulls followed up the bullish candlestick printed two weeks ago with a further northward move but with limited momentum. Should they manage to take price action further northwards, they may meet barriers in the channel resistance or the 1.13340 horizontal resistance.

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The technicals on the daily time frame favour bulls to take price action a bit further northward within the descending channel (red). But the 1.13210 area may pose a challenge to any ambitious bullish move and we are likely to see a southward turnaround after a brief northward retracement.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Suscribed!! Nice job, Keenpips. My study is not multi timeframe. I prefer multicurrency from H4 but i read all your posts. Actually i'm long at NZDUSD. Greetings.

Thanks mate for your kind sentiment. I am a swing trader and I see any buy trade on the NZDUSD market at the moment as of very short duration, a retracement trading imho. I prefer a potential for a trade setup that I can keep open for a few days.

I may be wrong. Trade safe, mate.

KP

Quoting jag1969

Disliked

Suscribed!! Nice job, Keenpips. My study is not multi timeframe. I prefer multicurrency from H4 but i read all your posts. Actually i'm long at NZDUSD. Greetings.

Ignored

In fact, my strategy will be to fade any northward rally, provided price action reaches an area of value on the daily time frame.

KP

Quoting KeenPips

Disliked

Thanks mate for your kind sentiment. I am a swing trader and I see any buy trade on the NZDUSD market at the moment as of very short duration, a retracement trading imho. I prefer a potential for a trade setup that I can keep open for a few days. I may be wrong. Trade safe, mate. KP {quote}

Ignored

Have you checked usdcny? I don't trade this pair but good uptrend here with the china usd tradewar.

Like you mate, I don't trade the pair.Trade safe.KP

XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The bearish pinbar printed on the XAUUSD weekly time frame by price action last week can be inviting. However, we may not see much more than a corrective bearish move to the 78.6 Fib retracement zone of the up leg from 1219.90 to 1327.45. The 78.6 Fib zone is around the 1253.90 area, while presently price action is located around the 61.8 Fib zone; which is a tradeable 250-pips southwards. Thus, we may see a bearish mode of price action in the short-term, and a bullish turnaround is much likely thereafter. Nevertheless, should price action breach the 1253.90 area southwards on a daily closing basis, we may see bears drive price southward with increased momentum.

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On the daily time frame, price action is grinding southwards along a descending channel (blue) and the technicals still favour bears. Should bears continue to be influential, they may see the channel support trendline as a target. The area is in confluence with a significant moving average I use as a confluence factor and the 78.6 Fib retracement of the up leg from 1219.90.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURJPY market has been on a negative mode since the last week of April 2019. However, on the weekly time frame, the southward momentum has diminished in the last two weeks with he prinying of two indecision candlesticks. Presently price action is located around the 122.740 support area on the weekly time frame. The lower shadow on the bearish candlesticks printed last week indicates that bulls are still to be reckoned with.



The daily time frame shows price action ranging around the 122.740 support area. This indicates that the area is not yielding to the bearish influence that had happened before the area and we may see a pullback to an area of value, such as the 123.880 area. A descending trendline (blue) is still in play.



The H4 time frame shows bulls making a desperate attempt to take price action northward within a descending channel (blue). The most recent candlesticks have been in favour of bulls, but bears appear to be hindering any bullish momentum. We may see a brief pullback before any southward continuation. The 121.330 support area is likely to be an initial target of any southward move.



I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD market is disposed negatively as price action broke down a horizontal channel (magenta) on the weekly time frame. The 1.28880/1.32220 range has held for several weeks after the 50 Fib retracement of the down leg from 1.43980 in the second week of March 2019. The market printed a solidly bearish candlestick last week to breach the channel southwards. However, price action is presently located at the 1.27200 minor horizontal support and we may expect some sideways or even a brief retracement to an area of value.

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On the daily time frame, price action was parabolic in the last few days and we may expect a corrective northward retracement before any southward continuation.



On the H4 time frame, it is apparent that the parabolic move seen on the daily time frame is too far from the mean and we may see a pullback. A likely target of such a pullback is the 1.27930 minor horizontal resistance or a retest of the descending trendline (red) from the most recent high.



I maintain a bearish bias on GBPUSD.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Hi all,
Seems to be a bit of news due this week that could affect the markets especially AUD and EUR so I'll be cautious. That being said, here is what I will be looking out for this week -



EURUSD - Bearish
Continuation from previous week - Moving averages in down trending order (20 < 50 < 200)
H4: Looking to short at pullback into the downtrend
D: MACD Cross under signal line


USDCHF - Bullish
W: Price above Moving Averages in up trending order (20 > 50 > 200)
W: Price closed with a hammer last week signifying rejection at the 20MA area
D: Price reacted to 50MA, with piercing line pattern, set stop just below
D: Price at bottom Bollinger Band
D: Price is at resistance, so await to see if there is a break above
H4: Price reacting to 20MA to the upside, however 50/200MAs above so as above, await to see if there is a break


EURJPY - Bearish
Moving averages in down trending order (20 < 50 < 200) Looking to short at pullback into the downtrend
W: Price closed below downward gap, as well as last week's doji
W: Price closed below 50% fib level from 2016 pivot low
D: Price undecided for last few days (3xdoji) This could point to relieve of selling pressure before moving further to the downside
D: RSI not signalling oversold conditions
D: No crossover indicated on MACD


CHFJPY - Bearish
Moving averages in down trending order (20 < 50 < 200) Looking to short at pullback into the downtrend
W: Price unable to break above hammer made two weeks ago at strong potential resistance area,
W: Indicators not showing convincing reversal signals
D: Price at 20MA acting as potential resistance
D: Price at gap down acting as resistance
D: Price seems to be weakening as rose to resistance area
H4: Price at top of Bollinger Band and resistance area, previous bar showing long upper shadow

Good contribution, mate. Good analyses and thanks for the heads up on news. Well done.

Trade safe.

KP

AUDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

Six weeks ago, price action on the AUDJPY broke below the 80.380 horizontal resistance area and has since continued a southward move on the weekly time frame. The congestion zone of 79.140/77.580 was breached southwards by sellers three weeks ago. However, the bearish drive has declined in momentum in the last two weeks even though technicals on the weekly time frame still favour sellers. Nevertheless, as price is presently located too far from an area of value and with an ambivalent candlestick printed last week, we may see a northward retracement before a bearish continuation.

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Price action on the daily time frame is sideways around a support zone but a potentially flip zone (76.300/76.830) is just a few pips northward (bound by magenta coloured horizontal lines) and we may see price action retest the area before any bearish momentum sets in.

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Bottoming price action is at play on the H4 time frame and we may see a northward retracement in the early part of this week; this may target the 76.830 resistance area for a role flip.

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I am bearish AUDJPY.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Thanks for sharing; glad to know I'm not the only nutcase who thinks that AUD/JPY will make a run for 76.33 region.

AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

In the last two weeks, price action on the AUDUSD has been operating near the horizontal support zone around the 0.68320 area. On the weekly time frame, the market printed a bullish pinbar-like candlestick around the area last week. Should this have a bullish follow through in the early part of this week, we may see bulls retest the 0.70300 horizontal resistance area.



The daily time frame shows price action operating in a descending channel (red). Many of the recent candlesticks printed lower wicks near the 0.68320 horizontal support, indicating a rejection of the area. We may see bulls take price action on a retracement to the broken-down former support around the 0.70035 area for a possible role flip.

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Recent price action on the H4 time frame has been bullish and we can see some bottoming or rounding pattern on the H4 time fame; this indicates a likely northward retracement. But it is likely to be temporary as price action is presently located at the resistance of a minor descending channel (navy) and a minor horizontal resistance is located around 0.69720, which is the lower part of a likely retracement target or zone, 0.69720/0.70300 (bound by magenta horizontal lines). The area may see a role flip for a southward continuation.

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I am bearish AUDUSD.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Thanks mate. We deal in probabilities and the market can do anything. Really, I don't mind being wrong as I know how to handle it.

Trade safe.

KP

EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURJPY bearish drop from the 126.520 reaction zone on the weekly time frame six weeks ago has not had much follow-through as there has been some hesitation in southward momentum. The last three weeks have seen the EURJPY market operating sideways in the main, although the technicals give sellers a little edge. Presently, price action is around the 122.770 horizontal support and the market is rather ambivalent in the area.

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On the daily time frame, price action is operating in a descending wedge (blue) and presently located around the wedge support trendline. However, the printing of ‘wicky’ candlesticks in the area indicates neither bulls nor bears have control of the order flow. We may have to wait for directional clarity. Should bulls gain control of price action in the early part of this week, they may find the 124.000 problematic as a resistance. But bears are likely to find the present location of price action, the 122.390 handle, which has held since the January 2019 flash crash difficult to break down. I expect a northward retracement of price action before bears can make a determined effort to break down the zone.

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On the H4 time frame, last week Tuesday, price action punched through a descending trendline (magenta) from April 2019 high and role flip the former horizontal support around 123.700 as resistance. We may see such a price action in the early part of this week as the market is presently ambivalent. The 123.000 area may present itself as a target of northward retracement. Thereafter, we may have a southward turnaround.

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I will stay on the sidelines from the EURJPY market for now.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

Since breaking down the horizontal channel 146.680/143.190, two weeks ago, price action on the GBPJPY has been toned negative. A bearish pinbar was printed last week and we may expect it to have a bearish follow-through this week. Technically, we may expect a brief northward retracement to a percentage (about 38.2-50%) of the printed bearish pinbar range before such a southward continuation materializes.



The technicals on the GBPJY daily time frame favour bears. However, as price action is too far from a value area, such as the mean, we may expect a northward retracement in the early part of this week. I will be watching the 140.170/139.470 zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines) as a likely turnaround area of such a northward retracement.



I am bearish GBPJPY.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP