Keep Trying

Had a woeful AUDUSD revenge trade I don't even want to discuss. Finished for the week.

Off to real work today for the next 6 days..

Some thoughts for next week.

Dont commit more than 2 trades until confirmation, then another 2 can pyramid in.
Dont hunt reversals, hunt PA. Be open to both bull and bear
Don't feel bad about TP nor closing trades if PA is telling me the tide is turning, chances are VERY high I will be able to re enter.
Success is going to hinge on achieving trades with bigger pips . This is why good pivot traders do well, much bigger RR, small trades longer. I need some trades to last a couple of days, get 100pips. Just 1 trade like that at .1lot could return 10% for me.

Nothing wrong on entering on PA from 5 min, but FFS refer to HR chart to review odds of trade lasting longer TF when thinking of closing them . The number of times I close trades on 5min TF when most others are getting confirmation to enter on HR TF is beyond embarrassing . Ie I go short and then get scared with a retracement meantime hr has clicked over and fat bear HR candle is sitting there that others are looking at and entering shorts with bigger SL whilst I think I should get out. REVIEW REVIEW REVIEW evolution of PA on multiple TF.

Take the time to recharge the batteries. Drop in and tell us your thoughts re going forward and I look forward to seeing how it goes next week

Yes at the very least I'm providing a community service for trading errors and experiences lol. I think it's good for me, public is very different. Here I am beating myself up for a 5% loss in a week and thinking I need to decrease lot size to .05. It's all very different to the nonsense we can tell ourselves privately.

I'm super tired off nightshift but had what felt like a profound thought so I'll share.

The markets are ultimately unpredictable. Yes you can analyze them for trends and patterns, but who really knows what they'll do.
Traders are ultimately unpredictable. Yes you can analyze them for trends and patterns , but who really knows what they'll do.

This seemed very deep to me in my overtired state and I started visualizing a thread on EA for AI ( artificial intelligence) all about programming traders . Anyway the scenario was far better in my head and I need to sleep .

I do like the thought though. We talk about PA, and we talk about psychology of trading, but it wasnt until today I realised they're as nutty as each other.

Ok so my first trade day in 6 days. I sat down and opened charts, looking at currency matrix namely EU,UJ,EJ, and multiple time frames.

EU had been grinding back up over the last 6hours with a bullish looking H4 reversal, but stuck on H1. In pic 1 the horizontal lines show where Sma50 and SMA100 are on H1 and it was stuck between them .

Anyway mistake no1. 1 of my trade rules is not to enter trades in last 5min or first 5min of hour. In the first pic the blue arrow is beneath the 5min candle of
0950-0955. It's sitting on support. the next candle is indecisive, same level, possible reversal. The hour candle closes on 100SMA (HR) .
I break my rules twice by
a) entering trades on the first 5min of the hour
b) entering 4 trades at once.

I entered the trades with increase in volume ( see green spike at bottom) and as EU(like every other pair i guess) can decide to move with purpose fast I was sucked into the trap and placed my trades thinking it would continue north. But no, I spent the next hour with my trades in the breeze as the pair in all honesty could've gone either way. The 3rd arrow up is the half hour, potential shooting star but I hung in there, I'd made my bed and was sleeping in it better than overtrading. The 4th up arrow is coming up to the hour again. nice bullish hope, then bearish rejection, then full bull candle through 50 sma to finish hour with break up.

I TP 1/4 with the arrow down, after a decent move up I like to see some continuation, not a lower high with doji. I also tightened my remaining 3 trades to BE.
I'm hoping EU will move above pivot, clearly.

I also attached the EJ 5min chart I was looking at when I entered my EU longs. The PA on it was even worse and unpredictable looking than EU, so I went EU. See how the candles can BS around the hour. Difficult to determine direction

At the end of the hour, bull hour candle loitering at pivot wondering what to do next. I have set TP 2/4 based on TL of HR candles

The NZ rate cut seemed to upset the world, but Euro is having one of it's positive episodes ( EU going up, although AUD affected by NZ news too) so I jumped on this, it's moving with purpose. 1 Trade only ,BE. Unsure of TP atm, will probably apply trailing SL

NB. stopped out. Thats ok. wait n watch

NB Tried again with long at 50 SMA support only it broke through. 70 point loss

I also TP 2/4 EU trades a tad early when it found resistance, TP at 1.12024

ok I'm done for the day. Finished in profit which makes every trader happy. Have TP 3/4 EU trades, profits marked by crosses. I was disappointed I'd only made $31 for my efforts today, but I'm looking for consistency and 3% for a day is great. 1 trade still in play, hoping for big pips TP below R38 at 1.12460 else still in play tom am, though I don't like my chance surviving London and NY

Result for my residual EU long from yesterday, stopped out at the "x". This is why I TP3/4 trades during the Asian session, getting a trade to stick through subsequent London and NY is statistically low ( my guess 20%) but definitely a tactic to gain big pips. I had loosened the SL for a $6 hit, still undecided whether BE or small SL is best. Also look at the change in PA from friendly Asian (low activity for EU) to crazy London/NY.
Also note I'm not moving my TL, I may look at Break up through it for trade entry. The yellow line is the level I entered longs yesterday, you can see a little arrow up off to the left

Ok so an embarrassing start. Thought EJ was moving up with purpose but no it was sucking fools in like me. see pics

I had my stop loss lower, in case of failed south move, like with a hammer. Only it wasn't failed ..

Seeing EJ plummet I went to EU to see if I could engage. I did, though ultimately I closed the trades for $10 loss due to lack of direction. Naturally as soon as I closed the shorts it moved south. I re entered. Am hoping to get BE, sitting on 8% approx loss for the morning which is why I'm not succesful, let's be honest

hoping this will snowball a bit. It's moved below 50 plus 100 SMAs on HR. Risking $10

came back from lunch to find my shorts dying, so closed them for small profit. This then left me annoyed , mostly I hate trading EU during Asian as it's just a slog. Anyway looking at PA including possible hour hammer I changed my tune and longed ( way too early, bought at resistance, that's me). Anyway if it won't go south, maybe it will go North. As we all know it will do whatever it wants anyway. With the exception of my EJ debacle this am I have managed to deal with PA ok, would just like some trades to stick

Had the 5pm check in, when life starts to come to the party. TP1/4 just below pivot at 1.11997, TP 2/4 1.1202, moved SL to BE for remaining 2 trades. Made the mistake of reviewing FF views, and people are waiting for EU to crash...

TP 3/4 1.11976 with break of TL

Tough morning for you - bit of a grind, to say the least.

If you don't mind me asking, what are you actually basing your trade decisions on? I know you talk of PA and all well and good but the one constant I notice through your posts is the talk of ''thought it would...'' ''maybe...'' ''took a chance...'' ''changed my tune...'' etc.

Best summed up in this: ''...bought at resistance, that's me. Anyway if it won't go south, maybe it will go North. As we all know it will do whatever it wants anyway.''

If you are using pure PA and you do seem to have an eye for it, I'd suggest getting rid of all the squiggles. Look for something that will give you a directional bias for the day and then add in the absolute bare minimum to the charts to help you achieve that as simply as possible.

At the moment there are far too many, ''ifs-buts-maybes'' in your process. You are trading what you think, instead of trading what you see.

I have a feeling you know all this - you've said as much - however the fact is, you are continuing to repeat old, bad, behaviours.

I hope you don't mind me saying this, I truly don't mean to lecture, I just hate to see you struggling when I feel you are so close to cracking this game, if only you can rewire your mind-set.

Thanks for your response. Yes a bit of a mess. Simply put I do have a habit of trading because I think it will do something more than because it has done something, also committing too much too soon.
Happy for feed back. This is why I am spinning my wheels. Up down Up down
Cheers good luck to you
H

Feeling really angry and frustrated tonight, ridiculous really as I'm only down $20 this week and $80 overall , hardly a disaster.
I'm busy tomorrow so probably no trading til next week. I think next week I will simplify my charts, and forget the squiggly lines. I will keep my TL though. I think I need to stick with 1 TF too (5min), and 1 trade at a time for a bit.

Fascinating.

1 quote at the end.... " A fearful trader is the most consistent trader in the world". Brutal. circa 1995

5 finger fractal= 2 bars lower either side

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yes...... and one worth trying...... 0.01 lots till confidence develops......h