This one’s for JB although more news coming up soon so that might affect things from the spikes {image}
for me, nothing changed ...
I am still a bear -maniac
if there;s anything like that...hope you having a mellow weekend
- Post #6,961
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- May 4, 2019 5:41am May 4, 2019 5:41am
- Joined May 2016 | Status: Clueless | 6,804 Posts
for me, nothing changed ...
I am still a bear -maniac
if there;s anything like that...hope you having a mellow weekend
- Post #6,962
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- May 4, 2019 6:05am May 4, 2019 6:05am
- Joined Aug 2018 | Status: Full-Time Gambler | 2,549 Posts
{quote} the news did flipped shit up like you mentioned on the EU thread.. for me, nothing changed ... I am still a bear -maniac
bless my liver hahah hope all’s well for you too. turns out that projection didn’t go to plan, maybe because of the news, but well wrong is wrong.
on a separate note, here’s an update on the average weekly range thing:
so far I’ve been integrating this in my trades by doing the following:
1) I start the week/day off by calculating the ‘mileage’ clocked thus far for the week (of course Monday open is 0 pips, and so on) then as mentioned before I add the remaining (take the 138 average and minus the current weekly mileage clocked) on either sides of the current week’s high and low
2) anything in the lower half, I’d buy every support, anything in the upper half, I’d sell every resistance.
Here’s a TE of my ENTRIES (disregard the exits, I just close every trade in profit regardless of how much as and when I check my phone throughout the day, and likewise I just load more entries when price is at those support/resistances): https://www.forexfactory.com/engweijie#acct.91
now the gist of it is that as long as price is contained within the calculations in point 1), the trade is safe with a max drawdown of 138 pips give or take. of course, the RISK to REWARD ratio is a little f*** up at this point, for one I haven’t been working on exits (I close trades regardless of 2 pips in profit or 60 pips, because I wanna focus on one thing at a time for now), so it’s a little unorthodox but basically the idea is that you can pretty much always get out with a small profit within the week or the following week.
You will notice that I have 2 stuck longs from 1.126x area - that’s human error. I could have (and should have) closed them during the FOMC minutes on Wednesday at break even but I didn’t, but I’m just gonna hold them (given monday’s opening price will be 1.120x if no gap, so 138 pips on either side should allow me an exit, if not a closure in small loss which the gains per day would override).
I imagine, JB, for your case focusing ONLY ON THE SHORT SIDE, this could prove useful for loading extra shorts. Looking at your box, if I were combine this, I’d say 1.1225, 1.1250, 1.1265, 1.1290, 1.1320 and 1.1333 are areas you could look at to build micro positions. You could have a hard stop maybe 30 pips above the highest short (?), where this number comes from 1.1204 + 138 pips then giving maybe 30 pips or so as a buffer.
Please ignore the USDSGD trades on the TE (the majority of the drawdown comes from those trades so for purely EURUSD the risk to reward although unorthodox still kinda makes the entry methods worth it).
of course, this is very crude and preliminary and I am experimenting on ways to make this more precise. Right now it’s pretty much just trading both directions (or in your case, potentially identifying additional short entries on the upper half of the range).
Let me know if you have any ideas on how we can further refine this.
Enjoy your weekend!
You hesitate, you masturbate.
- Post #6,963
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- May 4, 2019 6:50am May 4, 2019 6:50am
- Joined May 2016 | Status: Clueless | 6,804 Posts
{quote} I’m hungover af and I’ve another party at a new mega club tonight
Oh snap.. some store had a special yesterday. I took advantage now I look like an alcohol dealer..
So your liver will stay alive all through
Nice TE growth and that's not easy to come by..
For now I will observe the box and should the upper side fail, definitely the likes of 1.130
You will notice the entire idea/setup was based on the PA of this week...
Now, let's see if the setup they created will take infectt come next week..
ok.. now that you mentioned beer, let me see what's cold
- Post #6,964
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- May 4, 2019 9:30am May 4, 2019 9:30am
{quote} I’m hungover af and I’ve another party at a new mega club tonight
Us old dudes.. well these days if I wake up feeling like that then it's time to start drinking again, a little hair of the dog that bit me... otherwise I'm down for a couple days feeling like complete dog shit
- Post #6,965
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- May 4, 2019 9:33am May 4, 2019 9:33am
- Joined Aug 2018 | Status: Full-Time Gambler | 2,549 Posts
{quote} LOL it's a good thing you guys are young... you still recover fast
You hesitate, you masturbate.
- Post #6,966
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- May 4, 2019 10:31am May 4, 2019 10:31am
- Joined May 2016 | Status: Clueless | 6,804 Posts
- Post #6,968
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- May 4, 2019 11:17pm May 4, 2019 11:17pm
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: The Voodoo Boodoo Club | 39,712 Posts
Some thoughts on the GBP. HTF is trending slowly down. We've been ranging on higher medium timeframes; currently trading above this quarter's open and monthly/weekly average price. That said, it's looking like we have a potential H&S pattern setting up; there's now a neckline and we have a couple projections to the area of a second shoulder, where there are lots of interesting...
- Post #6,969
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- May 5, 2019 4:15am May 5, 2019 4:15am
- Joined May 2016 | Status: Clueless | 6,804 Posts
- Post #6,970
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- Edited 2:45pm May 5, 2019 2:25pm | Edited 2:45pm
{quote} Uhhh eeeer ,,ya sure about tht ,, looks like it worked above some shit and wants a good crack at tht weekly one above ,, ,,just saying lol,, hope all goes well bud its been a while but the mkt dont forget what happens to the left {image}
Always appreciate your perspective my man, helps me stay unbiased.That's one big H&S on your chart... bigger than the one I was looking at LOL... my daily stochs are set to 24-2-14 and have already flipped (yes I noticed lol) Still working on trusting them.
Nice to see you chime in man, I know I've been busy, you're probably doubly so.
- Post #6,971
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- May 5, 2019 6:19pm May 5, 2019 6:19pm
- Joined May 2016 | Status: Clueless | 6,804 Posts
{quote} the news did flipped shit up like you mentioned on the EU thread.. for me, nothing changed ... I am still a bear -maniac
first hit created a fat ass gap down..
- Post #6,972
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- May 5, 2019 7:04pm May 5, 2019 7:04pm
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: The Voodoo Boodoo Club | 39,712 Posts
{quote} LOL well I did say I would be watching it closely
- Post #6,973
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- May 8, 2019 11:22pm May 8, 2019 11:22pm
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: The Voodoo Boodoo Club | 39,712 Posts
Bit of an update ,,okay so it is late into wednesday lol,, weekly pivot holding er down ,, could be in for a couple big days ,, things teetering on the brink ,, bit slow ,, yen pairs making up for it but things quietly sliding into place here ,,, next decent support if one goes left far enough is the 1,10 ish area on daily chart ,, 1st time in a while the ole 8 hour stochs didnt go to top ,, could be quick and vicious ,, usd pairs kinda idling near their tops ,, ,,gold has got worked below a quarterly average firmly now ,,business may be about to pick up ,, just need one fat little finger and it will be off and running ,,the pieces are all there ,,,dont get caught with your pants down traders ,, cheers all 
- Post #6,974
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- May 8, 2019 11:35pm May 8, 2019 11:35pm
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: The Voodoo Boodoo Club | 39,712 Posts
Rrrrcer ,, if things do start developing as such ,, wouldnt count on the last support area in the gbp ,, could be down to QL3 quicker than an indy car can get around tht track ,,cheers bud 
- Post #6,975
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- May 9, 2019 12:09pm May 9, 2019 12:09pm
Rrrrcer ,, if things do start developing as such ,, wouldnt count on the last support area in the gbp ,, could be down to QL3 quicker than an indy car can get around tht track ,,cheers bud
- Post #6,976
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- May 9, 2019 6:18pm May 9, 2019 6:18pm
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: The Voodoo Boodoo Club | 39,712 Posts
Well tht sucked lol,, whole bunch of plus 1 stp outs ,, bit of a bitch when the stochs get hung up around the 50 line ,, price action ,, some buying transpired ,, may want to give the ole WR1 and lastweeks high a go now ,, see if it holds days open ,, cheers all 
- Post #6,977
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- May 10, 2019 11:33am May 10, 2019 11:33am
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: The Voodoo Boodoo Club | 39,712 Posts
Bit of solace for all the failed shts taken out at plus one for the week lol,,, as alluded to earlier ,, ,,hasent hit W R1 as of yet but since Friday good enough for me ,, ,,same set up in the gbp ,, few more pips gained there ,, the grand daddy was the usd cad as tht had the fuel drop today odd how tht works ,, an 8 hour stoch pattern finished yesterday ,, what happens on the news release today ,,and it drops to where ,, may be a little more next week as the bounce capped by this weeks pivot but a nice news trade ,,usd chf had the drop yesterday ,,bit added to it today ,,decent way to finish a week out ,,, bit of a break today so got to scalp a few ,, great week end to all 
- Post #6,978
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- May 10, 2019 11:50am May 10, 2019 11:50am
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: The Voodoo Boodoo Club | 39,712 Posts
big movers of the week ,, yen pairs ,, well at least the usd and gbpjpy dont watch any others ,, ,, similar on these too ,, course blamed on so called trade war,,possible I reckon ,, but if so some big boys were priviy to what was going on,,tht popped up at the double circle ,, they were already well on their way ,, almost 2 weeks of selling before the trade negotiations tweet or news ,, a news story sure sounds good to blame it on tho ,, any rate ,, couple extra charts ,,, cheers all 
- Post #6,980
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- May 12, 2019 6:42pm May 12, 2019 6:42pm
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: The Voodoo Boodoo Club | 39,712 Posts