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  • #30,001
  • May 3, 2019 2:58pm May 3, 2019 2:58pm
Quoting bubincka
{quote} I think there must be something else behind this huge move out of nothing. I should say USD last fundamental data was mixed while GBP was flat to bad. Let's see on Monday if pound will be able to sustain such a shift against all other currencies.
Well there is this: https://humanevents.com/2019/05/03/t...cal-elections/
Many pro Brexit members lost their seats. So the chances of it ever happening is slimmer, removing some uncertainty.
Trade with confidence, trade without fear.
  • #30,002
  • May 3, 2019 3:01pm May 3, 2019 3:01pm
Quoting bubincka
{quote} I think there must be something else behind this huge move out of nothing. I should say USD last fundamental data was mixed while GBP was flat to bad. Let's see on Monday if pound will be able to sustain such a shift against all other currencies.
It may not because in the midst of confusion of BREXIT it makes a rocket moves against all currencies, I am guessing there is a bad period coming for GBP but to cover its nakedness, it has to move up first and if the fall now occur it will be to its balance feet. this is a manipulation from a highest order. It only JPY that is able to hold GBP in the R100 Zone but others it broke out.
  • #30,003
  • May 3, 2019 3:24pm May 3, 2019 3:24pm
Quoting Cryptosurf
{quote} Well there is this: https://humanevents.com/2019/05/03/t...cal-elections/ Many pro Brexit members lost their seats. So the chances of it ever happening is slimmer, removing some uncertainty.
This was only local council elections and they are notorious for being used as "protests", notably, the small turn out and both the Labour party and Conservatives losing seats. The Brexit Party wasn't formed in time for those, but if as we expect, they win most of the seats in the European elections (which we have to take part in as we still haven't left yet) then there will be a completely different complexion.
Success means going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm
  • #30,004
  • May 3, 2019 3:35pm May 3, 2019 3:35pm
Unusual day to say the least.Amazing part GBP across all currencies has not badged not even a bit which is unusual in forex.Straight up and stayed up for 4hrs.
MY DD is obviously increased.Was waiting to break 75 and could of taken TP (20/20 should of) and got bulldozed by this massive move.
I dont know why ,could be just MM doing what they do occasionally run all stops.

Maybe next week some correction. Not happy with the outcome.That's trading shit happens!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #30,005
  • May 3, 2019 3:38pm May 3, 2019 3:38pm
Quoting Wiiikkks
Thanks davit for all the guidence and information provided through pivot trading. My first week results by following pivot trading. Got confidence to be green. All credit goes to you. Davit please let me know how to get out of a losing trade because i have one. Im holding it since the start of April. {image}
Would of helped if you went straight to the point
"I am long /Short XXX at XXX and what's you think about it.I can give my opinion but in the end its your trade you must learn to manage it yourself.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #30,006
  • May 3, 2019 4:02pm May 3, 2019 4:02pm
[quote=Cryptosurf; So the chances of it ever happening is slimmer, removing some uncertainty.
Brextention to Brextinction
  • #30,007
  • May 3, 2019 5:36pm May 3, 2019 5:36pm
Hello guys,
Our success is proportional to our effort;
Let's all study this weekend, some important points, that will help us a lot to be confident in our trades, and certainly the result will be green pips.
Here, below in this sketch, are some important points to be explored:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 4.point.Screenshot_1.jpg Size: 65 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 5.point.Screenshot_1.jpg Size: 80 KB
  • #30,008
  • May 3, 2019 5:48pm May 3, 2019 5:48pm
Attached the file to be edited and re-post


Points that I am studying for Next Week. ( EDT TIME ) : US inflation, UK GDP, and rate decisions for AUD and NZD


Sun May 5

Sun May 5 21:45 CNY Caixin Services PMI ??.? 54.3 54.4


Mon May 6
Mon May 6 21:30 AUD Retail Sales m/m ??.? 0.2% 0.8%

23:00 NZD Inflation Expectations q/q ?.? % 2.0%



Tue May 7
Tue May 7 0:30 AUD Cash Rate 1.25% 1.50%
AUD RBA Rate Statement

Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 0:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia has not changed its interest rates since August 2016. a cut from 1.50% to 1.25% after Q1 inflation came out flat. In addition, the global economy is slowing down and the housing sector is somewhat struggling in the land down under. On the other hand, the labor market is doing well and so is the economy. Not all analysts see a rate cut coming now. Watching for Short AU. The uncertainty implies a substantial AUD/USD reaction to the news

22:00 NZD Official Cash Rate 1.75% 1.75%
NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
NZD RBNZ Rate Statement

New Zealand rate decision: Wednesday, 22:00. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand last changed the interest rate in November 2016, similar to its neighbor. And also here, disappointing data on several fronts may trigger a rate cut this time. The RBNZ may cut interest rates as well, not only low inflation but also on issues in the labor market. Governor Adrain Orr will hold a press conference at 3:00 GMT.



Wed May 8
8:30 USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks

ECB Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 08:30. The European Central Banks left its policy unchanged in April as expected. President Mario Draghi repeated the stance that “risks are moving to the downside” but tried to balance things out by mentioning the upbeat points alongside the concerns. Four weeks have passed since that decision and now we will get to learn about the internal deliberations within the Frankfurt-based institution. The document usually reiterates the same points made in the statement, but this time the tone may be redacted to be more positive after the euro-zone GDP growth rose to 0.4% QoQ. Markets would like to assess when the next rate change is coming.



Thu May 9

8:30 CAD Trade Balance ??.? -2.9B
USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
USD PPI m/m ??.?% 0.2% 0.6%
21:30 AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement

Fri May 10
4:30 GBP GDP m/m ??% 0.0% 0.2%

GBP Manufacturing Production m/m ??.?% 0.1% 0.9%
GBP Prelim GDP q/q ??.?% 0.5% 0.2%
GBP Prelim Business Investment q/q ?.? %-0.9% -0.9%

UK GDP: Friday, 4:30. Britain releases GDP data on a frequent, monthly basis. However, this time it releases the data for March, thus the full data for the past quarter. The economy grew at a meager pace of 0.2% in Q4 and signs of a slowdown have been seen in Q1. Despite signs of recovery in other places, the ongoing Brexit uncertainty probably left the British economy behind. A better figure is likely now.

8:30 CAD Employment Change ?? -7.2K
CAD Unemployment Rate ??% 5.8%

Canadian jobs data: Friday, 8:30. Canada’s winning streak of jobs reports came to a halt in March with a loss of 7.2K positions. The unemployment rate stood at 5.8%. A rise is likely now. The Canadian dollar is very sensitive to the data and past experience shows that the moves are slow, allowing retail traders to jump in.


USD CPI m/m ?.?% 0.4% 0.4%
USD Core CPI m/m ?.?% 0.2% 0.1%

US inflation: Friday, 8:30. US inflation is slowing down, as seen in both the Core CPI that dropped to 2% y/y and in the Fed’s preferred gauge, the Core PCE, which slipped to 1.6%. The focus in April’s report remains on the yearly core number. A drop below 1.9% will further limit any chances for a rate hike this year.
Attached File(s)
File Type: docx clean.updated.Points that I am Considering Next Week.docx   14 KB | 420 downloads
  • #30,009
  • May 3, 2019 8:44pm May 3, 2019 8:44pm
Happy Weekend to everyone!

My calendar analysis for the coming week. Will take a closer look on AUD, NZD, and USD.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Forex Calendar Events May 6 - 10, 2019.pdf   73 KB | 362 downloads
Fortune favors the brave.
  • #30,010
  • May 3, 2019 10:53pm May 3, 2019 10:53pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Would of helped if you went straight to the point "I am long /Short XXX at XXX and what's you think about it.I can give my opinion but in the end its your trade you must learn to manage it yourself.
I went short EC at 1.4926. From that point market is ranging and i cant decide should hold the position or close it at dip with minimum loss. How to predict that where market will go after breaking range.
  • #30,011
  • May 3, 2019 11:58pm May 3, 2019 11:58pm
Quoting Pent56
{quote} Yes but GBP has been manipulated across all pairs.
The attached shows the movement of the eight major currencies on Friday, based on the movement of all 28 individual pairs.

You can see that all other seven currencies dropped against GBP, although USD dropped the most.

Also interesting is the initial dip in the GBP and the extended move in the last hour.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP move.PNG Size: 12 KB
  • #30,012
  • May 4, 2019 2:47am May 4, 2019 2:47am
Quoting Davit
For Time being GBP seems like the risk off "safe heaven" In forex like NE weather changes in 5min Just want to say it makes me very happy to see you guys pile the pips.It validates not only the system but shows you executing and improving and becoming consistent. Does not matter what trolls losers think.Does not matter 1 tiny ounce! what matters your account your money growing!Its the work you put into it! Its you should...
No GBP hasnt become a safe haven. The large pensions funds are not allowed to carry FX exposures on their cross currency investments. Due to the change in the FX value versus their foreign investments at month end they are forced to balance their books to correct this exposure. This is why GBP has been bought.
This is what book balancing is all about.
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #30,013
  • May 4, 2019 4:25am May 4, 2019 4:25am
Quoting ikdenk
{quote} The attached shows the movement of the eight major currencies on Friday, based on the movement of all 28 individual pairs. You can see that all other seven currencies dropped against GBP, although USD dropped the most. Also interesting is the initial dip in the GBP and the extended move in the last hour. {image}
Re the shown chart, where do I go to read this during trading hours ??
  • #30,014
  • May 4, 2019 4:40am May 4, 2019 4:40am
Quoting copi88
{quote} No GBP hasnt become a safe haven. The large pensions funds are not allowed to carry FX exposures on their cross currency investments. Due to the change in the FX value versus their foreign investments at month end they are forced to balance their books to correct this exposure. This is why GBP has been bought. This is what book balancing is all about.
@copi88: does this mean this will happen at the end/beginning of each month?
  • #30,015
  • May 4, 2019 4:44am May 4, 2019 4:44am
Quoting Coffeebuff
{quote} Re the shown chart, where do I go to read this during trading hours ??
It is based on an indicator I had specifically coded to trace the movements of the eight main currencies from the 28 pairs.

I have it set at 200 hours which of course coincides with the 200 ma (heaven forbid).

It is similar to the strong/weak analysis that Dennis does on BP if you are familiar with that.
  • #30,016
  • May 4, 2019 5:08am May 4, 2019 5:08am
Quoting renkotop
{quote} @copi88: does this mean this will happen at the end/beginning of each month?
Yes it will happen throughout the month but at the end of the month is when the major re balancing happens.You will often see articles mentioning this at the end of the calendar month where they one or another currency needs rebalancing.

They can either do the adjustment in the stock or the FX markets. It is usually done through FX as their is more liquidity and therefore easier to do.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mboExLG.png Size: 167 KB
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #30,017
  • May 4, 2019 7:19am May 4, 2019 7:19am
Quoting Cryptosurf
{quote} Well there is this: https://humanevents.com/2019/05/03/t...cal-elections/ Many pro Brexit members lost their seats. So the chances of it ever happening is slimmer, removing some uncertainty.
Hi Cryptosurf,

personally I don't believe this was the major driver of the GBP rocket move, it played a role for sure, but it isn't the fundamental reason.

As said I believe more in a EOM rebalancing as copi88 wrote plus some SL hunting.

Since all GBP pairs ended last week at outer levels, all but GJ beyond 138, it will be decisive to see if they will be able to break S/R38 in current week, otherwise we'll be in a strong trend for the pound supported by some fundamental still to be revealed.

Best regards,
Bubincka
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #30,018
  • May 4, 2019 7:31am May 4, 2019 7:31am
Quoting bubincka
{quote} Hi Cryptosurf, personally I don't believe this was the major driver of the GBP rocket move, it played a role for sure, but it isn't the fundamental reason. As said I believe more in a EOM rebalancing as copi88 wrote plus some SL hunting. Since all GBP pairs ended last week at outer levels, all but GJ beyond 138, it will be decisive to see if they will be able to break S/R38 in current week, otherwise we'll be in a strong trend for the pound supported by some fundamental still to be revealed. Best regards, Bubincka...
It was also very cheap. The blue line is the main value line the institutions will use to value GBP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: IseIfhl.png Size: 378 KB
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #30,019
  • May 4, 2019 7:37am May 4, 2019 7:37am
Quoting copi88
{quote} It was also very cheap. The blue line is the main value line the institutions will use to value GBP {image}
what is the blue and orange for?
  • #30,020
  • May 4, 2019 7:48am May 4, 2019 7:48am
I feel you guys talk like 100-150 pips H4 candle is something unusual in cable with or without a known reason/info for little retailers. if we look back we have plenty of such candles bigger and even double,up and down as well.
Take what you can, give nothing back
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