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  • #1,801
  • May 2, 2019 9:56am May 2, 2019 9:56am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} although a fan of UTC, I am not sure I like UTC for NQ when it comes to stat analysis. you can change global timezone settings in Sierra if you are not aware. I think default is utc
with UTC, i get the proper summary since it begins right around when the daily opens again.

if i set my time to central time, the pnl study resets at midnight. Is there a way to make it read pnl between certain hours?
  • #1,802
  • May 2, 2019 10:29am May 2, 2019 10:29am
Quoting hilmy83
So the structure of reporting for this month in sierra will be daily chart with pnl/ticks weekly stats monthly stats (more detailed) all reports are in UTC time 1st day +$895 {image}
-$6565

I got rocked today booy. I'm continuing to study the pattern behind legitimate trend vs a fakeout. Trading both fade and trend/breakout requires a bit of a sweet spot. Once i get there, it'll be a smoother ride.

oh well, it's a bit of a pain in the ass, but it's the beginning of the month.

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  • #1,803
  • May 2, 2019 11:42am May 2, 2019 11:42am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} -$6565 I got rocked today booy. I'm continuing to study the pattern behind legitimate trend vs a fakeout. Trading both fade and trend/breakout requires a bit of a sweet spot. Once i get there, it'll be a smoother ride. oh well, it's a bit of a pain in the ass, but it's the beginning of the month. {image}
Ouch man.... Respect being so honest....
Sorry if I offend you but your losing days are quite big compared to your average winning day.... Today I opened a amp tradingview sim account to play around with futures butt damn its totally different than cfd’s... In the way my balance increases....
  • #1,804
  • May 2, 2019 12:01pm May 2, 2019 12:01pm
Quoting Patje
{quote} Ouch man.... Respect being so honest.... Sorry if I offend you but your losing days are quite big compared to your average winning day.... Today I opened a amp tradingview sim account to play around with futures butt damn its totally different than cfd’s... In the way my balance increases....
I'm used to the ups/downs of trading. In fact, it's almost expected now where i'll have 2-3 bad days. Just look at my stats last couple of months. My stats say that i'll get $1.10 return for every $1 i risk (net .10 cents profit AFTER fees).

Can i get better, of course. When you have the stats to back you up, it helps put these days in perspective. You just take the loss like a man, and continue on.

That's trading to me. Just a long grind to play out your edge.
  • #1,805
  • May 2, 2019 12:24pm May 2, 2019 12:24pm
Quoting Patje
{quote} Ouch man.... Respect being so honest.... Sorry if I offend you but your losing days are quite big compared to your average winning day.... Today I opened a amp tradingview sim account to play around with futures butt damn its totally different than cfd’s... In the way my balance increases....
you going to try the micros on Monday? if you're not ready for the BEAST..then you should play with the kittens first
  • #1,806
  • May 2, 2019 12:33pm May 2, 2019 12:33pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} you going to try the micros on Monday? if you're not ready for the BEAST..then you should play with the kittens first
Hahaha.... Yes..... I am going to try it for the next 2 weeks.... Also get a bit fromiliar with the platform and all the other stuff..... When I can achieve similar results as with cfds I am planning to go live..... I think tradingview is the only web-based solution for now to use....... BTW I like to play with pussy's , so it isn't so bad to start with that.....
  • #1,807
  • May 3, 2019 10:18am May 3, 2019 10:18am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} -$6565 I got rocked today booy. I'm continuing to study the pattern behind legitimate trend vs a fakeout. Trading both fade and trend/breakout requires a bit of a sweet spot. Once i get there, it'll be a smoother ride. oh well, it's a bit of a pain in the ass, but it's the beginning of the month. {image}
+$2725

beautiful trend today. Altough i have a tendency to fade the move instead of just going along with the trend. So i need to review the fade setups and see if i can somehow revise so i don't always give back on the initial loss

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for the weekly/monthly summary i htink i'm going to report it in TICKS IGNORE QTY. i think its more relevant to how the setups are performing since each setup can have multiple positions; i should be looking at the avg position in ticks win/loss.

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  • #1,808
  • May 3, 2019 10:22am May 3, 2019 10:22am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} -$6565 I got rocked today booy. I'm continuing to study the pattern behind legitimate trend vs a fakeout. Trading both fade and trend/breakout requires a bit of a sweet spot. Once i get there, it'll be a smoother ride. oh well, it's a bit of a pain in the ass, but it's the beginning of the month. {image}
I hate to say this.... I am experiencing the grinding pain of up and down. One has to become immune when playing with the Gods of Probability Theory. There is just no other way out but to grind it every day... easier said than done (for me atleast)
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,809
  • May 3, 2019 10:32am May 3, 2019 10:32am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} +$2725 beautiful trend today. Altough i have a tendency to fade the move instead of just going along with the trend. So i need to review the fade setups and see if i can somehow revise so i don't always give back on the initial loss {image} for the weekly/monthly summary i htink i'm going to report it in TICKS IGNORE QTY. i think its more relevant to how the setups are performing since each setup can have multiple positions; i should be looking at the avg position in ticks win/loss. {image}
hey man, any idea how Sierra is calculating total % efficiency? I think it is different than how myFXBook measures. Put your nerd hat on for me bro :-
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Staying in my lane...
  • #1,810
  • Edited 1:28pm May 3, 2019 1:16pm | Edited 1:28pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} hey man, any idea how Sierra is calculating total % efficiency? I think it is different than how myFXBook measures. Put your nerd hat on for me bro :- {image}
don't rely on sierra's calculation. i think it's rounded up

Take the 56 tick long trade i had on 4 contracts on 5/2

The trade went against the avg position 7761.25 by one tick (7761). And the range is max low-max high from entry in range 57 ticks. so entry efficieny should be how far the market goes against you from entry price. and same goes for exit.


so really the entry efficiency should be 55/56= 98% or 56/57 (another interpretation of it is how much up range is compared to down range)
and exit efficieny is 100%

but it shows 100% on entry..

i got to look more into it over the weekend...

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  • #1,811
  • May 3, 2019 2:23pm May 3, 2019 2:23pm
Poor man's first class; the exit row haha

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  • #1,812
  • May 4, 2019 7:43am May 4, 2019 7:43am
Quoting hilmy83
beautiful trend today. Altough i have a tendency to fade the move instead of just going along with the trend. So i need to review the fade setups
//------

hey hilmy..... wonder why that is.....

it has always amazed, or disappointed, me that my initial tendency is to want to do the same..... no one would believe the number of hours i have spent wondering why..... that wondering only led to other wonderings...

wonderings like is that tendency good...... bad...... result of ego.... just a hunch.... backed by reason.... result of doubt...... profitable....... non profitable...... a death wish..... controllable..... and many more.....

it was the reason i wrote the history indicator to plot every trade and countless more indicators/experts like it...... it is the reason the desktop background on every computer reminds me the pros and cons of that tendency.....

the background on this computer shows me selling the gap up..... for we all know gaps close right..... i ignore that beautiful uptrend...... and i keep selling..... and selling..... and just to prove the market is wrong, i have many more sell limits above just to teach it a lesson.....

it should be no surprise who learned what lesson..... yet still today i find myself fading the market...... wonder why that is......h
//-----
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #1,813
  • Edited 12:58pm May 4, 2019 9:00am | Edited 12:58pm
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //------ hey hilmy..... wonder why that is..... it has always amazed, or disappointed, me that my initial tendency is to want to do the same..... no one would believe the number of hours i have spent wondering why..... that wondering only led to other wonderings... wonderings like is that tendency good...... bad...... result of ego.... just a hunch.... backed by reason.... result of doubt...... profitable....... non profitable...... a death wish..... controllable..... and many more..... it was the reason i wrote the history indicator to...
damn lol, if i did something similar to what you showed there on NQ, even with adding 1 contract at a time, i'd be gone in few days. NQ is very unforgiving when you're caught holding on the wrong side

But fading definitely has merit, but i believe there is a 'tipping point'. I'm basically trying to find that "sweet spot" when all fade should cease and only trending/breakout setups should be taken. At the same time, I also think that pure trend trading is the wrong way to go because markets just do not trend ALL the time. So i'm trying to reconcile the two styles in my own strategy.

To get to that 'sweet spot', i'm focusing on the price to vwap interaction (how far, how long, pattens etc.). Every week i run any observations i have and see if its legit. Usually just going back 1-2 months and see how it reacts. Then if it's legit, i add that to my filters. I make sure that filters do not contradict each other as i have done before. As time goes on, and the filter list evolve, I'm starting to notice how the filters start to be 'similar' so i '5S' my filters to make it easy to follow. 5S'ing is a method of standardazing your process in the engineering world.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5S_(methodology)

This is why you must keep previous versions of your strategy, so that you can go back and understand how the rules/filters develop and get an idea of bigger concepts taking place. Right now i'm on V17 (since end of last year).

I also think that varying your size based on probability success of setups contribute to the positive edge. This is not the same as playing around the size within a setup. It's about classifying the setup into buckets of target/stop potential and probability of success.

So i'm using a journal with in depth stats and tagging setups for this strategy development stage. This is how i know for a fact (based on DATA) that all my inputs (size, stop, target, filters) makes sense.
  • #1,814
  • May 4, 2019 9:35am May 4, 2019 9:35am
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //------ hey hilmy..... wonder why that is..... it has always amazed, or disappointed, me that my initial tendency is to want to do the same..... no one would believe the number of hours i have spent wondering why..... that wondering only led to other wonderings... wonderings like is that tendency good...... bad...... result of ego.... just a hunch.... backed by reason.... result of doubt...... profitable....... non profitable...... a death wish..... controllable..... and many more..... it was the reason i wrote the history indicator to...
Yet there are gap trades that are being taken every week and are being filled.
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R:R "Percentage Focus"
  • #1,815
  • May 4, 2019 9:42am May 4, 2019 9:42am
Quoting PrinceJ58
{quote} Yet there are gap trades that are being taken every week and are being filled. {image}
nobody's saying gap fade doesn't work, but at what cost. Do you always trade gaps? that's what hayseed is alluding. Every setup needs to be within context.
  • #1,816
  • May 4, 2019 10:00am May 4, 2019 10:00am
Quoting hilmy83
fading definitely has merit, but i believe there is a 'tipping point'.
//-----

hey hilmy...... your trading standard man sizes..... just like forex, in futures and options my preference is the baby size...... i stand a better chance trading against them......

it was that tipping point that i tried to calculate....... when trading forex mini futures, i still seemed to scale in...... always seem to fade the short term counter trend...... liquidity is terrible because the money is small.....

forex futures options ....... now that is gambling to the third power...... no one in their right mind would trade them...... liquidity there is almost non existent..... check the volume.......

on currencys such as the aud or nzd , it's usually just me and the market makers..... like the thunder dome.......

two man enter...... one man leave.......h
//------
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #1,817
  • May 4, 2019 11:36am May 4, 2019 11:36am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} nobody's saying gap fade doesn't work, but at what cost. Do you always trade gaps? that's what hayseed is alluding. Every setup needs to be within context.
I understood...
R:R "Percentage Focus"
  • #1,818
  • May 4, 2019 12:36pm May 4, 2019 12:36pm
Remember to exercise

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  • #1,819
  • May 5, 2019 2:11am May 5, 2019 2:11am
Minions will get you if the market doesn’t.
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  • #1,820
  • May 5, 2019 4:58am May 5, 2019 4:58am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} +$2725 beautiful trend today. Altough i have a tendency to fade the move instead of just going along with the trend. So i need to review the fade setups and see if i can somehow revise so i don't always give back on the initial loss {image} for the weekly/monthly summary i htink i'm going to report it in TICKS IGNORE QTY. i think its more relevant to how the setups are performing since each setup can have multiple positions; i should be looking at the avg position in ticks win/loss. {image}
mate, this is how NQ chart will look like with historical market depth, cumm volume, and volume.

if you ever want to add these things and need help setting it up, just let me know.

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