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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #45,481
  • Apr 29, 2019 10:34am Apr 29, 2019 10:34am
No trades today. Felt like summer time market.
  • #45,482
  • Apr 29, 2019 1:04pm Apr 29, 2019 1:04pm
Quoting bmdenton23
No trades today. Felt like summer time market.
Same here..
  • #45,483
  • Apr 29, 2019 1:31pm Apr 29, 2019 1:31pm
Quoting RussellShaw
Hello everyone. I see that this thread has not been very active lately, but I hope that I will get some answers to my question. I'm wondering, did anyone try to improve Mr. Pip's system? I mean, does anyone use other tools to determine strength and weakness of the market? Maybe someone is using footprint or other methods of order flow analysis, and how did that change your trading? Does someone know how to better understand market conditions in real time? It will be great if someone share their experiences. P.S. All full time DEMO traders, who trades...

In your post the most beautiful quote , I like is "P.S. All full time DEMO traders, who trades 150 contracts, please do not comment this post, I'm interested in traders with a serious approach. Thank you"
Neither a Bro Nor a Pro I am I
  • #45,484
  • Apr 29, 2019 4:14pm Apr 29, 2019 4:14pm
How I made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market by Nicolas Darvas.

There are a few books which I've been pointed towards over the last 12 months or so. This was one of them. I got it as an audio book, which meant I could run as well as listen.

The most interesting part is when he's failing, about the first 4-5 years. There are plenty of good reminders about what not to do. Probably the most poignant was how his success was tested when he returned to NYC and started trading in a broker's office. He failed miserably. Surrounded by other traders, news, tips and rumours, he soon started to lose money. After a couple of months, he reverted back to his tried and tested method.

Being a professional dancer, he toured the world. For stock information he largely relied on his broker sending a telegram to wherever he was staying with the prices he was interested in at the close of the market. Typically, the information was three days old.
  • #45,485
  • Apr 30, 2019 12:26pm Apr 30, 2019 12:26pm
My trading day..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #45,486
  • Apr 30, 2019 12:41pm Apr 30, 2019 12:41pm
Attached two screenshots: one to provide the bigger picture and one for the smaller.

Sat on my hands today because I didn't see any setups that interested me much. Took this one because there was long term structure, it was between the 50 and 61.8 of the larger swing and most importantly because the IOF expectation was for a NSL (depending how you identify swings). Nothing to beat myself up over on this one as I feel I did a good analysis and followed my rules.

Today concludes my first full month of trading live.
Here are my month of April stats:

41% win rate (Worse than a coin flip!)
53% loss rate
6% BE rate
Avg win/Avg loss: 1.05
Total # of trades: 34
Ending total -1.5R

Definitely had a tough period this month. Learned many valuable lessons and definitely feel capable of beating these stats in May!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #45,487
  • Apr 30, 2019 2:13pm Apr 30, 2019 2:13pm
Rolling Quarter Stats for Swing strategy on YM
187 trades
97 wins, 30 BE, 90 Losses (43%)
1.29 to 1 ratio
Total -77 points

HR strategy on YM
6 trades
5 wins, 1 loss
+367 points

SR (YM April only)
9 trades
6 wins, 3 losses
2.11 to 1 ratio
+177 points

FX
74 trades
66 wins, 8 losses
.68 to 1 ratio
+78 R
  • #45,488
  • Edited May 1, 2019 5:19am Apr 30, 2019 9:46pm | Edited May 1, 2019 5:19am
Quoting satish37
{quote} In your post the most beautiful quote , I like is "P.S. All full time DEMO traders, who trades 150 contracts, please do not comment this post, I'm interested in traders with a serious approach. Thank you"

He forgot to mention that he didn't want comments from traders that don't know how to trade without moving averages and oscillators and traders that don't post charts. And it is amazing how some people make demands of others on this thread when we are all here to learn and improve ourselves. If someone has a chart that another person feels has value then great. If the chart doesn't have value then skip it. Remember, this is Mr.Pip's thread and we should worry about ourselves and how we are improving from what we are learning from Mr.Pip. If a trader has issues with someone's charts, then why not help them learn a better way if they are so confident that they know the exact same skills as Mr.Pip.

As far as demo trading.. in my opinion, only a fool would practice demo trading with real money.. unless of course they are making lots of money else where and they have plenty of real money to burn until they have the skills to make this a real business. If you can't win on demo then I doubt a person will win on a live account. The only difference is the personal psychology. And remember.. the holy grail of trading is within each individual. Anyways... I look forward to you posting your charts that show harmonics and price action without moving averages and oscillators. Maybe you can teach me something great with your excellent charts.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #45,489
  • Apr 30, 2019 9:53pm Apr 30, 2019 9:53pm
Hello traders as I am preparing to go live on the real market within the next few weeks, I continue to practice keeping my skills in tacked.

Here is a trade that I took last night. Price has been in a range that is within a couple hundred points for just over a week.

My goal is 20 points per trade. This trade is based on price action first and harmonics second to be a road map for what the price action is already showing.

I once read a comment that one must learn price action before harmonics. Mr.Pip does a fairly good job of demonstrating this with his video lessons.

Anyways... to all those that are learning and continuing to learn.. .... may the odds be in your favor.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #45,490
  • May 1, 2019 3:59am May 1, 2019 3:59am
Quoting Pair-me-up
Hello traders as I am preparing to go live on the real market within the next few weeks, I continue to practice keeping my skills in tacked. Here is a trade that I took last night. Price has been in a range that is within a couple hundred points for just over a week. My goal is 20 points per trade. This trade is based on price action first and harmonics second to be a road map for what the price action is already showing. I once read a comment that one must learn price action before harmonics. Mr.Pip does a fairly good job of demonstrating this...
Pair-me-up,

Good luck on the prep...

Thanks
  • #45,491
  • May 1, 2019 9:59am May 1, 2019 9:59am
I see this quite a lot on 1h forex pairs.

1. Would you have entered a short trade after the expectation failure?
2. If not at the point of failure, where?
3. Perhaps not at all?
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  • #45,492
  • May 1, 2019 10:06am May 1, 2019 10:06am
Quoting rabbitran
I see this quite a lot on 1h forex pairs. 1. Would you have entered a short trade after the expectation failure? 2. If not at the point of failure, where? 3. Perhaps not at all? {image}
If you're trading the immediate order flow then I would short at the arrow you've marked, provided there is some confluence with longer term areas of interest.
  • #45,493
  • May 1, 2019 10:39am May 1, 2019 10:39am
Quoting mtzimmer1
{quote} If you're trading the immediate order flow then I would short at the arrow you've marked, provided there is some confluence with longer term areas of interest.
Here's what I did
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  • #45,494
  • May 1, 2019 10:41am May 1, 2019 10:41am
-5 TICKS - CL
-13 TICKS - ES

Ending the day red but I followed the plan and I was patient. Nothing more I can do, I will be back tomorrow to keep trading the plan.
  • #45,495
  • May 1, 2019 11:09am May 1, 2019 11:09am
Quoting bmdenton23
{quote} Here's what I did {image}
Thanks for sharing. Now I know why you're +78R on a rolling quarter.

Why only 1/10th of a position?
  • #45,496
  • May 1, 2019 11:11am May 1, 2019 11:11am
Quoting mtzimmer1
{quote} If you're trading the immediate order flow then I would short at the arrow you've marked, provided there is some confluence with longer term areas of interest.
Thanks for the confirmation. Expectation failures seem to be good signals to trade.
  • #45,497
  • May 1, 2019 11:31am May 1, 2019 11:31am
2 trades on YM today, +1, +75
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  • #45,498
  • May 1, 2019 11:35am May 1, 2019 11:35am
Quoting rabbitran
{quote} Thanks for sharing. Now I know why you're +78R on a rolling quarter. Why only 1/10th of a position?
I can enter up to 10 times and only take a 1-2% loss if price stops me out. I haven't had a full loss this calendar year.
I almost always give up before then.

To give you an idea of how small I'm trading, the total FX rolling quarter would've been equivalent of +156 YM points for me.
It's nice supplemental $$.
  • #45,499
  • May 1, 2019 12:00pm May 1, 2019 12:00pm
Quoting bmdenton23
{quote} I can enter up to 10 times and only take a 1-2% loss if price stops me out. I haven't had a full loss this calendar year. I almost always give up before then. To give you an idea of how small I'm trading, the total FX rolling quarter would've been equivalent of +156 YM points for me. It's nice supplemental $$.
Hi bmdenton23, I have a question. The last trade. They expectation is for a new structure high. I was waiting to buy. I'm trying to understand why I was bullish while you were bearish. I wonder what does not work in my analisyse. Thank You. Nice trading.
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Time is an illusion, timing is an art.
  • #45,500
  • May 1, 2019 1:02pm May 1, 2019 1:02pm
Quoting JeanValJean.
{quote} Hi bmdenton23, I have a question. The last trade. They expectation is for a new structure high. I was waiting to buy. I'm trying to understand why I was bullish while you were bearish. I wonder what does not work in my analisyse. Thank You. Nice trading. {image}
I don't think there's anything wrong with your analysis, I considered the same order flow. I tend to see PA in about 3 order flows while watching 233/144/89. Unlike most of the other traders here who stick to one order flow, I tend to cherry pick the order flow that I feel best about. Sometimes that works and sometimes it doesn't.
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