Pivot Trading Journal

Mixed news.

EURUSD is still falling down ...

CAD and USD green.
Now I'm really curious...

EURCAD
update...

AUDUSD
AUDJPY
update...

Today's calendar.
Bank holidays.

This is from a book:
PSYCHO-CYBERNETICS,
A New Way to Get More Living Out of Life
By Maxwell Maltz

The Secret of Using This Book to Change Your Life

The Self Image – Your Key to a Better Life
Discovering the Success Mechanism Within You
Imagination – The First Key to Your Success Mechanism
Dehypnotize Yourself from False Beliefs
How to Utilize the Power of Rational Thinking
Relax and Let Your Success Mechanism Work for You
You Can Acquire the Habit of Happiness
Ingredients of the Success – Type Personality and How to Acquire Them
The Failure Mechanism – How to Make it Work for You, Instead of Against You
How to Remove Emotional Scars and Give Yourself “An Emotional Face Lift”
How to Unlock Your Real Personality
Do-It-Yourself Tranquilizers That Bring Peace of Mind
How to Turn a Crisis into a Creative Opportunity
How to Get “That Winning Feeling”
More Years of Life and More Life in Your Years

PSYCHO-CYBERNETICS,
A New Way to Get More Living Out of Life
By Maxwell Maltz

PRACTICE EXERCISE NO. 1
Get a New Mental Picture of Yourself

The unhappy, failure-type personality cannot develop a new self-image by pure will power, or by arbitrarily deciding to. There must be some grounds, some justification, some reason for deciding that the old picture of self is in error, and that a new picture is appropriate. You cannot merely imagine a new self-image; unless you feel that it is based upon truth. Experience has show that when a person does change his self-image, he has the feeling that for one reason or another, he “sees,” or realizes the truth about himself.
The truth in this chapter can set you free of an old inadequate self-image, if you read it often, think intently about the implications, and “hammer home” its truths to yourself.
Science has now confirmed what philosophers, mystics, and other intuitive people have long declared: every human being has been literally “engineered for success” by his Creator. Every human being has access to a power greater than himself.
This means “YOU.”
As Emerson has said, “There are no great and no small.”
If you were engineered for success and happiness, then the old picture of yourself as unworthy of happiness, of a person who was “meant” to fail, must be in error.
Read this chapter through at least three times per week for the first 21 days. Study it and digest it. Look for examples in your experiences, and the experiences of your friends, which illustrate the creative mechanism in action.
Memorize the following basic principles by which your success mechanism operates. You do not need to be an electronic engineer, or a physicist, to operate your own servo-mechanism, any more than you have to be able to engineer an automobile in order to drive one, or become an electrical engineer in order to turn on the light in your room. You do need to be familiar with the following, however, because having memorized them, they will throw “new light” on what is to follow:

1. Your build-in success mechanism must have a goal or “target.” This goal, or target, must be conceived of as “already in existence-now” either in actual or potential form. It operates by either (1) steering you to a goal in existence or by (2) “discovering” something already in existence.
2. The automatic mechanism is teleological, that is, operates, or must be oriented to “end results,” goals. Do not be discouraged because the “means whereby” when you supply the goal. Think in terms of the end result, and the means whereby will often take care of themselves.
3. Do not be afraid of making mistakes, or of temporary failures. All servo-mechanisms achieve a goal by negative feedback, or by going forward, making mistakes, and immediately correcting course.
4. Skill learning of any kind is accomplished by trial and error, mentally correcting aim after an error, until a “successful” motion, movement or performance has been achieved. After that, further learning, and continued success, is accomplished by forgetting the past “errors” and remembering the successful response, so that it can be “imitated.”
5. You must learn to trust your creative mechanism to do its work and not “jam it” by becoming too concerned or too anxious as to whether it will work or not, or by attempting to force it by too much conscious effort. You must “let it” work, rather than “make it” work. This trust is necessary because your creative mechanism operates below the level of consciousness, and you cannot “know” what is going on beneath the surface. Moreover, its nature is to operate spontaneously according to present need. Therefore, you have no guarantees in advance. It comes into operation as you act and as you place a demand upon it by your actions. You must not wait to act until you have proof – you must act as if it is there, and it will come through. “Do the thing and you will have the power,” said Emerson.

Some thoughts related to Pivots (Part #4):

Closed EG +384
why I closed EG? GU not moving north.


This chart demonstrate how this system should be traded.
61R watch PA watch TDI once it starts going south get in. It's simple as that.
If you can't understand then you are not ready don't waste my time.


Its true I make a decision on pairs in one direction then try to get in at key pivots.
GU ONLY long wont sell at these discounted prices. Game plan is to buy the dips!

As Mike already mention 270 ADR is huge for this pair and I do anticipate a correction to south which should be great to build up longs

AU is at exhaustion level R61 don't long now
notice what a fine level was 100S so guys keep your eyes on 61-100 and you will build up your account fast and consistent. Best part you didn't pay me a dime!


Looking at AN closely for my next big trade. Starting from 61S


I actually approved Voti work on the pivot and some like Mch1970 uses regularly and its fine. I take no offense anyone using it. Only difference you see past history pivot levels.
I kind of agree with you that I found no use for it and went back to more or less original pivot indi with flat lines. Since I am trading swings its irrelevant to me where the pivots were last week since average swing lasts less then a week. This kind of cleanses my brain from clutter. New Week new pivots new trades.

Some thoughts related to Pivots (Part #4):

2 scenarios I am anticipating on EG
Price doing AB =CD to 100S but not sure from here now or further up to WP
On sidelines for now


Often 50Fib level corresponds to WP HL divide 2=WP
Once drawn looks like there is probability more correction on bull side to 61fib 8763 area so might wait this out for now. GU hitting the wall now.


Try this. Don't press any sell or buy unless price hits 61 1st then you watch PA reaction then make your move 61-100 and no other trades. If nothing hits then don't trade.
Not trading is part of trading. Just walk away do something else like playing gulf like you do. You are not going to miss out on anything. There is always something coming close to the zone.

Here is the Truth. I keep some funds for emergency situations that should arise either I cut the losers or add to my account to give trades a time. There is set amount $$ I am willing to allow DD which after I cut it. EA came real close but rebounded up and things are looking lot better.
So far up 10% for the month but do have good chunk DD that I will chip away. I don't know if this helps you but overall my strategy is trade small and plan for the worse scenario.

Watching AN strong support now should 38S fail 61 and lower may play
Trading can't be any more simpler. Find set ups watch PA and get in at right zone 61-100.


Watching EC to come down into buy zone. Please don't get in early. You'll be like rookie lion cubs chasing the prey away because they have not mastered the art of ambush yet.
Trading is killing, hunting no mistake about it. Your job is to beat the guy on the other side of the price.


people ask me lot of questions about lot sizes.
Let me give you an example what I do. what is important is how much free margin you have and how much exposure you have from ongoing trades.
example you have 10k account and you have 5% DD which consumed 2k margin so you really have 7.5k free margin to place trades. In this scenario you should not exceed total positions more then 5dollar a pip. If you break up 5dollar a pip to .50 lots you got 10 .5 positions to work with and that's great risk reward ratio.
I hope this helps. Above assumes you have lowest leverage.

Why is this important?
Well average retail trader losses because market is designed to fuck you up. In order for banks to get their orders fill they push price to extremes taking out weak longs/shorts then go opposite direction. AN example today if you had traditional hard stop you were taken out! and you will be pulling your hair now because price rebounded in your direction without you.
BY trading small you are in fact trading like a bank. Your SL becomes wider SAFER hence overall edge lot more winnable.
This is hard for me to explain but people who have traded my system already know what I am talking about. Think like a bank trade like a bank.

Some thoughts related to Pivots (Part #4):

I noticed when I did my first trade using small multiple entries, it helps with mindset too. Instead of thinking "oh no, it's going against me" it's more of a "awsome, I can get a better entry!". Looking at AUD/JPY as a long, but 1hr looks a little too wicky on the upside for me at the moment.
Yes that's part of my system wider price capture.

Lot what I share I took from great books and traders and refined made my own. Multiple entries obviously not new but proper lot size is crucial.
When you do it every week months it becomes normal when others panic I am relaxed composed focused. Got to think how to beat the pink elephant in the room which has the power to move price. You are not going to beat it with trend lines and most traditional trading methods. No because pink elephants already figured your weaknesses and they are coming after you!
I simple terms trading is basically about survival. If you place 20-50pip SL as trading rule you will get drained slowly until your funds are depleted. Trick is confronting this with smaller agile lots that can take advantage of the moves that are designed to take typical retail trader out.
Everything else is just probabilities but you must create the conditions for probability edge to work for you hence my system.

I think most people understood that I meant 50CENTS a lot since 10x.50=is 5dollars
for others like Sagi its 0.05 a lot!!
I expect that you will pay attention to trading with same scrutiny

In you experience, when a pair reached the weekly pivot, how long does it tend to hang around there? for eg. G/J according to my chart just touched the weekly pivot, and I have a bearish harmonic pattern on H1.
You understand that your question is idiotic without being offensive. Nobody knows how long price does what it does and where it does.
Be careful I am sensing a beginner here....and have reputation of kicking them out of here.

I had to close out my AN longs +185pips, would love to hold on to them for longer but need the banked pips for lunch money, I literally rely on small consistent withdrawals, fortunately all my margin is free now for fresh rounds of price hunting! {image}
you got to start thinking longer term equity building. You must build that or be on same level wasting precious time. I have not taken money out of my account in 3yrs.I have a goal once I get there then will start withdrawing.
Because you treat it as such minor "bank" then its natural you will be influenced to get out of trades early...

AC classic pivot system trade and many many exact same charts. Its easy watch wait and get in.

FEDs day be careful of selling USD. My advise DON'T trade none USD crosses until market establishes direction on USD after the event and only if it fits with the system.
Don't try to guess.


Building shorts on AC
Expect it to drop below 100 after rate decision
could spike before going down hence light positions for now


target next pivot but always be aware once it gets there if PA wants to go more or not.
Round numbers are huge as well. Example AU could not break 76 hence I got out. What you don't want to do is set unrealistic expectation then lose the profit you gained already. There is always another trade.

Pay attention to ADR as well. I don't have it on my template for decoration. If normal move on a pair is 100pips a day and it moves 150 and its at 78-100 zone you got extremely high probability trade there.

Talk about the power of my system check out GU right on 61S
and already hundreds and hundreds of examples like it. Evidence is right in front of you!
No repainting NO trend lines none of the nonsense so common here at FF


watch #3 again and let it sink in deeply. This is professional level of understanding how price moves! Its vital to understand clearly
When you really understand this then you will also understand why spikes occur

Some thoughts related to Pivots (Part #4):

If anything I always stressed not taking trades at WP because its in neutral area and can go both ways.

Remember big players always push low to take out weak longs before filling their longs. Happens every day.
Have not added new positions.
This is very similar to EG shooting very high gradually going down.
If you must get out don't cut 100% cut 25% and see how it goes. I use the same method most times gradually getting in and gradually getting out. Worst scenario is you take the big loss then PA shoots up without you. To me markets are in continuous range and it all depends the distance.

Just want to go over what not to do.
Sometimes temptation is there to get in early on trades and its worth going over some basic things to prevent this. WE just had little spike on AU and its above 7650 now. You might be tempted to start building shorts...DON"T
By just looking over the chart its obvious that PA other then this morning's modest drop has been incredibly bullish and there is no reason to expect this may not test 38R yellow box I drew.
So seat tight and relax. Angletaor mostly all green hence should tell you something....


congrats to UC bears. Price went higher then 100R taking stops then dropped nicely.


I tried to share some harmonic concepts which relates to Elliot Wave theory.
When you are in Wave 1 correction phase sometimes helps staying put because often it follows wave 2 and 3 then trend resumes assuming there is a trend.
Easiest way to identify EW is wave 3 is always the longest.
I use zig zag indicator to identify the swings and waves.
You will find my pivots often corresponds to key harmonic or EW turning edges..Its a huge edge not many understand here fully


I get asked questions like my system is proportionally counter trend system. Its both trend following and counter trend. Its up to you how you want to apply it.

i want to know why you closed order on AC ?
that's actually a good question. Notice AU is holding its ground. Had AU moved south and AC moving south would of created easier path for further decline but since AU is holding at 7680 it puts breaks on crosses
Whenever I trade crosses I always look at the majors. This is intuitive after a while.

NU fits the requirements for this system
Anglator 15-1hr Green TDI cross at major pivot

After you take a trade based on rules rest is probabilities and that's important to understand. Don't post crying posts about a trade that didn't work out. Its how should be majority will work out and some wont and that's trading. I hope we are in same page now
The reason I want you guys to watch Mark Douglas videos because he explains clearly the professional mindset of a trader and what an Edge is and what probability is. This is critical to grasp.

Some thoughts related to Pivots (Part #4):

You are a good example why an experienced trader can pile pips and not so experienced lose money. It takes time to sort things out specially how one feels about taking a loss.
I only provided framework to trade but I can't manage other people's trades. Its simple as that.

As anticipated most pairs were priced in.
I took a loss on NU -550 pips

Its not important to share this info. Don't want this thread becoming signal service thread. What is important is on page 1! Its glaringly simple to see where best entries should be.
You are not going to learn from other people's trades without you putting most of the work if not all.

People ask questions that should not be asked on this thread. Its not beginning trading and I will remove you!

Some ask obvious questions where to enter? Well look at GU price almost touched 61S TDI cross and going north strongly.
Can this work every time? No! but that's when concept of probability plays out. If you don't get that please just leave this thread.
I am less tolerant of time wasters now



I use the original almost all times because to me each week is new which means my trading must address with new pivots, new targets. Kind of reset.
Its one of the major reasons why I don't dwell on past data too much beyond present week.

Please how is the daily_open_line indicator used?
It creates a bias. To me it also is a major R/S. By London Open you can see if daily bias is bullish or bearish by which way Daily open price moves from.
Example so far AC is bullish but does not mean it can't turn around when more liquidity enter the market.
Asia session for most part is continuation from previous week day momentum. It seldom deviates from this.The reason again is liquidity.It takes great deal of money turning the pair opposite direction from establish trend for that LO and NY needs to get involve.

Some thoughts related to Trading psychology (Part #4):

Get all Market Wizards books by Jack D. Schwager
He interviewed dozens of top traders and their insights I emulated in my trading as much as I could.
Example from Hedge Fund Market Wizards

"Your message then is that although traders focus almost entirely on where to enter a trade, in reality, the entry size is more important
than the entry price because if the size is right, you are much more likely to stay with a winning trade.
One of the first lessons my first boss taught me was that price is irrelevant; it is all about controlling the size of your position. On a related point, liquidity is also very important. That is why when a merger deal breaks, we cut it straight away because you get a pocket of liquidity. It may be at a much lower level, but at least you have the liquidity. If you wait, the liquidity can dry up, and you will be left with an outsized position in what has become a directional trade."

and more gems
"Trade Within Your Comfort Zone

If a position is too large, the trader will be prone to exit good trades on inconsequential corrections because fear will dominate the decision
process. As Clark advises, you have to “trade within your emotional capacity.” Similarly, Vidich warns, “Limit your size in any position so that fear does not become the prevailing instinct guiding your judgment.” In this sense, a smaller net exposure may actually yield better returns, even if the market ultimately moves in the favorable direction. For example, Taylor came into 2008 with a large net long exposure in high beta stocks in an increasingly risky market. Uncomfortable with the level of his exposure, Taylor sharply reduced his positions in early January. When the market subsequently plunged later in the month, he was well positioned to increase his long exposure. Had Taylor remained heavily net long, he might instead have been forced to sell into the market weakness to reduce risk, thereby missing out in fully participating in the subsequent rebound."

From this thread recently posted.
{quote} Davit did you close ea positions or are you still managing them? I hold the positions but i am afraid
How relevant is that?

Hopefully you guys see my inspiration are wide from math to art and trading experts. What I share here on this thread is pure gold and I am saying this without ego. I banned many traders from here and some even good ones like Rocky who could not follow instruction and that's the key to follow set of philosophy method that works and perfect it. Once you are fluid and profitable then you can tinker to suits your needs but until then master what is shared here. You can't break rules that you don't understand to begin with.

getting tired of trading discussions that does not include probability theory and sample size. Without the understanding of probability its difficult to convey what true trading is.
Most important to get from Mark Douglas is his beautiful eloquent explanation of probability and Edge.

Please read the thread specially on Mark Douglas which has been posted over and over again and even recently some pages back.
I don't need to know what is going to happen to make money. I don't know the future. My trading style is trade small and expect and plan for the worse. So to answer your question price can drop to 200 and I would not care. You see my SL is huge so not going to get stressed about data that I have no control. Did you notice 100S ? ok no more questions its clear right? Read the 1st page!!!
If you have less then 2 yrs experience I advise you leave this thread or you will be banned.

read post 6219 posted by our friend Tamarind77

2. You don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.
Why? Because there is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. (See number 3.) In other words, based on the past performance of your edge, you may know that out of the next 20 trades, 12 will be winners and 8 will be losers. What you don't know is the sequence of wins and losses or how much money the market is going to make available on the winning trades. This truth makes trading a probability or numbers game. When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like right and wrong or win and lose no longer have the same significance. As a result, your expectations will be in harmony with the possibilities. Keep in mind that nothing has more potential to cause emotional discord than our unfulfilled expectations. Emotional pain is the universal response when the outside world expresses itself in a way that doesn't reflect what we expect or believe to be true. As a result, any market information that does not confirm our expectations is automatically defined and interpreted as threatening. That interpretation causes us to adopt a negatively charged, defensive state of mind, where we end up creating the very experience we are trying to avoid. Market information is only threatening if you are expecting the market to do something for you. Otherwise, if you don't expect the market to make you right, you have no reason to be afraid of being wrong. If you don't expect the market to make you a winner, you have no reason to be afraid of losing. If you don't expect the market to keep going in your direction indefinitely, there is no reason to leave money on the table. Finally, if you don't expect to be able to take advantage of every opportunity just because you perceived it and it presented itself, you have no reason to be afraid of missing out. On the other hand, if you believe that all you need to know is:

1. the odds are in your favor before you put on a trade;
2. how much it's going to cost to find out if the trade is going to work;
3. you don't need to know what's going to happen next to make money on that trade; and
4. anything can happen;

Above if understood correctly can transform your trading to professional level. Read it and read it again until it becomes second nature. Its the heart of probability.

Lets take my AN trade. Do I know it will be profitable? No but I do know out of 20 100S/R trades I can hit 80% winning average. That's it. I don't know the outcome of my trades before hand just probabilities of the Edge that is defined on 1st page

Some thoughts related to Trading psychology (Part #4):

Lot of traders have good understanding of technicals but are missing the heart of trading. Concept of probability. Without this insight you will be like a rat running circles for years...
Its the major piece of the puzzle where it hits you hard and you either get it or don't. If you don't then trading is not for you because trading is about randomness and probabilities and this unknown factors should be embraced not be scared. Takes time to grasp the significance.I think Tamarind77 gets it here.

Part 3 is very important when he talks about who can move price. This is why I dismiss all retail volume charts coming from retail brokers because its unreliable. Retail traders don't move price! Have that sink in.

What is interesting that in life there are always random chance effects that changes careers and lives. Even in trading once I make it big I would credit Mark Douglas, Scott Carney, Dirk Du Toit and many others for shaping my trading. Even this thread could change someone's trading for good or worse. So far it seems more good then bad.

look guys I have been totally transparent including telling my DD trades. I have been saying this over and over that you need minimum 3 months large sample size to see how this works.
If you guys trade this 2 weeks win 1 week and lose another and quit then you have learned nothing.
here my last 6 months my account only shows last 6 but its been consistent since 2016 jan.
You can tell that from the dips that I have no issues taking a loss when I am convinced trade is no longer valid.
I can tell you with confidence that I have not had less then 10% a month since Jan 2016 and many months when I hit 18% 20% 25% 20% 16% etc. I am sure there are skeptics and its fine to be skeptic but evidence is on this thread. Look it up.



It happens and we are continuously trying to improve. I like to see larger projections as a goal. You may had bad week but great quarter. They are 4 Quarters in a year and if you can hit 20-25% minimum a quarter that's almost 100% return a year.
Best hedge funds lucky to get 30% return a year. Most will be happy even with 10% so you got to think big both projections and time it takes to achieve it.
I read many members here trading over 10yrs still showing no profit....Truth is you have a head start here exhilarating your learning curve on higher level. Trust me I wished someone showed this to me 4yrs ego...like I am doing now to you guys. Saying this without ego.

Aussie drive was unprecedented and I was frustrated myself.
Don't beat yourself. New week new trades! Always have a quarter in mind that's 3 months. If you can hit 25% gain a Q then that's 100% return a year.
Trading to me is like looking at the painting. When you are too close to it you only see a detail but must step back to see the whole thing.

If you are too nervous about profits or losses then your positions are too big. If it effects your decisions then you must adjust how you trade.

I basically try hitting next pivot then wait and see if price wants to go further but if opposite momentum is too great then I just get out even with minimum gain or losses.

Nice to see lot of you making money
My best advise is learn the system and improve yourself. Write down mistakes go over them exercise restrain and overall show commitment to get better.
Trading is much like Chess. If you don't push yourself to get better you will be on same level as always and repeating same mistakes as always. Got to break your shell and challenge yourself. If your issue is early entry then work on it! Show patience and resolution to get better!
Having said above its also important to understand that every trade contains X factors that you simply don't know. It only becomes more focused after the fact hence pad your back for achieving profitable week, a month.

Some thoughts related to Trading psychology (Part #4):

I recommend to play chess regularly in fact I play lots of 5min games in between trades or waiting for it.
go chess.com and sign up for free
computer pairs you someone that has your rating level. Lots of fun. Chess sharpens your ability to think and pay attention specially to details. Everything that one needs in trading and more.
Chess forces your brain to make new neuron connections hence its healthy for your brain among other benefits. Anyway thought to share
http://www.healthfitnessrevolution.c...enefits-chess/

I love Chess...have not played in a while. Used to meet with a friend and play...he would teach me a lesson everytime...but it kept me sharp and consistently learning...until he moved a year ago. Have not played since. Will look at this for sure.
You'll find after few sharp games looking at the chart everything becomes more in focus. What I mean everything is news PA pivots mostly. In chess when you make a move its always in relation to other pieces on the board. You kind of start seeing the chart same way. You look at majors to see how crosses are doing, news due in 5min then you look at how PA is doing and how that might effect crosses. These kind of combination observations is critical in trading because it requires you be aware or pay the price of ignorance.

Dendrites are the tree-like branches that conduct signals from other neural cells into the neurons they are attached to. Think of them like antennas picking up signals from other brain cells. The more antennas you have and the bigger they are, the more signals you’ll pick up. Learning a new skill like chess-playing causes dendrites to grow. But that growth doesn’t stop once you’ve learned the game; interaction with people in challenging activities also fuels dendrite growth, and chess is a perfect example.

Doctors used to think that humans stop making new neuron connections past early adulthood but new research shows in fact your brain grows all your life when property stimulated.

The problem is you might get it right this time and get encouraged then repeat same on faster pair then get yourself in a hole. The point I am trying to make is This is not part of my system.
I try to create max edge for traders and this is not.
I also repeated hundreds of times people to use low leverage and small lots then some people go do opposite and stop posting here and my assumption is they lost money and failed to follow instruction. Nothing to do what I teach here. Got to say its very easy to make good money trading this system one only needs to follow simple rules. The key here is follow rules...

you welcome but you have no edge on your trade. Please follow page 1 rules
guys don't force trades please. Don't get into "I am afraid to miss out trade" and end up taking mediocre trades. Take your time they will come. If you take 1 batch of great trade a week based on my rules you can easily hit 10% a month.

Edge is between 61-100 pivots. Trades at WP are toss up trades. It can go either way.
If you have less then 2yrs of forex experience I suggest not trading this method. Its clear on my 1st page.

pivot is an indicator!! Depends how you use it. Your issue is impatience! Probably all psychological. Seriously work on yourself. Its not the market that's for sure.
If you have not watched Mark Douglas videos then do. Its priceless.
By the way Price is an indicator, Japanese candles is an indicator so people saying I trade naked charts are full of shit. Its not "naked"
You must firmly understand what true probability is. Most system threads never talk about this hence why I didn't want to start a thread there. Understand this deeply and you will start seeing things where you could not before. Trading is basically a probability game and guys who understand profit from it and others continue chasing illusive goals and never achieve and end up quitting or get drained from their funds. Understand what is probability.

I love watching nature videos specially lions. When young lions follow adults for hunting they almost always start attacking too early and prey runs away. Then they watch the adults taking their time and attacking at the right time to increase the chance for successful hunt and learn the process..
We are hunting other traders. That's just the reality. You have to ask yourself "where is my edge" vs the other side. This entire thread is about an EDGE ...

I think its important to recognize mistakes probably lot more then anything else.
For myself sudden dollar surge last week started with UC caught me off guard. I thought perhaps Trump address speech had something in it and it did but real driver was Feds officials giving clear signals that March rate is live event. This I missed reading properly hence entered early on UC at 61R and the week ended at 138R far higher then I anticipated.
When shit like this happens we can blame family errands distractions etc but bottom line is we put money on the table then we own that responsibility and I clearly failed to read the market properly. This admission is to myself and to you guys that yes mistakes happen but how we go around solving is the real deal.
If your account is in danger or DD is too big cut 25% loss and wait to see how PA will carry next week. From my experience sharp moves often follow sharp corrections and you might get out with profit or minimum damage.
Last year I had EG short and unexpected Brexit send this to sky high level decided to wait it out and eventually came down to reasonable level to take the loss. Recovered and moved on building my account. This is trading dealing with adverse situations. Not everything works out.
I guess what I am saying is mistakes do happen because in trading there are lots of X factors that you don't know hence don't beat yourself. Manage the situation calmly and methodically.

Some thoughts related to Trading psychology (Part #4):

True anything can happen also means everyone must have a cut out point when the trade clearly does not work. I have my SL and have no issues taking a loss.
My system is based on large sample size quarterly as a measuring criteria. You might have a loss a week maybe 2 but end up winning a month and way profitable quarter.
This system can be traded both against and with the trend. When price is at 61-100 there is no edge going with the trend. Its only apparent after the fact. I have been observing this very keenly and my conclusion is most times 70-80% price goes into correction at these levels hence the edge is severely diminished going with the trend.
Take Example UJ how many times you would of taken a loss going up? say 14.50 area? Several times. How many times selling at 14.50 would of netted great profits? Just look at your chart. I think "anything can happen" is equivalent that if you drive a car you risk getting killed. Does that mean we stop driving a car? No it just means you could die doing it. Its a healthy warning that we must all have SL's in case should that be necessary.

Looking at the chart on UJ last 4 swings buying at the "zone" would of cost you great deal. Where is the edge? going with the "trend"?
When price runs over the "zone" most often there is fundametal factor and that's on my 1st page and the reason I share great deal of fundametal info here on this thread. This thread is not all technical. I pay attention to both. Since I have a family and full time job its challenging at times to keep up with news but I try.


I don't have lots of time but I like to emphasize what I am mean higher probability trades

My pivot system is based on pivots 61 good Probability 78 better then good 100 A+ set ups
Now here is the real heart of the matter let’s say you took 100 trades at 100 S/R you most likely will hit 80% winning trades. This means risk reward ratio in your favor hands down!!
Once you understand risk (lot size positions in multiple entries) and balance with reward you have a quantitative EDGE
If you enter 61 and build positions to 100 its still great risk reward spread! This is my core trading principles
Some exceptions when strong fundamentals are at play I suggest stay out until things clear and settle and provide reaction trades..
To me I have not found anything yet to beat these ideas shared here. Control your risk and rip pips. Its not hard.

Why I like Mark Douglas
He is the only one who clearly stated price is moved by dynamic traders. This eliminates mindless ideas of drawing trend lines and watching typical wiggly lines etc. Does not matter because you simply don't know what that X trader will do and when. Another myth is volume which is connected to retail feed from your broker another useless data.
What I am sharing here is deeper. It’s about dynamic traders flipping sides and happens on 61-100 most often because it’s based on fibs and that has deeper human connection and is part of Elliot wave theory. So my pivots attack the source where you have the higher probability trades occurring.

look at AU chart for example. You think its accident that price reversed at 61R -78 and stalled at 61S? Maybe yes but not when it happens frequently cross multiple pairs including metals
You either will get my system or you won't...I think I more then enough explained it here.

Once you un-brainwash yourself from Moving averages and volume analyses and look at my system with fresh eyes you will see the gold nuggets.
This is if you are ready mentally to really understand.
You really don't need more indicators. Its all here on my template.


I think your issues in general is money management and lot size. This might take some time to sort out. I don't think its system related.
This is not unique to you and we all go through with it. My motto on this thread has been trade small and there is logic beyond that. You can go trade different system different style different TF but without addressing underlying aspect of lot size and SL it will resurface again no matter what system you trade.

Some thoughts related to Trading psychology (Part #4):

like to share this
from Millionaire traders

"Once I reach my weekly goal, I either stop trading or reduce the size of the trades so far that I cant possibly do any damage to my account. The
overarching goal for me is to protect the account, then all I have to do after that is make money every week and build the account bit by bit. The most amazing financial discovery in the history of humankind is the principle of compounded gains. I tell this to every new trader: If you can build your account, bit by bit, you will realize spectacular profits over the long run, even if it doesnt look like much in the short term. I might be overemphasizing this point. But it has been important for me to remember that making money as a trader means that I grind out regular profits, over and over again, and focus on consistency, not on the big score or a huge lottery-type payoff."

His weekly target is 50-100pips and earlier he was talking about his weekly pips goal and not being in competition with anyone.
Important fact is trading is grinding it out every day. You add even 20dollars is still great, day in and out and you build your account.

Psycho Cybernetics
This is an amazing book and philosophy core values I adhere to. You must work on your mind.

so many gold nuggets just sharing some

"Nobody Is Right All the Time. Realize that it is not required that a man be 100 per cent right at all times. No baseball batter has ever had a
1000 average. If he is right three times out of ten he is considered good. The great Babe Ruth, who holds the record, for the most home runs, also holds the record for the most strike-outs. It is in the nature of things that we progress by acting, making mistakes, and correcting
course. A guided torpedo literally arrives at its target by making a series of mistakes and continually correcting its course. You cannot correct your course if you are standing still. You cannot change or correct "nothing." you must consider the known facts in a situation, imagine possible consequences of various courses of action, choose one that seems to offer the best solution—and bet on it. you can correct your course as you go. Only "Little Men" Are "Never Wrong".

Another help in overcoming uncertainty is to realize the role that self-esteem, and the protection of self-esteem, play in indecisiveness. Many people are indecisive because they fear loss of self-esteem if they are proved wrong. Use self-esteem for yourself, instead of against
yourself, by convincing yourself of this truth: Big men and big personalities make mistakes and admit them. It is the little man who is afraid to admit he has been wrong. "No man ever became great or good except through many and great mistakes," said Gladstone. "I have
learned more from my mistakes than from my successes," said Sir Humphry Davy. "We learn wisdom from failure much more than from success; we often discover what will do, by finding out what will not do; and probably he who never made a mistake never made a discovery."—
Samuel Smiles. "Mr. Edison worked endlessly on a problem, using the method of elimination. If a person asked him whether he were discouraged because so many attempts proved unavailing, he would say, 'No, I am not discouraged, because every wrong attempt discarded is another step forward.' "—Mrs. Thomas A. Edison.

I like to share that even though I am in RED this month my confidence in trading is unchanged and my goals have not been altered and my spirit has not been destroyed by family or other circumstances. Trading is much more its your inner self against unknown factors and how you deal with it determines the overall outcome..
I have seen traders gave up after blowing few accounts in 2-3years and never knowing how close they were to succeed. Key in my opinion is not in systems including this but having strong trading and life psychology. This is the reason why share about trading psychology. Its important.
lets have great profitable week ahead!

Some thoughts related to Fundamentals (Part #4):

Watch the crude price to see how much strength is left on this
crude drops UC goes up and reverse

My system in general winning hits are about 80% and 20% losses usually occur when fundamentals or other factors influence price.
Example unnatural artificial weakness on USD caused by Trump tweets.
Happens. Its part of trading and probabilities. One never expects to hit every trade or if you do then you must be an idiot. Does not happen.

I commend you for having proper lot size. Its one of the keys to succeed in trading.

I often like trading commodity pairs against each other.
CAD AUD NZD
Aussie is performing well beyond expectations and fundamentally should not be. After tonight's rate decision or tomorrows depending where you live Aussie should deflate.

When UJ is dropping I recommend not selling the Yen on the crosses. This is basic! I won't mention again importance of watching the majors for crosses.

Trading is sort of balancing factors. Its an ART. Like music, painting etc. When I place a trade I look at the News, Majors and any big fundamental factors that can be against me. It's never been purely mechanical. There is lots of filtering going on.

Few thoughts for new guys.
Pull the calendar at FF and go over every red news next week and think how that might effect the currencies.
Doing this every weekend Sat or Sun will help you to be in tune with the market and you have a head start what is coming.
Pay attention to GDT on Tues effecting NZD pairs Change in the average price of dairy products sold at auction
and pay attention to rest.

It will be great if Aussie bounce to 76.80-77 to short below 76.This is overvalued currency. Feds have not send any cue that they are not planning to hike hence March is live meeting. As usual market prices in before that happens. WE could see sharp decline AU to 74 and below and possible AN below 400

You guys should read Kathy Lien article I posted.

To me trading is both fundamental and technical. In my style of trading I try to be on the correct side with fundies and watch pivots for technical entries.
Example with Feds and hikes and stronger US economy I would not buy the Aussie on these levels. So will be shorting only. Most already know that I trade one direction on every pair and don't flip flap buy sell etc. I stay on course or get out.
Interesting I have never bought AC but always sold AC and have pretty much 100% win rate on this pair. on UC never bought always sold and similar results...Why? fundamentals

Did you guys get that? Yellen does not see hikes with every meeting! This is important she just dismissed 4hike callers.
This is good for USD bears from now to next 40days
I hope you guys are listenning

UC dropping like stone 32 would be nice

Aussie dollar still strong. Looks like shitload of funds transferred to Aussie for "safe heaven" this despite of red numbers on sales and unemployment
I think Aussie will weaken soon as soon as iron ore prices decline or simply market makers start dumping this overblown currency.
got lots of trades in DD and not very happy about it some are my mistakes just have not had time to really manage my traders. Its been chaotic March for me but its ok.
There is deep philosophy of forgiving yourself only way to go forward.

PSYCHO-CYBERNETICS,
A New Way to Get More Living Out of Life
By Maxwell Maltz

PRACTICE EXERCISE:

“Hold a picture of yourself long and steadily enough in your mind’s eye and you will be drawn toward it,” said Dr. Harry Emerson Fosdick. “Picture yourself vividly as defeated and that alone will make victory impossible. Picture yourself vividly as winning and that alone will contribute immeasurably to success. Great living starts with a picture, held in your imagination, of what you would like to do or be.”
Your present self-image was built upon your own imagination pictures of yourself in the past which grew out of interpretations and evaluations which you placed upon experience. Now you are to use the same method to build an adequate self-image that you previously used to build an inadequate one.
Set aside a period of 30 minutes each day where you can be alone and undisturbed. Relax and make yourself as comfortable as possible. Now close your eyes and exercise your imagination.
Many people find they get better results if they imagine themselves sitting before a large motion picture screen – and imagine that they are seeing a motion picture of themselves. The important thing is to make these pictures as vivid and as detailed as possible. You want your mental pictures to approximate actual experience as much as possible. The way to do this is pay attention to small details, sights, sounds, objects, in your imagined environment. One of my patients was using this exercise to overcome her fear of the dentist. She was unsuccessful, until she began to notice small details in her imagined picture – the smell of the antiseptic in the office, the feel of the leather on the chair arms, the sight of the dentist’s well-manicured nails as his hands approached her mouth, etc. Details of the imagined environment are all-important in this exercise, because for all practical purposes, you are creating a practice experience. And if the imagination is vivid enough and detailed enough, your imagination practice is equivalent to an actual experience, insofar as your nervous system is concerned.
The next important thing to remember is that during this 30 minutes you see yourself acting and reacting appropriately, successfully, ideally. It doesn’t matter how you acted yesterday. You do not need to try to have faith you will act in the ideal way tomorrow. Your nervous system will take care of that in time – if you continue to practice. See yourself acting, feeling, “being,” as you want to be. Do not say to yourself, “I am going to act this way tomorrow.” Just say to yourself – “I am going to imaging myself acting in this way now – for 30 minutes – today.” Imagine how you would feel if you were already the sort of personality you want to be. If you have been shy and timid, see yourself moving among people with ease and poise – and feeling good because of it. If you have been fearful and anxious in certain situations – see yourself acting calmly and deliberately, acting with confidence and courage – and feeling expansive and confident because you are.
This exercise builds new “memories” or stored data into your mid-brain and central nervous system. It builds a new image of self. After practicing it for a time, you will be surprised to find yourself “acting differently,” more or less automatically and spontaneously – “without trying.” This is as it should be. You do not need to “take thought” or “try” or make an effort now in order to feel ineffective and act inadequately. Your present inadequate feeling and doing is automatic and spontaneous, because of the memories, real and imagined, you have built into your automatic mechanism. You will find it will work just as automatically upon positive thoughts and experiences as upon negative ones.