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Pivot Trading

  • #28,881
  • Apr 16, 2019 7:28am Apr 16, 2019 7:28am
It's impossible to make predictions.

We can rely on forecast but it's better don't trust them too much, this morning German ZEW was expected slightly positive instead it came out much stronger, RBA minutes were dovish and AUD at first hit by this news now is surging. This commodity currency week make them extra volatile and timing becomes the key.

For example, I wasn't quite ready to pick up the sudden reversal on AC.
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Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #28,882
  • Apr 16, 2019 7:40am Apr 16, 2019 7:40am
Quoting bubincka
It's impossible to make predictions. We can rely on forecast but it's better don't trust them too much, this morning German ZEW was expected slightly positive instead it came out much stronger, RBA minutes were dovish and AUD at first hit by this news now is surging. This commodity currency week make them extra volatile and timing becomes the key. For example, I wasn't quite ready to pick up the sudden reversal on AC. {image}
It's just a matter of time. The only Problem is expensive swap. Let me hope MM will not consolidate XXJPY pairs until
next week, JPY interest decision.
  • #28,883
  • Apr 16, 2019 7:41am Apr 16, 2019 7:41am
Closed EC in some nice profit.

Only in EU at the moment, TP was at PP but it did not hit, positive swaps still holding for positive USD news later on in the week
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?
  • #28,884
  • Edited 9:09am Apr 16, 2019 7:52am | Edited 9:09am
Quoting bubincka
It's impossible to make predictions. We can rely on forecast but it's better don't trust them too much, this morning German ZEW was expected slightly positive instead it came out much stronger, RBA minutes were dovish and AUD at first hit by this news now is surging. This commodity currency week make them extra volatile and timing becomes the key. For example, I wasn't quite ready to pick up the sudden reversal on AC. {image}
Im thinking that the trades you placed at the W61 should have been closed out before news. Scaling in more at W38 was risky. Trading pivots is essentially trading mean reversion. At some point, price may revisit your original entries.
Trade with confidence, trade without fear.
  • #28,885
  • Apr 16, 2019 8:03am Apr 16, 2019 8:03am
Closed my GU from last week. Missed some opportunities before, and im glad, that i dont panic closed in loss
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  • #28,886
  • Apr 16, 2019 8:14am Apr 16, 2019 8:14am
EC 0910 EDT Close Below Daily Open. NC also Close Below
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  • #28,887
  • Edited 8:40am Apr 16, 2019 8:15am | Edited 8:40am
Quoting Cryptosurf
{quote} Im thinking that the trades you placed at the W61 should have been closed out before news. Scaling in more at W38 was risky. Trading pivots is essential trading mean reversion. At some point, price may revisit your original entries.
Hi Cryptosurf,

I think the same as you.

Differently from other times that I can't be in front of the screen this time I could but I didn't.
Consider it a mistake induced by a mix of bias in reading PA and greed.

I have already noticed it a little later, all in all nothing serious, still in the game-

Edit: trades below WR38 come from last week, they're in DD after yesterday's BOC survey and subsequent CAD drop.

Best regards,
Bubincka
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #28,888
  • Apr 16, 2019 8:16am Apr 16, 2019 8:16am
I been getting PM's asking to explain mean reversion.

Here's a pic showing the basic concept:

Attached Image


Within the long term cycles is the "shorter term variability." That's essentially what we are trading here. As price swings to either side it may/will return to cycle continuation. That's why it's important to take the trades at the outermost levels and take profit before it comes back to you.
Trade with confidence, trade without fear.
  • #28,889
  • Apr 16, 2019 8:43am Apr 16, 2019 8:43am
Quoting mizi123
GC make sense to be monitored all criteria has mate ... {image} {image}
Has kicked down these was out of projection but when criteria is mate i move left or right!
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  • #28,890
  • Apr 16, 2019 8:54am Apr 16, 2019 8:54am
AN is best pair to watch for tonight (for mee) event on news relese CPI on NZD until then have good afternoon all
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  • #28,891
  • Apr 16, 2019 8:54am Apr 16, 2019 8:54am
US Oil Plunge!
Exited EC + 45!!!!
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  • #28,892
  • Apr 16, 2019 9:04am Apr 16, 2019 9:04am
I tried to use the News_Events indicator, and was unsuccessful. It would not download the xml. Then I changed the https in the web address to http. The indicator now works for me. Can someone with the mq4 make the change and re-post it, or even better, post the mq4, so I can make the user inputs what I want them to be, therefore hard-coding my preferences into the user inputs and not having to keep a separate preset file I have to load every time I use the indicator?

Thanks!

Kindest regards,

Don
  • #28,893
  • Apr 16, 2019 9:04am Apr 16, 2019 9:04am
Quoting Cryptosurf
{quote} Im thinking that the trades you placed at the W61 should have been closed out before news. Scaling in more at W38 was risky. Trading pivots is essential trading mean reversion. At some point, price may revisit your original entries.
This is a really good point. I really enjoy learning from your posts. This scenario has really played out on my AUD short positions, luckily I had taken partial profits coz one of my trade mgmt rules Involves a lot of partial tp and loss taking too. Now I am completely Flat with a 206 pip gain! and looking forward for tomorrow, been trading since 4AM!
Thank you and thank u Davit for this incredible thread and system!
  • #28,894
  • Apr 16, 2019 9:07am Apr 16, 2019 9:07am
Quoting Gmo
US Oil Plunge! Exited EC + 45!!!! {image}
i'm still hold EC
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  • #28,895
  • Edited 10:23am Apr 16, 2019 9:17am | Edited 10:23am
Took EC Short
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Closed my EC Short up 409 Pips. I might have gotten too out early, we shall see but I am happy, still learning and have learned to accept the decisions I make.
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You NEVER will be the person you could be, without pressure & discipline
  • #28,896
  • Apr 16, 2019 9:18am Apr 16, 2019 9:18am
Quoting disbellj
I tried to use the News_Events indicator, and was unsuccessful. It would not download the xml. Then I changed the https in the web address to http. The indicator now works for me. Can someone with the mq4 make the change and re-post it, or even better, post the mq4, so I can make the user inputs what I want them to be, therefore hard-coding my preferences into the user inputs and not having to keep a separate preset file I have to load every time I use the indicator? Thanks! Kindest regards, Don
Don't ask someone, ask the coder your self as he is part of this thread.
We obey the structure that results from the market's reaction
  • #28,897
  • Edited 10:06am Apr 16, 2019 9:25am | Edited 10:06am
Closed out EC. WOuld have definitely added at R78 if I would have been awake during that time, +40 pips.

Closed out UCad also, +67 pips.
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  • #28,898
  • Apr 16, 2019 9:36am Apr 16, 2019 9:36am
GC and UC playing nice, closed some in EC and added some...
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Take what you can, give nothing back
  • #28,899
  • Apr 16, 2019 9:37am Apr 16, 2019 9:37am
EC Coupled up again!! Davit would have scolded me to get out before! Also in NC.
In the Zone!
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  • #28,900
  • Apr 16, 2019 9:38am Apr 16, 2019 9:38am
Only trades that are in profit now...

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Others are still in DD...
We're not here to be right, we're here to Profit Consistently!
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