Pivot Trading Journal

EURUSD is a little bit overstretched. ADR 140%.

This is from a book:
The Secrets To: Emotion Free Trading
“How To Consistently Act In Your Own Best Interest With Your Off-The-Floor Trading!”
Written By Larry Levin

Why visualization techniques works!
The question often comes up of why visualization techniques work so well and why so many people use them on a daily basis. It’s really very simple. Everyone has a self-image or, in but nevertheless, that picture will influence your behavior in extreme ways.

For instance, let’s say you think of yourself as person who lacks coordination. That alone will cause you to drop things easily, possibly slip and fall, as well as other things that go along with a lack of coordination. Your self-image (picture you have of yourself) will always control your behavior. So, on the other hand, if you see yourself as a very coordinated person, that will go along way to helping you be sure-footed. The power your self-image has over you is remarkable.

So the key to acting the way you want is to first change your self-image. Once you change your self-image, your behavior will change quickly and almost automatically.

A good example that we mentioned before was a person trying to lose weight. A person will never be able to stick to a good diet and exercise unless they first see themselves as a thinner person. Once they see themselves (in their mind’s eye) as a different person, it’s easy to change their behavior. They can easily eat healthier foods and make it to the health club several days a week. But they won’t be able to do this until they see the new picture of themselves.

This is why using willpower to try and change a habit almost never works. Sure you may be able to force yourself to eat better foods and get to the health club for a few days, but if you don’t change the picture you have of yourself, you won’t be able to sustain it.
Your self-image will say, “what are you doing, you’re not a person who goes to the health club and eats all these fruits and vegetables.” And then you will go back to your old habits. But if you change your self-image using visualization techniques, then your new healthy habits can take over and changing your behavior will be almost effortless, where before changing those habits would have been a huge amount of fighting with your will. But willpower wouldn’t work anyway, your self-image is always much stronger.

What Does This Have To Do With Trading?
The same is true for trading. If you have the self-image of a trader who’s scared and afraid to pull the trigger, then being successful and making money will be next to impossible even before you start. On the other hand, if you have the self-image of a disciplined trader who acts in his own best interest, that alone will go along way to making money consistently.

But you can’t just say O.K., I now will be a confident disciplined trader and then expect it to happen. That is like trying to use willpower to force yourself to go to the health club. Just saying it is not enough. You need to use visualization on a daily basis to change that picture of yourself.
The skills you’ve learned here will help you to change that picture so you can become the kind of trader you want to be. But make no mistake about it, if the self-image is not changed first, the behavior will not change! It’s that simple.

Calm Body, Calm Mind – This is a Psycho-Cybernetic imbedded command. Each time you completely relax physically, you are to program your mind with the statement, “Calm body, Calm Mind.” By doing this repeatedly and frequently, you will arrive at a point where merely verbalizing this command will cause you to instantly relax, mentally and physically.

Clearing the Calculator – This is a creative Psycho-Cybernetic mental training technique to “clear” all competing thoughts and distractions, and focus entirely, 100% on one thought.

Failure Mechanism – The mechanism that produces negative results when you constantly picture your past failures.

Forgiveness – An important part of Psycho-Cybernetics, to live successfully, you must completely forgive yourself as well as others.

Mental Movies – The vividly detailed “moving picture” you project onto the screen in the theater of your mind for various purposes. When using a mental movie to fuel goal achievement, remember to make yourself the star of a movie presenting that goal as if you have already achieved it.

Mental Picture – A vividly detailed “still picture” or snapshot that summaries a mental movie.

Self-Image – The picture each of us has of ourselves. This picture has been created by our experiences and beliefs, and it controls our behavior.

Servo-Mechanism – A “servant mechanism” that automatically recalls, assembles and attracts the resources needed to respond to a particular command or goal. The human servo-mechanism is part of the subconscious mind. It can be a “Success Mechanism” or a “Failure Mechanism.”

Success Mechanism – The mechanism that produces positive result when you constantly picture your past successes.

Synthetic Experience, Real Experience – Much of creative Psycho-Cybernetics is based on the simple, well-established premise that “synthetic experience” is as good as a “real experience” in imprinting the subconscious mind in order to pre-determine future results. “Synthetic Experience” is imagined in the theater of your mind.

Theater of Your Mind – This is a “place” you create in your mind, in considerable detail, so that you can “go to it” instantly, at any time, any place. Your theater should include a giant movie screen where you can create and play mental movies.

I had an "old" sell limit on AUDUSD at R100.
Short ...

game is over ...

Phase of Success- The word ‘success’ is used to describe eight stages that a person must go through on their quest to becoming a confident version of themselves with a positive self-image. Becoming this person is necessary for achieving any version of success. Success stands for (S)ense of direction, as in your goals, (U)nderstanding the needs of yourself and others, (C)ourage, (C)ompassion, (E)steem and self-respect, (S)elf-acceptance, or learning to love yourself regardless of mistakes, and finally, (S)elf-confidence. The idea is that by following these steps that will ultimately improve your self-image, you can create a mental environment that motivates you and encourages success.

From book:
Psycho-Cybernetics: Updated and Expanded
by Maxwell Maltz

Some thoughts related to Pivots (Part #3):

ok guys let me put this out there

I have been always recommended to trade small. That's to control the trade properly.
Let me give you an example if you have 2k account and your Euro trade is -$300 that should of been cut way earlier at -100 max. I can't manage your account but we are dealing in Forex that anything can happen.
I have been very transparent and open and have mentioned there is 30% chance given sample size pivot zone 61-100 does not hold. Usually happens on strong fundamental factor like today Feds minutes. Other then that there are losses on every system. Its just part of trading.
I am up for the month +11.5% and if I have to give back 5% that's totally fine by me. I accept the risk from beginning. I mean I accept that anything can happen and prepared to deal with it.
I don't know the future. Euro could sky rocket after the minutes or tank to 09.You have to assess your risk tolerance why I insist trade small.
Mike here took a -900pip loss on EG. While that might be decent size loss but I give him huge kudos for doing it. He dealt with it and moved on. You got to manage your trades.
Posting you are xxx pips in DD does not help anyone. Only you know what that means in relation to your account

Let me share what I do once again which I think is lot better SL then hard SL
1.You decide you want to trade EU
2.You set a budget say 3% risk of your account $300
3.You break lot to mini lots so that would give you 5-6 entries
4.Wait for proper set up
5. Place orders in gradual way and assess if its working or not. If not get out before you hit your budget but if it does have a chance to work stay and place more entries. Your SL is your budget NOT PIPS once you hit -300 you are out. That could be 200+pips distance which usually does not happen often. This is what I do

Setting a budget for the trade gives you psychological preparedness that you already accepted the risk before even placed a trade.
This way there is no ambiguity you know what you are getting into. This is trading dealing with loss is crucial part of it.

Want to add also
In any given trading method you must give it at least minimum 3 months to see the true result.
Large sample size. Reason lot of traders fail is not because of systems but not staying long enough with any system to see the result. They take 5 losses and move on to next then take another 3 losses then move to next. Takes time to learn a system. You have to stick with it and become master of it then trading becomes ridiculously easy.
So there is a good chance 95% of posters here won't be here in 3months. I just know from experience and its not because system is not profitable. Mostly its traders ineptness dealing with risk. Main reason why I have a disclaimer on 1st page 2 yr experience because its very likely after 2yrs you know what risk is.
So stick with this or move on to another system but honestly its not about systems its understanding what probability edge is about. Most don't understand this concept clearly which is why I insist people to watch Mark Douglas videos. The guy is brilliant and had been true trader for decades and knew what he was talking about.

Good trade managing. When you trade small it allows trade time to work. Example today EA was way down this morning 10hrs ego in traditional method you would of taken the loss or your SL would of been hit but we got nice bounce from "the pivot zone" and now all orders in profit. The reason it worked because we have a probability Edge and by trading smaller lots we allow time for the Edge to play out in our favor. Goes without saying that there are times when we must take the loss.
This is what this thread is about. Compounding winners by trading small. You will be surprised how fast your account will grow by trading smaller lots.

I try to simplify everything. Main question you have to ask is this. Does the original trade still valid. The reasons of your trade in the 1st place. If yes you add more positions to me irregardless if previous entries are red however if the reasons you got in is no longer works get out. You have to treat ME as 1 trade with mini legs. Sort of like a fish net.
Adding to winning position is ideal. That's how Jesse Livermore build his massive fortunes in the 20's and 30's with little starting capital. Book is on my profile. Very fascinating character.
Nothing I do is new. The idea of pivot points originated from Jesse Livermore I believe and later refined by others.
I think main difference of this thread vs others is that I try to get people think like a professorial trader with probabilities in mind. We don't die or live on 1 trade.
This concept of probability is pretty much absent from all threads in system forum. Unless one really understands what probability Edge is you can trade years and go nowhere..Its the key to break through and grow as a trader

When you have to take a loss I advise not taking it totally. If example like EA is at attractive level and has a great chance to rebound however if the account is stressed you can take 50% loss or 30% then should price drop 50-75pips lower then you can buy lower and have better overall chance of getting out and even make profit.
I often do this when I sense I am right but PA just didn't go along.
Friday was unusual day.

I generally add positions between 61-100 pivots. You also have to watch if the trade is working meaning has chance to succeed.
Good edge trade is now NU 78R and didn't pass 100 hence has a good probability to retrace.
Its best to add more if previous orders in profit then move SL BE and then continue. Adding to winners generally is what I recommend as Arjun demonstrated on his last GU longs.

Some thoughts related to Pivots (Part #3):

PA is bearish now. Should Draghi move EU north which I think most likely scenerio GU will sail up on the wings of EU as well but in case opposite GU will follow EU south.
Key player today is ECB

never mind you cut is loose which I think its wise considering uncertainty of what's coming up.
Notice guys he ONLY had 1 position and cut it with extreme minor loss but he collected mega over 1k pips with ME positions. That's the advantage of ME cut it light but build it strong.
Well done managing the trade.

this should answer both questions. Its from my trading plan

I don't use traditional hard stops. I trade totally different them most traders. I use real actual $$ for stops and not pips.
Example I like to short NU 7120
My budget for this is 2-3% of account risk say $500 for example. I then enter trades on mini lots and as long as my 500 is not consumed on DD and I am still confident of my trade I stay on it. I may choose to get out early but most times my SL is predetermined. This allows me to cast a wider net. So, my 10mini lots can cover 50pip distance hence capture better RR

STOP LOSS
1 Decide how much each swing is worth example $500
2. Divide $500 into mini lots for multiple entries example .50c a pip gives 1000 pip distance
3. This allows averaging in orders as seen fit irregardless if previous orders are in red
4. Orders are placed as long as reason for trade is still valid
5. If conditions change loss is taken since orders are not all placed all at once this allows smaller loss
Swings
Each Swing investment $500
Swing is taken as loss once -$500 is reached
There are no exceptions. No running red beyond $500
Orders broken down into mini lots that satisfies each swing consist of 10-15 trades

Yes lot size matters and it matters on so many levels. You have to consider you could take 6-10 losses in a row and still not be effected and carry on. Most traders trading bigger lots same situation A they already depleted the account B psychology crashed. Under these conditions recovering is hard and most quit before they could even know if trading profitable is possible.
So yes small lots or reasonable lots with reasonable SL will keep you float and allow you to trade your sample size so you can harvest your EDGE.

Next time you are so close to your TP then take the profit!! There is no reason that you not collecting 95% of your TP then settle for 1% TP gain. Markets are always in flux what you think should happen often does not materialize as you wish. This is the main reason that you must watch Price action.
I have taken lots of profits before my set TP. I rather get 65-95% of my TP goal then nothing. Remember its about math by end of the month all those pips add up

What is interesting about the UC spike south basically 85pips drop that it took care all weak Bulls cleared all stops. This is why when you trend trading you must have wider SL becouse just because you are on "right" side is no guarantee you make profit. Game is rigged against retail traders hence why I advocate small lots and wider SL's

My roll here is to help you and others. There are guys here without exaggeration spent 5-15k on tutoring and seminars and still lost money in trading and PM's I get they get lot more from this thread free then their paid programs.
I am saying this without ego. Going back to trading.
Trade small and increase your SL. MY SL is 100-300pips depending on pairs I trade. Looking at previous supports on EA you should of factored on wider SL. Getting stopped out on correct direction is not fun. Decrease position increase SL. Practice reading PA correctly. Try not to get in early on trades. Focus on 61-100 S/R and you will find minimum 5 set ups a week that can easily generate 2-3% gain and repeat that 4 weeks you will achieve over 10% gain. Hard part is developing patience. Wait for good set ups.

Did you get hit on that EA swing? That was unreal 700pips up down
Hope you recover my friend. Like I always say trade small and keep reserve army for special missions.

large position on EA
If this breaks out major like last time 1.45 can be reached in hours.
these fkers are almost too predictable. Push low take out stops then go opposite


If EA stays above Daily open it will be great but we'll see how it unfolds

Some thoughts related to Pivots (Part #3):

got 6 buy limits on EA for spikes
we could see this jump 500pips north lots of compressed energy on E crosses


Thanks for sharing your strategy. i have entered NZDJPY using 1hr timeframe. i don't know how to fix SL, TP or when to exit.
focus is on swings which could be as small as 50pips or large as 300pips. Usually I target next pivot TP and wait to see how PA behaves. Example of my recent swing trade on EA I got out at 1.4205 becouse price was not going further up. Decision was correct since then price is at 4170 now but did drop to 4150.
Every pair and Every instance is unique. No proper system has rules like after XX take TP because PA varies all the time. Sometimes you take 20pips sometimes 150!
SL is up to you. I treat SL before I even place trades. Mine are $$ based not pips.
cheers and trade something else. This is not as easy as it appears. I had guys here thanking me like I was God's sent gift sending me PM"s etc how much money they made using my system then 1 month later don't hear from them at all.
So I don't expect you or 99% posters to be doing this in 3 months even though I insisted people to give this 3 months try.
I no longer insist on things because success is up to you.

Here is my EA chart
Obvious that we are in great place in terms of probability Edge. Look at the previous swings. Would I panic if it drops another 50-75pips south? No. I know this baby will be heading north soon. Could test 38R again and that's 200+pips from here
-150pips is literally nothing to me. I have no stress or worry about this batch of trades. Why? because has not even scratched my budget for this trade. That's how ideally you should trade. Have enough budget lots vs account and risk % that you can relax and allow the trade to develop


Its important for you to see PRICE in relation to pivots. When you add a variable like MA's it distorts the reality. Now your mind can't decide on a trade because somehow you placed more importance on MA then a pivot. On my thread there is always a reason why I try to keep this thread focused.

We are trading emotions, swings are waves made up of other people's perception of price. There is exhilaration and exhaustion on this emotions (swings) and pivots helps us locate those 2 opposite points of the swing. MA's are to some degree just mathematical history Independent of emotions. In comparison to pivots they are not leading indicator but lagging and not my preferred way to trade.

Heads up guys UC hit 120ADR today and great pivot zone maybe good for 50-75 pip retrace by the end of day. Its just good probability set up.
Noticing some Resistance on EU at 78S

the power of pivots
Exact 100R to T .This system is basically idiot prove money making machine all you have to do is wait for set up.
No its not "repainting" indicator pivot was there from Monday and it will be there until Friday. You need to take this seriously like a business and like business only strike when iron is hot.
Otherwise you will be hurting your muscles and won't dent the steal. Focus 61-100 zone only.
.
There was easy 3 pairs last night that hit 100 and 78
AN 100/ AC 100/ AJ 78
Now had you taken all these 3 trades you would of had 3 winners hands down.

EA hit 61S and bounced nicely 165pip bounce!!!

Some thoughts related to Pivots (Part #3):

Just an observation. I know Arjun has his unique way of looking at set ups nothing wrong there but I want everyone to understand that focus is on weekly pivots.
Why is this important? Well just click on red news events in one month and you have possible serious volatility going in directions contrary to previous month. What I am saying is in Forex lot happens in 1 month. You can have AU example start strong in beginning of the month then after series of red data tank hundreds of pips by the end of month despite the fact that previous month was bullish. You guys follow me? Its not about what has transpired but what is likely to transpire in the future. Stay focused on my method trust me you will rip pips. We are not investers here but traders. We go where market goes and that requires flexibility to mold to continuous changing environment that forex is.

Do me favor stop looking at Monthly pivot. Weekly volatility is more then sufficient to rip pips. So many set ups that I can't even keep up. This thread is about weekly pivot.
Got to hummer this point hard. Since I started trading this method I have not once looked at monthly pivot. Its useless to me.
You must restrain yourself and only enter best set ups between 61-100. Simple as that. You will have at least 10 set ups a week which should give you 70% winners
and with multiple entries that could mean 2-10% gain of equity each week. Trust me its easier then you think. What's hard is waiting for set ups. Well lions tigers learn very early age that chasing prey early only depletes their energy without catching anything then they get wise and wait and crawl closer to prey then strike. Nature is universal. We are hunting price.

when I went longs on EU PA showed bullish candles and at one point was in profit on all my positions but after 6hrs things are not looking so great.
I trade small and my SL range 100-300 pips depending on pair and position size hence price dropping -50pips does not bother me. Most times its stop hunting taking out weak longs before real move begins. This is dog eat dog environment and I adapting my trading style to overcome whatever market makers throw at me. I reduced my lots and my leverage and I enter at key turning points.
My EU was at 78S which is great level and even better at 100S. You are not going to hit every trade but have to look at your gains like a business 3 months Q/Q periods otherwise you will be an emotional ping pong going up and down every day. That's not good. Anyway reason again I went long 78S and to me that's a great level. Will it work? Don't know.
As Mark Douglas says "I don't need to know the future to make money" I gambled sports 5yrs and trading 5yrs so I have about 10yrs of experience. Been extreme low emotionally and extreme high but now I don't get too emotional either way. I am like Buddha now "let the price do its thing" You must keep level head calm no panics. Develop confidence, positive thinking and objective analyses. Market is not scary once you figure out how to beat it.

UC shorts over 7positions
hit 100S
Please don't ask me why. If you ask me that I will have to make you read the 1st page and watch Mark Douglas all over again.
Its simple probability EDGE over series of trades- large sample size. That's my system in nutshell

USD pairs are difficult to trade now. To extreme and uncertainty prevails the market. How much of hike is priced in? Hard to say..

Great opportunities on AN longs. Fundamentally New Zealand is getting hit with too much rain making dairy output challenging and this will effect NZD.
As you notice market makers are buying the dips. Notice 61S bounce and another at S38


put a sl on profits so that would not happen and move the line as profits increase

EA has been in range. see box I drew. This is pure high probability trade. Build positions and let it be.
What I mean is allow time for trade to develop. Should it go lower buy some more remember we don't go in all at once. Total positions constitute as 1 unit 1 trade despite of it having multiple positions.
Think of net fishing vs spear. WE throw a wider net since we are dealing with a moving target. Once captured we maximize the gains by allowing max pips of the swing to develop.


AN still ranging in tight range but holding BO to upside.PA making higher Low
This spot is all about this system. Bounce from 100S and great spot for correction. Basically ideal situation how I trade. If you can't take this trade or similar you should not trade this system or even be here.
You are not going to hit every trade but trades like this are basically 80% profitable seriously I can't share more.

Some thoughts related to Pivots (Part #3):

Best way to understand take profit is where you placed your trade.
AN case weekly pivot 1st target 441 if goes through then 38R wait watch PA if breaks higher then 61R and same watch PA but 61R would be more then decent pips should it get there.
By saying I want TP at 78R does not mean price will get there. Let’s put it this way market dictates to you and not other way around!

AJ
too many nice set ups

Its important to realize that I trade 15-H1 charts but always have bigger picture in mind. For Example I do anticipate AN breaking up 4480 and heading to 7000 when exactly hard to pin point. Could be this month and could take 3 months or 1 week. People who draw lines and firmly say I will take TP when price gets to XX number are somehow out of touch how market works. Market goes in multiple waves before reaching certain level hence plenty of opportunities to get in and get out and still maintain overall trajectory.


are you waiting to short AN?
No waiting to long.
I prefer long side where overall bigger trend will be heading. I make conscious decisions what direction I like to trade on each pair. Once that is established then rest is entering at key levels.

Still waiting for AN to get closer to WP to start building longs. This is my next big trade in the making. Love this pair. I actually never lost a trade on this pair

Some thoughts related to Fundamentals (Part #3):

My hunch is that Feds or Yellen won't rock the boat on election month ahead. If she drop the hike word and markets go extreme dumping usually happens with stocks when dollar gets too strong Democrats risk losing the election still 1 more debate coming up. Yellen is a flying liberal
I think she will be very vague as usual.

http://www.bloomberg.com/live
feds minutes discussion
divided Fed on rate hike. Might be sharp move on USD but should get corrected soon.

I get the feeling any day we are going to get a news like UK is delaying Brexit or reconsidering all together.
Should this happen 1k pips fall is likely on EG but without the scenario above it would be slow study drop maybe back to 87
I have not closed my shorts but did not add any new trades on this pair. I basically mentally took the loss here and kept telling myself maybe another 100pips south would be better place to take the loss. I don't know how PA is gonna go but knowing about Elliot Wave theory we only got 2 correction waves so far and 3rd is still in play.


Will make that assessment next week.

Everything was fine and going as planned and Chinese CPI results really screwed everything. Not that you can trust whatever Chinese display but nevertheless Aussie became very powerful and opposite Euro became like a weak whimpering poppy .
Yes have red positions that I will make assessment next week. I am up for the month so far but may have to give 1/2 back by cutting red loose ends.
I trade with the market and at times does not work out. If you do copy my trades or follow me consider that I take same risk as you do.
Yes any system goes through rough patches and this is the one for me. Still chance for Euro to bounce from extreme drop and same with EA. We'll see next week.

This week is exceptional fundemetal heavy week and I suggest guys wait for the events results then make your trades or scalp if you must trade on smaller TF.
Can we see AU at 75? by Tues YES or could shoot up to 7670 61R however we can't predict what Lowe has for us on Monday.

My instinct tells me that RBA prefers cheaper weaker AUD and its unlikely for them to be hawkish unless they are ready to cut rates again.
Not so distant past they announced their ideal rate under today's economic conditions to be at 67-68 so its already way over appreciated mostly by carry over funds..
I am short on AUD through Yen and Cad but not USD

Agree 61R can be tested at 1.3316 could even go higher to 78R
Poloz like Draghi played lame Duck. This makes Feds job even more difficult because you don't want to have super strong greenbacks and hurt your chances in the markets.
The game is Cheap currency now. Who can lower the most...Japan already is king but Euro is not far behind in terms of interest and now Carney wants to join the party...
funny how globally everyone is in "recovery mode" or on the brink of serious rescission like Euro zone total collapse and will have domino effect globally.
Some analysts give it 5 more years until ECB debunks

Some thoughts related to Fundamentals (Part #3):

Lets start not from chart. What I want you to do every week is looking at the calendar and get a feel what may transpire.
So without going too much ahead we got serious data coming out on Monday on Yen ,Aussie and China these will move the market. If Data comes out weak or red on China and similar on AUD expect serious drop of all AUD pairs specially EA which will rocket up easily 100pips.So my mindset its not what happened last week on EA but what's the likelihood EA will continue up and its pretty good EA may continue ascending on new trend contingent how Monday data comes out..


this month is very serious in terms of data and we will get spikes and I recommend trade light until its clear where PA is heading. Don't get caught in front of train.
Tues
If GTA price comes out red this will move NZD south cross the board and specially NC which is way appreciated without much fundamentals behind.

So what I want you guys to train your mind is to think how market makers think. You heard the term "its priced in" well what that says is that market already assumed earlier certain outcome
and positions itself to profit from. You noticed AU dropped significantly after CPI q/q and that was not accidental. I anticipate continued weakness on AUD and NZD


AU may bounce to 7640 then tank south
Remember market anticipates FEds hike in Dec. Does not matter if that happens or not but market assumes it will and with that as background I don't see AU going up significantly in general until Feds decision.


Its not rumblings. I just want you to start thinking more broadly about the markets. We have lots of guys here at FF who don't give a fuck about fundamentals and news and say things like "everything is in the chart" well I strongly disagree not everything is in the charts.
Pro traders will never never dismiss fundametal aspect of trading. That's just counterproductive.

I want you to notice something that happens everyday
Market makers push/drop certain pairs and leave others alone. Today it was not Euro turn but over bloated AUD pairs
Once this is exhausted focus shift to pick another pair. This is very noticeable when you keenly observe the market

Some thoughts related to Fundamentals (Part #3):

just heads up that EU is not going up. In order EA to go north EU must do the same.
With Trump as president it may have effected fundamentals on all pairs. Euro is not attracting funds thus far


UJ is close to critical zone R78 may push to 100R
I anticipate 400-500pip correction could come soon
Since 1910 2terms president followed by recession 100%.I anticipate 1-2quarters to be negative growth for US economy and could deflate overblown US stocks that accumulated on cheap Feds money. Should Feds increase in Dec that would be the last for good deal of time. Market is trying to squeeze as much on USD as possible now before Feds date.
Don't be surprised pyramid to collapse. I voted for Trump however there are things that are cyclical and not much a president can do.

https://www.bloomberg.com/live
Like watching this
if Feds don't change the rates helllooooo USD Bears
UJ is like a juicy steak for hungry lions. If they raise 116.50 is possible as knee jerk reaction then south she will go

I build positions incrementally and folks who trade my system do as well. Base of it trade small. Eliminates that fear however it puts the edge on your side since you and I don't know the future.
Think of net fishing VS spear fishing. I cast a wide net. In basic trading buy low sell high always plays no matter what the charts say. Does it work always? No however given large sample size it does work more often then not.
Was EA low? Yes to me up 232 pips now. Did I know the future? No just historical strong S zone. Basically to me trading is probability game. Repeat enough times that your edge shows profit.

I see lots of new faces which is fine. People come and go and what's important is how committed are you to this? If you are not willing to invest 3 months on this system you won't see real results. You must have large sample size.

Was thinking about my past history of gambling and my trading now. After 5 yrs of gambling I walked away cold turkey. Still remember giving my bookie roll of thick bills and feeling ashamed about the whole thing...Just like that I changed my life.
Now why I share this openly because there is a difference in Trading. You HAVE risk control. Don't let 100 become 1000 loss. Treat this as a whole. Treat it just like business and as business there is always cost of doing business. If you can't address the risk controls you can't win in trading. I am saying this because in gambling once you are in you either lose 100% or gain 100% but in trading you got options and that's why its a real profession.

Going back to Trading
AU at key zone


Its important to have clear idea that you only need 4-5 great positions a month to hit 10% +
That's why I just wait and pick the best set ups like my recent one EA. If its in weak zone pass up. Great thing about forex is there is always a great one near by.

Got to go now. Wish you the best. Remember guys KEY zones 61-100 focus there!

Aussie is being pushed up cross the board last 2days and despite of poor retail sales.....This is basically MM hitting the stops
I am building new longs on EA now

Some thoughts related to Trading psychology (Part #3):

Please watch Mark Douglas videos and he covers that clearly.
I think you are thinking probabilities in traditional sense "if A occurs then X% chance that B occurs etc."
In trading its little different. Please watch the videos cheers.

from good friend Patrick thank you

Trading in the Zone - Master the Market with Confidence, Discipline and a Winning Attitude, by Mark Douglas

Douglas uncovers the underlying reasons for lack of consistency and helps traders overcome the ingrained mental habits that cost them money. He takes on the myths of the market and exposes them one by one teaching traders to look beyond random outcomes, to understand the true realities of risk, and to be comfortable with the "probabilities" of market movement that governs all market speculation.

Trading in the Zone live workshop (4 videos)

Just a little correction my lots are small. Its easy to see on my charts nothing to hide.
I think lot size importance is relative to account. size. One should not risk more then 5% of account..If one keeps things under control rest is matter of execution and study growth is possible demonstrated by me, Mike, Mraam, Arjun etc. There is misconception that trading can't be profitable. Well it can be and can be very profitable. Goal is to eliminate common mistakes of over-trading, revenge trading, not being patient for set ups, not taking a loss when its clearly should be etc. In short these are areas where most retail traders fail because most don't address importance of psychology of trading.

Further let me add that trading is mostly about paying attention. Attention to news, fundamentals, price action, sentiment of the market etc.
Usually takes about 2yrs for a trader to get this down the simple aspect of paying attention.

My system is very logical however there are lots of things that you can fk it up. Not being patient, trading too big, holding on losers even when you know you should get out. Being afraid to execute orders because you had few losses ,not following system rules etc.
You can have the edge clearly define but rest is up to you. One of the reasons why I prefer minimum 2yrs trading experience because of psychology of trading takes time. You may know it but not able to execute.

One of the key aspects of why 95% of retail traders lose in the business is being underfunded.
One way to increase your funds is by decreasing lot size.
If you have 1k account you should trade .03 .02 .01 lot sizes and not exceed total $1 dollar a pip.
You should trade lowest possible leverage

now your lot size matches with your account and you can trade stress free. That's the key trade with relaxed state of mind almost like mediation.
As your account increases your lot size should incrementally increase hence always keeping it under control.
This is critically important. Nothing worse then being forced to take a loss at 100 pivot then price reverses to your direction without you and only reason you got out because pain was too much and why pain in the 1st place? Position was too big so your trade management WAS TO BLAME NOT THE SYSTEM.
Just a reminder guys thank you

Here is a tip. Always have healthy respect for the market specially when the going gets easy and that's when you are most vulnerable to make mistakes like increasing lot size or premature entries. Stay focused and nail those trades same way as you are doing. By end of the month all those pips will increase equity curve %
Remember always market is king and keep reminding that to yourself. Reason this is important because in the past I had serious winning streak and got too confident and end up giving all winnings back plus more. Sounds familiar? Yes just about every trader has been in that situation. So I always stay now on course you reign in your urges and focus and focus.

Some thoughts related to Trading psychology (Part #3):

very true and that's why its a probability over series of trades. "There are always reasons for not putting the trade in and the one you don't place is the winner" Paraphrasing Mark Douglas.
My system generates signals and I follow that signal. Out of 20 trades I should hit 70% winners but that 30% losers I have no way of knowing which ones are those in advance hence
Trading is acting upon on system Edge over series of trades to show profit. No different what casino does. Casino has about 3% edge. That's enough to generate millions of profit.
Think of it this way if anyone knew 100% that EU will go to 111 in 1 week you would of taken 2nd mortgage and put on this trade. Well reality is we don't know the future but that does not stop us from making logical decisions.

This is a myth. Retail traders actually lot more accurate then institutional traders. The reason they fail is being underfunded. Bank can hold a position even if they are -300pips because they aim quarterly targets but average retail trader can't hold that much DD.
There is no real correlation % of retail positions and price movement. Retail traders are roughly 6% of the liquidity hence insignificant in terms of powers that move price.
Let me state that if you fade any retail trader position above 60% over a year chances are you will be broke.

I have designed my system to maximize gains by trading like banks do. I have lowered my leverage and lot size to allow greater SL and room to build positions. This is outside of box trading.
Most systems here at FF trade typically with SL of 20-50pips.In most cases these get hit even if you got the direction correct. Got to think outside of the box!

Just to be clear guys
This method is not about 1 trade or 20 its Edge over series of trades. Think in quarters 3 month period. You may have taken a loss here and there like I have but keep going and the Edge will show its value.
Right now USD is bulldozering everything on its path but when there is carnage there is opportunity. You must keep your loses small. I have no control how you manage your account. Only you can do that. I trade small and I can take good chunk of DD but that's part of how I trade. My Stop loss is predefined by dollar amount and once reach I do take the loss so this nonsense I don't use SL is just that nonsense. People post shit without participation or reading the thread surely get the wrong impression. Responsibility of managing your trades is up to you.
As Mark Douglas said anything can happen but one can make money without knowing the future. That's ironic but that's the truth. Its pure probability Edge over serious of trades.
Right now lot of guys are probability getting beat up on USD but that's temporary as everything in forex. EG went ballistic and within few months came down tremendously and that despite of Brexit fears which everyone was bubbling about.
Same thing now EU to parity sky is falling shit should be ignored. Stay calm composed and watch PA
If USD gets too strong its probable and reasonable that Feds may not raise the rate. Its not just about US economy but world economy specially countries that have debt in USD like Brazil. Risks are great that too strong USD can crash world economies including US.
Soaraway dollar poses risk to 2017 global economy, financial stability

Its important to start switching your mind how you see trading in general. Typically a retail traders wins and dies by few trades. He goes all in hoping a homerun or get busted.
My approach is total opposite. Its about lots and lots of mini victories (just see how many GS posts here) hence you must try this at least 3 months to see results.
Quarterly approach is healthy. It takes the pressure off that you must show profit every day or week. Does not have to be like that. Control your risk set boundaries what your SL should be then stick with it. Example you decide to buy NU at 7150 set SL 70 or better 6980 then leave it alone. Let the trade do its thing. Your positions should not be large that it becomes detrimental to your account should it not work out. Keep positions small. Allow your brain to relax. Trading should be stress free.
Watch all Mark Douglass videos on trading specially on probability.

Trading. Its a challenging activity because we are dealing with X factors.
My style is dealing with unknowns that's why I trade small with multiple entries at key zones and have no issues taking losses. At times you must take the loss to preserve your account's health. Takes time to become good at this hence trade small and build confidence
green pips and happy holidays
below is my equity curve this month. Notice the yellow drops. Those are my major losses but also noticed how well I recovered and finishing the month. You must have faith and determination to believe what you are doing.

Some thoughts related to Pivots (Part #3):

Worth refreshing how I trade.

1. Trade small least leverage
2. Focus key zones 61-100
3. Getting in incrementally never at once.
4. Understanding that trading is pure probability over series of trades.
5. Always have longer view in mind. Trades at times takes time to develop! Patience is critical.

If you can't understand nor implement these values I suggest not even trying what I do.

As you can see hitting pips is not difficult. Difficulty is waiting for right time. Keep remember that key zones are 61-100
In truth I will continue to trade how I trade but its important to me that you guys develop longer term edge developing and sampling.
Its the only way to really test out a system. You might get lucky few times but struggle to close a loser and everything that comes with that. Trading to me is an art form. Its probability over series of trades.
I might be the only trader here keeps bringing up probability factor, here at FF. Its the real soul behind how I trade. Someone asked me few weeks ego why I didn't think EA was worth shorting. Well based on probability factors it did not have an edge. That's it keep focusing on the edge. Sample size matters. Think like a casino. They have roughly 3% edge and that's enough to generate millions. I think my system has better edge lot more then 3%
Keep honing your skills

You must always have plenty of reserve troops when trading meaning never expose your account to the level that you get panicky and nervous.
Drawdown is part of trading and at times trades do go into DD but managing DD is very important. There must be cut out point and that you decide how much is enough.
Example last night EA dropped hard to 100S taking out all stops then turning North. This happens lot of times and honestly I went to sleep without even thinking and this morning all my orders are in profit. There is element of time involve with trades some short and some longer.

My positions are open because I keep my lots small. You must have a cut out point. You can always reduce by 25% wait and see or get out totally. Based on my system price is at 78S and should bounce north.
You should never fear the market! When you are afraid means your positions are too big vs account.

closed EU loss -1550 pips
still up for the month in decent numbers

Oct closed trades
GU +81 pips GU +175pips
AU +340pips +171pips AU+195 pips
UC+109 pips +1114 UC +303pips
E/CHF+63pips
AJ +138 AJ +511pips
all above trades were posted.Do have reasonable amount of DD but confident will chip those away slowly.

3200 pips gain-losses
net+1500 pips
Overall could of been lot worse with Brexit spike.I am feeling positive and motivated. I had months in 20% 30% and last month 47% gain and even if I hit below 10% for Oct I am still doing good.Lets stay focused and hunt pips

Now you may ask Davit you are cherry picking trades that worked how about the ones didn't work
Fair question and my answer is it’s a probability over series of trades and you'll hit 70% winners. Take 50 trades on 61-100 then after 50 trades look at your results. It goes without saying that you cut losers short. Do it and come back after 50trades and prove me wrong.

This is from a book:
BIRD WATCHING IN LION COUNTRY
FOREX TRADING EXPLAINED
2010 EDITION (Revised, Updated & Expanded)
Dirk du Toit

I find trading a fascinating endeavor. In trading when things get tough they get really tough, but when the trades go your way it all seems so easy that one wonders how it was ever any other way. I call this the “unbearable lightness of trading”. The more experience you have the longer the period of lightness. It’s what professional athletes refer to as “being in the zone”, what was formerly difficult now appears effortless, trading seem to take care of itself and the profits accumulate.
You must love what you do. In the context of currency trading this means you must be particularly interested in what’s happening globally. Global politics, environmental issues, developments in technology, all should give you a kick. If you avoid news, or developments shaping the world, you are probably barking up the wrong tree trading this market. It takes work and dedication to get to this point. Deciding to become a currency trader is deciding to embark on a long journey full of challenges, adventures, ups and downs. It’s as much a voyage of discovery as a fascinating way of making money. You will, sooner or later in your trading career, run the full gamut of emotions, and once you taste success you will wear the look all winning trader have: wry, wary, resourceful, and pretty damn happy.

Calendar for next week.


Mon
CAD - BOC Business Outlook Survey
This report is highly respected given its source and timing in relation to interest rate decisions. It can also have predictive qualities regarding future economic conditions because the surveyed firms are selected in accordance with their composition of the nation's GDP.
It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment.

Tue
AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
It's a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.

Monday 16:30 CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey
Tuesday 3:30 AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

I'm aware of those news. But a lot of work before me...

AUDJPY short...

now it's ok...