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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #40,401
  • Apr 11, 2019 2:23am Apr 11, 2019 2:23am
Quoting Timr89
{quote} very nice! For some reason my stats are different: AJ - 8.5 EJ + 6 EG - 11 I just have the breakout to one side on. Might I ask, did you get this stats because of a break out of both sides? On a different matter, I noticed that the EA has a MA filter. I started doing visual backtest with the 50 MA (only long over or short under etc) It seems that the lossing trades today would not be taken if this filter would be on. I will test that further.
No - only one way. Might be down to spreads or times. Have EG set to 00.00 - 04.00

Never used the MA filter.
  • #40,402
  • Apr 11, 2019 2:27am Apr 11, 2019 2:27am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} ''Interesting'' is one word for it, lol. The two outsiders have the (potential) talent to pinch the second place though. I'm assuming that will be your play.
No can't get an e/w on it. See what the prices are at lunch time and might bet on them all - get the numbers right and you can't lose too much - just need one of the outsiders to come in. Hendrix - I would have had to hire a jockey named Jimmy !
  • #40,403
  • Apr 11, 2019 2:31am Apr 11, 2019 2:31am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} No - only one way. Might be down to spreads or times. Have EG set to 00.00 - 04.00 Never used the MA filter.
I've used MA filters on other box breakout methods, usually 20, 30, 50 and/or 200. You'll get runs when you'll think, ''Hey...this could be the way to go'' but it's just a statistical bunching, as over the longer time scale, it doesn't give any advantage - they keep you out of as many winning trades as losers.

The only combination that shows any statistical robustness is on the higher time frames, the Daily and up, when a 200 can be useful over the long run.
  • #40,404
  • Apr 11, 2019 2:32am Apr 11, 2019 2:32am
Simple plan for the day. If it breaks that line sell to yesterday's low. If it bounces off the line buy to yesterday's high.

Need to put some orders in but too early yet see what close of the hour brings. Daily range at 32.9% of 20 day gives plenty scope for a move.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #40,405
  • Apr 11, 2019 2:33am Apr 11, 2019 2:33am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} No can't get an e/w on it. See what the prices are at lunch time and might bet on them all - get the numbers right and you can't lose too much - just need one of the outsiders to come in. Hendrix - I would have had to hire a jockey named Jimmy !
Just do an unbalanced W + Pl on Betfair.
  • #40,406
  • Apr 11, 2019 2:35am Apr 11, 2019 2:35am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Just do an unbalanced W + Pl on Betfair.
In fact, at the moment, you are pretty close to being able to green up on the place market alone (and if you are willing to trade, you definitely could through the day - certainly the race itself).
  • #40,407
  • Apr 11, 2019 2:35am Apr 11, 2019 2:35am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} I've used MA filters on other box breakout methods, usually 20, 30, 50 and/or 200. You'll get runs when you'll think, ''Hey...this could be the way to go'' but it's just a statistical bunching, as over the longer time scale, it doesn't give any advantage - they keep you out of as many winning trades as losers. The only combination that shows any statistical robustness is on the higher time frames, the Daily and up, when a 200 can be useful over the long run.
Not an MA fan at all but be interesting to see what results Tim gets.
  • #40,408
  • Apr 11, 2019 2:39am Apr 11, 2019 2:39am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} In fact, at the moment, you are pretty close to being able to green up on the place market alone (and if you are willing to trade, you definitely could through the day - certainly the race itself).
In fact...lol, I just-about greened up on the Win market. If the fav drifts even a tenth of a point, I can cover it completely.

Thanks for the heads-up
  • #40,409
  • Apr 11, 2019 2:39am Apr 11, 2019 2:39am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} In fact, at the moment, you are pretty close to being able to green up on the place market alone (and if you are willing to trade, you definitely could through the day - certainly the race itself).
Good idea well worth a look.

Did you ever see the movie about betting 'in-play' - can't remember the name but was brilliant. I go google and find it !
  • #40,410
  • Apr 11, 2019 2:41am Apr 11, 2019 2:41am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Good idea well worth a look. Did you ever see the movie about betting 'in-play' - can't remember the name but was brilliant. I go google and find it !
Nope, never heard of that. Let me know if you find it!
  • #40,411
  • Apr 11, 2019 2:54am Apr 11, 2019 2:54am
The Billy Bar (GU 08:00-08:15) gave an easy +5 and more as a Wick Zone play out of the Supply Zone.

For those watching - this is not how Billy runs his trade, this is my variation. Just fyi.

GU 08:00 - 08:15 Billy Bar Done WZ Short back into the body. +5 and more as jam on top.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM15asBillyBarDoneWZoutofSupplyZone11thapril19.png Size: 59 KB


Note: Ignore the time-tags on the indi, they are my broker's offset.
  • #40,412
  • Apr 11, 2019 2:57am Apr 11, 2019 2:57am
@ Billy. I have the range of the 08:00 - 08:15 bar as 27, I think, give or take. Is that normally too big for the way you run it? Is 20 the usual limit?
  • #40,413
  • Apr 11, 2019 3:00am Apr 11, 2019 3:00am
Clues for the day may just be in the 4h.
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  • #40,414
  • Apr 11, 2019 3:16am Apr 11, 2019 3:16am
Playin' the Billy Bar Zone.

Short for a second time, WZ entry.

GU Billy Bar Zone

In

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Out +6.2

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #40,415
  • Apr 11, 2019 3:18am Apr 11, 2019 3:18am
Not too shabby a morning.

Got to be off out now and probably going to be busy away from the screens for most of the day, so I will say bye for now.

Trade well all who stick around.
  • #40,416
  • Apr 11, 2019 3:23am Apr 11, 2019 3:23am
Quoting claudia1
Simple plan for the day. If it breaks that line sell to yesterday's low. If it bounces off the line buy to yesterday's high. Need to put some orders in but too early yet see what close of the hour brings. Daily range at 32.9% of 20 day gives plenty scope for a move. {image}
Broke the line - still not convinced.
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  • #40,417
  • Apr 11, 2019 3:36am Apr 11, 2019 3:36am
Lem - one more for the day. 19.00 Newcastle I'm looking at the favourite but covering with an outsider at 8/1 (like the name you'll get it).
  • #40,418
  • Apr 11, 2019 3:53am Apr 11, 2019 3:53am
Mr H, I replied to your ping, but I am typing blind as I seem to have a fault . So if it comes out weird I apologise.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #40,419
  • Apr 11, 2019 3:53am Apr 11, 2019 3:53am
I am breaking my head on why the set of Claudia did better than me.
For the last hours I can not figure it out.
I guess you just got lucky?

Box broke lower part of the box for 1.5 pips and then reversed
https://www.tradingview.com/x/LqsCGvT1/
  • #40,420
  • Apr 11, 2019 3:56am Apr 11, 2019 3:56am
T 09-55
Cable 00-00 4 hour range break.
It is being very difficult lol, I have 2 counters running. And will now look for more confirmation to see direction.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
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