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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #2,741
  • Apr 4, 2019 6:57pm Apr 4, 2019 6:57pm
Quoting Nala66
{quote} I bet you are glad to be able to scrub off these lines now.
Definitely looks better now.

Sorry about the Crows but just like Dockers fans you must be a sucker for punishment .
  • #2,742
  • Edited 7:21pm Apr 4, 2019 7:06pm | Edited 7:21pm
Quoting Nala66
Putting the ABCD's aside, this one hour chart is an absolute classic textbook example of price movement. 1) Finds bear div 2) Stops and turns average causing failed HH swing 3) Fails on one side so test the opposite. 4) Price test swing low average. 5) Bears find support. 6) The bulls have a div but can't break the bull support. 7) So now we should see a price LL What did I do about it? Watched the Crows get hammered again. Note how I was the wrong way in the loading knot but still managed to scalp a few {image}
Hi Alan, i was confuse to see bear divergence yesterday. Because i use tail candle, not use body candle to see divergence. Is it better use body or tail candle to look for divergence? Thank you.
  • #2,743
  • Apr 4, 2019 9:04pm Apr 4, 2019 9:04pm
Quoting quangvision
My first trade for today, taken from H1 inference when price touch MA. {image}
Got hit as you can see. Hihi
Very beautiful and satisfied ><
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  • #2,744
  • Apr 4, 2019 9:25pm Apr 4, 2019 9:25pm
Quoting Gilaforex13
{quote} Hi Alan, i was confuse to see bear divergence yesterday. Because i use tail candle, not use body candle to see divergence. Is it better use body or tail candle to look for divergence? Thank you.
I would say to you think about what you are saying.

Does the RSI or any other indicator close at the top of the bar (Your tall Candle) or do they close at the same time the bar closes.

Obviously the latter is the case so it is the body that is important when making the comparisons.

Now having said that we can look for hidden divergence where the bar does make the HH in real time but the RSI does not. Again in real time this causes the bar to snap back so the divergence is no longer seen... It is hidden.
  • #2,745
  • Apr 4, 2019 9:29pm Apr 4, 2019 9:29pm
Quoting Nala66
{quote} I would say to you think about what you are saying. Does the RSI or any other indicator close at the top of the bar (Your tall Candle) or do they close at the same time the bar closes. Obviously the latter is the case so it is the body that is important when making the comparisons. Now having said that we can look for hidden divergence where the bar does make the HH in real time but the RSI does not. Again in real time this causes the bar to snap back so the divergence is no longer seen... It is hidden.
Thank you Alan
  • #2,746
  • Apr 5, 2019 12:46am Apr 5, 2019 12:46am
Good day all.
Hard to develop a plan.
H4 divergence brought price back to the EMA. Question is if the EMA is going to print an HL.
H1 divergence brought price above the EMA. Will it run into Bull support while printing a new EMA HL?
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #2,747
  • Apr 5, 2019 1:05am Apr 5, 2019 1:05am
Quoting Jazz1964
Good day all. Hard to develop a plan. H4 divergence brought price back to the EMA. Question is if the EMA is going to print an HL. H1 divergence brought price above the EMA. Will it run into Bull support while printing a new EMA HL?
Personally am bearish until bulls look like finding support on HTF's. Initial areas of interest for 5 min entries are AB=CD ZOO point around 3125 and 4H swing MA high at 3129.
  • #2,748
  • Apr 5, 2019 1:17am Apr 5, 2019 1:17am
Quoting davidmaree
{quote} Personally am bearish until bulls look like finding support on HTF's. Initial areas of interest for 5 min entries are AB=CD ZOO point around 3125 and 4H swing MA high at 3129.

your ZOO is also 50% retracement of yesterday's range
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #2,749
  • Apr 5, 2019 1:29am Apr 5, 2019 1:29am
Quoting Jazz1964
{quote} your ZOO is also 50% retracement of yesterday's range
Guess that encompasses the AB leg. Also, forgot to mention the 1H is currently bearish rsi divergent.
  • #2,750
  • Apr 5, 2019 4:20am Apr 5, 2019 4:20am
Missed the morning short divergence, but market (even in NFP day) gave 2nd chance. Took the short after the 2nd rejection of the 5m EMA (also was rejection of 1H EMA)
I don't know whether 5m ABCD was correct. If it was my extra clue was market didn't managed to climb even to D/2 level.

PS ignore the ABC in 1H chart, left it there for future reference.
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  • #2,751
  • Apr 5, 2019 6:25pm Apr 5, 2019 6:25pm
Here you go continuing that 1 hour chart. See how price has acted exactly as it should.

Fails the average HH
Test the average LL
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  • #2,752
  • Apr 5, 2019 6:37pm Apr 5, 2019 6:37pm
So how did that pan out on the 5 min chart
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  • #2,753
  • Apr 6, 2019 1:33am Apr 6, 2019 1:33am
Quoting Nala66
Here you go continuing that 1 hour chart. See how price has acted exactly as it should. Fails the average HH Test the average LL {image}
Hi Alan,
How can you say "fails the average HH" while it not making average LL yet, for example?
So the right way to say "fails average HH" ONLY WHEN you see it made average LL, right?
I took the trade sell on the bar 12:00 H1 with inference is previous bar 11:00 closed below average and bar 12:00 opened right on the average.
  • #2,754
  • Apr 6, 2019 3:14am Apr 6, 2019 3:14am
there was quite a nice reaction to the H1 ABCD 50% and the AB=CD
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Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #2,755
  • Apr 6, 2019 3:24am Apr 6, 2019 3:24am
Quoting quangvision
{quote} Hi Alan, How can you say "fails the average HH" while it not making average LL yet, for example? So the right way to say "fails average HH" ONLY WHEN you see it made average LL, right? I took the trade sell on the bar 12:00 H1 with inference is previous bar 11:00 closed below average and bar 12:00 opened right on the average.
This is unbelievable after all I have said. How on Earth can you get this so wrong!
  • #2,756
  • Apr 6, 2019 3:46am Apr 6, 2019 3:46am
Quoting Jazz1964
there was quite a nice reaction to the H1 ABCD 50% and the AB=CD {image}
Not bad at all Jazz you have now progressed to having all three points on the ABCD wrongly placed.

A) You have not picked the highest high.
B) Does not line up with the RSI pivot, but you have picked the right one on the price.
C) Is wrong on the price and that point can't even be seen on the RSI, a pivot is blocking it.
  • #2,757
  • Apr 6, 2019 3:59am Apr 6, 2019 3:59am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Not bad at all Jazz you have now progressed to having all three points on the ABCD wrongly placed. A) You have not picked the highest high. B) Does not line up with the RSI pivot, but you have picked the right one on the price. C) Is wrong on the price and that point can't even be seen on the RSI, a pivot is blocking it.
Aiii, thank you
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Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #2,758
  • Apr 6, 2019 5:08am Apr 6, 2019 5:08am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} This is unbelievable after all I have said. How on Earth can you get this so wrong!
Hi Alan,
I may not express my idea clear enough.
I attached here my chart to explain what I am thinking clearer hopefully.
Basically my concern is which standards to identify a failed average HH or LL when things are still going on (when price not yet touch opposite site).
What you taught us were price touched swing high/low but average not yet. Then appear div or overbought/oversold on RSI as signal to tell us price may reverse and average may not find its target but would test opposite site so we call "average failed make HH/LL".
From my posted chart, you can see price not yet touch swing high so that it caused me concern.
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  • #2,759
  • Apr 6, 2019 6:45am Apr 6, 2019 6:45am
Hi Folks,
Just a quick thank you to everyone contributing to this thread and to the explanations provided by Alan, the postings are a great resource and really help me get a grip on how to approach these markets.

Thanks Again

Cheers....Des
  • #2,760
  • Edited 4:15pm Apr 7, 2019 7:03am | Edited 4:15pm
For those interested I've attached my crib notes for Alan's method, which essentially is a dump of many of Alan's and some other's posts to date. TOC is as follows:

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This pdf file is 20MB so had to be split to upload here. 7-zip or Winzip should recombine them when files are placed in the same directory, and then extracting the 001 file. Because of another FF upload quirk, before doing this you have to delete the .zip at the end so file names before extraction should be:
Alan method posts.zip.001
Alan method posts.zip.002

Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Alan method posts.zip.001.zip   10.0 MB | 2,435 downloads

Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Alan method posts.zip.002.zip   10.0 MB | 2,514 downloads


For those unable to open the zips here is a dropbox link to the full pdf (https://www.dropbox.com/s/dvvk1ff0ex...posts.pdf?dl=0).


Hope this is helpful.
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