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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #40,081
  • Mar 25, 2019 7:18am Mar 25, 2019 7:18am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} I get that, of course and you are absolutely correct. The key, as you know, is highlighted: '...as the probability of a loss after a winning run increases. ''as actually, it isn't in normal circumstances. However, the way you are using the term, is skewed by the fact that you have the data to show strike-rate at a certain level. That's what I am getting at. With your data added, that isn't actually simply letting probability play out any more, as your data now gives you ...''as the probability of a loss after a winning[/highlight]...
One more thing that hopefully makes it a bit clearer what I am getting at:

No matter what the strike rate of anything is, the likelihood may be greater in the viewer's eyes but the probability is not.

This guy explains it a heck of a lot better than I do:

Inserted Video
  • #40,082
  • Mar 25, 2019 7:20am Mar 25, 2019 7:20am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} One more thing that hopefully makes it a bit clearer what I am getting at: No matter what the strike rate of anything is, the likelihood may be greater in the viewer's eyes but the probability is not. This guy explains it a heck of a lot better than I do: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bQE...A&index=2&t=0s
My brother used to beat me over the head with this stuff on a regular basis - that's why it stuck with me.
  • #40,083
  • Mar 25, 2019 7:23am Mar 25, 2019 7:23am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} My brother used to beat me over the head with this stuff on a regular basis - that's why it stuck with me.
Getting an understanding and acceptance of probability theory is one of the most freeing things a trader can do, as it gives you the fearless ability to flush a bad trade and immediately re-enter another without the dreaded vulture of ''what if'' perching on your shoulder. Believe me, all the t-shirts I bought are still hanging in the closet.
  • #40,084
  • Mar 25, 2019 7:26am Mar 25, 2019 7:26am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} I get that, of course and you are absolutely correct. The key, as you know, is highlighted: '...as the probability of a loss after a winning run increases. ''as actually, it isn't in normal circumstances. However, the way you are using the term, is skewed by the fact that you have the data to show strike-rate at a certain level. That's what I am getting at. With your data added, that isn't actually simply letting probability play out any more, as your data now gives you ...''as the probability of a loss after a winning run increases in combination...
lol ok. I'll shut up too.

Lunch time then have a look at Lingfield then start shorting cable. Good plan.
`
  • #40,085
  • Mar 25, 2019 7:30am Mar 25, 2019 7:30am
Probability theory - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_theory

'Probability theory is the branch of mathematics concerned with probability.'

Well I think a donkey could have figured that out lol !
  • #40,086
  • Edited 9:30am Mar 25, 2019 8:39am | Edited 9:30am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Maybe. But it works when you have a high win rate - has to be over 50% - which the AJ trade has. For me - and I know we have discussed this previously via pm but it bears saying again for those looking in - I would instead look to maximise the winning positions by adding in as the move plays out. As price crosses lines-in-the-sand (tbd) we would add in by opening new trades. My preference would be to do so with increasing lot size but it can be done with trades of equal size. This is in effect how HFT algos trade, we would just be doing...
Hi Lem, this certainly works well when it goes your way, however do you normalize risk when you increase position size? Say the A/J break has a 60% win rate, that is based of a fixed SL and TP, if you do not normalize risk then you could get a breakout trade that takes off, you add on one or more times, then go all the way to SL for a much larger loss (I know you would never let that happen if you were trading manually ). However if you do normalize risk by moving your SL down then the probability of the original trade is no longer 60%(probably). Do you have any thoughts on this?
  • #40,087
  • Mar 25, 2019 9:17am Mar 25, 2019 9:17am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Getting an understanding and acceptance of probability theory is one of the most freeing things a trader can do, as it gives you the fearless ability to flush a bad trade and immediately re-enter another without the dreaded vulture of ''what if'' perching on your shoulder. Believe me, all the t-shirts I bought are still hanging in the closet.
Hi Lem, you write interesting things but I personally would never trade off probability unless backed by hard stats.
That is why I always trade off Frequency Distribution as you know.
we have wins, we have losses, we have FD Stats, We Have Probability.
i know you know, just saying for the others.
Trade well.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #40,088
  • Mar 25, 2019 10:27am Mar 25, 2019 10:27am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Hi Lem, you write interesting things but I personally would never trade off probability unless backed by hard stats. That is why I always trade off Frequency Distribution as you know. we have wins, we have losses, we have FD Stats, We Have Probability. i know you know, just saying for the others. Trade well.
Yep. I don't use it directly either - I just let the knowledge of what it means in day-to-day trading sit there and maybe give me a back massage now and again
  • #40,089
  • Mar 25, 2019 10:34am Mar 25, 2019 10:34am
Quoting 1qaz2wsx33
{quote} Hi Lem, this certainly works well when it goes your way, however do you normalize risk when you increase position size? Say the A/J break has a 60% win rate, that is based of a fixed SL and TP, if you do not normalize risk then you could get a breakout trade that takes off, you add on one or more times, then go all the way to SL for a much larger loss (I know you would never let that happen if you were trading manually ). However if you do normalize risk by moving your SL down then the probability of the original...
I was just spit-balling this. I use it in my trading because I am manually riding my trades, I honestly don't know how or even if you could make it work for you on auto.

Also, if you look at my trade above, you will see that I will close and re-enter more often than not now, rather than letting one initial trade run, so each trade is a standalone entity.

As you use the term ''normalize risk'', I know where you are coming from and he has (had) a vastly tighter grasp on that side of things than I could ever bring to the table. You will also know that moving the sl was never an option in that particular part of the galaxy. Space, really is the final frontier!
  • #40,090
  • Mar 25, 2019 10:36am Mar 25, 2019 10:36am
Quoting claudia1
Probability theory - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_theory 'Probability theory is the branch of mathematics concerned with probability.' Well I think a donkey could have figured that out lol !
Attached Image
  • #40,091
  • Mar 25, 2019 2:40pm Mar 25, 2019 2:40pm
Quoting claudia1
{quote} lol ok. I'll shut up too. Lunch time then have a look at Lingfield then start shorting cable. Good plan. `
How'd you do?

Got Eden Rose in the 3:30 with Jacob Cats as a saver (3rd).

Looks more to come from the winner.
  • #40,092
  • Mar 25, 2019 2:57pm Mar 25, 2019 2:57pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} How'd you do? Got Eden Rose in the 3:30 with Jacob Cats as a saver (3rd). Looks more to come from the winner.
Two losses at afternoon meet. Made up tonight at Wolverhampton with an 8/1 and a 12/1 place. Both Adam K.
  • #40,093
  • Mar 26, 2019 12:16am Mar 26, 2019 12:16am
T 05-14 very early.
Cable 00-00 4 hour break. Low broke for 10. Would of preferred high first. Lol
Oops, caught out. Catch you later.
Trade well all.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #40,094
  • Mar 26, 2019 12:25am Mar 26, 2019 12:25am
T 05-24
Eu short and eg long. Following break of 00-00 4 hour range
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #40,095
  • Mar 26, 2019 12:35am Mar 26, 2019 12:35am
T 05-33
It seems we did not make + 10 on Cable.lol duh!
My mate put put the trade on then was speaking about something else.
Anyway lets see what happens.
He gets peed off because he knows i am typing but i dont tell him about here. FF. Lol shhhh.
Trade well all.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #40,096
  • Mar 26, 2019 2:33am Mar 26, 2019 2:33am
07-39
Cable, 00-00 4 hour range. Low broke for + 10 DEFINATLEY, lol.
e/u low broke, we have a short on, trade still on.
e/g High break Fail, Low broke added a counter, trade still on.
Thats it for now.
Will trade Dax, 07-00. 1 hour range break and A/U 04-00 4 hour range.
Trade well all.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #40,097
  • Mar 26, 2019 2:40am Mar 26, 2019 2:40am
'Morning all.

The DAX looks messy this morning. May be best to either simply play the pre-Open break or just wait till it settles.

Watch this space and trade well all.
  • #40,098
  • Mar 26, 2019 4:00am Mar 26, 2019 4:00am
T08-57
Dax, 07-00 1 hour range , Low broke for +10.
a/u nothing doing. 04-00 4 hour range break.
e/g messing us around,lol. It has now gone back up, have 2 counters running.
e/u still short, almost got the 10. But almost is not good enough.
Trade well.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #40,099
  • Mar 26, 2019 4:19am Mar 26, 2019 4:19am
Quoting lemercenaire
'Morning all. The DAX looks messy this morning. May be best to either simply play the pre-Open break or just wait till it settles. Watch this space and trade well all.
No AJ or EJ range too big. Did take GU still short.

Horsies !! Wolverhampton again. Hayley Turner in the first at 16/1 worth an ew maybe. Only has one ride at the meet.
  • #40,100
  • Mar 26, 2019 4:20am Mar 26, 2019 4:20am
Well, that's that for now.

Got my axe out and hacked away. Berserker mode. Great fun .

DAX T-60 Chart

+2.47 +1.03 +1.01 +3.26 +0.74 +2.02 +0.76 -2.21 +1.24 +5.51 +1 +1 +2.24 +1.72 +3.48 +1.27 +3.24 +1.55 +1.46 +1.75

[+36.75 -2.21 for total of +34.54]

20 trades 19W 1L (Surface wound )

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There was a solid pull back to follow these and then although there was a bit more to come, it was the last gasp of the battle and the action closed out shortly after.

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I love the smell of burning pips in the morning...

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