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Trading Rules for die-hards... 47 replies
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Trading Live Against The Beast--Gbd/Jpy--(Do Or Die)-- 3 replies
die young 8 replies
DislikedJust tried the one hour before Asia open breakout and would've had AJ loss and EJ UJ both wins. Seems like a good chance to make pips from this breaks and definitely tonight so will try again and also the Frankfurt open after I get some sleep lol {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} Good results. 70% win rate with 1.0:1.5 risk/reward was the initial plan on A/J. Next version will incorporate money management. Say you've had 3 wins in a row the odds are you are due a loss. (roulette player coming out here !). The ea will have the option (true/false) to reduce the lot size by x %. In other words reducing risk as we know a loss will happen at some point. In reverse if we have 3 losses in a row the lot size can be increased by x %. All about probability (or is it luck ?).Ignored
Disliked{quote} "Three wins in a row,.the odds are we are due a loss." Are you sure about that? In a breakout play like this which re-sets and triggers off a new set up every day, I'd think that the odds of a win or loss are the same every new day. What you are describing is a variation on the gambler's fallacy. The only way you can break that and quote "odds", is in Billy's style of statistical bias (ie on the m15 GU or 00:00 H4 AU, we "know" the likelihood of getting a retrace etc after a fail because he has done the frequency distribution).Ignored
Disliked{quote} Maybe. But it works when you have a high win rate - has to be over 50% - which the AJ trade has. For me - and I know we have discussed this previously via pm but it bears saying again for those looking in - I would instead look to maximise the winning positions by adding in as the move plays out. As price crosses lines-in-the-sand (tbd) we would add in by opening new trades. My preference would be to do so with increasing lot size but it can be done with trades of equal size. This is in effect how HFT algos trade,[/highlight]...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Maybe. But it works when you have a high win rate - has to be over 50% - which the AJ trade has. For me - and I know we have discussed this previously via pm but it bears saying again for those looking in - I would instead look to maximise the winning positions by adding in as the move plays out. As price crosses lines-in-the-sand (tbd) we would add in by opening new trades. My preference would be to do so with increasing lot size but it can be done with trades of equal size. This is in effect how HFT algos trade, we would just be doing...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Appreciate the input as always. There is a big difference between 'set and forget' and manually trading as you know. The point behind this ea (for me anyway) was/is to take trades over night. Now that has to be made as risk free as possible. Therefore reducing the lot size makes sense as the probability of a loss after a winning run increases. Back to the blacks/reds and odds/evens. Let's see what the hit rate runs in at over 12 months. Still early days.Ignored