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Oben's Journal

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 20, 2019 2:08am Mar 20, 2019 2:08am
Welcome to Oben's Journal.

I am looking to interact with other traders and share some thoughts or trades.
Feel free to talk about anything, but this is a "trading" journal, so let's not get too carried away.


One rule: I would like to keep the thread peaceful and respectful.


About Oben:

  1. I trade full-time.
  2. I am not the best trader.
  3. I am not trying to prove that I am the best trader.
  4. I think trading is very difficult.
  5. I am not perfect and I make mistakes, but I keep moving forward.

  • #2
  • Mar 20, 2019 3:05am Mar 20, 2019 3:05am
All the best with your journal!!

I'm happy to follow along and when time permits, (I'm not a full-time trader, yet) talk about trading.
Empty your mind and let the market guide you
  • #3
  • Mar 20, 2019 11:04am Mar 20, 2019 11:04am
Quoting SunnyCoast
All the best with your journal!! I'm happy to follow along and when time permits, (I'm not a full-time trader, yet) talk about trading.
Thank you Sunny. I love the "yet" at the end. I can feel how determined you are.
  • #4
  • Mar 20, 2019 1:41pm Mar 20, 2019 1:41pm
For those who decide to join my thread, I would like to talk a bit about my trading style and share some trading stats to give a sense of what type of trader I am.
All stats mentioned are only based on trades taken this year so far. I will continue to update the journal with my stats from time to time for reflection purposes. I will also frequently post about my trades live, so no need to worry. This journal will not simply be a "trophy cabinet" of stats.

I am proud of my accomplishments, but I am not here to boast or brag. Please remember post #1. I am not the best trader, nor am I trying to prove that I am. You may not agree with the way I trade, but there is no need for any sort of conflict. Everybody trades differently and trades what works for them. I am simply trading what works for me. If you would like to talk/discuss/debate about any aspect of my trading in a peaceful manner, I am more than happy to.

Just because I have positive stats does not mean trading is easy for me. I still go through psychological challenges and make dumb mistakes. Again, I am not perfect. All I do is try my best though to avoid making those dumb mistakes.

　　　　　

I am a day trader as the majority of my trades close within 24 hours, but I am not a quick scalper. I try to hop onto swings and aim for/risk anywhere between 30-50 pips which would usually take a number of hours to close. I try my best to keep my risk-reward close to 1:1, but my average win is slightly smaller than my average loss. My risk-reward usually ranges between 0.7~1:1. In a few bad cases, maybe even 0.6:1. I make this work even with a slightly inversed risk-reward ratio by having a decent win rate. My win rate this year has been 70% so far. You may think that I should improve my risk-reward, but that comes with a lower win rate (most likely) and having to hold trades longer which I do not prefer doing.

I normally risk 2% per trade and aim for 10-20% a month. I understand that risking 2% per trade is quite risky as 5 consecutive losses can put you in roughly a 10% drawdown. However, as long as I am within a 15% drawdown range, I am not too concerned. A drawdown of over 20% may begin to concern me and if that ever happens, I will need to pause my trading to review and reflect on my trades. My max drawdown this year was 8.87%.

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I understand that a few sentences along with a couple screenshots may not mean much, but please respect some of my privacy. I will be transparent to a certain extent in this journal with live trades and accumulative stats. I am not trying to prove anything here. I simply want to have meaningful encounters with other traders and enjoy interesting conversations by sharing thoughts/trades/ideas etc.

　　　　　

I am sure there are many more aspects of my trading that I can talk about, but I believe this is a good start in understanding what type of trader I am.

If anyone would like to join the conversation, I would like to ask:
What type of trader are you? Have you thought about it before?
  • #5
  • Mar 20, 2019 7:25pm Mar 20, 2019 7:25pm
The humility that comes through in your writing speaks to me that you have already come quite a distance in your journey and have an understanding that there is still a long way to go.

In some of the threads here, humility seems a very rare quality to possess.

I would also like to gain some insight into what kind of trader I think I am so I will post here as part of our conversation on trading as well as add it to my journal.

I understand deeply that I have just taken the first few baby steps on my journey.
I have always been blessed with the ability to quickly pick up the basics of anything I put my body and mind to. This does not mean I've even come close to mastering everything I've started.
I am deeply aware of how passionate I am at wanting to become extremely good at this foreign currency trading.
The way of approaching the markets that I'm starting to learn from George's thread already sits extremely well with me and I'm having considerable early success with trading just one pair and the same setups day in day out for the past 3 weeks.
I'm learning every day and my goal is to keep things as simple as possible on my charts and in my mind, but of course, simple is not synonymous with "easy".

That's it for now. This will be a good conversation I think.

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Empty your mind and let the market guide you
  • #6
  • Mar 21, 2019 12:42pm Mar 21, 2019 12:42pm
Quoting SunnyCoast
The humility that comes through in your writing speaks to me that you have already come quite a distance in your journey and have an understanding that there is still a long way to go. In some of the threads here, humility seems a very rare quality to possess. I would also like to gain some insight into what kind of trader I think I am so I will post here as part of our conversation on trading as well as add it to my journal. I understand deeply that I have just taken the first few baby steps on my journey. I have always been blessed with the ability...
Sunny,

I am glad that you are seeing some light very early on in your journey. I had to go through a lot of learning, studying, and losing money to get to where I am now. It took a long time for me to settle into a certain style of trading. I have seen a lot of traders say this and it is a bit cliche, but "I have tried everything."

One interesting thing to note is that there are actually numerous strategies/styles of trading that work, but not all of them will fit your personality. You are quite lucky to find something that fits you so early on. I let go of a few strategies that clearly worked for others because of this very reason. Some strategies required too many pairs to trade due to being long-term trading, some strategies required too much trade management, and some strategies were scalping etc. I find it ridiculous when someone believes that their trading method is the only proper way to trade. That is most likely the only strategy/style of trading they found that works for them. It is definitely not the only working strategy or trading edge out there.
  • #7
  • Mar 21, 2019 3:44pm Mar 21, 2019 3:44pm
My trading week is over so I will not be posting any live trades this week. Since I reached my monthly goal of 10-20%, I will be trading with lower risk next week. I will actually prefer taking next week off, but we'll see. The reason why I did not post any live trades this week was because all 3 positions closed while I was writing post #4.

　　　　　

Should you have daily, weekly, or monthly return goals?

When I say my trading week is over, what I mean is that my weekly goal has been reached. I have weekly return goals along with my monthly goals. I aim for 5% per week and 20% per month. I am more than content with anywhere between 10-20% a month though. Some traders say that it is not a good idea to have such return goals. This is because you might force trades when there is no opportunity, you might over-trade when you are close to your goal, you might revenge trade when you are in a loss, or you might miss out on good opportunities which would help your equity curve in the long run. These are all valid reasons and I agree that it is not a good idea to have such return goals in most cases. However, somehow it works for me, so I decided to list a few reasons why it may be working for me:

 

  1. I have a trading plan that objectively defines my trading opportunities. I cannot force a trade and convince myself that there is an opportunity when there isn't one because of my objective rules.
  2. Through experience, I know that I have roughly 3-8 opportunities per week. If I am trading more than that, I know something is up. The way I trade gives me opportunities every week, but not every day. This is why I know that I cannot have daily goals, but I can have weekly and monthly goals.
  3. I have been burned by revenge trading several times in the past. This may be the biggest risk of having return goals, but I have been doing quite well managing my emotions. Yes, I am happy when I win trades and frustrated when I lose trades, but I make sure it does not affect my trading. I continuously remind myself of the horrific times that resulted from revenge trading. I know it is better to take the loss and move on.
  4. Having return goals has become a normal routine for my trading. If I reach my weekly goal, I stop trading for the week. If I am in a loss, I start to accept that it will be a losing week around Thursday or Friday. This is because I know there will not be many opportunities at the end of the week, and even if there are, it is more likely I will have to hold positions over the weekend, which I do not like doing. When I reach my monthly goal, I do not stop trading, but I reduce my risk. Sometimes, I will take the rest of the month off, but that depends on how I feel.
  5. I am fine with leaving good opportunities on the table. I am still profitable without those trades and I enjoy my time freedom. When my trading week ends early on Tuesday or Wednesday, this gives me a long relaxing weekend.

　　　　　

What are your thoughts about having daily, weekly, or monthly return goals? Have you tried having them?

  • #8
  • Mar 22, 2019 5:49pm Mar 22, 2019 5:49pm
I would like to talk a little bit about the importance of knowing when to get out of a position.

You often hear traders say, "Trading requires patience." This is true; however, this does not mean that you should hold on to a losing trade until it reverses. You should always know when to get out of a losing trade. I personally think having a hard SL (calculating your risk & knowing exactly how much you are willing to lose) is the easiest risk management method that challenges your psychology the least. If you have a mental stoploss or decide to wait for a clear exit signal (e.g. price action), there is a bigger chance of causing more damage to your account as there is a bigger chance of entering into the "let me wait just a little bit more" phase. Regardless of whether you have a hard stop, mental stop, or equity stop etc., you should always know when to get out of a losing trade.

Knowing when to get out does not only apply to losing positions. If you do not know when to get out of a winning position, you do not know your risk-reward. Traders who do not trade with a TP tend to get anxious when they are in the green. They are afraid the trade will reverse, so they are likely to close trades early, resulting in random or very bad risk-reward trades. In other cases, they might hold the trade for too long thinking it will fly to the moon, only to see the trade come right back to its entry price. Some solutions to this problem is to have a TP set or trail your stops manually/automatically. Waiting for a clear exit signal when you are in the green can also work unlike when you are in a loss, but personally, I like to have a TP set so there is no need to babysit my trades.

There are many ways to manage your risk and trades. It is difficult to say one method is better than the other as it differs depending on your trading strategy and style. You do what works best for you as long as you know when to get out, whether the trade is winning or losing.
  • #9
  • Mar 23, 2019 7:13am Mar 23, 2019 7:13am
Quoting obenfx
Should you have daily, weekly, or monthly return goals?
I've been turning this over in my mind since you posted it.

My thoughts. If I know what I'm looking for in regards my entries and exits I'm not going to worry what my monthly, weekly or daily goals will be.
I think that is just placing extra pressure on myself, and perhaps even a constraint, too. A little bit like a bounded mindset.

If I'm at my computer and I'm facing the markets all I want to be focusing 100% on is my entry then if I'm in a trade where I will exit.
If I can keep it that simple, everything else should take care of itself and frees my mind.

Thank you again for posting these thoughts that assist me to clear my own.
Empty your mind and let the market guide you
  • #10
  • Mar 23, 2019 7:23am Mar 23, 2019 7:23am
Quoting obenfx
My trading week is over so I will not be posting any live trades this week. Since I reached my monthly goal of 10-20%, I will be trading with lower risk next week. I will actually prefer taking next week off, but we'll see. The reason why I did not post any live trades this week was because all 3 positions closed while I was writing post #4. 　　　　　 Should you have daily, weekly, or monthly return goals? When I say my trading week is over, what I mean is that my weekly goal has been reached. I have weekly return...
don't have a weekly or monthly goal, but definitely have a daily goal/stop. The daily goal is needed for me to control two things (tilt and variance)

I have observed the last few months that as veefx put it, session opportunity cycle. If miss a profitable cycle in a session (asian/eu/US), my probability of loss increases when i continue trading. so i usually have fixed percentage target of the session range for daily. Wehn i lose, the max number of back to back losing setups i'd take is 3. I'd move to the next session to "reset" instead of continuing on the current session. Max overall setups for session is 5.

trading session is like the gaussian curve; there is an optimal profit taking opportunity, and each side of that...

but maybe i should reflect on these weekly or monthly goals..
  • #11
  • Mar 24, 2019 4:45pm Mar 24, 2019 4:45pm
Quoting SunnyCoast
{quote} I've been turning this over in my mind since you posted it. My thoughts. If I know what I'm looking for in regards my entries and exits I'm not going to worry what my monthly, weekly or daily goals will be. I think that is just placing extra pressure on myself, and perhaps even a constraint, too. A little bit like a bounded mindset. If I'm at my computer and I'm facing the markets all I want to be focusing 100% on is my entry then if I'm in a trade where I will exit. If I can keep it that simple, everything else should take care of itself...
Sunny,
Thank you for joining the conversation. I hope you had a great weekend. That is very true. It can definitely add unnecessary pressure and if you focus on the process, results will follow. Keep it simple.

Quoting hilmy83
{quote} don't have a weekly or monthly goal, but definitely have a daily goal/stop. The daily goal is needed for me to control two things (tilt and variance) I have observed the last few months that as veefx put it, session opportunity cycle. If miss a profitable cycle in a session (asian/eu/US), my probability of loss increases when i continue trading. so i usually have fixed percentage target of the session range for daily. Wehn i lose, the max number of back to back losing setups i'd take is 3. I'd move to the next session to "reset" instead...
Hilmy,
Thank you for sharing your thoughts. That is very interesting how you incorporate the session opportunity cycle into your trade management. It seems like there is logic behind your decision-making and you know exactly when to stop over-trading.
  • #12
  • Mar 24, 2019 5:14pm Mar 24, 2019 5:14pm
<Week of 3/24/19>

Trade #1: NZDUSD SELL

Entry: 0.68843
SL: -40 pips
TP: +40 pips

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20190324_NZDUSDH4.png Size: 32 KB


I had a pending order, but as I was taking screenshots and writing this post, the pending got triggered. Although the Daily and H4 seem bullish, there were huge daily rejections and it seems like price would have to move lower for buyers to come back in. This is definitely not a clean A+ setup for me, but I decided to enter the trade anyway with lower risk (1%) as I have already reached my monthly goal.

I am human and I would honestly be embarrassed if the first trade I post on my journal is a loser, but I know I am not a trader with a 100% win rate. I will have to get used to this.
  • #13
  • Mar 25, 2019 8:57pm Mar 25, 2019 8:57pm
Quoting obenfx
<Week of 3/24/19> Trade #1: NZDUSD SELL Entry: 0.68843 SL: -40 pips TP: +40 pips {image} I had a pending order, but as I was taking screenshots and writing this post, the pending got triggered. Although the Daily and H4 seem bullish, there were huge daily rejections and it seems like price would have to move lower for buyers to come back in. This is definitely not a clean A+ setup for me, but I decided to enter the trade anyway with lower risk (1%) as I have already reached my monthly goal. I am human and I would honestly be embarrassed...
Result: -40.0 pips (-1.02%)
March: +22.92%

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20190325_NZDUSDH4.png Size: 51 KB


Well, a humbling start it is. Do I regret taking the trade? Not really. As mentioned before, it was not an A+ setup for me, but I knew the risk and took the trade. Moving on. I currently see a potential CADJPY Buy. We'll see what happens.
  • #14
  • Mar 26, 2019 4:52am Mar 26, 2019 4:52am
Quoting obenfx
Just because I have positive stats does not mean trading is easy for me. I still go through psychological challenges and make dumb mistakes
Isn't that the truth.

Nice journal so far, hope you keep going.
  • #15
  • Mar 26, 2019 5:19am Mar 26, 2019 5:19am
Quoting obenfx
What are your thoughts about having daily, weekly, or monthly return goals? Have you tried having them?
I've been thinking about this a lot lately, a few months ago I transitioned from a scalper to more of a swing trader and so I have needed to think about things a lot differently.

I think that goals are perfect for traders that don't hold their positions for more than a day, my thinking behind that is they will have a whole new set of entries and opportunities to make money each day.

But for the swing traders a goal based approach might be a bad idea. They will get caught giving back 30 or 40 pips of potential profit from time to time but for example the last two weeks on the euro there was 250 pip move with multiple opportunities for additional entries, any kind of goal based profit would hold them back I think.
  • #16
  • Mar 26, 2019 6:28am Mar 26, 2019 6:28am
Quoting obenfx
{quote} Result: -40.0 pips (-1.02%) March: +22.92% {image} Well, a humbling start it is. Do I regret taking the trade? Not really. As mentioned before, it was not an A+ setup for me, but I knew the risk and took the trade. Moving on. I currently see a potential CADJPY Buy. We'll see what happens.
Onward and upward Oben! Almost Murphy's Law that you didn't get to post all of your profitable trades that went towards being over 20% for March and the trade you post in real time is a loss.

Big Picture Big Picture! Nice work
Empty your mind and let the market guide you
  • #17
  • Mar 26, 2019 12:57pm Mar 26, 2019 12:57pm
Quoting Anotan
{quote} I've been thinking about this a lot lately, a few months ago I transitioned from a scalper to more of a swing trader and so I have needed to think about things a lot differently. I think that goals are perfect for traders that don't hold their positions for more than a day, my thinking behind that is they will have a whole new set of entries and opportunities to make money each day. But for the swing traders a goal based approach might be a bad idea. They will get caught giving back 30 or 40 pips of potential profit from time to time but...
Hello Anotan,

Thank you for sharing your thoughts. I'm glad you have been thinking about this topic lately. Many traders tend to put little emphasis on such details when this one factor can largely influence your trading.

If you don't mind sharing, I'm curious as to why you transitioned from a scalper to a swing trader. I have my own reasons as to why I do not prefer scalping, but hearing other's opinions would be great too.
  • #18
  • Mar 26, 2019 1:40pm Mar 26, 2019 1:40pm
<Week of 3/24/19>

Trade #2: EURJPY BUY

Entry: 124.583
SL: -40 pips (Risking 1%)
TP: +50 pips

[EURJPY H4]
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20190326_EURJPYH4_Entry.jpg Size: 110 KB


CADJPY and EURJPY had very similar setups. I had pending orders at lower prices and would have preferred a deeper pullback earlier. Unfortunately, I was not given an entry opportunity. I have a little bit of worry that the upside move I wanted has already completed, but based on how I see the market, I think there is still more upside before sellers start to come in.

EURJPY BUY entry triggered. CADJPY is still pending.

USDCHF seemed like a potential buy as well, but the daily scares me. I have been burned by such setups before, so I'll pass on this one.
  • #19
  • Mar 26, 2019 7:59pm Mar 26, 2019 7:59pm
<Week of 3/24/19>

Trade #3: CADJPY BUY

Entry: 124.583
SL: -40 pips (Risking 1%)
TP: +40 pips

[CADJPY H4]
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20190326_CADJPY_Entry.jpg Size: 114 KB


CADJPY BUY pending triggered. Basically the same setup as EURJPY. I think there is still more upside left before sellers start to come in.

　　　　　　　　　　

Quoting obenfx
<Week of 3/24/19> Trade #2: EURJPY BUY Entry: 124.583 SL: -40 pips (Risking 1%) TP: +50 pips [EURJPY H4] {image} CADJPY and EURJPY had very similar setups. I had pending orders at lower prices and would have preferred a deeper pullback earlier. Unfortunately, I was not given an entry opportunity. I have a little bit of worry that the upside move I wanted has already completed, but based on how I see the market, I think there is still more upside before sellers start to come in. EURJPY BUY entry triggered. CADJPY is still pending. USDCHF seemed like a potential buy as well, but the daily scares me. I have been burned by such setups before, so I'll pass on this one.
UPDATE:
I made some changes to the TP and SL.

SL: -42 pips
TP: +48 pips
  • #20
  • Edited 3:39am Mar 27, 2019 2:55am | Edited 3:39am
Quoting obenfx
{quote} I'm curious as to why you transitioned from a scalper to a swing trader. I have my own reasons as to why I do not prefer scalping, but hearing other's opinions would be great too.
Main reason is that I just didn't have the skill set to see and understand the big picture of what was happening on any given pair. For the longest time I would just grind trades and scalp what I could for eight to ten hours a day. A few months ago I started recognizing the transfer of money from one side to the other.

I'm far from perfect, re-accumulation/re-distribution phases still sometimes throw me off, and it may take a few days to get trades to stick before the market actually moves but it feels more rewarding than grinding trades all day.
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