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  • #81,961
  • Mar 22, 2019 2:13pm Mar 22, 2019 2:13pm
Some of you might wonder could the chart above from LCForex also indicate the XABC legs of a potential Cypher? The answer is: NO! The C leg can not exceed the range between fib 1.130 to 1.414 extensions of XA leg. It doesn't mean it can't go up from here. It just means it is NOT a valid Cypher pattern. I hope it clarifies

Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #81,962
  • Mar 23, 2019 7:23am Mar 23, 2019 7:23am
Quoting Mystskull
{quote} Personally i think you will get another chance, i think i left the trade too early with just that 5 pips. But im expecting price to retest the low and gonna be watching for 5min divergence on the stochastic there.
Don't worry 5 pips is always better than losing the trade.
  • #81,963
  • Mar 23, 2019 7:38am Mar 23, 2019 7:38am
Quoting Hutch
{quote} Don't worry 5 pips is always better than losing the trade.
Exactly, this is what most traders don't understand and their equity curve be looking like troubled waters. While waiting for that home run trade, protect your equity.
Read in between the price!!!
  • #81,964
  • Edited Mar 24, 2019 1:21am Mar 23, 2019 12:51pm | Edited Mar 24, 2019 1:21am
Quoting Ker
Ata, I hope I'm not too out of topic (in case feel free to cancel it) but I think it could be helpful to many here. How do you improve discipline? Sometimes I maybe buy too early and I know it will go down a bit before going up. But how do you stick to stops loss even though your view is still the same? You accept it and open it again? You move it? Price turned in my favour, just 1 pip, but I didnt lock it. And it turned red again... After how many profitable pips you put stop to BE?
I have finally found the time to answer your question..

1) "Discipline" must be connected to a "goal". If you have no goal then you don't need discipline.
2) If you have a goal (especially in Forex) that means it is connected to a "plan or system". Because without a plan or system any goal is just a "wish".
3) Now, assuming you have a "plan or system" and assuming you stick to your system 100%, the next step is to know your "Statistics":

  1. Speaking of your "winners": How much draw-down at AVERAGE and at MAX are you facing? Is it 10 and 30 pips? 20 and 50 pips? 50 and 80 pips? Whatever the number pair is will be the key element that later will affect your discipline. (And just to make one thing clear, here and there you might have draw-downs more than most of your MAX values. Exclude those from your statistics).
  2. By knowing your AVERAGE and MAX value pair now you have a clear level where you have to decide to let go or still keep the trade. The better you calculate the value pair the better it will serve your decision making process at those tensed times.
  3. Speaking of your "losses": How much draw-down did these losses face and could you turn them into profit or at least to break-even trades if you had them run further instead of closing? That's the second statistics you have to know. That way if you find a level that has served many times as a critical MAX turning point then you can also make use of it next time by tolerating your losses up until that MAX-TURNING-POINT value. But again, you must study your charts and detect such number. That requires a lot of back-testing.

Long story short: You must have a solid plan/system first. Then you will work on your own statistics. And finally you will make use of your numbers at those crucial times where you are stuck in a drawdown and try to decide what to do next.

I hope it gives you an idea... because that's all I can provide.. Peace.. Out...

Stay Green

Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #81,965
  • Mar 23, 2019 3:45pm Mar 23, 2019 3:45pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} 1) "Discipline" must be connected to a "goal". If you have no goal then you don't need discipline.
2) If you have a goal (especially in Forex) that means it is connected to a "plan or system". Because without a plan or system any goal is just a "wish".
3) Now, assuming you have a "plan or system" and assuming you stick to your system 100%, the next step is to know your "Statistics": Speaking of your "winners": How much draw-down at MAX and at AVERAGE are you facing? Is it 10 and 30 pips? 20 and 50 pips? 50 and 80 pips? Whatever the number...
Great advice that everyone need to follow to succeed.
  • #81,966
  • Mar 23, 2019 4:40pm Mar 23, 2019 4:40pm
That's logical and essential to have a plan or system for doing business or even our entertainment but I don't agree with solid plan/system esp. in Forex trading cause there are some factors behind this business which are out of even a very successful strategy or plan. If you look at last week trend of some pairs you find out all indics suggested Up or down trend but suddenly trend went another way that with the best strategies you're not able to get it although there is a system that you can predict the trend of all pairs even before very strong or important news but even this plan needs patient and flexible till your prediction occurs of course, you can not find it here. By the way, ATa-Turkoglu suggested very useful and vital issue regarding your question which must consider them for trading but be sure you have to be flexible according to your plan if U wanna be successful in this market in long run.
Don’t follow someone else’s trading advice blindly
  • #81,967
  • Mar 23, 2019 7:36pm Mar 23, 2019 7:36pm
Quoting kamifx
That's logical and essential to have a plan . If you look at last week trend of some pairs you find out all indics suggested Up or down trend but suddenly trend went another way that with the best strategies you're not able to get it although there is a system that you can predict the trend of all pairs even before very strong or important news but even this plan needs patient and flexible till your prediction occurs of course, you can not find it here....successful in this market in long .
Please what is this system of prediction? If you don't mind sharing.
Read in between the price!!!
  • #81,968
  • Mar 24, 2019 2:36am Mar 24, 2019 2:36am
Quoting kamifx
That's logical and essential to have a plan or system for doing business or even our entertainment but I don't agree with solid plan/system esp. in Forex trading cause there are some factors behind this business which are out of even a very successful strategy or plan. If you look at last week trend of some pairs you find out all indics suggested Up or down trend but suddenly trend went another way that with the best strategies you're not able to get it although there is a system that you can predict the trend of all pairs even before very...
Based on your critic I can tell that your understanding of "system" is corrupt. You are talking about the failure of "a method or strategy". I am talking about "having a system or plan". A "system" consists of multiple methods. A system answers all the questions and all the possibilities. If on the course you figure that the "system" fails to answer a specific problem that's where you "improve" that missing part of the system but all the other parts stay as long as they work.

I said: A "system" consists of multiple methods and strategies. To give an example, in Forex these sub-elements could be "What timeframes I will watch?", "What will I do before or after news?", "What type of money management will I follow?", "What are my strategies when I open trades on slow times? on rallying times?, on choppy times? on swinging times? on a counter-trend? when trend following? when scalping?", "What indicators will I use all the time? or from time to time?", "What size of risk will I take for each of my decisions and types of trades?", "When will I not trade at all?", "When will I leave my trade trail, when will I put solid take profit levels?", "If x happens, then what will I do?"... all of these questions MUST HAVE BEEN THOROUGHLY PROCESSED and ANSWERED before you put a real order and you MUST follow the rules that you came up with 100%. That is called "a system" and that is the meaning of "sticking to your system 100%".

I hope it clarifies.

*And for your information: you are saying "suddenly trend went another way" so nobody could know. Nope.. that's maybe for you but not for many who have a solid system. I am one of them and proof is I announced one night ago that I went short on that and I was almost 100% sure it will drop. Based on "my system". BUT I understand your concern. The better way to put it is no system is complete. If the major part of our system works all we need to do is to keep perfecting it by answering future problems that we never encountered before. Never throw away a working system. Only alter its tiny parts to perfect it. But to do all of that you first MUST find a "working" system. That's the core part where many fail.

Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #81,969
  • Mar 24, 2019 11:14am Mar 24, 2019 11:14am
sellers coming in on that big 4H bar. Is this a legit bear move?

≧◠‿◠≦✌
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  • #81,970
  • Mar 24, 2019 12:56pm Mar 24, 2019 12:56pm
Price is king!
here's Monthly price chart..

Any long term traders around for debates?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #81,971
  • Mar 24, 2019 1:14pm Mar 24, 2019 1:14pm
EurUsd H4: According to last week on Fri. Down-Trend was clear but economic situation is in receding area and I think we must not expect E/U be able to break strong monthly Resist. or Support and we must consider ranging trend of E/U this week again. Probably, around levels i drew on below Attachment
Attached Image
Don’t follow someone else’s trading advice blindly
  • #81,972
  • Mar 24, 2019 1:35pm Mar 24, 2019 1:35pm
Looking at the monthly chart,Price has been finding it difficult to break below 61.8 fib ( taking low of 2000 to high of 2008).Only reason Selling big would be considered is if price breaks and closes below the 61.8 level (1.1216, this region kept market in range for two year,broken up in 2017 and termed "bulls land" by me.Now serves as support).Reason to long is more supported. Buying big,unless that region caves in down for big sell . Buy buy buy all the way!

Plenty pips to all!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Follow the Flow and Grow
  • #81,973
  • Mar 24, 2019 2:08pm Mar 24, 2019 2:08pm
Hi all

I'd say sell. Two days red must be with a reason 🙊🙊🙊👎😂😂😱

Down more likely than up - stocks, Brexit lies, US latest strength, Fed (not that dovish), trendline (jump under again!!!).

Sell 1.1290-1350 for lower 1.12 1.11...

Trade safe!!
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #81,974
  • Mar 24, 2019 2:45pm Mar 24, 2019 2:45pm
M30 TF:

─ Sell the highs from Sell Zone 2 or Sell the rips from Sell Zone 1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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...otherwise, Buy the dip or cheap at 1.12580
Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #81,975
  • Mar 24, 2019 3:21pm Mar 24, 2019 3:21pm
Quoting Not-KPMG
Hi all I'd say sell. Two days red must be with a reason Down more likely than up - stocks, Brexit lies, US latest strength, Fed (not that dovish), trendline (jump under again!!!). Sell 1.1290-1350 for lower 1.12 1.11... Trade safe!!
Sure, you will get sell opportunities on the way up.Regards.
Plenty pips to you!
Follow the Flow and Grow
  • #81,976
  • Mar 24, 2019 4:18pm Mar 24, 2019 4:18pm
The AB=CD harmonic completed its Fib 61.8 retracement. That retracement has formed its own AB=CD harmonic. Price is sitting in a Support Structure Zone. It may retest the low before rallying to Fib23.6, Fib38.2 or Fib61.8. Structure Resistance Zone at Fib 38.2. Ignore diagonal lines from left to right, higher time frame analysis. I have no position, as I am anticipating a retest of harmonic low
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Don't wait for the wind, take to the oars.
  • #81,977
  • Mar 24, 2019 4:45pm Mar 24, 2019 4:45pm
Quoting Pleiadian
The AB=CD harmonic completed its Fib 61.8 retracement. That retracement has formed its own AB=CD harmonic. Price is sitting in a Support Structure Zone. It may retest the low before rallying to Fib23.6, Fib38.2 or Fib61.8. Structure Resistance Zone at Fib 38.2. Ignore diagonal lines from left to right, higher time frame analysis. I have no position, as I am anticipating a retest of harmonic low {image}
To give an inverted head and shoulder on 1hr tf I think, then rally up.
Follow the Flow and Grow
  • #81,978
  • Mar 25, 2019 12:19am Mar 25, 2019 12:19am
Based on M15, bear pressure will be loaded around 1.1308. Once it gets above bulls can push it higher towards 1.1333 area.

Waiting for Franky and London to open.

Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #81,979
  • Mar 25, 2019 12:23am Mar 25, 2019 12:23am
... https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...5#post12146565
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  • #81,980
  • Mar 25, 2019 12:53am Mar 25, 2019 12:53am
I marked out 1305 area as the latest breakout level. Coupled with the fact that its around 10 pips above the red lwma, and that price is below green LWMA on every higher timeframe, that area looks good for shorts. What do you think Ata?
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Go with the flow
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