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Institutional Equivalent Education?

  • #821
  • Mar 18, 2019 12:38pm Mar 18, 2019 12:38pm
The MAX are having a Live Trading Event on Thurs 21st March.
It is only fair to mention it for all you 'Indicator Junkies'

Attached File(s)
File Type: docx MAX-liveTrading-event.docx   25 KB | 352 downloads
  • #822
  • Mar 20, 2019 8:21am Mar 20, 2019 8:21am
Key Reasons why traders fail:

Starting with that, here are the key points (for me) from last night's webinar:
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  • #823
  • Mar 20, 2019 8:26am Mar 20, 2019 8:26am
More from last night's webinar:
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For more detail on the 2 courses on offer, contact [email protected]
1 week Orderflow and Equities class
Or
Full course ( 5 weeks) which includes the 1 week Orderflow and Equities
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  • #824
  • Mar 20, 2019 12:22pm Mar 20, 2019 12:22pm
I have posted a few screenshots of the earlier version of the OFten Indicator suite. It is a suite of 'institutional strength' Order Flow Indicators (designed by Ray) for the Sierra Chart package 5 charting package.

Order Flow indicators work best with a Futures data feed, but some of these are also useful with just the (bundled in ) free 'SpotFX & CFDs' data supplied with a standard Sierra Chart subscription.

Here are the descriptions of Indicators in the latest version of OFten only made available to Ray's students, which means at least taking the 1 week OrderFlow course.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Order+Flow+Trading+Enhancements+Suite+Contents+_+March+2019+(3).pdf   72 KB | 1,696 downloads
  • #825
  • Edited Mar 21, 2019 7:36am Mar 20, 2019 6:27pm | Edited Mar 21, 2019 7:36am
The recording of the Tuesday 8pm Eastern time webinar 'Institutional Order Flow & Equity Trade' session with Ray is now poated
in the CompassFX PropTraders Blog: https://www.compassproptraders.com/blog/

Unfortunately it has the comment section disabled, so you can't see the answers that I and Mike (an ex-Bank trader) and others students gave to questions in there.

In fact there are lots of great recordings in the Blog that can help people improve their trading.
Ray doesn't do the same sales webinar material twice, so he keeps giving away some valuable things in almost every free webinar.
  • #826
  • Mar 21, 2019 5:24pm Mar 21, 2019 5:24pm
Institutional OrderFlow Indicator Suite

On Saturday the guy who programmed the OFten indicator suite for Sierra Chart to Ray's specifications is doing an introduction to it:
The .pdf posted above in post number 824 give the briefest of descriptions of these indicators.
But you can actually see them on charts in the webinar that David is doing:

Live “Institutional Order Flow” Trade Suite Saturday March 23rd at 11:00 AM EASTERN
LOGIN HERE: http://compassfx.webinato.com/sharpedge (Password: trade or deskpro)
(No Registration Required)
  • #827
  • Mar 22, 2019 6:11am Mar 22, 2019 6:11am
Ian, I just signed up here and plan to take Ray's course. I have a question: Has David converted the Indicators he made for Ray into other languages, like Ninja Trader- 8 ? I just found your post for David's Sat event and will attend. I have been with Mark Coe for couple years. Please reply via my e-mail. I sent you an e-mail, but AOL shut down. Thank you, John
  • #828
  • Mar 22, 2019 12:05pm Mar 22, 2019 12:05pm
Email from a new prospective student for Sharp Edge course:

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And my reply:
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  • #829
  • Mar 23, 2019 7:22pm Mar 23, 2019 7:22pm
Boris Schlossberg is peddling his MT4 EAs again. He is also starting to get a little more real (though not much) in his latest email (my comments in blue):

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Can Retail Traders Trade like the World’s Biggest Hedge Fund? Yes! - No, not really! They can't trade the same Markets or even use the same trade types. Boris is just putting a huge spin on the fact that Retail Traders CAN use leverage sensibly , however in the past he has always advised them NOT To!

Ray Dalio built Bridgewater Associates into the world’s largest hedge fund, on one simple idea -- safe assets can give big returns if lever them correctly.

Yes, yes, yes. I know that Risk Parity strategy has been a huge beneficiary of secular yield declines, global yield compressions and that greatest gift of all -- Quantitative Easing.

But details aside, the fundamental insight that made Dalio billions upon billions of dollars was that you did not have to risk your hard earned money on risky stocks. You could just buy nearly risk-free treasury assets and then lever them up so that a one year t-bill yielding a virtually guaranteed rate of 1% levered 5X would suddenly transform itself into a 5% annual return without any of the heart palpitations of holding stock.

I am of course simplifying greatly - NOT KIDDING - LOL! , but Dalio’s success holds lessons for us all. We all have a variety of strategies we trade in FX. Some are lottery type payout ideas that bleed money until one big hit pays out for a year’s worth of work. Others are just the opposite. Insurance like products that provide small but steady profits each day but can wipe out half the equity on one badly stopped trade. And then there are strategies that just tread water.

I have one such day strategy myself. It makes about twenty trades per week and on a good week ekes out about 40-50 pips of profit. It has modest stops and even more restrained profit targets and just the tiniest of an edge to give me a small return. All in all, it takes about 100 trades to make 100 pips of profit from this strategy.-Wow, that really is a tiny edge. With such a small edge it would only take a tiny change in the market action to wipe it out! I wonder how long this has been live forward tested for?

That probably horrifies most of you. I still remember the howls of outrage from some of my members when I told them that most good day trading strategies essentially have a positive expectancy of about 1 pip per trade.- Justified howls of outrage since it is not true, though it may be true for Boris' strategies! This is basically equivalent of walking up Broadway from downtown to uptown and bending up at each street intersection to pick up a penny. After about 10 blocks you will quickly grow tired of the task. But imagine if you had an automatic hoover machine that grabbed those pennies for you. Not only that, it sorted them out, put them in rolls, deposited them in your bank account without you doing any work.

That’s the power of a day trading robot. If I had to hunt and peck my way to 100 day-trades a month, I would have stopped a long time ago. But with my EA working 24 hours a day, I never have to worry about missing an entry, managing my exit or watching the market. This very modest strategy runs by itself and slowly adds pips to my account.

This is where Ray Dalio’s strategy comes in. While my day trading is hardly a Treasury bill, it is the lowest volatility strategy in my portfolio. It rarely declines by more than 50 to 100 pips from peak to trough. That means I can margin it at 5X lever and have decent shot at making 500 pips per month or about 5% on my money. That’s huge! - OK Boris so making $5,000 per month on a $100,000 account is huge for you. So I struggle to understand why you have any followers at all! If I even come close to that target that means I can aim for 60% returns with maybe 20% max drawdowns. - Note he is saying 60% return per year. I think 'Mr Carlsberg' averages around 60% per month by trading 3 days per week and since he has less than 1 losing day per year, his drawdowns are very much smaller than 20% - probably more like less than 2% ! Such payouts just don’t exist in standard market instruments where the absolute best you can hope for is to lose about half what you seek to gain (so if you want to double your account, be willing to lose half of it -- and very likely more than that). - Boris is spouting rubbish again here, It is more about HOW YOU TRADE than WHICH MARKET YOU TRADE!

That’s the power of automated trading in today’s retail markets. It allows you to mimic the risk profile of the world greatest hedge fund, without having a billion dollars in the bank.


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  • #830
  • Mar 24, 2019 12:07pm Mar 24, 2019 12:07pm
Rolling down the yield curve.

Perhaps some are curious about how big institutions trade government bonds (not Bond Futures) which are huge markets, dwarfing both Stocks and Spot FX.
So here is a little picture about how effective Bond yields roll down the yield curve and thus give profit opportunities.

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From this you can see that there is an enormous difference between leveraging Bond trades and doing the same for Stocks or other riskier markets.
  • #831
  • Mar 24, 2019 1:08pm Mar 24, 2019 1:08pm
Since I compared Boris Schlossberg unfavourably with the best traders that I know of, I think it is important to answer a question which is often asked when I have mentioned the returns that a really good trader can make when they've had the best trading education.

It is simply: "Why aren't such traders amongst the richest people in the world?" Or : "Why aren't these people world famous traders, like George Soros or Warren Buffett?" etc.

There are several reasons:
The main reason is that they don't run a 'fund' or trade other people's money.
Ray for example is not employed as a trader (even tough he would earn more if he was). He is a much better Quant/Strategist/Analyst than he is as a trader, and he is wealthy enough that job satisfaction comes first!

Another reason was mentioned by Tim on the 'Traders Only Talk' webinar (see post number 810 on a previous page). It is that either they are uncomfortable psychologically when trading in much larger size; or their edge requires that they are able to enter and exit without considerations on the Liquidity available. That is that they lose their edge if they trade too large.

The final reasons are ones given earlier in this thread by both me and by my friend Sam, who said :

"Quoting juangecko
{quote} Why don't you offer trading third parties accounts? that is the best way to prove how good you are at trading. Ian and you are not willing to do that.

Why should I offer that?
I don't need the money and I'm a free man. If I would offer that my freedom is gone. I have never offered my services to anyone. Not even my own family although I have been asked countless times.
And I don't have to prove to anyone Ray's method works. There are many examples that prove that. There are also examples that it didn't work some how but the way of trading has to resonate with you."


And I said: "I even turned down trading money for my wife! I did that because I know she is amazingly risk averse, so I would have felt impossible pressure to have at least no losing weeks, if not no losing days. I only know of 2 retail traders who have achieved that over at least a 6 month period - I certainly haven't. Neither of them will even consider trading other people's money !

A retail trader has to be not just a trader, but a Strategist, an Analyst and a Risk Manager. Adding a Customer Services and a Marketing role to that huge workload is just asking for trouble."

  • #832
  • Mar 26, 2019 4:31am Mar 26, 2019 4:31am
Ray is doing another marketing webinar tonight, I hope to attend (if I can stay awake). The content is always different, so it won't just be a repeat of last week's one:

************************************************************************************************************
Hi Ian,

Yes, Ray’s back to deliver more market truths...he’s so good, make sure you attend!

Live “Institutional Order Flow” Session Tuesday at 8:00 PM EASTERN

Ray’s certainly not your typical “trade mentor, market guru”, he’s not bringing force fitted information to the market place, he’s a top quant, an institutional trade strategist, let him show you how to build a simple trade model...see how to properly explore observations in the market and develop out a solid narrative with statistics that quantify your edges and probabilities, now that’s trading.

The biggest mistake retail traders make is force fitting parameters by changing the settings, you know adjusting the settings on the indicator...are you guilty, let’s fix that!

It’s not the settings, it’s the Market Narrative that gives you a Powerful Guideline for your trading...you really need to get this right.

Join us tomorrow night Tuesday, March 26th to better understand the process you need to “think like an institution”.

Finally, Ray an elite trade strategist provides traders a blueprint to define market analysis, the narrative...truth in trading.

Live “Institutional Order Flow” Session Tuesday at 8:00 PM EASTERN

LOGIN HERE: http://compassfx.webinato.com/sharpedge

(Password: trade or deskpro)

(No Registration Required)

Please forward this invitation to all hardworking traders, they’ll thank you for it!

Also, learn the simple “Institutional Trade Exercise” used for new bank trade interns, traders just like you to get a proper start trading, it helps understand how the markets operate, to see who’s in control of the market and to understand the market auction process...“to think like an institution”.

Seriously, training with Ray is Simply the Best.

Ray will be LIVE Tuesday Night...show up and gain valuable “Institutional Market Insight”, knowledge most retail traders are missing in their trading...critical information to your trading, regardless what market(s) you are trading.

See you Tuesday, time to “Think Like an Institution”!

************************************************************************************************
  • #833
  • Mar 27, 2019 1:21pm Mar 27, 2019 1:21pm
I feel that in the Tuesday night webinar,Ray's explanation of the studies showing that Fib numbers don't work in trading was rather confusing.

Here is my attempt at explaining it better than he did:
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  • #834
  • Mar 29, 2019 11:02am Mar 29, 2019 11:02am
Anybody reading this thread who didn't like the new course Ray is starting to teach next week may be interested in the 'Indicator-based Trend Following' style of trading taught at The MAX.

Here is their latest email:
**************************************************************

Winning the lottery is tough. Probably not the best money-making plan. Consider improving and making something you already do (or are thinking of doing) an effective part of your cash flow.

You absolutely can become a better trader, and yes, there is a way to know the most likely direction price will move, and then follow the trend with confidence.

Watch the Max Trading System traded live and see the potential to improve your trades threefold across Stocks, Futures and FX.
Get all the latest details on our system, and watch us trade it live by registering for our March 30th webinar. Everyone registered will receive a free seat at next week's live-trading session.
All registrants attending are entered into a Prize Drawing for two weeks' worth of professional training using the Max System.

Inconvenient timing for this webinar? No problem, we'll send you the playback video.
Register Here for the webinar, video, prize drawing.

Thanks for your time!

The MAX Team
Eusebio, Chris, Craig
*********************************************************************************************************************
  • #835
  • Mar 29, 2019 1:38pm Mar 29, 2019 1:38pm
The final open webinar from Ray for a while.
They are cutting it a bit fine, before the course starts on Monday:

FINAL “Truth in Trading” Session with Ray...Finding Institutional Value!
Live “Institutional Value Exercise” Session Sunday at 7:00 PM EASTERN

LOGIN HERE: http://compassfx.webinato.com/sharpedge

(Password: trade or deskpro)

(No Registration Required)

Please forward this invitation to all hardworking traders, they’ll thank you for it!
  • #836
  • Mar 30, 2019 5:06am Mar 30, 2019 5:06am
Quoting ianf0ster
Key Reasons why traders fail: Starting with that, here are the key points (for me) from last night's webinar: {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
Now the one milion dollars question.
"How" the value line is being calculated?
  • #837
  • Mar 30, 2019 8:16am Mar 30, 2019 8:16am
Quoting mcquak
{quote} Now the one milion dollars question. "How" the value line is being calculated?


Hi mcquak,
Sorry to disappoint, but because of the student Non-Disclosure Agreement I am not allowed to give you precise details.
The 'Value lines' (note the plural) for any particular market are derived from other tradeable correlated markets. Them being a formula from other markets means that they can be put on a chart.

Thus they are not a product of Price and Volume like conventional Indicators are.
  • #838
  • Edited 12:34pm Mar 30, 2019 10:13am | Edited 12:34pm
Quoting ianf0ster
{quote} Hi mcquak, Sorry to disappoint, but because of the student Non-Disclosure Agreement I am not allowed to give you precise details. The 'Value lines' (note the plural) for any particular market are derived from other tradeable correlated markets. Them being a formula from other markets means that they can be put on a chart. Thus they are not a product of Price and Volume like conventional Indicators are.
There ain't no such thing as a free lunch.
I've been part time algo trader for couple of years now, utilizing corr. and coint. strategies in R and Python and several other technologies and running all in cloud. It's been tough path. Hence my question was rather rhetorical, but thanks for honest answer.
  • #839
  • Mar 30, 2019 11:03am Mar 30, 2019 11:03am
Quoting mcquak
{quote} There ain't no such thing as a free lunch. I've been part time algo trader for couple of years now, utilizing corr. and coint. strategies in R and Python and several other technologies and running all in cloud. It's been tough path. Hence my question was rather hypothetical, but thanks for honest answer.
You may not be making one of the common mistakes, but since they are common mistakes it means lots of people make them:
1. There is no such thing as a correlated market that always leads, or always mean reverts. AT least not for trader with a retail sized account.
2. In choosing to use a correlated market as a value guide for your traded market, it should not be too correlated otherwise it won't give any trade opportunities (big divergences).
3. The best, but most dangerous correlations are ones where the correlated market is something that the Big institutions use as a hedge against the traded market. The danger is that most of the big Institutions don't trade directionally very much, they are mostly doing Hedged trades, because they are easier to get sanctioned by the Risk Manager. So for the retail trader this can be tough, since the institutions may be acting (with the smallest size they can manage) to take the correlations further out of line - so that they can trade them back into line!
  • #840
  • Mar 30, 2019 12:02pm Mar 30, 2019 12:02pm
Quoting mcquak
{quote} There ain't no such thing as a free lunch. I've been part time algo trader for couple of years now, utilizing corr. and coint. strategies in R and Python and several other technologies and running all in cloud. It's been tough path. Hence my question was rather hypothetical, but thanks for honest answer.
You should do the course if you are using algos. Ray designs algos for the institutions and teaches us how they 'think' when they are engaged etc etc.
Also you will learn what markets to use for the correlations, plus all the orderflow etc etc
Boxing clever since 76.
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