Trading news and sentiment

more bad US data. Lets see how yields reacts because it is not supporting the data at the moment so we might get a shift.

watching USDJPY as well (taking oil our the mix with cad for a different opportunity)

as yields rise bond prices are falling meaning money is leaving and going elsewhere. Follow the money -> emerging markets (i see emerging market currencies strengthening against the $ )

Next week

We get the RBA meeting minutes which should give further clarity on their intentions. Au is a unique case, it hasn't had a recession since 1991. Recently the country has been going through a rough time. China slowing has affected its economy as has US\China tariffs. They also have been going through a housing crisis and this has affected consumer sentiment. Markets are expecting a rate cut if the data continues to be poor.

We also get to hear from the FED although no changes are expected. They are at neutral and the data has been mixed lately and they haven't clarified when policy might change only that they are data dependent so it won't be much of an opportunity.

We'll also hear from the SNB but they are not likely to budge on their expanaionary policy so not much of an opportunity there.

We also hear from the BOE, yes its a pretty busy central bank week.and with brexit going on I don't expect any movement or surprises.

There is an EU economic summit which could offer some opportunity but will be in the form of unscheduled news.


Other than that there are the usual economic releases but with so much central bank activity it could be a range bound week but that's just my opinion and I don't trade opinion I trade the data so we will have to wait and see.

Thanks EcoTrader
I've been a silent watcher of postings and threads like yours for about 3 years now; weekly, daily, etc.. I do my own evaluation as well but mine does not come from a well seasoned veteran in fundamental affairs as yours does; it really helps to think through these news releases, be they factual or merely lies meant to mislead. Anyway, I really appreciate your view on Economic Stuff and what you've written on other's threads as well.
Take care, make tons of money, and spend it all wisely;
me : )

Hi itLWs

Happy to help were I can, I switched the thread over from general concepts to trading focused which should help people understand the process better. I will add more central bank analysis so people can do the research on their own. Marrying the bigger picture with micro fundamentals offers a way to gauge direction. Then it's just a case of trading the catalysts.

I am going to add a new thread that mixes technicals which align to the fundamentals. I have observed a scenario weekly that is outside the parameters of my strategy and looks to show a lot of potential. I know a lot of people cant understand trading without technicals and thats okay, each to their own. But since I have a potential strategy that mixes the two, the new thread is appropriate and actually might be better suited to most traders.

Hi Eco! I just want to ask. How would you do your analysis if your aim was to trade with a dayjob? Sorry in advance if this is a silly question because from what I understand your process seems to involve a considerable amount of time each day and making sure that to leave no stone unturned. I hope that makes sense. :d

Alex

Hi Alex

Actually, the process is perfect for those working fulltime. There is however the initial baseline you need to do at the beginning which can take a week or 2. If you can spare 2 uninterrupted hours a day you can achieve a baseline in a week. Once that is done its just maintenance which you can do in the evenings at your own pace.

During the working day, you do not need to spend any time researching. In fact, if you are then you are doing it wrong. All you need to do during the working day is:

 

1. Be fully aware of the major scheduled news on the day. You should also be aware of any significant news out later in the week that could be driving sentiment (typically central bank communication).
2. Periodically spend a few minutes scanning your news feed (forexlive is perfect for this). This activity keeps your knowledge fresh on sentiment which is key for pairing currencies.
3. A few mins before a news release you need to scan the feed again and at this point know how you will pair the currency. Scanning the news feeds is all about tuning into sentiment. No research needed.
4. If the news release shows a deviation that will give you an opportunity then take it at the market.
5. Manage your trade as you wish. I employ a dynamic management process which requires me to have a peek at a chart for a moment periodically. Setting an expectation for the trade is important (is it worth 15, 20, 30, or more pips). You set this expectation off the back of your research and how much attention is being given to it in the news feed. Don't worry this is a skill you have to learn but it doesn't take long to get good at it. The more you review your notes and add maintenance research, the more your brain tunes in to what's really going on.
6. When you are out the trade you simply continue the process of periodic news feed scans unless there is no major news, in which case you are done in the market for the day

I can't stress how significant it is to have an economic calendar and using it to trade is on freeing up time. You know exactly when you might trade and you are not sitting in front a screen all day. Being able to do your research after hours makes all the difference. It is essentially preparing you with the foundation knowledge and adding sentiment to the mix provides you with all the information you need to pair strongest against weakest and decide if an opportunity is available.

I hope this puts your concerns to rest. I manage to trade every day while consulting in financial services. Essentially i am living proof it can be done without impacting your job.

Reminder

It is a very busy central bank communication week. Tomorrow is the Fed and there is an expectation of a dovish have to growth projections. Be aware that markets might be quiet leading into the major risk event.

Thank you for answering EcoTrader. I look forward to your website when it's up. Thanks for doing us retail traders a favor. Consistently losing money has taken a lot out of me. I'll reserve my other questions perhaps next time, please continue to do your analysis.

I have mentioned before about my dynamic trade management process and i realise it might sound complex or vague so here is some further clarity. I don't use charts to initiate a trade but do find them useful for managing a trade. My dynamic management process uses charts with basic confluence levels as a gauge of sentiment strength. Essentially what you want to see is price smash through levels indicating significant interest. When price can't break a level the chances are it will not do it at least in the current session and you don't want to be sitting on risk. So using basic eyeballing on levels and adding a time element you can very accurately gauge the best exits possible. Sometimes price will sit there and eventually smash though but most of the time it wont and you need to formulate a process to accommodate the majority not the few. This is contradictory to what you normally here where people that use risk reward and swing trading are looking for home runs and accept many losses will be absorbed by the few winners. The process I use turns that on its head and the result of handling the many and allowing the few runners to escape translates into more profit at the end of each month.

here is a visual depiction on just a single pair showing news releases, the market reaction, and the levels where sentiment runs out of energy.

UK data today has been good with a beat on wages and unemployment. We do have brexit hanging overhead but the reality is nobody wants a cliff edge so it is looking very likely some last minute extension is on the cards. USD is on a back footing (some front running and profit taking ahead of the FED tomorrow). All things considered, and i was a bit late on this one, i have bought GBPUSD on the pullback after the data release. Sentiment was not strong enough to pull back through the level which indicated to me that there was more scope given the environment to have another stab at 1.33

i am going to need to see some movement else will close this trade

that's me out - Thanks May for releasing this to take me out (UK PM Spokesman: PM Is Not Prepared To Revoke Art. 50)

Reports Some US Officials See China Rescinds Trade Offers

Stock market taking a hit. Watching yen and dow for potential opportunity

Buying nok this morning. Rate increase expected tomorrow

Related story

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/nor...-roll-20190320

just closed off 65 pips profit from shorting gbpjpy on brexit news flow. Easy money

Boom boom boom

Dovish fed as expected and nok is moving like a dream, my entry is 8.53511 and price is currently 8.4898 , made 50 pips on usdjpy as well.

Over 150 pips today, haven't counted might be more

Just counted, 186 pips bagged. Happy days.