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Plan the Trade

  • #11,381
  • Mar 19, 2019 4:43pm Mar 19, 2019 4:43pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Appreciate sharing your thoughts and ideas DD. Please continue and do what works/convenient for you. This is a no-pressure zone for us :-) If you (or anyone) is concerned that my posts were being "judgemental", it really was not that at all. It was more to do with "preciseness" as execution matters... but regardless of execution, anyone with a simple excel skillset would know that even a one tick offset in such style of micro-scalping could cause havoc in the trading outcome. I have run 100s of models on a exact same strategy (not Harold's)...
I would say that Harold's entries and exits are mechanical. But he did say if he see the trade "struggling" he will get out, so he does not let his hard stops get hit, this is one discretionary aspect, another one is that he does take those setups based on market structure, which everyone may not see as quickly as he does. He has been doing his setups for awhile, the brain eventually knows when not to do something. You are a computer scientist, hilmy is an engineer, I am a quantitative analyst of health care trends. The thing I am getting at is that all one's are not one's and vice versa, so we all have to cleanse the data in our real jobs. I am not sure that in trading this is possible. Anomalies will come along and mess up the models, and they do not even have to be full on black swans. Trump might tweet, and there goes the model for the day.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #11,382
  • Mar 19, 2019 6:02pm Mar 19, 2019 6:02pm
Price action is all you need. This is from a classic thread on ET> the AHG thread. These principles still work very well today...

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  • #11,383
  • Mar 19, 2019 7:42pm Mar 19, 2019 7:42pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} If i tell you that the price of strawberries is $3, does it help you in making any sort of conclusion about that price of strawberries? Probably not. What will help you more likely are questions like, what is the "fair" value of strawberries last few weeks?.
This misses the fact that the futres market is an active, highly liquid auction market. Price is truth. What we are doing is hoping to anticipate where the price discovery process will go next on is never ending search for value. Price, at the moment, is truth.
  • #11,384
  • Mar 19, 2019 7:47pm Mar 19, 2019 7:47pm
Quoting jack411
Price action is all you need. This is from a classic thread on ET> the AHG thread. These principles still work very well today... {image}
AHG in the beginning was very similar to Harold's Flag Trading the Trend.
  • #11,385
  • Mar 19, 2019 8:07pm Mar 19, 2019 8:07pm
pullback trading imop best way to trade
  • #11,386
  • Mar 19, 2019 9:35pm Mar 19, 2019 9:35pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I would say that Harold's entries and exits are mechanical. But he did say if he see the trade "struggling" he will get out, so he does not let his hard stops get hit, this is one discretionary aspect, another one is that he does take those setups based on market structure, which everyone may not see as quickly as he does. He has been doing his setups for awhile, the brain eventually knows when not to do something. You are a computer scientist, hilmy is an engineer, I am a quantitative analyst of health care trends. The thing I am getting...
Agree. I will respond in my thread how I plan to address the last sentence. As a side project, I am pulling all my research over from 28-pair FX solution into practical implementation on NQ (into a one pair solution). First and foremost is the make some $$$ while these mind-invigorating ideas floating in my head are queued for future. For now, it's time to chill and plan for my trip to the Bahamas :-)
Staying in my lane...
  • #11,387
  • Mar 20, 2019 1:51am Mar 20, 2019 1:51am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} this documentary kind of explains that volume "interest" precede price (at minute 25:32). You can't get any more pure of a marketplace than the pits back in the day. https://youtu.be/GAROtBTd4dg?t=1527 Time is the definite starting point. Then it seems that volume comes before price. Price is the final settlement in everything, how can it precede anything? There has to be bids/offers for price to move anywhere. Just because volume is not "registered"...
Perhaps the craziest day in Merc history. Certainly a day that fortunes where made and lost. George Soros may have broke to the Bank of England, but those Chicago boys tore his face off that day....
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #11,388
  • Edited 3:22am Mar 20, 2019 3:01am | Edited 3:22am
Quoting Rmg
{quote} I care less to see where S/d, I just follow the channel.. that's all i need as far as my concern, i am sure i can withdraw money from my bucketshop broker and tax free, dutyfree, no charting fees or anyother f****g fees {image} {image}
Respect if you can make money trading those markets. I have a lot of screen time with the dax. NQ is a lot easier to trade. The accuracy and speed of entry (fills vs no fills) is beyond comparison. I get the not paying fees thing, but personally after missing 2 runs of +25+ this week on the dax, I'd rather pay the money and get filled when I place my order. I mean wtf? Price just blasts through a buy order and it's a no fill twice on 2 different days...

If anything is going to awaken the revenge trading demon, it is that kind of behaviour. Still the positive is that at least my entries must be close to where they should be.
'in less than half an hour he made over 100 ticks'
  • #11,389
  • Mar 20, 2019 3:50am Mar 20, 2019 3:50am
Quoting onejester
{quote} Respect if you can make money trading those markets. I have a lot of screen time with the dax. NQ is a lot easier to trade. The accuracy and speed of entry (fills vs no fills) is beyond comparison. I get the not paying fees thing, but personally after missing 2 runs of +25+ this week on the dax, I'd rather pay the money and get filled when I place my order. I mean wtf? Price just blasts through a buy order and it's a no fill twice on 2 different days... If anything is going to awaken the revenge trading demon, it is that kind of behaviour....
You mean ,you don't get fills in futures or cfd?.
Most of my orders are market orders, stop entry triggered on Dow this morning, I found Dow is much better than Dax and nq in terms of range.
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on a postive roll...
  • #11,390
  • Edited 4:49am Mar 20, 2019 4:12am | Edited 4:49am
Quoting Rmg
{quote} You mean ,you don't get fills in futures or cfd?. Most of my orders are market orders, stop entry triggered on Dow this morning, I found Dow is much better than Dax and nq in terms of range. {image}
Dax spot, haven't traded Dow since I started with NQ. I only traded Dow when I was less experienced and it used to frighten the shit out of me, you are right about the range.

Dax has been ok this morning, but since I've started getting closer with my entries missing a couple of the big moves frustrated the hell out of me. I do use 'Traders Trick TTE' entries, and in futures there is a lot more control (even an idiot like me can scalp away). But on spot, I'll set an entry say a buy above a bar and it will often trigger before I want it to. It's like what you see on the chart is slowed down in comparison to what is really happening behind the chart.

May be broker specific, but you can see the why there is suspicion surrounding spot and the like.

I've said I'd give up the Dax before now and gone back on my word because I like to trade when I'm awake. But I don't know if I'm actually doing myself more harm than good, because in the afternoon (I'm in Europe) I'm subconsciously trading the dax on the NQ and not letting my runners run. I mean, some of the entries I made on the NQ recently if I'd let them run or not bailed out of reversals (see the short on yesterdays chart), well... But no, I'm all jumpy because I'm hardwiring myself to trade something that doesn't take off in the morning.

So if you look at the image from half an hour ago, it shows that there must be a ghost in my machine.
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Using MT4 and the brokers name resembles something you put on your food with salt. There is no way in hell this would happen with Futures/Sierra.
'in less than half an hour he made over 100 ticks'
  • #11,391
  • Mar 20, 2019 4:21am Mar 20, 2019 4:21am
Quoting onejester
{quote} Dax spot, haven't traded Dow since I started with NQ. I only traded Dow when I was less experienced and it used to frighten the shit out of me, you are right about the range. Dax has been ok this morning, but since I've started getting closer with my entries missing a couple of the big moves frustrated the hell out of me. I do use 'Traders Trick TTE' entries, and in futures there is a lot more control (even an idiot like me can scalp away). But on spot, I'll set an entry say a buy above a bar and it will often trigger before I want it to....
They put it as delayed price relay about 30 sec or something , but still i put on trades what i see on the chart, no need to go paranoid of whats happening on real time.
Iam testing same entry critteria on NQ, Dax,DOW so far DOW provides more points than others.
on a postive roll...
  • #11,392
  • Mar 20, 2019 4:50am Mar 20, 2019 4:50am
FOMC and Funds Rate going to have things quiet in the morning on nq as people wait for the news?
  • #11,393
  • Mar 20, 2019 5:20am Mar 20, 2019 5:20am
Quoting onejester
{quote} Dax spot, haven't traded Dow since I started with NQ. I only traded Dow when I was less experienced and it used to frighten the shit out of me, you are right about the range. Dax has been ok this morning, but since I've started getting closer with my entries missing a couple of the big moves frustrated the hell out of me. I do use 'Traders Trick TTE' entries, and in futures there is a lot more control (even an idiot like me can scalp away). But on spot, I'll set an entry say a buy above a bar and it will often trigger before I want it to....
Lol! There is no ghost in your machine mate, i took the same loss as you.
Is that a demand zone ,seems to be busted very soon.
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on a postive roll...
  • #11,394
  • Mar 20, 2019 6:13am Mar 20, 2019 6:13am
Quoting bapakjason
FOMC and Funds Rate going to have things quiet in the morning on nq as people wait for the news?
Very possibly ... It is Wednesday so I know Harold is not trading. I have seen price do little more the wiggle and wind into a tight range for hours. Just remeber it is a range, if that is what develops. If it is a range, you your long set ups at the bottom of the range, not the top, and you want your sells at the top of the range. Beware of trades in either direction that are well in the middle of the range (anyway, that is how I do it). If a trend develops, take your trades in the direction of the trend.

Watch yesterday's low especially. An early break there that has follow through after the break could indicate an early trend developing (even if it reverses into an uptrend.

I'll be trading all day today, but I have no problem keeping out of the market until 2 PM EDT if no set ups develop. I can always talk to you guys lol
  • #11,395
  • Mar 20, 2019 6:18am Mar 20, 2019 6:18am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} this documentary kind of explains that volume "interest" precede price (at minute 25:32) Time is the definite starting point. Then it seems that volume comes before price. Price is the final settlement in everything, how can it precede anything?
Nothing happens without a trade. There is no volume without a trade. There are no traders without a trade. Nothing starts without a trade. There is no trade in the absence of price. Price is agreed to, and it is the market at the moment. Price is truth. Follow price.
  • #11,396
  • Mar 20, 2019 7:51am Mar 20, 2019 7:51am
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} Nothing happens without a trade. There is no volume without a trade. There are no traders without a trade. Nothing starts without a trade. There is no trade in the absence of price. Price is agreed to, and it is the market at the moment. Price is truth. Follow price.
Since you're a fan of Douglas, here are some excerpts from trading in the zone that supports my position that "interest"/volume/time precedes price, and that price is nothing more than an end result of all the variables acting on it. Price is the result; I'm not saying price is not the truth, but it's not the whole truth. The whole truth behind the market is found not in just price, but in the engine that moves it.

When prices move, that movement represents the collective actions of everyone participating at that moment.

Individual traders act as a force on prices, making them move by either bidding a price up or offering it lower.

Then he explained that if the market went down to the price level he calculated as support, his calculations indicated that would also be the low of the day. As they sat there, the bean market was slowly trending down to the price the analyst said would be the support, or low, of the day. When it finally got there, the chairman looked over to the analyst and said, "This is where the market is supposed to stop and go higher, right?" The analyst responded, "Absolutely! This is the low of the day." "That's bullshit!" the chairman retorted. "Watch this." He picked up the phone, called one of the clerks handling orders for the soybean pit, and said, "Sell two million beans (bushels) at the market." Within thirty seconds after he placed the order, the soybean market dropped ten cents a bushel. The chairman turned to look at the horrified expression on the analysts face. Calmly, he asked, "Now, where did you say the market was going to stop? If I can do that, anyone can."

Remember that there are only two forces that cause prices to move: traders who believe the markets are going up, and traders who believe the markets are going down. At any given moment, we can see who has the stronger conviction by observing where the market is now relative to where it was at some previous moment

This particular part makes a lot of sense.Human behavior is highly predictive, many studies have proven this. However, on individual levels, it's 50/50. So when Douglas claims an individual trader can indeed throw your trading model off, i think it's true. We call that anamolies in trading, but that of course doesn't happen ALL the time

Technical analysis has been around for as long as there have been organized markets in the form of exchanges. But the trading community didn't accept technical analysis as a viable tool for making money until the late 1970s or early 1980s. Here's what the technical analyst knew that it took the mainstream market community generations to catch on to. A finite number of traders participate in the markets on any given day, week, or month. Many of these traders do the same lands of things over and over in their attempt to make money. In other words, individuals develop behavior patterns, and a group of individuals, interacting with one another on a consistent basis, form collective behavior patterns. These behavior patterns are observable and quantifiable, and they repeat themselves with statistical reliability.

Technical analysis is a method that organizes this collective behavior into identifiable patterns that can give a clear indication of when there is a greater probability of one thing happening over another. In a sense, technical analysis allows you to get into the mind of the market to anticipate what's likely to happen next, based on the kind of patterns the market generated at some previous moment. As a method for projecting future price movement, technical analysis has turned out to be far superior to a purely fundamental approach. It keeps the trader focused on what the market is doing now in relation to what it has done in the past, instead of focusing on what the market should be doing based solely on what is logical and reasonable as determined by a mathematical model. On the other hand, fundamental analysis creates what I call a "reality gap" between "what should be" and "what is."

The reality gap makes it extremely difficult to make anything but very long-term predictions that can be difficult to exploit, even if they are correct. In contrast, technical analysis not only closes this reality gap, but also makes available to the trader a virtually unlimited number of possibilities to take advantage of. The technical approach opens up many more possibilities because it identifies how the same repeatable behavior patterns occur in every time frame—moment-tomoment, daily, weekly, yearly, and every time span in between. In other words, technical analysis turns the market into an endless stream of opportunities to enrich oneself.
  • #11,397
  • Mar 20, 2019 8:30am Mar 20, 2019 8:30am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} Since you're a fan of Douglas, here are some excerpts from trading in the zone that supports my position that "interest"/volume/time precedes price ...
Douglas is one who would argue that price is truth - in fact, he said it before Brooks. You and I will have to disagree on this, as you are coming at this from a perspective outside of the market. You will not agree, but it is the case.

You can't show me chart with a volume bar has data printed with no trade having taken place. To say there are market participants is a tautology and tells us nothing as to the level the market is trading at or will trade at. "Interest" is not merely, "Yeah, I'm interested." Interest, in reference to the market, indicates a stake has been taken by participating in a trade.

I do not know what you seek to accomplish by insisting on the pre-existence of "participants" and "the existence of time." Until there is a trade, your participants have no market interest, there is no volume to show on the volume bar. Until there is a trade ata price, your participants are not participants at all - they are observers of others making trades at most, and many are merely by-standers.

We do not place an order because there is that guy standing over there thinking about placing a trade. We place our orders based on price. If volume or participation was all that mattered, or even had the priority you assert, then someone should be able to demonstrate a consistently profitable trading plan that trades based solely on volume and open interest information yet completely ignores price. Such a system does not exist. However, the majority of profitable day traders are profitable in spite of completely ignoring volume. And again, there is no trade volume without a trade. There is no trade without a buyer and a seller first agreeing to, and then executing a transaction, based on price.
  • #11,398
  • Mar 20, 2019 8:42am Mar 20, 2019 8:42am
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} Douglas is one who would argue that price is truth - in fact, he said it before Brooks. You and I will have to disagree on this, as you are coming at this from a perspective outside of the market. You will not agree, but it is the case. You can't show me chart with a volume bar has data printed with no trade having taken place. To say there are market participants is a tautology and tells us nothing as to the level the market is trading at or will trade at. "Interest" is not merely, "Yeah, I'm interested." Interest, in reference to the market,...
Inserted Video


the good thing about forum is you can discuss opposing views, but at some point you realize that you're at a standstill. lets agree to disagree...

Quoting ddaytrader
{quote}However, the majority of profitable day traders are profitable in spite of completely ignoring volume.
as michael from the office would say to Oscar

you're making some very dangerous assumptions
  • #11,399
  • Mar 20, 2019 8:50am Mar 20, 2019 8:50am
let's settle on "Naked" comes first before anything :-)
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Staying in my lane...
  • #11,400
  • Mar 20, 2019 8:57am Mar 20, 2019 8:57am
Hey CG, we need you back around here some day drawing your channels . . : )

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