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Plan the Trade

  • #11,361
  • Mar 19, 2019 12:27pm Mar 19, 2019 12:27pm
Quoting Rmg
{quote} I use 5smma channels to catch the micro trends in 30sec or any time frame. You could see my charts in this very thread before I was asked to not post any longer.
Who told you not to post here?
  • #11,362
  • Mar 19, 2019 12:30pm Mar 19, 2019 12:30pm
Quoting Rmg
{quote} I use 5sma channels to catch the micro trends in 30sec or any time frame. You could see my charts in this very thread before I was asked to not post any longer.
Well you obviously ignored the advice, I may have even got the idea from you so apologies . Not everyone can see the swings, Harold used to use a 10 sma in the early days of forex.

I tried sma's with a BB set at 50 to see the extremes, some success with 123 breaks. It is the closest I got when using indicators.
'in less than half an hour he made over 100 ticks'
  • #11,363
  • Mar 19, 2019 12:53pm Mar 19, 2019 12:53pm
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} Who told you not to post here?
Doesn't matter it was just rants.
on a postive roll...
  • #11,364
  • Mar 19, 2019 1:02pm Mar 19, 2019 1:02pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I think you will really enjoy this post from AO and his 3 market structure models. From a quantitative analysis standpoint, what he has written is legit imo. Perhaps, it could help chartists to keep the overall structure in mind.

"TIME IS THE KEY!
TIME DETERMINES PRICE! (Not the other way)"

That was as far as I could go. I agree with Al Brooks on this one: "Price is truth." I can't be long or short time, but I can be long or short a price.

I'm not the first to say this to you, but it is an avoidable conclusion: I think you are simply over thinking this.

The market is not an engineering problem.

This is an auction. Most amateur traders never become aware of it as it is, as an auction, because we experience the market like a video game, rather than experiencing it for what it is - it is an auction on which the hopes and dreams and fears and the greed and grasping-ness of millions is reflected in the current tic.

Think about how you feel when a price is going against you: Do you observe it dispassionately?

Likely not.

How about when it is ticking closer and closer to your profit target but continually pulling up a bit short - Do you feel yourself urging it on, do you feel the frustration when again it tickles you target but does not fill? Many, if not most of us, do these things.

Those whose hopes do not rise with each tick up or down while in a trade have adopted and trained themselves to think in probabilities. Your quest for binary certainties is prima facie evidence that you are not thinking in probabilities, but in terms of right or wrong.

Price is truth. Price, on the very next tick can do only one of three things, it can be higher, lower, or the same. When price is at support, it is more likely to do which of the three? Go higher. Does it always? No, of course not. But it does 60% of the time or more. And when the trend is up, it is probably closer to 80%.

When price trades to resistance, is it more likely to go up, down, or stay the same? Probably a 60% of the time it goes down. During a downtrend, probably 80% chance of down.

Price is truth. It reveals itself to us at certain levels known as support where demand for shares or futures contracts or one currency over another outstrips the supply of willing sellers at that price.

Price is truth. It reveals itself to us at certain levels known as resistance where demand for shares or futures contracts or one currency over dries up, and the supply of willing sellers overwhelms those wanting to buy.

Price will sometimes vacillate around a support or resistance level, waffling about either side of that formerly "significant" level. Why? Why is it doing that? Because the market is in balance. It will be temporary. Perhaps there is a great deal of momentary uncertainty by either side - whatever the reason, the bulls and the bears are in balance. At some point, one side becomes emboldened. It will try to push price beyond that resistance. A breakout! But, often, the other side will awaken from their balanced rest, and push back. Does the breakout continue, or is price again forced back into its range, or, even breakout in the direction opposite the initial attempt?

The market is people.

And Price is truth. We make money when we allow it to reveal its intentions to us and we follow the truth.
  • #11,365
  • Mar 19, 2019 1:04pm Mar 19, 2019 1:04pm
Quoting Rmg
{quote} Doesn't matter it was just rants.
I don't see that there is anyone here who can ask anyone else to stop posting in this thread except for CG. If CG tells me to quit it and get my own thread, I'll do so. Everyone else can go pound sand. You should post here if you think it would be useful to you or us, imo.
  • #11,366
  • Mar 19, 2019 1:11pm Mar 19, 2019 1:11pm
buy lower sell higher. we are selling and buying price you can't even buy time exercising we all gonna die
  • #11,367
  • Edited 1:53pm Mar 19, 2019 1:37pm | Edited 1:53pm
Just a lot of observation and testing to get a method and a lot of observation and self discovery to stick to it. That would be the time aspect.
  • #11,368
  • Mar 19, 2019 1:49pm Mar 19, 2019 1:49pm
when people begin to search for a method to exploit the market they take there ideas and backrest to see if first there viable and of course a good probability if they find this they set up Mm and risk then when that's in place they sim it and after a month we where there at THEN TRADE IT.
  • #11,369
  • Mar 19, 2019 1:49pm Mar 19, 2019 1:49pm
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} I don't see that there is anyone here who can ask anyone else to stop posting in this thread except for CG. If CG tells me to quit it and get my own thread, I'll do so. Everyone else can go pound sand. You should post here if you think it would be useful to you or us, imo.
Supply and demand is the method discussed here, mine is moving average system, only common thing was Nq. Also people beleives trading futures markets are far more superior than other derivatives. Still struggling to find consistency in my approach to using my system.
on a postive roll...
  • #11,370
  • Mar 19, 2019 2:14pm Mar 19, 2019 2:14pm
This was one of my favourite threads for supply and demand,

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=309766

But then he went on to volume and I was still messing about with forex. It was a really good thread for me though, I often pop back there from time to time.

Don't know if you ever visited it Hilmy? Toward the end, he started down the market profile route and some advanced vwap stuff. Kin prices in bars and stuff. Blew my tiny mind!
'in less than half an hour he made over 100 ticks'
  • #11,371
  • Mar 19, 2019 2:17pm Mar 19, 2019 2:17pm
Quoting Rmg
{quote} Supply and demand is the method discussed here, mine is moving average system, only common thing was Nq. Also people beleives trading futures markets are far more superior than other derivatives. Still struggling to find consistency in my approach to using my system.
It is all supply and demand as far as I am concerned. If you think your ma’s are not related to supply/demand then you have another thing coming!

Futures are are superior to any broker dependent trading vehicle in that with futures, it is you against your ego and the market. With cfd’s Etc. it is you against your ego, the market, and your broker ... and your broker gets to see the cards before you, unfortunately.

if you can gain access to a futures broker, you will put the odds more in favor of your success than they are if you are trading bucketed orders.
  • #11,372
  • Mar 19, 2019 2:56pm Mar 19, 2019 2:56pm
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} "TIME IS THE KEY! TIME DETERMINES PRICE! (Not the other way)" That was as far as I could go. I agree with Al Brooks on this one: "Price is truth." I can't be long or short time, but I can be long or short a price. I'm not the first to say this to you, but it is an avoidable conclusion: I think you are simply over thinking this. The market is not an engineering problem. This is an auction. Most amateur traders never become aware of it as it is, as an auction, because we experience the market like a video game, rather than experiencing it...
Price is not the whole truth, it's 1/3rd of the truth

Three variables make up the market (you can consider the 4th being the participants).

Time, volume, and price (in that order of importance in my opinion)

Time being the first important variable because it's what i call a "regulation" variable. It's the variable that determines the "start" and "end" time in regulated markets. It's the variable that regulates news releases (it's why you don't see periodic news releases at 9:32 for example). And there is such thing as universal timeframes where the big boys will participate in the market (and they're not looking to enter exit on these micro timescales)

Volume is the driving force before price makes its move. It tells you the sentiment behind the price (who is in control). It distinguishes importance between one price over the other

Then finally, comes the good ol price itself. It's the variable that determines the final settlement between two parties. But on it's own, it means absolutely nothing without the first two variables.

And as dd said, there is the 4th variable which is the participants (this includes you!).

The market reflects real life auction; from the simplest of buying something in the store to more significant process of buying big assets like car/house. Each auction is regulated by time,volume, and price.

For example:

If i tell you that the price of strawberries is $3, does it help you in making any sort of conclusion about that price of strawberries? Probably not. What will help you more likely are questions like, what is the "fair" value of strawberries last few weeks? (what has most people paid for? (volume), Is it in season? (time), and and is it on sale? (current price relative to prior price)
https://s.giannini.ucop.edu/uploads/...e6/v15n6_4.pdf

My point is, this applies to all commodities we buy and sell, it's not just looking at price.

I think the problem with current amateur trading education is that it focuses too much on the 3rd variable (price) and not enough on the first two (time and volume). Even if you put things like bollinger bands or moving averages or trend lines-those derivative indicators only look at price. So what happens is that you trade off one piece of information and ignoring the first two.
  • #11,373
  • Mar 19, 2019 3:00pm Mar 19, 2019 3:00pm
Quoting Rmg
{quote} Supply and demand is the method discussed here, mine is moving average system, only common thing was Nq. Also people beleives trading futures markets are far more superior than other derivatives. Still struggling to find consistency in my approach to using my system.
Heads-up bro... a traditional "rant" is coming your way lol

CFDs are the biggest joke of the century when it comes to trading. It took me one single trade in WTI about 5-6 yrs ago with a no-name offshore broker to come to that realization. I enter a trade and right away the spread will widen instantaneously and price will literally just STOP for 15-30 seconds. I did try 3 trades before firming my conclusion never to touch that shit again! No one can win trading against your "broker" in the long haul. Just a waste of time imo.
Staying in my lane...
  • #11,374
  • Mar 19, 2019 3:04pm Mar 19, 2019 3:04pm
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} It is all supply and demand as far as I am concerned. If you think your ma’s are not related to supply/demand then you have another thing coming! Futures are are superior to any broker dependent trading vehicle in that with futures, it is you against your ego and the market. With cfd’s Etc. it is you against your ego, the market, and your broker ... and your broker gets to see the cards before you, unfortunately. if you can gain access to a futures broker, you will put the odds more in favor of your success than they are if you are trading...
I care less to see where S/d, I just follow the channel.. that's all i need as far as my concern, i am sure i can withdraw money from my bucketshop broker and tax free, dutyfree, no charting fees or anyother f****g fees
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on a postive roll...
  • #11,375
  • Mar 19, 2019 3:15pm Mar 19, 2019 3:15pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} Price is not the whole truth, it's 1/3rd of the truth Three variables make up the market (you can consider the 4th being the participants). Time, volume, and price (in that order of importance in my opinion) Time being the first important variable because it's what i call a "regulation" variable. It's the variable that determines the "start" and "end" time in regulated markets. It's the variable that regulates news releases (it's why you don't see periodic news releases at 9:32 for example). And there is such thing as universal timeframes...
Nicely done! I have yet to tackle volume (outside of good old vwap, cumulative volume and some bid/ask volume delta). Agree that past volume (based on time and sales) could be a leading indication of buyer/seller strength in forming a directional bias BUT I am still puzzled by which comes first? Price or Volume? It remains in-conclusive to me reading the DOM and limit order volume we all get to see centrally. That shit can go up and down rapidly and then everything goes haywire once a large market order enters the market crushing all the liquidity. I have yet to devote looking for any edge but fear I won't find much there. Price can also move volume i.e. a limited time discount offered by a retailer could generate volume of buyers as an example. Frankly, TIME and VOLATILITY cannot be separated. They have to (or usually) go hand in hand. Time is the key ingredient to all things Options which are a primary vehicle to hedge exposure so Time simply cannot be ignored from any trading strategy imo.
Staying in my lane...
  • #11,376
  • Mar 19, 2019 3:19pm Mar 19, 2019 3:19pm
Try Range Bars and forget time
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #11,377
  • Mar 19, 2019 3:28pm Mar 19, 2019 3:28pm
Quoting Divergence
{image}
Hi, Divergence:

Thank you for your reply! Just want to clarify something with you:

 

  1. What is your SL & TP on this ‘2b’ setup?
  2. For all these ‘2b’ & ‘123’ setups, how do you get in the market? Do you just set pending limit orders at your desired levels (and hope for the best), or do you use any kind of price action confirmation (like candlestick patterns, etc)?


Thank you for your time!

Shuo

  • #11,378
  • Mar 19, 2019 3:30pm Mar 19, 2019 3:30pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Nicely done! I have yet to tackle volume (outside of good old vwap, cumulative volume and some bid/ask volume delta). Agree that past volume (based on time and sales) could be a leading indication of buyer/seller strength in forming a directional bias BUT I am still puzzled by which comes first? Price or Volume? It remains in-conclusive to me reading the DOM and limit order volume we all get to see centrally. That shit can go up and down rapidly and then everything goes haywire once a large market order enters the market crushing all the...
this documentary kind of explains that volume "interest" precede price (at minute 25:32). You can't get any more pure of a marketplace than the pits back in the day.

Inserted Video


Time is the definite starting point. Then it seems that volume comes before price.

Price is the final settlement in everything, how can it precede anything? There has to be bids/offers for price to move anywhere. Just because volume is not "registered" on the DOM, doesn't mean it's not there. The interest is what drives it. At least this is how i understand it.
  • #11,379
  • Mar 19, 2019 3:33pm Mar 19, 2019 3:33pm
Quoting zhangshuo
{quote} Hi, Divergence: Thank you for your reply! Just want to clarify something with you: What is your SL & TP on this ‘2b’ setup? For all these ‘2b’ & ‘123’ setups, how do you get in the market? Do you just set pending limit orders at your desired levels (and hope for the best), or do you use any kind of price action confirmation (like candlestick patterns, etc)? Thank you for your time! Shuo
Not to be rude at all.If you take time to look back at earlier posts its all there said many times and also videos posted that are on Youtube explaining real time
Insanityoing same ting over expecting different results..Einstein
  • #11,380
  • Mar 19, 2019 3:46pm Mar 19, 2019 3:46pm
Quoting zhangshuo
{quote} Hi, Divergence: Thank you for your reply! Just want to clarify something with you: What is your SL & TP on this ‘2b’ setup? For all these ‘2b’ & ‘123’ setups, how do you get in the market? Do you just set pending limit orders at your desired levels (and hope for the best), or do you use any kind of price action confirmation (like candlestick patterns, etc)? Thank you for your time! Shuo
2B 123 are entered after they break and pullback entry via pending limit order on pullbacks with the trend i want to see a thrust bar stop is 12 target 25
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