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What works, and what doesn't

  • #421
  • Mar 8, 2019 4:44pm Mar 8, 2019 4:44pm
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} Very by the looks of it
yea yea , where's your averaging down / MG / no sl account ? c'mon man..
  • #422
  • Mar 9, 2019 1:23am Mar 9, 2019 1:23am
When I first posted on the thread, I had definite ideas about the failure of indicators to deliver over many years.

My post was bordering on arrogant. Currently I am working my way through that large piece of humble pie, because I have been shown an alternative method of trading:

ie " If you want a better guide (the best 14 bucks you will ever spend) https://www.udemy.com/learn-to-trade-the-news/ "

Currently working through that, and will not mention it again here, since the mention of links draws swift and harsh criticism.

I realise that there are many ways to trade - a few do work despite being wide apart in approach - eg time frame and indicators.
Others seem stuck in a groove, and despite much head-banging and wringing-of-hands, just do not seem to move traders to a happy place.

I am very pleased I came here, and thank those who initially ticked me off for what I said.
I wish everyone well. We all deserve to find out what works and what doesn't.

Keep asking those questions ... and when you find your edge - develop it.
  • #423
  • Mar 9, 2019 4:45pm Mar 9, 2019 4:45pm
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} If i have offended you please accept my oligopolies. It is a case of seeing so much rubbish spoken in the retail side of trading that ultimately leads to widespread failure. This is why I used profanity as it really winds me up reading comments where there is assumption disguised as truth. So lets get on with the subject then and put the rest aside. I have been working with traders and analysts for years with a keen interest in the market since puberty. My first role on a trading floor was working with analysts on their research and moved...
I went through some of the scenarios you mentioned about how you got started too. Brokerage firms, trading floor and news/gossip cycles etc. right out of high school. There was this one department in the company where a set of guys that called themselves 'traders' worked. Their only job was to execute trades on behalf of the broker/clients. They had no time to watch news or get involved in any market research. They could only gain insight to what was going on in the market by watching the pace of price movements in various stocks and the amount of interest each stock attracted and the volume on the trades that was affected due to how 'hot' the stock was at the time. They made plenty of money by jumping on the bandwagon and sneaking in their own orders which was probably against the rules.

We are doing the same thing they were doing now. By 'we' I mean traders that are not so focused on the fundamentals and news and announcements. We are trading the 'hot' markets. we don't care who said what and who did what. We jump on and off trades based on all that others are doing to them to make them hop. It is not necessarily about scalping either. Swing trading is also possible without much attention to news and fundamentals although you have to know how to fix a bad trade no matter what your style.

Notice that I am not refuting YOUR WAY of making money in the markets. All is well. I am glad you have found your niche. But to say that nothing works other than the way you have found it to work and giving it out as advice to the people that are looking for ways to succeed is not correct. The fact that the firms you visited were keen on news trading isn't proof that news trading is the only way to go. You are the one who posted the video of the black swan event at the I think Binary Option firm. You know that even people that trade their proven ways for years can fail miserably one day.

I am glad you are doing well but like someone said once, there are a million ways to trade and your preferred way is just one of them.
  • #424
  • Mar 9, 2019 4:51pm Mar 9, 2019 4:51pm
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} yea yea , where's your averaging down / MG / no sl account ? c'mon man..
lol...yes. Is this the same guy or his account got hijacked? .
  • #425
  • Edited 3:07am Mar 10, 2019 12:46am | Edited 3:07am
Quoting OutThere
{quote} I went through some of the scenarios you mentioned about how you got started too. Brokerage firms, trading floor and news/gossip cycles etc. right out of high school. There was this one department in the company where a set of guys that called themselves 'traders' worked. Their only job was to execute trades on behalf of the broker/clients. They had no time to watch news or get involved in any market research. They could only gain insight to what was going on in the market by watching the pace of price movements in various stocks and the...

Where did i say it's the only profitable way of trading?

Also, I didn't visit firms I worked at them. As for disagrreeing the way I am helping others how to trade, you really need to put it into context of the market and not refer to a strategy that only works in the stock market. The forex market is governed by fundamentals, period. I have never seen a professional trader that doesn't use it to find opportunities in the fx market. I have yet to see evidence of anyone being successful trading pure technicals long term. If it were that simple then why don't investment banks and hedge funds save, in some cases millions, in fees for news terminals.
  • #426
  • Mar 10, 2019 4:43am Mar 10, 2019 4:43am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} Where did i say it's the only profitable way of trading? Also, I didn't visit firms I worked at them. As for disagrreeing the way I am helping others how to trade, you really need to put it into context of the market and not refer to a strategy that only works in the stock market. The forex market is governed by fundamentals, period. I have never seen a professional trader that doesn't use it to find opportunities in the fx market. I have yet to see evidence of anyone being successful trading pure technicals long term. If it were that simple...
Alright you didn't say it outright but you implied it. You were into technicals, were unsuccessful, you asked the firms how they did technicals, they laughed, told you to look at their screens, hardly any charts but full of news. it opened your eyes And now everyone should know news is the way to go cause technicals didn't work for you and the professionals and news is the way to go. I don't recall you mentioning any other way. So 2 ways you mentioned. One is crap and one is gold. Same thing as saying it is the only way if there are 2 choices given.

This is stupid...I don't want to repeat, rephrase or redraw conclusions from your statements. So I take it back if I accused you of saying news is the only way to trade profitably. I guess you maybe saying there are other ways but you prefer news cause big boys are doing it.

Some trader got mad at me for trying to understand his point of view by rephrasing him in order to understand him better. I feel I am on a slippery slope now. Whatever you said and whatever the very capable and intelligent people reading your statement conclude by reading it is in fact what was meant to be communicated.
  • #427
  • Mar 13, 2019 12:18am Mar 13, 2019 12:18am
I know a lot of professional traders... they all have their own edge. They all trade different...
There is no secret professional method.
Just be yourself, and duplicate the types of trades that work for you.
Don't try to duplicate somebody else's style pip for pip.

Another month of wins
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The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #428
  • Mar 13, 2019 12:47am Mar 13, 2019 12:47am
News spikes are often due to lack of liquidity.. Not massive buying or selling.
Most traders look at the huge spikes and say.. Those are the pips I want.. But they are the hardest pips to make...
and if your wrong, you can be extremely wrong.. because market can jump right over your order... and you can get 20,30, 40 pips slippage on your stop.
Being a good trader is taking managed risks, how do you manage risk when you don't know how much slippage you will get.

I never trade the news.. cuz i'd be pissed off losing 60 pips in 1 min.

Often times news will do exact opposite of what you think it will do.
There will be great news come out... It will spike up 8 pips... then drop 60, so fast you will be stunned.
I'm sure a lot of you know what i'm talking about..

I try to place trades when volatility is big enough to make a decent profit.
but not so volatile that i'm taking too much rusk..
and not dead or grindy, with 4 pip hourly candles, where it might take 30 mins just to cover my spread.
This requires a lot of sitting and waiting for conditions to be just right..
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #429
  • Mar 13, 2019 1:07am Mar 13, 2019 1:07am
A little scalp i did in Asian session..
g/j was already down.. u/j was falling..
I figured e/j would be next..
My risk was small so I decided to risk a few pips to fill the liquidity gap (spike) up.
Spikes up aren't strong they are weak!.. So i love to short into them!


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Notice what happened with the 2 spikes up earlier in the session? Yes they fell right back down! (like a rock)
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #430
  • Mar 22, 2019 11:53am Mar 22, 2019 11:53am
I do not know how, but I ended up with 1TF scalping this week and I mostly caught those spikes, which is hard to predict when it will happen, but when it happens, it's easy to use them...


These are the results, fast scalping for a few minutes, weird...

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  • #431
  • Mar 25, 2019 9:02am Mar 25, 2019 9:02am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} Don't be disheartened, all retail traders are faced with an ocean of shit and left for themselves to decide. If i can give you a glimmer of hope it is that you do not need a degree to relearn how to trade. Take your experience to date as merit to perseverance and dedication to making it a success. all you need is 3 months to get rolling on a new trading journey. Letting go of charts will actually be a relief i assure you because its smoke and mirrors. You can fit any narrative to a chart and repetition of structure is like a dangling carrot....
Hello Eco! Thanks very much for all this informative posts you are giving us and for trying to be so detailed with your explanations on how you approach the markets. It is well known that most pro traders use fundamentals, but there are also some that use a more technical approach. I am following your threads because I am very interested in the way you trade, so I will be following you and also I might take that courses on UDEMY.

I lived in Taiwan where most of people seem to like the technical way of trading, and I have met a few pro traders that do so. Also many who try to combine both, tech and fundamentals.
At this point I was just starting my trading journey so I was still a very inmature trader.

I am a more on the technical side, but just because I havent spent the time to learn fundamentals. I have tried all indicators and strategies you can imagine... At the end of the day, the best way I found for trading is: HAVING NO STRATEGY... Just trade naked chart and trade what you see. I realized this whenever I spot a really good setup, almost obvious (for people who spent infinite hours looking at charts) BUT didnt take the trade because it wasnt part of my strategy, or wasnt in my set of rules...

So one day I decided to trade only the obvious.... For this I needed to work on my PATIENCE, and learn how to control my anxiety for trading... I have about 25 pairs of currencies, some commodities, indexes and even some stocks. I just take from 6 to 8 trades a month.. thats all I need. I have some loses because I make some mistakes sometimes. But ever since I started this way I am on the profit side.. NOT HUGE profit.. but profit. So thats why I thank you for your time... I would like to try your approach so I might add some extra % every month.

I give you some examples of what I call OBVIOUS trades:

Whenever I see this long wick candles in some specific areas, specially on a possible reversal of a trend... thats what I like the most. I feel that something must be going on in the market and its represented on the charts.

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This one I wasnt very sure but prices was being rejected every day and with the fourth consecutive pin bar I just decided to give it a try.

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I BELIEVE THAT MOST TECHNICAL TRADERS PROBLEM IS THE URGE THEY HAVE TO TRADE AND MAKE PROFIT... LIKE IF THERE WAS SOMEONE POINTING A GUN ON THEIR HEADS MAKING THEM TRADE...... JUST HAVE SOME PATIENCE, WAIT FOR THE OBVIOUS SETUP.
  • #432
  • Mar 25, 2019 9:52am Mar 25, 2019 9:52am
Quoting guiyee
{quote} Hello Eco! Thanks very much for all this informative posts you are giving us and for trying to be so detailed with your explanations on how you approach the markets. It is well known that most pro traders use fundamentals, but there are also some that use a more technical approach. I am following your threads because I am very interested in the way you trade, so I will be following you and also I might take that courses on UDEMY. I lived in Taiwan where most of people seem to like the technical way of trading, and I have met a few pro traders...

hi guiyee

I see you prefer daily setups in which case intraday sentiment is not really going to help you as it can ebb and flow across sessions on the same day. What i would be looking at if i were in your shoes in terms of overlapping is adding a simple interest rate path to your filters. As you can see in this overlay chart of the federal funds rate and USD. If you used the path of rates as a filter for only taking trades in that direction then you will be on the right side of the market given you have a way of entering at appropriate times. I prefer to be flat at the end of each day so as to reduce overnight risk and also avoid rollover costs.
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  • #433
  • Mar 26, 2019 3:57pm Mar 26, 2019 3:57pm
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} If you believe these 5 points don't work, you are obviously at the beginning of your trading learning process. What doesn't work for you is not necessary true for everyone ...
Exactly what I had in mind, I mean the market revolves around these points here, and you must know how to go about them if you must profit.
  • #434
  • Mar 26, 2019 9:46pm Mar 26, 2019 9:46pm
What doesn't work? letting your losers run and cutting your winners short
What does work? letting your average winner be much greater than your losing trades. How? Trail your winning trades and get out of your trade when your reason for entry is no longer valid.
  • #435
  • Edited 5:35am Apr 21, 2019 5:24am | Edited 5:35am
Cut your losers short and let winners run.. biggest myth in trading!
Nice idea... But very hard to execute..
Its often "greed thinking" believing can do this consistently.

Price likes to consolidate 80% of the time.
so chances are you will have several small losses before you get one that runs away and makes you 5 times the risk.

As you see by the chart trying to get an entry and make 3- 5 times your risk with a tight stop is pretty hard. Because price is retesting all the levels over and over for days and days!.

Often it easier to to a 1risk :1Reward trade.. Then to catch that one great trade that is 1risk:5reward
Market gives 1:1 trades daily.. And if you only pick the best entry points you can be profitable.
Can you have a 3 pip stop and make 1000 pips? YES!!! Chances of it happening... VERY VERY ULTRA UBER LOW.

Look at the market Realistically and make realistic decisions..

chart shows that price usually consolidates for days before the big move..
Often stoping out people who think they got a small risk for huge reward.

Most trades are not gonna be huge winners.
Don't let losers run!
This is how you make consistent profit by having realistic expectations.

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The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #436
  • Apr 21, 2019 5:44am Apr 21, 2019 5:44am
My april so far

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The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #437
  • Apr 21, 2019 6:25am Apr 21, 2019 6:25am
A wise person often said, "if you have an edge, nobody can duplicate it."

The truth is Trading is 80% screen time and watching markets day after day.
10% your system
and 10% a fight with your demons. (bad habbits)

I can show you what works for me.. but that doesn't mean it will work for you.
It just gives you something to think about incorporating into your system if its clicking in your brain.
But your system will end up being totally different then mine in many ways.
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #438
  • Apr 21, 2019 6:25pm Apr 21, 2019 6:25pm
Quoting bloodpoodle
Cut your losers short and let winners run.. biggest myth in trading! Nice idea... But very hard to execute.. Its often "greed thinking" believing can do this consistently. Price likes to consolidate 80% of the time. so chances are you will have several small losses before you get one that runs away and makes you 5 times the risk. As you see by the chart trying to get an entry and make 3- 5 times your risk with a tight stop is pretty hard. Because price is retesting all the levels over and over for days and days!. Often it easier to to a 1risk :1Reward...
I've seen many numbers floating around on how much the market consolidates or trends. The number all depends on what instrument and time horizon are we looking at?
It has been proven in several studies that markets tend to go above 3 standard deviations far more often than a normal distribution curve. Usually, it causes the market to go longer or shorter than the traders or investors think. These trends occur on every timeframe, however, because of the increase of information flow and speed, the higher timeframes might not be as profitable as the 80's and '90s. Although that might change over the years.
I think the 1:1 Risk reward is appealing to many traders because of the minimal psychological effort. I believe this is where the edge is in the market. Trailing your profitable trades and letting them run longer than your losers is one of the difficult parts.
  • #439
  • Apr 23, 2019 5:21am Apr 23, 2019 5:21am
Once is a while a trade will run and keep running... but try to predict it with small risk is very hard....
then you end up chasing moves that left with out you, trying to hop on the train... only to buy the top.
or you buy a pull back.. but that pullback is deeper then you think.. and stopped out again ....
If your that good to be catching moves like that all the time.. Great.. You should be millionaire very quickly..
I just think your under estimating the odds of this happening in real life.
best of luck.

To other people:
in my opinion looking at the huge moves trying to catch them is far harder then catching the ups downs that happen every day.
If your focused on the huge moves and not having success... try playing the up and downs
When your focus shifts from looking at the huge news spikes... to the normal ups and downs (volatility)
A new world opens.
Try volatilty trading.. its much easier then catching that huge trend that all the books talk about!
Think differerent.
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #440
  • Apr 23, 2019 5:32am Apr 23, 2019 5:32am
Quoting bloodpoodle
Once is a while a trade will run and keep running... but try to predict it with small risk is very hard.... then you end up chasing moves that left with out you, trying to hop on the train... only to buy the top. or you buy a pull back.. but that pullback is deeper then you think.. and stopped out again .... If your that good to be catching moves like that all the time.. Great.. You should be millionaire very quickly.. I just think your under estimating the odds of this happening in real life. best of luck. To other people: in my opinion looking...

Mr Blood. Check out my PM please.
// Jim Ęgirson https://discord.gg/Dkm3demYsx
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