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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #44,941
  • Mar 7, 2019 1:23pm Mar 7, 2019 1:23pm
GBP/JPY Bat pattern
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  • #44,942
  • Mar 7, 2019 1:32pm Mar 7, 2019 1:32pm
Quoting andy.marvel
GBP/JPY Bat pattern {image}
How is your win rate by using this harmonic pattern which I guess is from Scott Gartney? (I am asking out of curiosity, because I never tried).
  • #44,943
  • Mar 7, 2019 1:57pm Mar 7, 2019 1:57pm
Quoting vonboettiche
Quick question: I just found Damian's part about longterm short term order flow, and the two aligning / not aligning. Can some of you experienced fellas tell me if I'm right with this: we have a long term expectation based on long-term chart order flow. We have short term expectations based on short term chart order flow. 1) If short term goes against long term, we typically expect a complex correction? 2) What is the significance of trading against the long term order flow? Best and <3
long term expectation are the big yellow lines. The red lines are short term PA (against longer term orderflow). The longs after "1" (short term longs or 1 long "longer term" are again in line with longer term expectation of a new NSH.
Hope this helps.
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  • #44,944
  • Mar 7, 2019 2:08pm Mar 7, 2019 2:08pm
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} long term expectation are the big yellow lines. The red lines are short term PA (against longer term orderflow). The longs after "1" (short term longs or 1 long "longer term" are again in line with longer term expectation of a new NSH. Hope this helps. {image}
Thanks for the graph. If the short-term (intra-day) order flow is against the long term order flow, do you guys still trade it? Should it be avoided? In my opinion it seems that both could / should be traded: the ratios of fullfilled and unfulfilled expectations should remain roughly the same. If this is the case, what is the benifit of trading with the long term order flow?
  • #44,945
  • Mar 7, 2019 2:12pm Mar 7, 2019 2:12pm
Quoting rabbitran
Hi folks, I have a question about further reading on Harmonics. 'The Harmonic Trader' is not in print (according to Amazon). Would you recommend Scott Carney's Harmonic Trading, Volume 1 and 2? I think there's a third now according to his web site. I am, of course, working through everything Damian has on offer here, plus all of your valuable contributions. But I'm new to this science and thought some support material could be helpful. Many thanks.
I do not know how new you are to this material.
In terms of trading harmonics in the sense of AB, CD moves + fib +... the theorie is well covered here. So enough theory, examples, videos, live stream,... which needs to be digested.

As far as I know, the mentioned books refers more to patterns like gartley, ....

Initially I came here to this thread to learn these patterns, but finally never learned them, because no need. Damians teaching gave me enough to be able to trade without knowing them. Now, I am too lazzy to learn them as an additional tool.
  • #44,946
  • Mar 7, 2019 2:15pm Mar 7, 2019 2:15pm
Quoting vonboettiche
Quick question: I just found Damian's part about longterm short term order flow, and the two aligning / not aligning. Can some of you experienced fellas tell me if I'm right with this: we have a long term expectation based on long-term chart order flow. We have short term expectations based on short term chart order flow. 1) If short term goes against long term, we typically expect a complex correction? 2) What is the significance of trading against the long term order flow? Best and <3
Hi, I think this video can answer your question. in the first 10 minutes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uv5MVAQf5q8&t=308s
Time is an illusion, timing is an art.
  • #44,947
  • Mar 7, 2019 2:17pm Mar 7, 2019 2:17pm
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} I do not know how new you are to this material. In terms of trading harmonics in the sense of AB, CD moves + fib +... the theorie is well covered here. So enough theory, examples, videos, live stream,... which needs to be digested. As far as I know, the mentioned books refers more to patterns like gartley, .... Initially I came here to this thread to learn these patterns, but finally never learned them, because no need. Damians teaching gave me enough to be able to trade without knowing them. Now, I am too lazzy to learn them as an additional...
I agree - I am following Damian's method, and I have absolutely no interest in these pattern I'm also familiar with harmonics, etc. - I'm not sure what this has to do with trading short-term order flow expectations against long term order flow expectations, as per my original question I mean absolutely no disrespect; I would just like a clear answer to my original question as I don't see any issue trading against long term order flow, but I would like some of the experienced fellas to give their opinions on this.

Best!
  • #44,948
  • Mar 7, 2019 2:18pm Mar 7, 2019 2:18pm
Quoting JeanValJean.
{quote} Hi, I think this video can answer your question. in the first 10 minutes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uv5MVAQf5q8&t=308s
Thanks man. Will have a look.!
  • #44,949
  • Mar 7, 2019 2:22pm Mar 7, 2019 2:22pm
Quoting vonboettiche
{quote} Thanks for the graph. If the short-term (intra-day) order flow is against the long term order flow, do you guys still trade it? Should it be avoided? In my opinion it seems that both could / should be traded: the ratios of fullfilled and unfulfilled expectations should remain roughly the same. If this is the case, what is the benifit of trading with the long term order flow?
Most of my trades are shorter term orderflow. So, I do not avoid them when I see a case for a trade.
The benefit of trading longer term is less frequent entries, bigger target (potential win) but do not forget that the stop loss becomes also bigger.
  • #44,950
  • Mar 7, 2019 2:31pm Mar 7, 2019 2:31pm
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} Most of my trades are shorter term orderflow. So, I do not avoid them when I see a case for a trade. The benefit of trading longer term is less frequent entries, bigger target (potential win) but do not forget that the stop loss becomes also bigger.
Best thread ever. Thanks, again!
  • #44,951
  • Mar 7, 2019 3:09pm Mar 7, 2019 3:09pm
Quoting vonboettiche
Quick question: I just found Damian's part about longterm short term order flow, and the two aligning / not aligning. Can some of you experienced fellas tell me if I'm right with this: we have a long term expectation based on long-term chart order flow. We have short term expectations based on short term chart order flow. 1) If short term goes against long term, we typically expect a complex correction? 2) What is the significance of trading against the long term order flow? Best and <3
1) No. At least I do not. I am expecting a complex correction after structure fails, high volatility market situations, price trading into key support/resistance areas...
2) Answered below.

Quote
If the short-term (intra-day) order flow is against the long term order flow, do you guys still trade it? Should it be avoided? In my opinion it seems that both could / should be traded: the ratios of fullfilled and unfulfilled expectations should remain roughly the same. If this is the case, what is the benifit of trading with the long term order flow?

Yes, of course I still trade it. I pick the orderflow I can afford taking the risk (SL) and where I feel comfortable trading (mostly 144T). Many times they both work into the same results or "merge" together, as I would call it. (2)Benefits of trading with the longer term should not bother you that much since you should concentrate on the orderflow you are trading. But of course, I for myself prefer situations where I have the "big picture" in mind, aligning with it. That happens when both orderflows "merge".
  • #44,952
  • Mar 7, 2019 3:37pm Mar 7, 2019 3:37pm
Quoting vonboettiche
{quote} I agree - I am following Damian's method, and I have absolutely no interest in these pattern I'm also familiar with harmonics, etc. - I'm not sure what this has to do with trading short-term order flow expectations against long term order flow expectations, as per my original question I mean absolutely no disrespect; I would just like a clear answer to my original question as I don't see any issue trading against long term order flow, but I would like some of the experienced fellas to give their opinions on this. ...
The quoted answer in your post was not for answering your question. I answered to Rabitran.
  • #44,953
  • Mar 7, 2019 3:46pm Mar 7, 2019 3:46pm
At one point I did some backtesting to find out if I had a better win% only trading the IOF on 144T/233T when it had the same directional expectation as the "intra-day" order flow, I found no statistical evidence that it was more likely to succeed. The only hesitation I ever have trading the IOF is when I'm trading into a boundary and you can ask evo, I still do that pretty often.

As an example trading into 25275 or 26238. You'll find however, that's exactly what the good breakout traders do, trade into those boundaries when they believe that boundary will break, so if you don't trade the IOF into boundaries, because its some impenetrable boundary, you're often going to miss being in a good IOF swing trade (before the breakout traders), and reap the benefits of the breakout (trailing runners)
  • #44,954
  • Mar 7, 2019 4:22pm Mar 7, 2019 4:22pm
Running some backtests the last few hours I also find no big difference (mainly EURUSD 233tick). Pretty exhausting though. Solid framework.
  • #44,955
  • Mar 7, 2019 9:14pm Mar 7, 2019 9:14pm
Quoting Pair-me-up
I think they have a fairly good chance to breach my supply / demand zone red box below by a tad or so. Time will tell. {image} {image}
Wow..what a fluke... that tad was no joke. Here it is on the smaller order flow.
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Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #44,956
  • Mar 7, 2019 9:28pm Mar 7, 2019 9:28pm
Quoting Pair-me-up
{quote} Wow..what a fluke... that tad was no joke. Here it is on the smaller order flow. {image}

I decided that now is the time to adjust my stops. If my stops are not hit tonight when the market opens my time, I just might manually close this and reopen some trades with the new contract that got rolled over already.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM 03-19 (240 Minute).png Size: 97 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NQ 03-19 (240 Minute).png Size: 88 KB
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #44,957
  • Mar 8, 2019 1:13am Mar 8, 2019 1:13am
Quoting Pair-me-up
{quote} I decided that now is the time to adjust my stops. If my stops are not hit tonight when the market opens my time, I just might manually close this and reopen some trades with the new contract that got rolled over already. {image} {image}
Short question: on what account size do you base your trades, because to be able to trade on NQ and YM at the same time with 16 lots and SL of 200+, the account needs to be big.
  • #44,958
  • Edited 9:13am Mar 8, 2019 6:00am | Edited 9:13am
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} Short question: on what account size do you base your trades, because to be able to trade on NQ and YM at the same time with 16 lots and SL of 200+, the account needs to be big.
You are totally correct. For overnight trades with that many contracts, the account size you mentioned is correct.

Right now I am testing some of my theories on the higher time frames. And I did grow my account to be able to practice with those contracts without getting wiped out.

From what I have been learning is that (I can only speak for myself) having confidence in the larger order flow, will hopefully help me to be more in tune with it, so when I start using the smaller order flow again, I don't have to hold it for weeks. I want to be like you (evocpr19). Get in, Get out, Get on with my life.

Also, in my view... having confidence in the expectation of the larger order flow, will hopefully give me more confidence if / when I decide to take counter trend trades on the lower order flow. Last year I worked on my querky math. ha ha ha This year my goal has been to fine tune my entries.... So, I have been working on some new formulas for entries. I don't have them perfected yet.. but getting pretty darn close thus far.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #44,959
  • Mar 8, 2019 9:20am Mar 8, 2019 9:20am
Quoting Pair-me-up
{quote} I decided that now is the time to adjust my stops. If my stops are not hit tonight when the market opens my time, I just might manually close this and reopen some trades with the new contract that got rolled over already. {image} {image}
Update: I am seeing if I can lure the bears into my next supply / demand zone. Time will tell.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM 03-19 (240 Minute).png Size: 55 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NQ 03-19 (240 Minute).png Size: 74 KB
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #44,960
  • Mar 8, 2019 9:28am Mar 8, 2019 9:28am
My brain lit on fire today. I tried moving all the way down to an 89 tick chart to find entries and once again I just didn't see anything. Is this a zone today? It looks like a zone to me, it has just been bouncing around 306-360 for the past hour or so. I don't understand how to trade these types of movements, and it's left me feeling frustrated. I remember Damian once saying something about a zone trading video, but I could never find it, nor do I know if it exists, does anyone have a link or insight as to how to approach these types of days?
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Click to Enlarge Name: YM 06-19 (233 Tick) 2019_03_08 (10_25_08 AM).png Size: 40 KB
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