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Fake Money’s Face Value Deceit
Posted on March 8, 2019 by MN Gordon
https://economicprism.com/wp-content...rnmentDebt.jpgShane Anthony Mele stumbled off the straight and narrow path many years ago. One bad decision here. Another there. And he was neck deep in the smelly stuff.

These missteps compounded over the years and also magnified his natural shortcomings. Namely, that he’s a thief and – to be polite – a moron. Recently the confluence of these two failings came together like a sewage spill to a river draining through the center of town.

Mele made a dishonest mistake. He failed to recognize that he’s not the only dishonest soul operating in a dishonest world. That is, he failed to comprehend the difference between face value and real value.

So it was, with dishonest intentions, that he burgled a rare coin collection with no clue what it was that he’d taken. To his soft and greedy mind all he saw was a hoard of coins with a face value of One Dollar. Thus, he redeemed them for cash. Zero Hedge offers the details:
“After stealing a rare coin collection from an elderly and disabled retiree, Shane Anthony Mele, dumped what their owner said was at least $33,000 worth of collectible coins down a Coin Star machine at a Florida supermarket and collected their face value, receiving about $30 – enough for a couple of 12 packs.”

A Downright Disgrace
Mele, no doubt, is a thief and a moron. He’s also a thief and a moron that got caught up in something he doesn’t understand. He may be dishonest. But the world he’s operating in is also dishonest.

Stealing someone else’s property and then reducing the spoils valued at $33,000 to a payout of about $30 is a remarkable achievement. Mele’s Coin Star transaction delivered a loss of over 99.9 percent. But he’s not alone…

The Federal Reserve, in concert with the U.S. Treasury, has been part of an extensive currency debasement program for over a century. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics very own inflation calculator, the Fed has succeeded at reducing the dollar’s value by about 96 percent. In other words, it takes a dollar today to buy what $0.04 could buy roughly 100 years ago.

This track record of wealth destruction, on a percent basis, is nearly equivalent with Mele’s Coin Star transaction. However, on a total basis, the Fed’s program to debase the dollar’s value is the greatest act of thievery the world’s every known.

Whereas Mele’s just a thief and a moron, the Fed’s action is taken with the purpose and full knowledge that it’s thieving and transferring wealth to the U.S. government and the big banks. This, without question, is a downright disgrace.

The Fed’s currency debasement program, in addition to thieving the bank accounts of Americans and dollar holders the world over, is also extremely disruptive to commerce and personal wealth building. Consider the condition that derived Mele’s face value blooper…


Fake Money’s Face Value Deceit
The Morgan dollar was minted in the U.S. from 1878 to 1924 and again in 1921. The coin has a face value of $1 – on its tails side it explicitly says One Dollar. But it has a silver content of 0.7734 ounce. At today’s silver price, of roughly $15.14 per ounce, the Morgan dollar has a melt value of $11.70. Of course, collectible Morgan dollars are worth much more.

The point is the Morgan dollar’s real money. It has real value. It cannot be created at will.

Over issuance of dollars by the Fed, and the forced use of legal tender, have replaced real money with fake money. The fake money’s still called dollars. The One Dollar bill says it is One Dollar. Yet it’s really just $0.04. The other $0.96 has been confiscated by the Fed for Washington’s bidding.

Mele, the thief and moron, didn’t stand a chance against the Fed’s dishonest shenanigans. But, alas, the honest and upright also don’t stand a chance.
Washington’s spending habits, egged on by the Fed, slipped into decay many decades ago. The decline towards insolvency has accelerated as the thin façade of fiscal rectitude has crumbled. The national debt is going parabolic.

For example, the national debt doubled from roughly $5.5 trillion at the turn of the new millennium to roughly $11 trillion when President Obama took office. From there, it doubled again to roughly $22 trillion today. Over $1 trillion is being added to the debt each year, and we expect we’ll see $2 trillion deficits when the economy slips into decline possible later this year. Here’s why…

Congress prioritizes the expedient, and reelection, over responsible governance. Their modus operandi for the last 50 years – or more – has been to kick the can down the road. To punt the debt problem into the future.
As the economy slows, new stimulus will be piled upon the deficit with reckless abandon. Nothing but complete collapse will halt the expansion of government and runaway debt growth.

In the interim, like an encounter with a war veteran with missing limbs, fake money’s face value deceit imparts a daily reminder of the wickedness today’s monetary order has wrought.

Sincerely,
MN Gordon
for Economic Prism
Return from Fake Money’s Face Value Deceit to Economic Prism

NFP number in 4 Minutes... My guess 100,000


Benjamin

YES YES YES - I got it. Everyone else on CNBC made calls over 200,000

I called it 100,000 and it was 20,000

Wow !!!

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...ops+to+zero%29

Ahead of today's payrolls report, where the whisper number is for a weaker print than the 180K consensus, this is what most sellside desks expect the BLS will report at 830am today:

1. Natwest 235K
2. Jefferies 215K
3. SocGen 215K
4. BoFAML 210K
5. Scotia 210K
6. Barx 200K
7. RBC 200K
8. DB 195K
9. TD 190K
10. Citi 185K
11. HSBC 185K
12. UBS 181K
13. Daiwa 180K
14. BNP 175K
15. C Suisse 175K
16. JPM 175K
17. Mizuho 175K
18. BMO 170K
19. Nomura 170K
20. WF 160K
21. Goldman 150K
22. MS 141K
23. Dealer Median: 180K

Meanwhile, as we noted last night, the risk in today's jobs report is decidedly to the downside, with consensus expecting a sharp drop in payrolls to 180k (12-month average: 234k) from 304K in January, with the February jobs drop due to more seasonal temperatures weighing on weather-sensitive industries.
Specifically, Goldman is bracing for a big miss on the headline jobs print, estimating that nonfarm payrolls increased 150k in February, 30k below consensus and the slowest pace in five months. Goldman believes the trend in job growth has likely slowed from the 232k average pace of the last six months, and expects a drag of at least 40k from above-average snowfall during the February survey week. The February seasonal factors have also evolved unfavorably in recent years—perhaps reflecting the unusually mild weather of recent Februaries. If so, this would also restrain payroll growth in tomorrow’s report
Ironically, survey quirks may contribute to firmer wage growth, which could tick up to a pace last seen in 2009.
For those who missed our full preview yesterday, here again is what to expect from the BLS in 10 minutes courtesy of RanSquawk:

1. Non-farm Payrolls: Exp. 180k, Prev. 304k.
2. Unemployment Rate: Exp. 3.9%, Prev. 4.0% (NOTE: the FOMC currently projects unemployment will stand at 3.5% at the end of
3. 2019, and 4.4% in the longer-run).
4. U6 Unemployment Rate: Prev. 8.1%.
5. Average Earnings Y/Y: Exp. 3.3%, Prev. 3.2%.
6. Average Earnings M/M: Exp. 0.3%, Prev. 0.1%.
7. Average Work Week Hours: Exp. 34.5hrs, Prev. 34.5hrs.
8. Private Payrolls: Exp. 175k, Prev. 296k.
9. Labour Force Participation: Prev. 63.2%.

JOB GROWTH: While consensus expects a sharp drop from last month's 304K payrolls print, predicting a number around 180K, Goldman is bracing for a big miss on the headline jobs print, estimating that nonfarm payrolls increased 150k in February, 30k below consensus and the slowest pace in five months. Goldman believes the trend in job growth has likely slowed from the 232k average pace of the last six months, and expects a drag of at least 40k from above-average snowfall during the February survey week. The February seasonal factors have also evolved unfavorably in recent years—perhaps reflecting the unusually mild weather of recent Februaries. If so, this would also restrain payroll growth in tomorrow’s report.
WAGE GROWTH: While the Street expects a healthy 0.3% MM rise in average hourly earnings (3.3% for the YY), Nomura is slightly more optimistic, and forecasts the annualised rate will rise to 3.4%, the firmest pace since April 2009. “We expect average hourly earnings to increase 0.34% MM in February, partly due to a positive bias related to where the BLS survey week falls relative to the first of the month,” Nomura writes, “in addition, we see some upside risk to February AHE arising from unusual declines for certain industries during January including manufacturing and construction that could revert.”
Meanwhile, Goldman estimates average hourly earnings increased 0.4% month-over-month, with the year-over-year rate rising two tenths to a new cycle high of 3.4% (consensus is +0.3% mom and +3.3% yoy). The forecast reflects quite favorable calendar effects (the February survey week ended on the 16th of the month). Supervisory earnings have also been somewhat soft in recent months and could rebound, as headline average hourly earnings (+0.77% over the last three months) have underperformed the production and non-supervisory subset (+0.96%).
JOBLESS CLAIMS: For the week of the February NFP survey period, US initial jobless claims for the week were reported at 236k vs 200.5k for the January survey period. Some desks had noted that the trend-pace of jobless claims has weakened (jobless claims ticking higher), which is likely to be a function of slowing economic growth. This may continue in the coming months, though positive developments on China/US trade and Brexit may see some flattening in the summer. Additionally, claims have been rising from very low levels.
ADP PAYROLLS: The ADP reported 179k payrolls were added to the US economy in November, short of the 195k the Street was looking for. Crucially, Moody’s chief economist stated that while the report was strong, job growth has likely peaked: “This month’s report is free of significant weather effects and suggests slowing underlying job creation. With very tight labour markets, and record unfilled positions, businesses will have an increasingly tough time adding to payrolls.” Others noted that the data followed months of above-trend prints, so may not signal any meaningful shift in job growth. Additionally, Pantheon Macroeconomics says it looks for an official NFP reading above the ADP print since the BLS data will include people returning to work following hurricanes. “ADP isn’t directly affected by hurricanes because it counts names on payroll lists, while the BLS only counts people who were paid during the survey period, so hourly-paid part-timers can drop off the numbers after storms, and then return the following month,” Pantheon said.
BUSINESS SURVEYS: The employment sub-index in the manufacturing ISM report for February ticked down by 3.2 points, taking it to 52.3, signalling employment growth for a 29th straight month. “Employment continued to expand, but at the lowest level since November 2016, when the index registered 51.6 percent,” ISM said, noting that an Employment Index above 50.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment. The nonmanufacturing ISM employment sub-component fell by 2.6 points, taking it to a still healthy 55.2, representing the 60th consecutive monthly print above 50. The survey compiler noted comments from respondents, which included “lower employment makes higherpaying positions elsewhere more attractive” and “It is more difficult to find well-qualified workers. Our backlog of unfilled jobs is stubbornly the same despite the efforts of the HR department.”
JOB CUTS: Challenger reported US employers announced 76.8k job cuts in February – the highest monthly total in over threeand-a-half years; that’s a 45% jump vs January, and 117% jump vs February 2018. Challenger noted that the sharp rise was primarily due to the US Army cutting over 50k jobs, as well as the fall in oil prices which caused thousands of job cuts within the energy sector.
"Job cuts have been trending upward since the last half of 2018,” Challenger wrote, “we continue to see companies respond to shifting consumer behaviour, new technology, as well as trade and market uncertainty through workforce restructuring,” and added that retailers, meanwhile, “are closing or revamping brick-and-mortar locations, leading to job loss or going bankrupt and cutting their entire workforces.” The organisation also drew attention to the auto sector, where job cuts are up by over 200% YY. “The Auto industry is one in which shifting consumer demand and new tech is creating the need to pivot in a different direction. Tech companies like Apple and Tesla are competing for the self-driving market, causing disruptions to traditional manufacturers and suppliers like Apple and Tesla are competing for the self-driving market, causing disruptions to traditional manufacturers and suppliers.”
Here are they key qualitative considerations headed into tomorrow's jobs print, via Goldman:
Arguing for a weaker report:

1. Winter weather. Mild winter weather likely boosted job growth in December and January by 100k or more cumulatively, and the unwind of these effects is likely to weigh on job growth in February and early spring. Furthermore, survey-week snowfall swung above average in February, with a 1-inch seasonally adjusted rise vs. January (population-weighted basis, see left panel of Exhibit 1). The February seasonal factors have also evolved unfavorably in recent years (see right panel) - note the possibility that the seasonal adjustment software is fitting to the unusually mild weather of recent Februaries. If so, the seasonal factors could amplify the impact of snowy weather in tomorrow’s report. Goldman's February payroll growth estimate embeds a -40k weather effect, but there is risk of a considerably larger drag.

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...s/snowfall.jpg

1. Jobless claims. Initial jobless claims rose over the five weeks between the payroll reference periods (+8k to 229k on average, a 10-month high). This increase is consistent with some slowing in the underlying pace of job growth. Continuing claims also rose from survey week to survey week (+89k to 1,805k), but we continue to believe that residual seasonality is currently boosting that measure (by 100-150k).
2. Job cuts. Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas increased by 23k in February to 66k (SA by GS). On a year-over-year basis, announced job cuts rose 41k, mostly reflecting increases in the industrial goods (+28k yoy) and retail (+13k yoy) sectors, the latter of which may include the impact of retailer bankruptcies (Payless Shoes, Charlotte Russe).

Arguing for a stronger report:

1. Job availability. Three measures of labor demand all rose to new cycle highs in their most recent readings. The Conference Board labor market differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get—rose 0.2pt to +34.3 in February. JOLTS job openings also rose (+169k to 7,335k in December). Third, the Conference Board’s Help Wanted Online (HWOL) index—whose methodology has been improved to remove duplicate ads and other sources of volatility—rose to 0.3pt to 104.0 in February.
2. Labor supply constraints. Historically, labor supply constraints are less likely to bind in February, as first-reported job growth is often relatively strong when the unemployment rate is below estimates of NAIRU (for example, in 1997-99, 2006, and 2017-18). This may reflect the seasonally elevated pool of unemployed workers available to be hired (following end-of-year layoffs). Relatedly, firms may pull forward some spring hiring into February if they expect difficulty finding workers.

Neutral Factors:

1. Business surveys. Service-sector business surveys generally improved in February, as our headline non-manufacturing tracker rose by 4.0pt. While the employment component also increased (+1.3pt to 54.0), it has still declined notably in recent months and remains well below the elevated levels seen in mid-2018. Manufacturing-sector surveys were mixed in February, and our manufacturing employment tracker remained relatively stable (+0.2pt to 55.8). Taken together, business surveys suggest a slowdown in the pace of job growth but hardly a collapse (see Exhibit 2). Service-sector job growth rose 224k in January and averaged 173k over the last six months. Manufacturing payroll employment rose 13k in January and increased 19k on average over the last six months.
2. ADP. The payroll-processing firm ADP reported a 183k increase in February private payroll employment—7k below consensus and moderately below the average pace over the prior six months (+214k). While slightly below expectations, the February ADP report suggests that the underlying pace of job growth remains above potential. We also note that winter weather tends to affect the official payroll measure more so than it affects the ADP series.
3. End of Government Shutdown. While the partial government shutdown (Dec. 22 through Jan. 25) did not significantly affect January’s federal employment figures (+1k mom sa), contractor layoffs may have weighed on the information (-4k) and business services (+30k vs. six month average of +43k) categories in that report. In terms of February job growth, while a rebound in contractor activity could conceivably boost employment in some services categories, federal office closures in the first two weeks of the payroll month may have depressed federal hiring.

Source: RanSquawk, Goldman

loveandpeace

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Have a positive day and I look forward to hearing from you here on my thread.

Best regards


Benjamin

First of all, All praise/credit goes to almighty GOD, without HIS help, we are helpless, cannot do anything.

And 2nd of all Mr. Benjamins, your teaching, help, support have made a BIG difference in my trading style.



Thanks for your offer to arrange money to trade for your corporation, that would be my dream to work with you.

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A wonderful weekend. Take care.

Ashraf

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index2807.htm

March 8, 2019
On Same Day, Two US Federal Judges Slap Special Counsel Mueller In Face Over Trump-Russia Collusion Hoax
By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers
In what a new Security Council (SC) report circulating in the Kremlin today calls an astounding slap to the face of main Trump-Russia Collusion Hoax investigator Special Counsel Robert Mueller, not one, but two US Federal Judges put flames to this Hillary Clinton bought and paid for scheme to illegally contest her election loss to President Trump yesterday by exposing it for the farce it really is—the first being Senior United States District Judge of the United States District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia Thomas Selby Ellis III, who shot down Mueller’s vile attempt to put formerTrump campaign chairman Paul Manafort in jail for life—who was followed by United States District Judge of the United States District Court for the District of Columbia Dabney Friedrichwarning Mueller that she is growing weary of his antics in the Concord Management and Consulting “show trial” (a public trial in which authorities have already determined the guilt of the defendant) –thus leaving it no wonder why Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov slammed Mueller by correctly declaring that “none of these previously started investigations have brought anything but laughable results”. [Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no exact counterpart.]

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/hoax1.jpg

According to this report, during the 2016 US Presidential Election, top Washington lobbyist Paul Manafort became one of the shortest lived presidential campaign chairman in history after he was promoted by Trump on 20 June 2016 to this leadership position, but was than promptly fired by Trump less than 2-months later on 19 August 2016—and whose firing was due to Trump receiving a 17 August 2016 security briefing wherein he learned that Manafort had been under US federal investigation for financial crimes in 2006, but were charges US federal prosecutors at the time declined to prosecute.
Following the Hillary Clinton generated Trump-Russia Collusion scheme causing the appointment of Special Counsel Mueller, however, this report details, Mueller dusted off these over decade old charges against Manafort and arrested him for them on 30 October 2017—but in whose charging indictment, salaciously scattered throughout it references to Konstantin Kilimnik—whom Muller claimed had “links” to Russian intelligence and was a known associate of Manafort—but whom in reality is a Ukrainian citizen living in Ukraine—a nation that’s in a state of war with Russia and is the absolute last place on Earth a Russian intelligence operative would be living openly—and as Kilimnik himself admitted from his home in Kiev-Ukraine last year when he stated that if he was a Russian agent, “I would not be here in Ukraine, I would be in Russia”.
Seeing through Special Counsel Mueller’s blatant ploy to use Manafort as nothing more than fodder for the Democrat Party socialist-aligned US mainstream media establishments insatiable appetite for anything Russian to bash over President Trump’s head with, though, this report continues, was US Senior Federal Judge Ellis—who immediately upon receiving this case, declared in open court that Manafort was only being prosecuted by Mueller to make him “sing”, if not outright “compose” lies against Trump—and during whose trial for Manafort, refused to allow Muller to even mention anything having to do with Russia.
For Manafort’s original 2006 financial crimes, that were never prosecuted by Mueller when he was the Director of the FBI, this report notes, today’s Special Counsel version of Mueller was successful in achieving a conviction against Manafort—and that Mueller solemnly told Senior Judge Ellis that Manafort deserved a defacto life sentence of up to 25-years in prison for—a beyond shocking request Senior Judge Ellis shot down in flames yesterday by his sentencing Manafort to just 3-years and 11 months, with credit for the 9-months he’s already spent behind bars in solitary confinement—that when combined with the 6-months of “good time” he’ll receive, will see him serving 2.5-years—and whose final shot at Mueller before giving his sentence ruling, saw Senior Judge Ellis reminding everyone about Manafort: “He is not before the court for anything having to do with colluding with the Russian government”.

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/hoax2.png

Running concurrently with Special Counsel Mueller’s judicial persecution of Paul Manafort, this report continues, was his, likewise, targeting of Concord Management and Consulting—that’s a member of the Concord Company Group, which is half owned by Yevgeny Prigozhin—a Russian multi-billionaire business oligarch who, for some bizarre reason, the US mainstream propaganda media delights in calling “Putin’s Chef” because one of the smaller companies he owns has in the past done catering services for the government—but who in Russia itself, is best known for his ownership of the paramilitary private company Wagner Group that last year was reported to have fought a 4-hour battle against US commando forces in Syria.
On 16 February 2018, this report details, Special Counsel Mueller filed what is now known as a “joke indictment” against Concord Management and Consulting claiming that, in 2014, they began financially supporting a Russian computer company based in St. Petersburg known as the Internet Research Agency—and whom, Mueller absurdly claimed, interfered in the 2016 US Presidential Election because they ran a “troll farm” that posted anti-Clinton, anti-Trump, pro-Clinton and pro-Trump memes to the internet—and some of whose exact US federal laws Mueller claimed they violated were “improper foreign influence”, “political activities” and “derogatory information”—none of which are actual US federal laws, and that led their American attorneys to declare in US Federal Court that “these terms have no legal meaning and by virtue of their inclusion in the indictment, they force Concord to speculate what their meaning might be”.
Not just were Concord’s attorneys left trying to figure out what exact US laws they were being accused by Mueller of violating, this report notes, they were, also, left clueless as to the evidence Mueller was using against them as it’s all being kept secret—thus leading to an historic situation in America where a defendant could actually be prosecuted without their even being able to see the evidence accumulated against them—that in this case is over 3.2 million documents Mueller claims he has, but won’t allow Concord to see because they are Russian.
Even more shocking, this report further notes, US District Judge Dabney Friedrich, who is overseeing Mueller’s persecution of Concord, admitted that she, too, wasn’t being allowed to see any of this evidence—thus causing her, yesterday, to tell Mueller that she’s going to begin freeing up evidence—as, beyond all doubt, she doesn’t want to go down in history as being the first American judge to preside over a secret trial that illegally denies a defendant’s US Constitution’s Sixth Amendment right to know what exact laws they’re accused of violating and be able see, and defend against, the evidence against them.

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/hoax3.jpg

As to why exactly Special Counsel Mueller filed his “joke indictment” against Concord Management in the first place, this report explains, was because after Senior Judge Ellis saw through his 30 October 2017 indictment ploy of using Paul Manafort to keep the Trump-Russia Collusion hoax alive—he needed a patsy to placate the deranged socialist Democrat Party and their mainstream media lapdogs—but with Mueller knowing that whomever he charged, they could never be allowed appear in a US Federal Court, otherwise the entire Hillary Clinton coup scheme to overthrow President Trump could be exposed by yet another US Federal Judge.
Therefore, this report further details, Mueller, on 16 February2018, filed his “joke indictment” against the Russian company Concord Management—that was followed, on 13 July 2018, by his, likewise indicting 12 Russian military intelligence officers—the latter being done in a sweeping and all encompassing US Federal Court indictment document whose comical narrative named each Russian military officer by rank and name, the buildings they worked in, the offices where their desks were located, and the serial numbers of the exact computers they were using—all of which was entirely made up—and if true, would have seen Mueller being prosecuted and jailed for publically divulging his nation’s most sensitive intelligence methods on how they monitor foreign intelligence agencies—that this indictment, in fact, gives any nation a full and complete roadmap to protect against.
Knowing, though, that neither the Democrat Party, nor its mainstream media lapdogs, would even question in the slightest his fantastical made up fairy tale indictments of Russians, this report concludes, Mueller did make one fatal mistake—his failing to remember that under US federal law, a company, no matter if it’s Russian, has the same legal rights as a human being—and was why Mueller was shocked when Concord Management hired one of the top law firms in the United States to defend itself—and whose attorneys have discovered why Mueller is trying to keep everything secret, because everything he charged Concord with, Hillary Clinton was discovered doing, too—that specifically includes:
The Washington Post reporting in 2015 that David Brock’s Correct The Record political action committee (PAC) would work directly with the Hillary Clinton Campaign “testing the legal limits” of campaign finance in the process while relying on a 2006 Federal Election Commission regulation that declared that “content posted online for free, such as blogs, is off-limits from regulation”—and post online, Brock’s PAC did: “disseminating information about Clinton on its Web site and through its Facebook and Twitter accounts”—and is the exact “crime” Concord Management was charged by Mueller for violating.
The New York Times reporting in 2016 in their article titled “Inside Hillary Clinton’s Outrage Machine, Allies Push the Buttons” that described how Clinton operative Peter Daou sat with his team at a long wooden table pushing the buttons that activate Clinton’s outrage machine—an operation Daou called “Shareblue” that flooded the internet with made up anti-Trump hysteria—and is the exact “crime” Concord Management was charged by Mueller for violating.
And The Los Angeles times, in their 2016 article titled “Be Nice To Hillary Clinton Online — Or Risk A Confrontation With Her Super PAC”, that described in full detail Hillary Clinton’s active election interference and stated: “It is meant to appear to be coming organically from people and their social media networks in a groundswell of activism, when in fact it is highly paid and highly tactical”—and is the exact “crime” Concord Management was charged by Mueller for violating.

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/hoax4.jpg

March 8, 2019 EU and US all rights reserved. Permission to use this report in its entirety is granted under the condition it is linked back to its original source at WhatDoesItMean.Com. Freebase content licensed under CC-BY and GFDL.
[Note: Many governments and their intelligence services actively campaign against the information found in these reports so as not to alarm their citizens about the manybu catastrophic Earth changes and events to come, a stance that the Sisters of Sorcha Faal strongly disagree with in believing that it is every human beings right to know the truth. Due to our missions conflicts with that of those governments, the responses of their ‘agents’ has been a longstanding misinformation/misdirection campaign designed to discredit us, and others like us, that is exampled in numerous places, including HERE.]
[Note: The WhatDoesItMean.com website was created for and donated to the Sisters of Sorcha Faal in 2003 by a small group of American computer experts led by the late global technology guru Wayne Green (1922-2013) to counter the propaganda being used by the West to promote their illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq.]
[Note: The word Kremlin (fortress inside a city) as used in this report refers to Russian citadels, including in Moscow, having cathedrals wherein female Schema monks (Orthodox nuns) reside, many of whom are devoted to the mission of the Sisters of Sorcha Faal.]
Hillary Clinton May Talk With Spirit Of Eleanor Roosevelt—But Longest Serving First Lady In History Rises From Grave To Protect Trump
The Epistle of Saint Helena: Why German Scientists Are Sounding Grave New Alarm
War Has Just Been Declared On Me, On Me Personally—Now I Am Alone, On Enemy Territory

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https://mailchi.mp/cryptocoinsnews/t...1?e=43e1b88f5f

Bitcoin's May 2020 halving could lead to a meteoric price boom for the flagship cryptocurrency. | Source: REUTERS / Dado Ruvic / Illustration / File Photo
Bitcoin’s Impending ‘Halving’ Could Spark Meteoric Price Boom
Joseph Young 08/03/2019 Bitcoin Analysis, Bitcoin Price News, Crypto, News
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Alistair Milne, the chief investment officer at Atlanta Digital Currency Fund, has said that the block reward halving of Bitcoin could push the price of the dominant cryptocurrency to massive gains in the next 12 months.
WHY BLOCK REWARD HALVING IS A FUNDAMENTAL DRIVER OF BITCOIN PRICE
https://www.ccn.com/wp-content/uploa...ear-march8.jpg
The Bitcoin price should receive a major boost from the halving next year. | Source: Yahoo Finance
A block reward halving in Bitcoin is referred to as the mechanism that decreases the amount of Bitcoin generated by miners after mining a block.
On the Bitcoin network, miners solve complex cryptographic problems using computing power to process transactions, which are then placed in blocks to form a blockchain.
To compensate miners, every block generates a certain amount of Bitcoin which miners then can use to cover their expenses such as equipment and electricity costs.
The block reward of the Bitcoin network is expected to decrease by half in 15 months, and traditionally, a block reward halving has led the price of Bitcoin to rally because it reduces the rate in which new BTC is produced.
https://www.ccn.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/cz.png
The next Bitcoin block reward halving will take place around May 2020. | Source: Bitcoinblockhalf.com
As Bitcoin nears its fixed 21 million supply, the scarcity of the digital asset increases, which boosts the price and the demand from the market.
Milne said:

BenjaminIs, quick question for you, on the platform, you have set 12 windows, but normally I noticed that you use only 5 or 6,

US30, S&P, USD/JPY, GOLD, SILVER and might be 1 or 2 more, what about the rest??

Last time you were talking about quitting FF, would you mind telling us the reason?? Thanks,

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econo...0KV4-xayAooww/

Another Wild Jobs Report: Payroll Employment Rose a Disappointing 20,000
https://imageproxy.themaven.net/http...xEOjynR4L5C8fg

https://imageproxy.themaven.net/http...%3Fversion%3D0

byMish

4 hrs[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.38)]-edited[/color]


The BLS gave us another wild jobs report. Unemployment fell to a new low for the cycle but the jobs gain was only 20K.


Initial Reaction
Following last month's screwy jobs report in which the population supposedly shrunk by 649,000 comes an unexpectedly weak report in which jobs only rose by 20,000. The unemployment rate however, fell 0.2 percentage points to 3.8% as employment rose by 255,000. Once again the household survey and the establishment survey were miles apart.


Last month employment was -251,000. This month employment rose by 255,000. In December, the BLS reported +142,000. The three month running total for employment is +146,000 an average of +47,000 per month.

Last month U6 unemployment rose 0.5 percentage point to 8.1%. This month it fell 0.8 percentage points to 7.3%.

Yes, this was another wild report.

Let’s dive into the details in the BLS Employment Situation Summary, unofficially called the Jobs Report.

Job Revisions
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised up from +222,000 to +227,000, and the change for January was revised up from +304,000 to +311,000. With these revisions, employment gains in December and January combined were 12,000 more than previously reported.

After revisions, job gains have averaged 186,000 per month over the last 3 months.
BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

1. Nonfarm Payroll: +20,000 – Establishment Survey
2. Employment: +255,000 – Household Survey
3. Unemployment: +241,000 – Household Survey
4. Involuntary Part-Time Work: -837,000 – Household Survey
5. Voluntary Part-Time Work: +204,000 – Household Survey
6. Baseline Unemployment Rate: +0.1 to 4.0% – Household Survey
7. U-6 unemployment: -0.8 PP to 7.3% – Household Survey
8. Civilian Non-institutional Population: +153,000
9. Civilian Labor Force: -45,000 – Household Survey
10. Not in Labor Force: +198,000 – Household Survey
11. Participation Rate: +0.0 to 63.2– Household Survey

Employment Report Statement
Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in February (+20,000), and the unemployment rate declined to 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in professional and business services, health care, and wholesale trade continued to trend up, while construction employment decreased.

Unemployment Rate – Seasonally Adjusted
https://imageproxy.themaven.net/http...mU28UWD0ah7THQ

The above Unemployment Rate Chart is from the BLS. Click on the link for an interactive chart.

Nonfarm Employment Change from Previous Month
https://imageproxy.themaven.net/http...N0a65j0czWwzYg

Hours and Wages
Average weekly hours of all private employees fell 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours. Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees was flat at 33.3 hours. Average weekly hours of manufacturers fell 0.1 hours to 40.7 hours.

Average Hourly Earnings of All Nonfarm Workers rose $0.11 to $27.66. That a 0.51% gain. Average hourly earnings of private service-providing employees rose $0.11 to $27.43, a gain of 0.40%. Average hourly earnings of manufacturers rose $0.12 to $27.38, a gain of 0.44%.

Average hourly earnings of Production and Supervisory Workersrose $0.08 to $23.18. That's a 0.3.5% gain. Average hourly earnings of private service-providing employees rose $0.10 to $22.92, a gain of 0.44%. Average hourly earnings of manufacturers rose $0.06 to $21.90, a gain of 0.27%

Year-Over-Year Wage Growth

1. All Private Nonfarm from $26.75 to $27.66, a gain of 3.4%
2. All production and supervisory from $22.40 to $23.18, a gain of 3.5%.

For a discussion of income distribution, please see What’s “Really” Behind Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution?

Birth Death Model
Starting January 2014, I dropped the Birth/Death Model charts from this report. For those who follow the numbers, I retain this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid. Should anything interesting arise in the Birth/Death numbers, I will comment further.

Table 15 BLS Alternative Measures of Unemployment
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Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.
Notice I said “better” approximation not to be confused with “good” approximation.

The official unemployment rate is 3.8%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.

U-6 is much higher at 7.3%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.
Some of those dropping out of the labor force retired because they wanted to retire. The rest is disability fraud, forced retirement, discouraged workers, and kids moving back home because they cannot find a job.

Strength is Relative
It’s important to put the jobs numbers into proper perspective.

1. In the household survey, if you work as little as 1 hour a week, even selling trinkets on eBay, you are considered employed.
2. In the household survey, if you work three part-time jobs, 12 hours each, the BLS considers you a full-time employee.
3. In the payroll survey, three part-time jobs count as three jobs. The BLS attempts to factor this in, but they do not weed out duplicate Social Security numbers. The potential for double-counting jobs in the payroll survey is large.

Household Survey vs. Payroll Survey
The payroll survey (sometimes called the establishment survey) is the headline jobs number, generally released the first Friday of every month. It is based on employer reporting.

The household survey is a phone survey conducted by the BLS. It measures unemployment and many other factors.
If you work one hour, you are employed. If you don’t have a job and fail to look for one, you are not considered unemployed, rather, you drop out of the labor force.

Looking for jobs on Monster does not count as “looking for a job”. You need an actual interview or send out a resume.
These distortions artificially lower the unemployment rate, artificially boost full-time employment, and artificially increase the payroll jobs report every month.


Final Thoughts
Last month's report was one of the strangest in a long time. This month repeated the story but in different ways. The three month average of jobs is now +186,000 per month. The three month average in employment is only +47,000 per month.


Mike “Mish” Shedlock

I use the 18 currency pairs and CFD's in order to have a comprehensive view of the major asset classes so that I can see where the money is flowing whether we have RISK ON or RISK OFF.

As for why am I going to stop posting here on Forex Factory there had been no point other than perfecting my trading methods as it relates to teaching Forex traders. Most people that come to Forex Factory are too stubborn or have closed minds and very few communicate so it has no more purpose for me now that I have finished my work developing my teaching material and communicating. This is a business and not a place to spend thousands of hours of my time and give away my 16 years of knowledge and experience for free. I see that you have a strong belief in G-D which is very important. There is a saying in The Five Books of Moses that says "A Honest Day's Work for an Honest Dollar" When people get things for free then they put no or little value on it. I hope this explains my thoughts and reason to you. This morning during NFP day was a perfect example. I had not one person here participating so there was really not much reason to post here. When I charge for access my original set up fee of $250 US dollars and my monthly fee of $50 US dollars then there will be people who will participate because they do not want to throw away their money just like I do not want to throw away my time and experience and superior knowledge in my Forex business.

Respectfully yours


Benjamin

Shabbat Shalom Peace Brother

This week’s parsha contains Yaakov’s famous dream of the ladder with its legs on the ground and its head reaching heavenward. The Angels of G-d ascend and descend the ladder. The Baal HaTurim makes the following interesting but almost inscrutable comment: The numeric value of the Hebrew word for ladder (sulam) equals the numeric value of the Hebrew word for money (mamon). This common “gematria” of 136 obviously teaches some kind of symbolism between the Angels ascending and descending the ladder and money. What is this connection?

One of the standard interpretations of this Baal HaTurim is based on the fact that one of the great tests in life is how we handle money. I once read an essay from my good friend Rabbi Yaakov Luban on this subject. We have all observed a phenomenon in life whereby when a person is in Yeshiva he strives for matters of spirituality, growth in intellectual accomplishment, and acquisition of Torah knowledge. Many times however, when this same person leaves the protective walls of the Yeshiva, his priorities change. He is no longer interested in growth and his spirituality begins to slip.

The primary reason for this is that when a person leaves the Yeshiva and certainly when he goes from being single and supported by his parents to being married and responsible for his own livelihood, his outlook on life changes. The burden of making a living skews a person’s entire outlook on life. A person becomes so consumed with trying to earn a parnasah for himself and his family that the priorities that were important to him as a yeshiva bochur (getting a good chavrusa, having a ‘good Elul’, etc.) often fall by the wayside and are no longer important. Instead, “I have to put food on the table” and “I’ve got to pay the mortgage” become important.

The yoke of earning a living is one of the major tests of life — not only in terms of making a living but also in terms of the tests a person confronts within the working world — remaining honest, dealing with integrity, not cutting corners, not trying to cheat people, etc.

Perhaps this is what the Baal HaTurim means here when Yaakov is leaving the comfort and protection of his parental home and he’s about to embark on the rest of his life’s journey into the “real world”. He sees the ‘sulam’ [ladder] representing the challenges of ‘mamon’ (money=earning a living). He sees the Angels of G-d ascending and descending the ladder. He sees both the potential for ascent as well as the potential for descent in trying to traverse the ladder = attempting to earn a living.

Yaakov Avinu passed the test of earning a livelihood with flying colors. Not only did he not cut corners, he was impeccably honest. He was impeccably honest with a father in law who was a crook. This did not give Yaakov the rationalization to say “You need to cheat a cheater; you need to fight fire with fire.” This was not part of his calculation.

When Yaakov finally left the house of Lavan, Lavan chased after Yaakov and overtook him at Mt. Gilead. The Almighty came to Lavan in a dream and told him “Take heed that you not speak to Yaakov — either good or evil!” In effect, G-d warned Lavan: “Don’t lay a finger on Yaakov Avinu.” The Medrash Tanchuma says a very interesting thing on this pasuk: We see from here that the merit of Yaakov’s honest work for Lavan brought him more protective merit even than the merit of his fathers (zecus Avos). The Medrash bases this on the pasuk: “Except the G_d of my father, the G_d of Avraham, and the Fear of Yitzchak, had been on my side, surely now would you have sent me away empty. G-d has seen my affliction and THE LABOR OF MY HANDS and He chastised last night.” [Bereshis 31:42]


I always felt that this dialogue here between Yaakov and Lavan is one of the most moving dialogues in the entire Torah. Lavan comes to Yaakov and says to him “What are you doing? You took my daughters! You cheated me! What kind of business is this?” Yaakov Avinu then pours out his heart at his father-in-law. He goes through the whole litany of complaints against Lavan. “I didn’t cheat you. You cheated me! I suffered the cold. I suffered the heat! I faithfully took care of your sheep for these 20 long years! I hardly had time to sleep at night. You kept changing the terms of my service to improve your position! If not for the G-d of Avraham and the Fear of Yitzchak (e.g. — my zecus Avos) that stood by me, I would be left penniless. I would have left your house a pauper. Furthermore, G-d saw my efforts and the work of my hands and He chastised last night.”


The Medrash interprets this pasuk as follows: The Zechus Avos (merit of the ancestors) only aided him in that it allowed him to escape Lavan without being penniless. However, the fact that Lavan was not able to touch him, the fact that he escaped intact, as a wealthy man with a large family — that was a reward for the faithfulness of his work. It was because Hashem saw his honesty and dedication to his work that He appeared to Lavan and prohibited him from harming Yaakov in any way, shape or form.


The Medrash says we see from here that a person should not slough off on his job. He should not say “I can take it easy and not put out 100% effort for my employer.” A person must put in a full and honest effort in all his labors so that Hashem can send forth His blessing to him.


The Rambam writes in the last law of Hilchos Sechirus [13:7]: Just as the employer has to treat the poor (worker) honestly, so too the poor (worker) is warned not to “steal” the work of the employer and take off a little time here and a little time there, thereby spending the entire day in deceit. Rather, he must be meticulous with himself during the time he is working because (the Rabbis) were particular that he should not recite the fourth blessing (of Birkat haMazon since it will “waste” the time he is obligated to be working for his employer). So too, he must work with all his strength as the Tzadik Yaakov said “For with all my strength I worked for your father”. Therefore, he took reward for this even in this world, as it is written “And the man prospered very very much.”
It is interesting to note that the Rambam refers to Yaakov here as Yaakov haTzadik (a term usually reserved for Yosef), not merely Yaakov Avinu. Why is he referred to as Yaakov haTzadik? It is because he was an honest worker. He is the paradigm of an honest employee.

Benjamin Israel

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/g...ing-currencies

The explanation for the sudden halt in global economic growth is found in the coincidence of peak credit combining with trade protectionism. The history of economic downturns points to a rerun of the 1929-32 period, but with fiat currencies substituted for a gold standard. Government finances are in far worse shape today, and markets have yet to appreciate the consequences of just a moderate contraction in global trade. Between new issues and liquidation by foreigners, domestic buyers will need to absorb $2 trillion of US Treasuries in the coming year, so QE is bound to return with a vengeance, the last hurrah for fiat currencies. However, China and Russia have the means to escape this fate, assuming they have the gumption to do so.


Introduction
It may be too early to say the world is entering a significant economic downturn, but even ardent bulls must admit to it as an increasing possibility. Financial analysts, both bovine and ursine, face a complex matrix of factors when judging the future effect of any downturn on currencies, and of the prospects for the dollar in particular.

Some will take the view that a global downturn will continue to drive foreign currencies to be sold for dollars, because dollars are perceived to be less risky and required to repay debt. Some will point to the tension in the euro from the extra twist an economic downturn gives to the debt crisis forced on Italy and the other three PIGS, compared with the relative stability of the Hanseatic nations. Some analysts will expect China to get her come-uppance when her debt-fuelled economy implodes into crisis.

As a recession progresses, it is conventional to think of the dollar as a safe-haven. For a brief time, relative to other currencies this might be true. But what then?

Those that succeed in their analysis beyond the short-term will do so by discarding all bias. They could then observe that in the event an economic downturn gathers pace a split could emerge in relative outcomes between East and West. The effect of a downturn on the Asian bloc, led by China, Russia and now joined by India, is likely to differ from the effect on America and Europe. It is the new versus the old, Asian mercantile states that provide minimal welfare, differing from the more mature welfare-heavy nations.

When we consider these two groups, we tend to analyse the situation through the lens of our own prejudices. Remove this predisposition, and it should become clear that whatever the starting point in terms of debt to GDP and other metrics, the prospects for welfare-light nations are considerably better in a global economic downturn than they are for nations burdened by extensive welfare obligations. China and other Asian states will not face the same degree of debt escalation as America, Japan, the UK and the European nations. Furthermore, Asia has far more dynamic economies with the potential for a continuing industrial revolution.

Government finances will be central to outcomes. Given that all government finances deteriorate during economic downturns, the starting point and the pace of debt escalation are what should concern us. China’s overall debt to GDP ratio at approximately 260% compares with that of the US which is around 360%, so on that score China’s total debt is significantly less. The US Government’s debt to GDP stands at over 100%, while China’s is estimated to be under 45%. Yet, Western analysts perceive China to be in a weaker debt position than the US.

America’s principal strength, which everyone cites, is the reserve role of her currency. Everyone needs dollars. All countries without sophisticated financial markets in their own currencies borrow in dollars, which must eventually be repaid. Everything from commodity prices to global financial markets is referenced in dollars. The dollar has also become weaponised, the means of enforcing America’s foreign policy. It is the King Rat of the currency world.

So long as the world enjoys continual economic growth, the dollar is difficult to challenge. When the economic tide turns, everything becomes different. In this article I explain why the global economy is heading for a crisis which could be similar in scale to the great depression. If this analysis is correct, then the dollar’s prospects as the global reserve currency, even its continuing existence, will be threatened and must be reassessed in that light.
Peak credit is coinciding with trade protection


In a previous article I pointed out the catastrophic danger of combining trade protectionism with the top of the credit cycle. This combination was devastating when the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was passed by Congress in October 1929, particularly when compared with the relatively minor consequences of the Fordney-McCumber tariffs of 1922. The difference was Fordney-McCumber was introduced early in the credit cycle, and Smoot-Hawley at its peak. This dissimilarity was the principal driver behind the viciousness of the Wall Street crash and the subsequent global depression.

We have a situation today so similar to Smoot-Hawley and its coincidence with the top of the credit cycle in 1929 that we should be deeply concerned. What is particularly alarming is that international trade appears to have already stopped expanding, almost as if it has run into a brick wall. A comparison with the 1929 experience suggests this result as extremely likely. That precedent warns us today’s international trade may be rapidly sliding from expansion into severe contraction, with dire consequences for the whole global economy. Smoot-Hawley and the top of the credit cycle in 1929 combined into the motive force that made the great depression unnecessarily deep, global and intractable.

The impact on government debt funding will be immense

The question then arises as to how a top-of-the-credit-cycle event combined with an escalation of trade protectionism will impact the US economy today, particularly with regard to funding an increasing budget deficit when Americans have become used to foreigners buying the bulk of new Treasury bonds.

To appreciate the full implications, we must revisit the connection between trade and budget deficits under the recessionary assumption that the budget deficit will rise, while trade volumes contract. But before examining the consequences, we must set the scene by explaining why and how the twin deficits are linked. The easiest way to do so is to imagine a world of sound money, where the total of money and credit is fixed and the preference for holding money relative to goods does not alter.

If the quantity of money and credit is constant, all imports must be paid for by exports. In other words, trade imbalances cannot arise if there are no changes in the total of circulating money. If credit is extended to an importer, it must be sourced from savers prepared to defer their spending, instead of being created out of thin air, as is the case with fractional reserve banking. At the same time, the government can only finance its spending by raising taxes and borrowing from private individuals. The banking system in our sound-money example can only act as intermediaries and cannot increase the quantity of money or credit to pay for government spending, nor can it expand credit to finance trade.

Therefore, the sound money condition that makes a trade imbalance impossible is the same one that makes a budget deficit impossible. It follows from this that if the quantities of money and credit are allowed to expand, imbalances develop for trade or government budgets, or both. One deficit does not have to lead to the other, but to the extent it does not, then the difference must be reflected in a change in the savings rate. Savings must be spent in order to increase the consumption that leads to trade deficits. Alternatively, they must be invested, or spending deferred, in order to reduce them.

If a government spends more than it receives in taxes and the resulting budget deficit is not reflected in a similar deficit on the balance of trade, it is because individuals defer their spending and increase their savings by buying government bonds. Their spending on consumer items thereby becomes curtailed, restricting demand for imported consumer goods. Obviously, there are other investment media, such as corporate bonds and new issues which attract savings, which is why the twin deficits will never be exactly equal. But generally, if there is no change in the savings rate, both trade and budget deficits will approximate with each other.

In today’s world of fiat currencies, a budget deficit still has to be financed in the absence of an increase in savings. The two sources of non-saver finance are the purchase of government debt by the banking system and the reinvestment of surplus dollars accumulating in foreign hands, mainly as a result of the trade deficit. So long as foreigners are willing to reinvest their dollar surpluses instead of selling them, the twin deficits are not destabilising. The trouble comes when that condition ceases, which is most likely to happen when the credit cycle turns, and tariffs are imposed or threatened.

Furthermore, government finances deteriorate rapidly when an economic slump develops. Table 1 below is an idealised illustration of how the government funding requirement increases during a relatively minor recession, due to a changing combination of the twin deficits. Our starting point is the US fiscal year to October just ended.
https://www.goldmoney.com/images/med...0.15.21_AM.png

US residents and banks would only have had to find $184bn in Fiscal 2018 to fill the Federal Government’s funding gap. This is the domestic funding requirement. Assuming the changes listed in the notes to Table 1 apply to fiscal 2019, the domestic funding requirement rises to over a trillion dollars, an increase of more than fivefold. Crucially, this assumes capital surpluses accumulating in foreign hands from the US’s trade deficit are fully recycled into Treasury bonds.

An escalation of domestic funding requirements will be repeated in all other countries that habitually run trade deficits and face rising welfare obligations. These dynamics are certainly not factored into market expectations, because bond yields have yet to reflect the increase in supply, and the price of gold has not suggested the inflationary implications of the quantitative easing certain to be reintroduced in all the advanced economies.

Returning to our analysis of the US position, the increase in the domestic funding requirement implies capital imports would have to rise sharply even in a moderate recession if a funding crisis is to be avoided. That is unlikely to happen.

Assuming that global trade is beginning to contract as our thesis suggests, it is more likely foreigners will be repatriating funds into their own currencies instead of investing them in dollars. Earlier bullish assumptions by foreign corporations about trade expansion will inevitably lead to a downwards reassessment of their dollar requirements. Rising budget deficits and the emergence of malinvestments in their own jurisdictions will require funding as well. The potential for a government funding crisis to go global is very real.

Until only recently, foreign investors have continually increased their investments in US Treasury bonds, expecting uninterrupted growth in cross-border trade. This has changed with America’s new protectionist policies and the Chinese and European responses to them. We saw evidence of this in the US Treasury’s TIC data for December, when foreigners were recorded as net sellers to the tune of $91.4bn, representing nearly twice the previous month’s trade deficit.

This may be early evidence that capital flows are already reversing out of US dollars. Without capital inflows, it will be the American banking system and private investors that will have to fund the whole budget deficit and absorb further dollar liquidation from abroad. Just to be clear, Table 1 above tells us the domestic funding requirement will switch from $184bn last year to financing the whole budget deficit of over $1,500bn if foreigners stop buying. Additionally, there is the prospect of extra capital outflows, if December’s TIC figures are any guide. At that rate, foreigners will liquidate a significant portion of their existing dollar investments, which includes the disposal of Treasury bonds.

These dollar sales are likely to be significant and could easily take total required purchases of US Treasuries by domestic sources to well over $2,000bn. Foreigners have accumulated substantial dollar investments over the years and at the last date of record (end-June 2018) they totalled $19.4 trillion, to which we can add cash funds held through correspondent banks and short-term money instruments totalling a further $5.2 trillion as at last December. At over 110% of GDP, the total of $24.6 trillion in investments and cash is the highest dollar exposure ever recorded in foreign hands.

We must also mention the feedback of contracting international trade on other economies, because that will undermine US exports even more, as well as their import/export trade with each other.

Countries with an exporting surplus will therefore take a hit on their trade from a general contraction. But as countries such as Japan and Germany have consistently proved, the savings habit which is part and parcel of their trade surpluses will otherwise limit their difficulties to considerably less than those faced by the welfare spendthrifts who have euthanised their savers.[i] Britain, France and the Mediterranean states are at particular risk, and the prospects for currency dislocation from the additional strain on the euro-system can be expected to escalate into a European currency and banking crisis.

In a short time, the negative feedback from these chains of events is likely to further undermine state finances everywhere by deepening the trade contraction, reducing tax income and increasing welfare commitments. Table 1 above will reflect just the opening salvo in a deepening slump, an outcome that is likely to become impossible to avoid, with serious consequences for currencies as central banks respond with an increasing pace of monetary inflation.
The demise of unbacked fiat currencies


The coincidence of Smoot-Hawley tariffs and the top of the credit cycle in 1929 occurred under a gold standard. The mythology of that experience has left the gold standard blamed for the depression and fed into the inflationist policies we see today. In truth, it is a confusion of effect with the cause, and few economists appreciate the destructive role tariffs played at the peak of the credit cycle. Nevertheless, everyone knows what the policy response from central bankers this time will be: they will fund their governments’ deficits in conjunction with increasing the reserves of the commercial banks by the tested expedient of quantitative easing.

The precedent of QE for resolving difficulties of this type was the policy response to the great financial crisis. It is impossible for American and other savers, who are all but euthanised anyway, to fund escalating budget deficits when they are personally in debt, becoming unemployed, and their financial investments are suffering from vicious bear markets. The neo-Keynesian dictum is to encourage spending to the exclusion of saving, driven by the belief the great depression was exacerbated by a tendency to save. Instead, inflationism will replace savings, accelerating the destruction of personal wealth. In short, the central banks see no alternative to throwing the inflationary dice just one more time despite repeated failures to achieve anything positive in the past, other than their states’ survival.

While politically there appears to be no alternative to squeezing the last drops of blood from the productive private sector to support governments and the international banking system, the escalation of monetary inflation could finally destroy unbacked fiat currencies. Instead of repeating the gold-induced collapse of commodity and raw material prices in the 1930s, eventually prices will rise as fiat currencies sink, giving only a brief appearance of price stability. So, after an initial financial shock it is likely that residential property values, mining stocks and the share prices of businesses that can survive a currency collapse might begin to recover, measured in devaluing currency terms.

If so, it resolves nothing. The most pressing problem, besides the economic slump and the currency collapse, is the continuing crisis in government finances. It is commonly assumed that the devaluation of existing government obligations favours government. This naïve view does not take into account the cost escalation of future legally-mandated obligations on governments to provide continuing welfare and other services. It is difficult to envisage welfare-driven governments having the authority to reverse the socialising legislation of the last ninety years sufficiently in order to stabilise their finances.

However, an increase of the quantity of base currency by the central bank through QE and the accompanying expansion of bank reserves will continue to be seen as a practical monetary policy. It is only later the horrors for the general price level will become fully apparent. By then it will be too late, if it is not already, to address a growing loss of public trust in the currency’s purchasing power. In the case of the dollar, as soon as foreigners overexposed to it become aware of its trending direction, they are likely to accelerate their selling on the foreign exchanges, realising their losses on US Treasuries. This particularly applies to the Chinese and Japanese, America’s largest creditors, whose focus will have shifted from kowtowing to America’s trade policies to supporting their domestic economies.

With a falling dollar measured in yuan, yen and even euros (if that currency still exists by then) the general price level in America will begin to rise at an accelerating pace which can no longer be concealed through statistical management.

And so, the difference between the collapse that started in 1929 and the current hiatus is gold. Ninety years ago, through the medium of the dollar, prices were measured in gold at one ounce for $20.67. It led to a 40% devaluation of the dollar in January 1934. Today, while the actual tariffs proposed are less than those of Smoot-Hawley and not yet fully implemented, the monetary inflation behind the credit cycle has been considerably more extreme. If the combination of the two in 1929 remains a valid precedent for what is going to pass in the next year or two, today’s unbacked fiat dollars face a full-frontal challenge not only to financial asset values, but also to international and the American public’s faith in the dollar as a viable currency.
Escaping the fiat collapse


From the foregoing, it is clear that a series of events has now commenced that threatens to spark a worldwide cyclical credit crisis centred on that King Rat of currencies, the dollar. Other currencies face similar problems: twin deficits, a lack of savers, escalating government welfare commitments and a decline in tax income. These currencies are threatened with the same fate as the dollar, but perhaps not concurrently.

This will not come as a surprise to followers of Austrian business cycle theory. But Western central banks, vaguely understanding another credit crisis is likely, have tried to seal off the escape routes. They have largely persuaded their populations that gold is no longer money. They have instructed banks to limit cash withdrawals. They have protected their governments from a future systemic crisis by tightening regulations and enacting legislation for bail-ins to replace bail-outs. The effect of these measures in a crisis can only be guessed at. But they are likely to accelerate the destruction of a currency’s purchasing power, if, instead of encashing deposits (meaning people exit the banking system but not the currency), people are forced to exchange bank balances for physical goods and perhaps cryptocurrencies in order to escape systemic risk.

You might argue that small depositors are protected by deposit insurance, but it is not the small depositors that will start a stampede into alternatives to bank deposits. It will be larger depositors and holders of bank bonds who will protect themselves from bail-ins.

Currencies issued by nations which have retained a saving culture, and whose governments are not obligated to provide expensive welfare for their citizens, can survive if they take appropriate action. Undoubtedly, they will face persuasion by their own neo-Keynesian inflationists to keep their currencies “competitive”, at least initially. When this leads to escalating domestic interest rates, these policies are likely to be abandoned in favour of sound money in the form of gold backing, and the inflationists side-lined.

The currencies most likely to end up with gold backing are likely to be the Chinese yuan and Russian rouble. Both China and Russia have embraced gold as the time-honoured money, superior to ever-expanding fiat currencies. Besides stabilising the pan-Asian monetary situation for the benefit of Eurasian trade, a credible gold-exchange standard introduces monetary discipline and reduces interest rates towards those mutually agreed between lenders and borrowers of gold.

While we cannot forecast this outcome with certainty, we can see that the opportunity to escape currency destruction for Asia will be available. We can go even further, and say there will be no credible alternative, and that there are today specialists in the Russian and Chinese establishments far-sighted enough to understand the point. After all, Russia has already sold her dollars for gold, and China deliberately moved to control the global market for bullion. Furthermore, the last three months’ reports on the status of her reserves, show China appears to have stopped accumulating dollars and instead is selling them for gold. Importantly, now she does not mind advertising it.

China and Russia are in a similar position to Britain following the Napoleonic wars. Following the formal reintroduction of the gold standard in 1821 (the gold sovereign had been introduced in 1816) the value of government debt in private hands rose as interest rates fell and the government’s financial credibility improved. The wealth creation from this simple act of securing sound money was a major contributor to the success of the industrial revolution, which propelled Britain into her global pre-eminence. China has similar ambitions for the industrialisation of Asia. Furthermore, she understands it is only by allowing her citizens to accumulate personal wealth that her economic objectives can be achieved.

She would be stupid not to follow Britain’s nineteenth-century example.


[i] The term is Keynes’s, a desire he expressed in his General Theory.

Good morning

I only trade using the FXCM UK platform.

Take care.


Benjamin

March 9, 2019 8:30 AM

Hello

Please subscribe to my thread and I will be glad to share with you my knowledge of all the fundamentals that you need to improve your Forex trading results.

Best regards

Benjamin

NOTE TO ALL READERS OF MY THREAD. It was on March 9, 2006, 13 years ago today that I made my first live real trade with real funds. I started trading at Trade Freedom in Montreal using the Saxo platform. During June 2006, I moved all my business over to Man Financial in Montreal. I traded there until I moved my business to PFG Best in Chicago. My first $100,000 US funds account was opened and I traded there for the period of 35 days.

Please look at the following PDF file of my trades. You can count for yourself however I assure you that the first 673 Forex trades were all wins. I do not share this to brag just to celebrate the start of my Forex trading career.

file:///C:/Users/user/Downloads/ActiveReports%20Document%20Final%20Trades%20%20Sol.pdf


February 4, 2017 5:44 PM


I thought that I would let you see the Forex trades in 35 days on my LPOA for Cyberplanet.

Please give me some feedback.


Thanks

file:///C:/Users/user/Downloads/ActiveReports%20Document%20Final%20Trades%20%20Sol.pdf




From:
Sent: Thursday, February 16, 2012 12:03 AM
To: Ryan Suchet
Cc: GuyHuard;
Subject: Re: RE: AvaFX - Marketing Partner and Money Manager

February 15, 2012 4:41 PM GMT 9:41 PM

Ryan

We will be in touch on Thursday. Please give me a call on Thursday. I have some questions to ask you. Our corporation "Aviel Forex Learning Edge Corporation" will arrange an initial deposit of $50,000 US Funds. My associate, Guy Huard wanted along with myself to clarify the revenue flows. I probably would do about 500 trades of EUR/USD during the course of 30 days. That would mean $100,000 US EUR/USD pairs times 500.

Can you give us an idea of the approximate revenue flow for our company based on that volume. What would the spread be for trading EUR/USD ?

We deal with TD Canada Trust as our banker. With our teaching side of the business if we were to start by arranging for 24 demo accounts since our plans are to have two classes of 12 between the hours of 7:00 PM EST and 11:00 PM EST three times a week for 4 weeks. We give 24 hours of hands on instruction and at the end of the 30 days I recommend if they should trade their own funds or have us manage their funds under an "LPOA"

I am giving you a brief outline of our plans to help you better understand our business model.

Best regards


Aviel Forex Learning Edge Corporation


From: Ryan Suchet <[email protected]>
To:
Sent: Wednesday, February 15, 2012 12:54:21 PM
Subject: RE: RE: AvaFX - Marketing Partner and Money Manager

Hi Bruce,

How are you? Have you had a chance to review the below information yet?



Ryan Suchet
Executive Account Manager
Ava FX - Integrity is our most valuable currency

CAN: +1 (416) 800-2125 - USA : +1 (212) 941-9609
UK : + (44) (0) 8005200423 - AUS: +(61) (1) 800206496
FAX: +1 (646) 335-0333 - IRE: +353-1-90-10-120
E-mail: [b][size=2][email protected][/size][/b]- Website: http://www.avafx.com

Become a Marketing Partner: http://www.avapartner.com/?ref=25048
From: Ryan Suchet
Sent: Monday, February 13, 2012 8:00 PM
To:
Subject: RE: AvaFX - Marketing Partner and Money Manager

Hi Bruce,

It was nice to speak with you today.

Just to let you know about AvaFX, we are a licensed and regulated European broker, and one of the fastest growing retail brokers, with 150,000 registered customers, and monthly trading volumes of around $60 billion. We offer trading in foreign currencies, commodities like gold and crude oil, major stock indices from around Asia, Europe, North America, major US and European stocks, and US, German, and Japanese bonds, with leverage up to 400x.

Here is the IB sign-up link if you are interested: http://www.avapartner.com/?ref=25048
Once you sign up, you will receive a tracking link which will be used to track any customer/corporation you refer to AvaFX to ensure that you get full credit for it.

As discussed, I will set you up with the following commission structure:
0 to $100 million in monthly trade volume earns 20% of the spread revenue
Over $100 million in monthly trade volume earns 25% of the spread revenue

Attached is the corporate account application form, and some more information and projections of commissions.



These are the MT4 lot sizes on forex on the USD/CAD:
1.0 lot = 100,000 units = $250 margin
0.10 lot = 10,000 units = $25 margin
0.01 lot = 1,000 units = $2.50 margin

Here are our complete trading conditions: http://www.avafx.com/Trade-Conditions/

As we discussed, I believe the MT4 platform is a bit harder to use, however it is much more powerful and if you plan on being a Money Manager, it is the way to go. We can set you up with the Multi-Account Manager software, which includes a PAMM/LAMM setup. It is definitely the professional’s choice.

I believe it is best to do the following steps:
1) Sign up as an IB at: http://www.avapartner.com/?ref=25048
2) Try out the MT4 demo account to ensure that you are comfortable with the platform, the trading conditions, and AvaFX in general.
3) Once comfortable, open the corporate account you mentioned or a personal account and trade for yourself. Both can be created under your AvaPartner account so you receive credit for all referrals.
4) If you have customers who want you to trade for them, you can have them open a standard MT4 account. We will get you setup with the Money Manager account and connect their account to your so you can trade.

How does this all sound? Thank you.



Ryan Suchet
Executive Account Manager
Ava FX - Integrity is our most valuable currency

CAN: +1 (416) 800-2125 - USA : +1 (212) 941-9609
UK : + (44) (0) 8005200423 - AUS: +(61) (1) 800206496
FAX: +1 (646) 335-0333 - IRE: +353-1-90-10-120
E-mail: [b][size=2][email protected][/size][/b]- Website: http://www.avafx.com

Become a Marketing Partner: http://www.avapartner.com/?ref=25048


I work with several other trading educational centers around the world, and they all work on a similar model; They ask their students to open a free demo account at the beginning of the course (from AvaFX) and leave it at that. Our Sales and Support Teams are there to also further assist the customer and of course encourage them to open real trading accounts.

So you just need to sign up and you will receive some further advertising material and a dedicated tracking link to pass to your customers.

Here is the sign-up link if you are interested: http://www.avapartner.com/?ref=25048

Once you have signed up, please follow the tracking link to open your corporate account. However Shawn will be able to walk you through the whole process of getting the account opened and approved, as well as funded.

Thank you.



Ryan Suchet
Executive Account Manager
Ava FX - Integrity is our most valuable currency

CAN: +1 (416) 800-2125 - USA : +1 (212) 941-9609
UK : + (44) (0) 8005200423 - AUS: +(61) (1) 800206496
FAX: +1 (646) 335-0333 - IRE: +353-1-90-10-120
E-mail: [b][size=2][email protected][/size][/b]- Website: http://www.avafx.com

Become a Marketing Partner: http://www.avapartner.com/?ref=25048
From:
Sent: Thursday, February 16, 2012 12:03 AM
To: Ryan Suchet
Cc: GuyHuard;
Subject: Re: RE: AvaFX - Marketing Partner and Money Manager



May 2, 2012 10:49 PM

Shawn

Thanks for all your help today.

I traded this account for Cyber Planet from Hong Kong between October 2, 2007 and November 7, 2007. My first 673 trades were all wins in a row. In those days I traded with too much risk and held positions sometimes for 3 weeks. I was still learning my trade. I had a Net Profit of $19,246.02 US Dollars. Please share your thoughts after you look at the PDF File. I would rate myself as 65 out of 100 then. Today my skill level is between 85 to 90. My target is 95.

This file is for information purposes only. I trade much differently these days with an average ROI of about 10% a month. 80% of all my trades are profitable.

Thanks again for your help.



Currency Trader for Aviel Forex Learning Edge Corporation.

I work with several other trading educational centers around the world, and they all work on a similar model; They ask their students to open a free demo account at the beginning of the course (from AvaFX) and leave it at that. Our Sales and Support Teams are there to also further assist the customer and of course encourage them to open real trading accounts.

So you just need to sign up and you will receive some further advertising material and a dedicated tracking link to pass to your customers.

Here is the sign-up link if you are interested: http://www.avapartner.com/?ref=25048

Once you have signed up, please follow the tracking link to open your corporate account. However Shawn will be able to walk you through the whole process of getting the account opened and approved, as well as funded.

Thank you.



Ryan Suchet
Executive Account Manager
Ava FX - Integrity is our most valuable currency

CAN: +1 (416) 800-2125 - USA : +1 (212) 941-9609
UK : + (44) (0) 8005200423 - AUS: +(61) (1) 800206496
FAX: +1 (646) 335-0333 - IRE: +353-1-90-10-120
E-mail: [b][size=2][email protected][/size][/b]- Website: http://www.avafx.com







Currency Trader for Aviel Forex Learning Edge Corporation.