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Just for my reference

  • #81
  • Mar 7, 2019 10:25pm Mar 7, 2019 10:25pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} UJ out of all longs as think we are closing in on final stage here. looking for some consolidation prior to looking for shorts at these areas. {image} {image} {image}
UJ Really need to see another sell-off continue with the Index here.
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  • #82
  • Mar 7, 2019 10:31pm Mar 7, 2019 10:31pm
Reference GOLD - is this the hold area or back to 1240.
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  • #83
  • Edited 6:41am Mar 8, 2019 12:18am | Edited 6:41am
Quoting squawk
Reference GOLD - is this the hold area or back to 1240. {image}
By the way, Goldman Sachs is still bullish biased on Gold.......
I closed Gold sell position this Monday and now I am considering Sell reentry after checking COT data next week.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #84
  • Mar 25, 2019 2:31am Mar 25, 2019 2:31am
AUD10Y yields break through to an all time low....

Kiwi yields doing the same yet the Kiwi dollar has not reflected any of the move for the last 3 months and has been one of the strongest currency in play for 2019.

To be honest I am baffled by this>>

Wednesday if the RBNZ starts talking down rates theres a long way for the Kiwi to make up the yield negativity.

The spread in correlation between the NZDUSD and the AUDUSD is widening out to the largest in 4 years with not positive reasons on the Kiwi and seems mostly to do with the AN cross-rate value.
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  • #85
  • Mar 25, 2019 2:47am Mar 25, 2019 2:47am
Aussies 3month and 10year spread goes neg with US.
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  • #86
  • Mar 26, 2019 1:16am Mar 26, 2019 1:16am
Shanghai Index at reflection point for short.
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  • #87
  • Edited 7:07pm Mar 27, 2019 5:44pm | Edited 7:07pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} Update index closing in. {image} {image}
SPX My thoughts Analysis. 2820 level had calls from lots out there to hold, thoughts were always for the Volume GAP to close out first for it to run away to lower, too many trapped up top. I have 4 smaller positions in on the Index here but waiting for some volume to come in to get more seriously involved.
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  • #88
  • Mar 27, 2019 6:52pm Mar 27, 2019 6:52pm
Quoting squawk
AUD10Y yields break through to an all time low.... Kiwi yields doing the same yet the Kiwi dollar has not reflected any of the move for the last 3 months and has been one of the strongest currency in play for 2019. To be honest I am baffled by this>> Wednesday if the RBNZ starts talking down rates theres a long way for the Kiwi to make up the yield negativity. The spread in correlation between the NZDUSD and the AUDUSD is widening out to the largest in 4 years with not positive reasons on the Kiwi...
NZ02 Yields hit below AU and CAD again gapping down. NZ dollar starts to maybe follow the market consensus on IR rates now. Has a fair bit of ground to cover from my perspective on closing the GAPs between AUD and CAD. Prob take some time though.

Most of my NZ trades are on the AUD and JPY.

Kiwi 50 Index still proceeding higher so may reach 10000 now. Kiwi 50 move since GFC is now moving above more than 4 x since GFC far out ways the Aussie Index and now above Nasdaq and SPX return since GFC. From my view NZ will be hit the hardest from Global issues if they get worse from here.
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  • #89
  • Mar 27, 2019 7:13pm Mar 27, 2019 7:13pm
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  • #90
  • Mar 27, 2019 8:43pm Mar 27, 2019 8:43pm
Almost like the light switch is slowly starting to come on in NZ.

Latest Business Confidence reading.
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  • #91
  • Edited 10:53pm Apr 23, 2019 4:14pm | Edited 10:53pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} SPX My thoughts Analysis. 2820 level had calls from lots out there to hold, thoughts were always for the Volume GAP to close out first for it to run away to lower, too many trapped up top. I have 4 smaller positions in on the Index here but waiting for some volume to come in to get more seriously involved. {image} {image} {image} {image}
Hero trade has been trying to short the Index. I was stopped out from 2880. Small testing position so doesn't hurt the PL to much.

The last two crashes on the Index have completed double tops before crashing. I think best to stay out until a volume returns to the downside. My Bias is strong to downside move so the up move doesn't have any logic with me.

Better trade has been long bond market on the Aussie and Kiwi.
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  • #92
  • May 6, 2019 12:57am May 6, 2019 12:57am
Posting for reference for Yuan. Had this marked for a while. Waiting for short opp to appear after trade tension jawboning.
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  • #93
  • May 12, 2019 10:19pm May 12, 2019 10:19pm
Quoting squawk
Posting for reference for Yuan. Had this marked for a while. Waiting for short opp to appear after trade tension jawboning. {image} {image}
Yuan looks higher and like setup crab extension but have added some small positions in now. Trade talks will be unpredictable, Yuan and shang index trade has most scope of movement than most else at the moment and the most negative movement currently built in. See how this plays out this month.
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  • #94
  • May 13, 2019 3:50pm May 13, 2019 3:50pm
The Aussies keeps getting beaten up and looks like heading towards Jan flash crash area.

Headwinds
- Election (climax into this weekend)
- Rates drop mid and end year (cant see whats not priced in here)
- De-facto trade war trade (big unknown)

My trade pick is AUD/NZD at 103 - 104 range if it gets there for a longer term leg back to 108 - 110.

In my view US still has flight to safety run to playout on the currency and bonds, long term to come.
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  • #95
  • May 15, 2019 3:45pm May 15, 2019 3:45pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} NZ02 Yields hit below AU and CAD again gapping down. NZ dollar starts to maybe follow the market consensus on IR rates now. Has a fair bit of ground to cover from my perspective on closing the GAPs between AUD and CAD. Prob take some time though. Most of my NZ trades are on the AUD and JPY. Kiwi 50 Index still proceeding higher so may reach 10000 now. Kiwi 50 move since GFC is now moving above more than 4 x since GFC far out ways the Aussie Index and now above Nasdaq and SPX return since GFC. From my view NZ will be hit the hardest from...
The bubble formation continuing and building on the Kiwi 50 continues.
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  • #96
  • May 15, 2019 11:47pm May 15, 2019 11:47pm
On the radar EA. Aussie in post GFC valuation territory.

- Bad employment numbers
- Election this weekend
- Rate cuts (priced in) and maybe over extended
- Labor Government priced in?

- Trade war outcome unknown.
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  • #97
  • May 15, 2019 11:53pm May 15, 2019 11:53pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} Yuan looks higher and like setup crab extension but have added some small positions in now. Trade talks will be unpredictable, Yuan and shang index trade has most scope of movement than most else at the moment and the most negative movement currently built in. See how this plays out this month. {image} {image}
Yuan, will starting adding in some additional at 94 if shows.
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  • #98
  • May 17, 2019 6:15pm May 17, 2019 6:15pm
Quoting squawk
AUD10Y yields break through to an all time low.... Kiwi yields doing the same yet the Kiwi dollar has not reflected any of the move for the last 3 months and has been one of the strongest currency in play for 2019. To be honest I am baffled by this>> Wednesday if the RBNZ starts talking down rates theres a long way for the Kiwi to make up the yield negativity. The spread in correlation between the NZDUSD and the AUDUSD is widening out to the largest in 4 years with not positive reasons on the Kiwi...
I have now closed 70% of my kiwi trades with majority remaining on the the CAD. Lot of this may have play out from spread adjustment with the CAD and Aussie mid term but if you look at the long term spread adjustment still further needs to take place against the other commodity currencies. My view is this is a safer longer term area to trade this.
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  • #99
  • May 17, 2019 6:22pm May 17, 2019 6:22pm
NZDCAD taken profit on most as its just to volatile to a tweet from Trump. Pushed the BC leg further than I would have thought but money seemed to be pushing the AN cross rate wanting it lower.
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  • #100
  • May 17, 2019 6:25pm May 17, 2019 6:25pm
Quoting squawk
On the radar EA. Aussie in post GFC valuation territory. - Bad employment numbers - Election this weekend - Rate cuts (priced in) and maybe over extended - Labor Government priced in? - Trade war outcome unknown. {image} {image} {image}
EA in the area but trading Aussie will be better served after this weeks election.
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