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  • #80,841
  • Mar 7, 2019 4:30pm Mar 7, 2019 4:30pm
Quoting crackmyback
Guys, I don’t think this is going back up significantly any time soon and I’ll tell you why, but I’d love your thoughts on this. For the last three weeks the daily trading volumes that we see are almost half as much as an average week in the times before that. Usually a volatile day results in a pretty long bar on the volumes chart. Especially if it is a day as volatile as today. But we all know that most of the trading is done on the inter-bank market and they don’t publish their trading volumes. So the volumes that we see are mostly retail readers...
This pair has been in a volatility squeeze since early september i.e. the bollingers have traded inside the keltners (keltners set to 1.5 as per John Carter studies) and I would be shocked if come monday, the bollingers havent exited the keltners due to this weeks volatility, this leads me to all but expect a high probability of the weekly squeeze firing off short due to price action being below the ichimoku cloud and chikau span momentum indicator being below price from 26 bars ago. An explosive trend downward is how I am positioning myself for the coming weeks. Expect longer than average bearish trends on all timeframes and if you are a bull by nature and dont trade long for whatever reason, you might want to sit this one out for the near to medium future or maybe check USDCHF out!!
  • #80,842
  • Mar 7, 2019 4:36pm Mar 7, 2019 4:36pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} I love your chart but there is something missing it should show "Buy, buy, buy, sell, sell, sell, pray, pray, pray".
lol. kudos to you. you are right, I am gambling. I challenge any forex trader who thinks trading is "business". Trading is gambling based on statistical data.
As Above, So Below
  • #80,843
  • Mar 7, 2019 4:42pm Mar 7, 2019 4:42pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} lol. kudos to you. you are right, I am gambling. I challenge any forex trader who thinks trading is "business". Trading is gambling based on statistical data.
gambling is a business man. HUGE one!!!!
  • #80,844
  • Mar 7, 2019 4:48pm Mar 7, 2019 4:48pm
Quoting daveydaft
{quote} This pair has been in a volatility squeeze since early september i.e. the bollingers have traded inside the keltners (keltners set to 1.5 as per John Carter studies) and I would be shocked if come monday, the bollingers havent exited the keltners due to this weeks volatility, this leads me to all but expect a high probability of the weekly squeeze firing off short due to price action being below the ichimoku cloud and chikau span momentum indicator being below price from 26 bars ago. An explosive trend downward is how I am positioning myself...
On which time frame are you seeing the BB squeeze?
  • #80,845
  • Mar 7, 2019 5:34pm Mar 7, 2019 5:34pm
Quoting sqaguru
{quote} On which time frame are you seeing the BB squeeze?
Weekly chart the red dots below indicate bollinger squeeze once you see a green dot theres a few ways one can enter, personally I like to leg in i.e half of 1% trading capital initially, and depending on whether it fires off quickly or trades sideways ill go another full 1% when squeeze fires off which for me is take the low of the previous bar minus (for short, plus for long) ATR for 26 periods/2, about 75% of the time this leads to an explosive trend and it is relatively safe to add to position on every pullback for the duration of the trend, the kijun sen with ichimoku is an amazing stop loss simply add the buffer of ATR 26/2 and this should keep you in the trend for maximum profit i.e. it stops you out, you dont set take profit targets, I sometimes take off half my position at 2/1 but having backtested it is better overall to stay with this strategy.
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  • #80,846
  • Mar 7, 2019 6:23pm Mar 7, 2019 6:23pm
Quoting xpensive
{quote} gambling is a business man. HUGE one!!!!
only if you are the House. otherwise, just a "gambler"
As Above, So Below
  • #80,847
  • Edited 8:20pm Mar 7, 2019 6:41pm | Edited 8:20pm
Quoting Viron
{quote} i've got my kahunas
You sure dooo!!!

So tell me something. Did you trade this horrific range or just watched it? it did get back to October 18 level at some point...and you didn't bail out or think of bailing out then?

No matter....if you went thru the whole range and didn't jump ship then the kahunas are big and made of steeeel
  • #80,848
  • Mar 7, 2019 6:41pm Mar 7, 2019 6:41pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} only if you are the House. otherwise, just a "gambler"
If you continue with this "gambling" discussion cliché it will be 100% certain you get kicked out of this thread. Stop trolling and share valuable views around EURUSD... I will not repeat myself.

Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #80,849
  • Mar 7, 2019 6:58pm Mar 7, 2019 6:58pm
Quoting digger1
{quote} did ya drop an oar oh good lord ,, eod eod lol,,, cheers bud

sweet sweet lord Diggz,.. you know how religious I am lol lol

oars? what oars, I am kitesurfing
today is the day with the nephew so guess what I did....I left around noon and I didn't close a single position and I said at 7pm I will deal with it.....I was in an aquapark so I didn't even check my phone...totally immersed myself in the moment with the angel (and yes I sugared him up!! lol lol so it was fun!) and I am just looking at charts right now....delighted to say the least.

But peeps on the thread are getting me worried lollol about NFP tomorrow..so getting to reanalyze everything once again to be ready for tomorrow.

Sorry I haven't had a chance to check your posts on the other thread...i will catch up on the weekend!! Hope all super green on your end!!!
  • #80,851
  • Mar 7, 2019 7:30pm Mar 7, 2019 7:30pm
why people think possible up ...
  • #80,852
  • Mar 7, 2019 7:38pm Mar 7, 2019 7:38pm
Quoting Peace-maker
why people think possible up ...
Bulls are watching if 1.1183 will support or not. It can trigger strong upside correction.

Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #80,853
  • Mar 7, 2019 7:40pm Mar 7, 2019 7:40pm
Quoting Peace-maker
why people think possible up ...
If one believes that the down move completed at ~ 1.11757, then one technically expects a Fib retracement (up). A likely retracement is the daily PP which today corresponds to the Fib 38.2% point at 1.12308. So far, the weak bounce has not even hit the Fib 23.6% retracement point. Are traders so bearish that the down move will resume shortly? It seems that way, but this session does some crazy things sometimes.
  • #80,854
  • Mar 7, 2019 7:46pm Mar 7, 2019 7:46pm
thank you i'm just see gap... 1.05 that i'm fear to bull this time but you two right short here it bad thing
  • #80,855
  • Mar 7, 2019 7:54pm Mar 7, 2019 7:54pm
Quoting Peace-maker
thank you i'm just see gap... 1.05 that i'm fear to bull this time but you two right short here it bad thing
Worst case I could imagine today is a retest of the low or as far down as close to 1.11 which is a trend line. Tomorrow is US NFP. Next big move might not happen until then. One case I haven't covered is the fundamental case. I have no idea what EUR value is associated with today's financial announcement in Europe.
  • #80,856
  • Mar 7, 2019 8:10pm Mar 7, 2019 8:10pm
hi Ata , long time No C huh
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da n0o0b + $hit_Disturber
  • #80,857
  • Mar 7, 2019 9:51pm Mar 7, 2019 9:51pm
Quoting pipsy7
hi Ata , long time No C huh {image}
How is that a place to sell?
  • #80,858
  • Mar 7, 2019 11:01pm Mar 7, 2019 11:01pm
Ok, so we had a big down day. Normally there is a lot of pull back the next day but we are not normal, it is NFP. Anything can happen.

I put ATR on chart and it hardly moved from the big down day. I will wait to see reaction tomorrow but I suspect we will get a whipsaw, unless the numbers completely miss estimates so still wearing the range trade hat. Bias still slightly negative but gentile decline.

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Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #80,859
  • Mar 7, 2019 11:43pm Mar 7, 2019 11:43pm
Quoting crackmyback
Guys, I don’t think this is going back up significantly any time soon and I’ll tell you why, but I’d love your thoughts on this. For the last three weeks the daily trading volumes that we see are almost half as much as an average week in the times before that. Usually a volatile day results in a pretty long bar on the volumes chart. Especially if it is a day as volatile as today. But we all know that most of the trading is done on the inter-bank market and they don’t publish their trading volumes. So the volumes that we see are mostly retail readers...
I don't track volume in Forex and not I am not trading in currency futures right now as stretched thin for working capital (big commitments beans and bellys ATM)

My take on yesterday. Dragi talked dovish and trade was expecting neutral talk. The movers saw an opportunity to bust stops during low liquidity (NFP next day) so they drove it down and busted below the hard deck. No big deal, unless you got trapped in longs.

NFP will probably be a whipsaw so I will be selling high and buying low and closing as I go. Then I will pick a direction 20 ,minutes later or just bail out. I have meeting with investors at 10 am and Powell speaking so unless I have good read on direction, closing time at 9:30 NY
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #80,860
  • Mar 8, 2019 12:13am Mar 8, 2019 12:13am
Waiting for NFP figures, but this may go down further? What do you think? (─‿‿─)
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