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$ For The Week Of 10/16-With Some Trade Tips

  • #81
  • Oct 16, 2006 8:47pm Oct 16, 2006 8:47pm
Quoting NewstraderFX
Fed's Poole Sees Equal Chance Interest Rates Will Rise or Fall
i saw this and was surprised the dollar didnt weaken. this is the first time ive heard a voting fed offical saying there was even a slight possibility for rate cut. the bond market has been saying it, but not the fed officials!

Quoting NewstraderFX
If the numbers do come out in negative territory again, I think we might see the $ lose over 100 pips. Should be fun...
im looking at this from another angle (your first angle). i think if we get positive core PPI the dollar will rally hard. if we get negative PPI i dont see a trade.
Relax and be happy.
  • #82
  • Oct 17, 2006 1:35am Oct 17, 2006 1:35am
Yesterday, this broker warned me to be cautious about USD. Today, they have this:

Quote
Good Day!

Signals now back to neutral. Minor 4th wave correction almost over, USD poised for minor 5th wave up of the larger 3rd wave. Buy USD on dips

TRADE STRATEGY:

Sell GBP at 1.8625, stoploss 1.8730. Objective 1.8500, then 1.8400

Sell Euro at 1.2533, stoploss 1.2640. Objective 1.2440, then 1.2400

Buy USD vs Yen at 119.05, stoploss 118.20. Objective 120.50

Buy USD vs CHF at 1.2700, stoploss 1.2600. Objective 1.2820

Buy USD vs CAD at 1.1372, stoploss 1.1300. Objective 1.1450, then 1.1510

I am already positioned myself.. I hope this broker makes good their 5th call... The previous 4 that I have were all good.
  • #83
  • Oct 17, 2006 1:45am Oct 17, 2006 1:45am
Quoting BurgerKing
Yesterday, this broker warned me to be cautious about USD. Today, they have this:



I am already positioned myself.. I hope this broker makes good their 5th call... The previous 4 that I have were all good.
Btw, I'm located in Indonesia which is 1.53pm on Tuesday. Does it I can apply now?

Thanks!!
  • #84
  • Oct 17, 2006 2:39am Oct 17, 2006 2:39am
Quoting c1ro
Btw, I'm located in Indonesia which is 1.53pm on Tuesday. Does it I can apply now?

Thanks!!
I dont seem to understand what you mean..
  • #85
  • Oct 17, 2006 3:09am Oct 17, 2006 3:09am
Quoting BurgerKing
I dont seem to understand what you mean..
Ok, I mean are those forecasts valid for oct 17?

Thanks!!
  • #86
  • Oct 17, 2006 3:14am Oct 17, 2006 3:14am
Quoting BurgerKing
Yesterday, this broker warned me to be cautious about USD. Today, they have this:



I am already positioned myself.. I hope this broker makes good their 5th call... The previous 4 that I have were all good.
Thats interesting, because my broker every 10 trades idea given 8 are wrong..
Im pretty sure they dont like to help their clients

I can post the opposite of what they suggest
Now they suggest the opposite then you broker for the pound, so the opposite is to short the pound...but could be that this is one of the 2 correct they give sometimes, so you never know.

Anyway, I dont follow brokers, I follow only myself
In this moment Im neutral.
I wait for a better trade chance.
better few trades, but good
  • #87
  • Oct 17, 2006 9:58am Oct 17, 2006 9:58am
We've seen a lot of the profits taken out of the GBP-with the threat of a BoE rate hike back into play. I suggest you get the NIESR newsletter for important GBP info.

The Eur is likely to hang around 50 at least until the NAHB index is released. The PPI numbers were way too conflicting to trade-Bloomberg didn't even have a clear picture because the market was open to so much interpetation of the numbers. The core is up, but that was attributed mostly to autos, which the market discounted somewhat.

On the CPI tomorrow you will likely see the most important report of the week. A reading of .3 will result in the highest y/y rate seen since about '95. The Fed does put more importance in the PCE deflator, but the market will not be able to ignore anything higher then .2.

Lower readings on the core CPI will obviously further weaken the $-also watch the US bond rates as NZD should improve vs. the $ as their rate becomes more and more attractive...
  • #88
  • Oct 17, 2006 10:11am Oct 17, 2006 10:11am
I'm wondering how many of you are still sitting on Dollar Bull trades? Ok, nothing to be ashamed of (even if the trades end up being wrong) I come forward:

I'm still holding my GBP shorts. What about Merlin? Are you still in with your outlook on a Dollar Bullish market? (seeing what happened today as a correction?)

Peter.

Dollar Bulls
  • #89
  • Oct 17, 2006 10:17am Oct 17, 2006 10:17am
Peter,

I'm still holding onto my AUD/USD short trade.
  • #90
  • Oct 17, 2006 10:22am Oct 17, 2006 10:22am
I'm holding my gbp short through the cpi tomorrow, if the dollar continues to weaken I will close.
  • #91
  • Oct 17, 2006 10:29am Oct 17, 2006 10:29am
Quoting danegg7
I'm holding my gbp short through the cpi tomorrow, if the dollar continues to weaken I will close.
So, u think it was just a correction for USD?
  • #92
  • Edited 10:45am Oct 17, 2006 10:31am | Edited 10:45am
BLOOMBERG:
The producer price index declined 1.3 percent from August, the Labor Department said in Washington. The so-called core rate, which strips out energy and food, climbed 0.6 percent; excluding cars and trucks, it rose 0.1 percent. Production slipped 0.6 percent, the Federal Reserve reported, a retreat that exceeded economists' forecasts.
Treasury notes jumped as traders judged the figures make it less likely the Fed will consider resuming its interest-rate increases to further reduce inflation pressures. A tame reading on consumer prices tomorrow may reinforce speculation the central bank will keep borrowing costs steady through the start of next year. The producer price index declined 1.3 percent from August, the Labor Department said in Washington. The so-called core rate, which strips out energy and food, climbed 0.6 percent; excluding cars and trucks, it rose 0.1 percent. Production slipped 0.6 percent, the Federal Reserve reported, a retreat that exceeded economists' forecasts.

It looks like the market has completely ignored the auto portion of the PPI number. The EUR and GBP has only gotten stronger. Some profit taking could be there as well, but the CPI tomorrow will have a big impact on the overall opinions regarding the Fed.

We may also be seeing some buying into a negative number inthe NAHB index...not sure...
  • #93
  • Oct 17, 2006 10:33am Oct 17, 2006 10:33am
There appears to be a lot of "experts" who believe that yesterday and today were a case of the markets "taking a break" before they resume in their original direction. I hope they are right as I am in a GBP/USD sell trade that is negative.

Even the Dow is down today but everybody on CNBC seems to believe that it will hit 12,000 shortly.
  • #94
  • Oct 17, 2006 10:49am Oct 17, 2006 10:49am
Don't know who those "experts" are...but the least you can say about today is that the PPI number allowed traders who had been long in the $ since the NFP to definately take some profits...the number indicates some weakness in the $, but some doubts remain otherwise we would have seen a fmuch faster $ sell-off...but let's get that NAHB number @ 13.00 EDT and see where things are going...
  • #95
  • Oct 17, 2006 10:51am Oct 17, 2006 10:51am
Quoting 1Sundevil
There appears to be a lot of "experts" who believe that yesterday and today were a case of the markets "taking a break" before they resume in their original direction. I hope they are right as I am in a GBP/USD sell trade that is negative.

Even the Dow is down today but everybody on CNBC seems to believe that it will hit 12,000 shortly.
As far as I've seen the pair of GBP/USD still has more room to the upside.
  • #96
  • Oct 17, 2006 10:53am Oct 17, 2006 10:53am
Quoting 1Sundevil
I hope they are right as I am in a GBP/USD sell trade that is negative.
How true. Same goes for mine. big red numbers......Wait and see.

How would "Repair work" look like, then?

I often see that certain Resistance line must break for bigger gains upwards, so people sit through UP TO THAT resistance line (myself included), but once there the line brakes.....and all flood gates with it.....now I'm biting my ass, why I didn't close while I was still in lower negative numbers....now the trade will cost me more.....but if i close too early, I find out 2 days later that the trade surpased the resistance line and came all the way back to my original position....erasing my bad trading error.

AAAAAHHHHH.......... !

So what do you guys usually do? Close as early as possible, brutally, cold-hearted, like "don't care - wen't the wrong way, who cares" or do you sit through and see if the Resistance holds?

I know, this depends on size of the trade and if it is long, medium or short term......

Thanks for your input.

Peter.

PS: I have made both: closed out BEFORE it gets ugly, with the above mentioned possibility of a reverseal and i could have saved that loss AND I have sit through a trade (LIKE RIGHT NOW with my GBP short) and find out that it went from UGLY to UGLIER to UGGLIEST....:surprised

Wish you all luck and best outcome on your trades...(wait? only if you are not selling the $..... )
  • #97
  • Oct 17, 2006 11:01am Oct 17, 2006 11:01am
One thing you need to remember about fundamental trading and I'll use a baseball analogy:

Momentum is only as good as the last important fundamental release...

Traders minds change like the wind...fear and greed rule the markets...everyone is afraid of what everyone else thinks...and what they'll do...
  • #98
  • Oct 17, 2006 11:02am Oct 17, 2006 11:02am
Quoting petercross
How true. Same goes for mine. big red numbers......Wait and see.

How would "Repair work" look like, then?

I often see that certain Resistance line must break for bigger gains upwards, so people sit through UP TO THAT resistance line (myself included), but once there the line brakes.....and all flood gates with it.....now I'm biting my ass, why I didn't close while I was still in lower negative numbers....now the trade will cost me more.....but if i close too early, I find out 2 days later that the trade surpased the resistance line and came all the way back to my original position....erasing my bad trading error.

AAAAAHHHHH.......... !

So what do you guys usually do? Close as early as possible, brutally, cold-hearted, like "don't care - wen't the wrong way, who cares" or do you sit through and see if the Resistance holds?

I know, this depends on size of the trade and if it is long, medium or short term......

Thanks for your input.

Peter.

PS: I have made both: closed out BEFORE it gets ugly, with the above mentioned possibility of a reverseal and i could have saved that loss AND I have sit through a trade (LIKE RIGHT NOW with my GBP short) and find out that it went from UGLY to UGLIER to UGGLIEST....:surprised

Wish you all luck and best outcome on your trades...(wait? only if you are not selling the $..... )
I am not in the trade. My indicators show me that it is not going higher from here. Why not put a stop some pips above the resistance and shut down the PC ?
  • #99
  • Oct 17, 2006 11:17am Oct 17, 2006 11:17am
Quoting highway3000
I am not in the trade. My indicators show me that it is not going higher from here. Why not put a stop some pips above the resistance and shut down the PC ?
Nice said!!
  • #100
  • Oct 17, 2006 11:21am Oct 17, 2006 11:21am
For those who are in short, I believe the price will touch again 1.8690-1.8670 circa where will meet buyers again. If the trend for big players is LONG then the retracement will be probably contained no more down then 1.8685-1.8695
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