Quoting merlinDislikedi feel like everyone is accepting that the retail sales number was actually good when looking closer. i disagree, i think it was bad plain and simple.
my argument for why the retail sales number was indeed bad is twofold...
1. if consumers spend less on gas, they should spend those savings elsewhere. but that didnt happen. the absolute sales level is what drives the economy, and on that front the number looked very weak to me.
2. economists knew exactly how much gas prices dropped in September. so why did all of them miss the mark on their forecast?
i have to argue that the retail sales number was worse than expected, plain and simple. and the same goes for the NFP report. although we had a big revision, its the recent data that counts. both reports sucked.
now, you know i am a dollar bull right now, so no need to convince me of that. the reason i am even a dollar bull in the first place is that the dollar has been reacting positively to negative news for the past two weeks. that is one of the best signs i like to see. most are arguing that the news was actually good when taking a closer look, but it seems everyone only wants to take a closer look when the market doesnt act like it "should". when the market doesnt act like it should, my opinion is that you go with the market because something is going on that noone understands (learned this from Mark Fisher).
newstrader, you have some excellent analysis, im only posting this because you said you welcome debateIgnored
This time traders were bullish the dollar. Next time when they are bearish the dollar no one will care about revisions or what appears to be good behind a bad headline retail sales. It's a question of market sentiment.