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ReadtheMarket - Supply and Demand with Price Action

  • #4,601
  • Feb 22, 2019 1:42pm Feb 22, 2019 1:42pm
ah, brother, you are back, what an amazing surprise.

please show us some new tricks or refresh my poor memory

now reading your posts .......

Quoting Fxyogi
{quote} Lets wait for it together LT.
  • #4,602
  • Feb 22, 2019 2:11pm Feb 22, 2019 2:11pm
...
RIP RTM
  • #4,603
  • Feb 22, 2019 3:41pm Feb 22, 2019 3:41pm
hi, i'm used to be here, still trading using the core idea that i learned from IF and yogi.

i came back and post today is mainly due to i saw yogi back and got a little excited, and also communicate with another member who pm me earlier.

your trade is nice, but it reminded me of IF's trades that i don't see quite appropriate, for the following reasons:

1. where's your far left? why is ur entry,sl,tp?
2. yes, RR is awesome, 1:10 or 1:20, but what's your real RR after 100 trades? 1:1 or 1:2,
IF's trading charts tend to show 1:100 RR trades, is that the normal case? is that the appropriate expectation for newbies?
absolutely NOT! and keep posting only these huge wins instead of regular trades, or reasonable explanatory examples will only misguided newcomers......
3. on this so-called RTM path, each will have to develop his own logic, a self-containing market infrastructure in his mind. every'd better try to come up with one, and present it, or discuss hints, so that one's reading can grow a bit in the process. doing that helps, failing to do that (like me) is ok too. but not these 20RR trades without clear logic -- IF has posted enough already......

thanks, i'm sorry, if sounding harsh......

Quoting ahdat
I use to be a student of rtm when it was free. I've continued trading with these concepts, feel i have a pretty good grasp of things. Just curious is this the place where ex-students that don't want to pay for the school hang out at? Who kinda keeps things going here? I assume everyone that was associated with RTM now just focus on their school. Just looking for a place to talk trading. And in the spirit of RTM, I'll share a trade that just happened. {image}
  • #4,604
  • Feb 22, 2019 3:57pm Feb 22, 2019 3:57pm
Hi, Yogi

i've suffered from so many this kind of losses that nowadays i accept it as a failure of PA since I cannot find a clear-set rules on how far (higher) I should allow the FO to develop.

in this chart, the "FO" reached a target (to me), so no longer a FO, thus, it is more like a finished leg.

since i don't have time waiting for retrace in everyday life, now i mainly touch trades. i'd taken short in the middle blue box that made the PA, it is a A-quality setup to me. if it failed, i'll short again at my red box, for which i'd be quite cautious since the red box is wide. but in reality, the red box works fine though this time......

anyway, just using your chart to update what i see nowadays....... have a nice weekend!

Quoting Fxyogi
This is for who follows IF posts sincerely . Bit more advanced but i am not going to give away instead you can find the answers on your own. This NZ eng happened from a FL , those who trade this with conventional RTM method will loose. because their stop is just above that FL. but priced faked this FL and entered another scale and turned down. Is there any way to identify the FO before it happens and how far price can travel in another scale is bigger questions. if you can find the answers then ...........
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  • #4,605
  • Feb 22, 2019 5:58pm Feb 22, 2019 5:58pm
It seems like a lot of people that are learning prefer to look at pretty charts with everything explained to them, than to take the time and dissect the chart and try to figure out themselves why the trade was made, or ask more meaningful questions. I was hoping someone would’ve analyzed my trade in their own charts and attempted to explain the trade.

Everything about rtm is pretty much already explained. The concepts really are not that hard. Putting in the work to really understand it, and actually trading is hard.

Quoting charvo
hi, i'm used to be here, still trading using the core idea that i learned from IF and yogi. i came back and post today is mainly due to i saw yogi back and got a little excited, and also communicate with another member who pm me earlier. your trade is nice, but it reminded me of IF's trades that i don't see quite appropriate, for the following reasons: 1. where's your far left? why is ur entry,sl,tp? 2. yes, RR is awesome, 1:10 or 1:20, but what's your real RR after 100 trades? 1:1 or 1:2, IF's trading charts tend to show 1:100 RR trades, is that...
RIP RTM - long live Nonsense Trading
  • #4,606
  • Feb 22, 2019 7:06pm Feb 22, 2019 7:06pm
Quoting charvo
Hi, Yogi i've suffered from so many this kind of losses that nowadays i accept it as a failure of PA since I cannot find a clear-set rules on how far (higher) I should allow the FO to develop. in this chart, the "FO" reached a target (to me), so no longer a FO, thus, it is more like a finished leg. since i don't have time waiting for retrace in everyday life, now i mainly touch trades. i'd taken short in the middle blue box that made the PA, it is a A-quality setup to me. if it failed, i'll short again at my red box, for which i'd be quite cautious...
Hi charvo,
May I ask you......

I just not sure with RTM today cause it may be very beyond this thread.
For what I get from this thread it is 3 Drive and the first TG is still have not touched yet.
Ummm....
But I calculate this. And this is not 100 R trade.

I try to figure touch trade from MPLs and not really on its left shoulder. I guess the 100 R trade is actually from a PA trade then enter with touch trade setup...

Correct me please.......
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RIP RTM
  • #4,607
  • Feb 22, 2019 8:54pm Feb 22, 2019 8:54pm
Quoting charvo
Hi, Yogi i've suffered from so many this kind of losses that nowadays i accept it as a failure of PA since I cannot find a clear-set rules on how far (higher) I should allow the FO to develop. in this chart, the "FO" reached a target (to me), so no longer a FO, thus, it is more like a finished leg. since i don't have time waiting for retrace in everyday life, now i mainly touch trades. i'd taken short in the middle blue box that made the PA, it is a A-quality setup to me. if it failed, i'll short again at my red box, for which i'd be quite cautious...
Hi Charvo ,

I think answer lies in the different time frames/scales.And there is this IF webinar in youtube more than an hour, speaking this scenario.
To elaborate further. In one scale engulf ,can reach a target in another lower scales. But what govern is always this higher scales. We have not even started speaking about this issue. Because this can cause lot of failure trades and that is always heart breaking.

imagine you have you 4HR TF you found an eng . and you go 1min chart and see it has reached a tg in that TF . Because 1min highs and lows will not be reflected in the 4HR TF. So what is truth??

Now there is a super question , what if you saw an eng in lower TF FL and and when you go HTF you saw the eng as it is but then your origin what you saw in LTF is a no mans land in HTF . Should you trade or not to trade?.

Without you answering these question trading this method is a death sentence. But if we have proper MM yea you still can win . when we take 20RR trades i have the licence to lose 19 times but still i got a winner.
  • #4,608
  • Edited 9:40pm Feb 22, 2019 9:30pm | Edited 9:40pm
hi, i'm sorry that i cannot connect your question to the chart, not sure what you ask in that chart. in your chart, you define the upper and lower boundaries very well. i would also observe PA within those 2 boxes.

it might be more interesting to communicate what RTM method is about in our each mind's.
i must say the following/below is my own reflection, and i tell it more for your correction than for my statement ---- i could be very wrong.

RTM, i guess, won't be quite beyond this thread. and IF's own trading could be quite mediocre, unless there's proof saying otherwise, which he can never show over the years. He did show some LIVE trading records over the years if you dig deep, however, not the style of "minimal DD, 50R winning trades everyday..." far from it......

What IF showed, is many hints, these hints show how market makers (MM, he called ITs) drive the market. That's super fundamental for us to start to understand/read the PA. However, unfortunately, it is merely the 1st step to really interpret the PA mechanics. If we think, oh, i got IF's idea, and we'll make money.......we'll be phucked hard by the market,.......
the remaining journey for each of us, is to find a self-containing interpretion of the PA mechanics.

For example, IF claimed that an engulf will always indicate the price's future direction with extremely rare failures. This claim is NOT proved by anyone with any records. but it is not important if this claim is true or false. it is important that the mechanism behind this claim. So there is a market maker can almost perfectly control a pair in FX market, no matter it is within 5 minutes or 1 year. Now do I, an adult with some senses, agree to this claim?

For myself, a huge awakening moment is when I started to accept that even MM could often fail, because MM tom like to phuck MM jack no less than us retailers. and none of those MM is able to control the whole earth FX market. That is, I would take 30% or even 50% losers (or PA failures) as a fact and still trade the market. If we examine those equity graphs boasted in RTM.com, their hit-rate ranged from 60%~90% (with RR reversely correlated of coz), that's more like what i guessed.

therefore, "100R" or "fail to reach 1st TG" depends on exactly the same thing -- luck. Or in more scientific words: chance.
Indeed, we are able to expand RR to our favor, but there'll be a cost -- time. If we would spend our life waiting when price returns to a FL, and watching closely by our computer for that, we can turn 5RR to 10RR. but can you always(mathematically you have to) wait and watch that? I have lots of life errands to attend to, I cannot. but 2RR, 3RR is super for me already......

See the chart for my notes.

heck, just an exchange, hope there's 1 cent, at least for me, lol

my interpreting of your chart below.

Quoting hendzwoter
{quote} Hi charvo, May I ask you...... I just not sure with RTM today cause it may be very beyond this thread. For what I get from this thread it is 3 Drive and the first TG is still have not touched yet. Ummm.... But I calculate this. And this is not 100 R trade. I try to figure touch trade from MPLs and not really on its left shoulder. I guess the 100 R trade is actually from a PA trade then enter with touch trade setup... Correct me please....... {image}
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  • #4,609
  • Feb 22, 2019 9:34pm Feb 22, 2019 9:34pm
Quoting charvo
hi, i'm sorry that i cannot connect your question to the chart, not sure what you ask in that chart. in your chart, you define the upper and lower boundaries very well. i would also observe PA within those 2 boxes. it might be more interesting to communicate what RTM method is about in our each mind's. i must say the following/below is my own reflection, and i tell it more for your correction than for my statement ---- i could be very wrong. RTM, i guess, won't be quite beyond this thread. and IF's own trading could be quite mediocre, unless there's...
Cant agree more on this.
  • #4,610
  • Feb 22, 2019 9:53pm Feb 22, 2019 9:53pm
Hey, my brother

I did try to get this scale solved, but i failed. I see what you said, but I cannot apply it well in reading charts.

but in order to let me think it over again, could you please clarify 2 things for me? see your quote, please.

"see it has reached a tg in that TF" ---- that TF means m1 TF?
"what you saw in LTF is a no mans land" ---- you mean, the LTF engulf I saw is insignificant/hidden on higher scale?

tonight, let me think about it......

Quoting Fxyogi
{quote} Hi Charvo ,
imagine you have you 4HR TF you found an eng . and you go 1min chart and see it has reached a tg in that TF . Because 1min highs and lows will not be reflected in the 4HR TF. So what is truth?? Now there is a super question , what if you saw an eng in lower TF FL and and when you go HTF you saw the eng as it is but then your origin what you saw in LTF is a no mans land in HTF . Should you trade or not to trade?.
  • #4,611
  • Feb 22, 2019 9:59pm Feb 22, 2019 9:59pm
Quoting charvo
Hey, my brother I did try to get this scale solved, but i failed. I see what you said, but I cannot apply it well in reading charts. but in order to let me think it over again, could you please clarify 2 things for me? see your quote, please. "see it has reached a tg in that TF" ---- that TF means m1 TF? "what you saw in LTF is a no mans land" ---- you mean, the LTF engulf I saw is insignificant/hidden on higher scale? tonight, let me think about it...... {quote}
see it has reached a tg in that TF" ---- that TF means m1 TF? Yes thats right

"what you saw in LTF is a no mans land" ---- you mean, the LTF engulf I saw is insignificant/hidden on higher scale? While engulf still remain, Source of origin (meaning is that the high or low causing the origin) dissapear
  • #4,612
  • Feb 22, 2019 11:28pm Feb 22, 2019 11:28pm
i thought a while, these are what have troubled me for years in fact,

1. when ltf target is engulfed (or reached), do we consider this event when watching higher scale chart?
---- i'll ignore this event, if this ltf target is not significant to htf price action
2. when a ltf engulf's origin is not seen on htf, do we consider this event when watching higher scale chart?
---- still tradable, but SL needs to be much wider (since the real origin is on htf -- but in LIVE it is very difficult to decide).

i still don't believe my answers right. but that's what I probably choose, because the choice seems suit best to my experiences (so that I can stick to it).

but one thing I strongly feel is: these 2 scenarios are actually asking the same question: how to deal with ltf targets? ...... about to go sleep, these could be very stupid answers, lol......

Quoting Fxyogi
{quote} see it has reached a tg in that TF" ---- that TF means m1 TF? Yes thats right "what you saw in LTF is a no mans land" ---- you mean, the LTF engulf I saw is insignificant/hidden on higher scale? While engulf still remain, Source of origin (meaning is that the high or low causing the origin) dissapear
  • #4,613
  • Feb 22, 2019 11:40pm Feb 22, 2019 11:40pm
This is an interesting topic in regards to how valid the RTM methods are, and what to expect as a new trader. There seems to be some bad blood with IF and FF, and i can still sense it. I wasn't part of FF before so i don't really know what happened, but i can try to answer some of these questions from my perspective and experience:

a. The engulf isn't an iron rule (even though its presented that way). Understanding scales is extremely important, but scales is a hard thing to fully grasp. I think there are 2 things to this. 1, you need to understand where price is coming from. If its making a HTF move and trending really strongly, it can break rules in the lower timeframe. 2, If there are orders/better level beyond the zone (like in the chart from fxyogi) price can hit that before turning.

b. Sometimes, IF comes across as he's "transcended" price reading and can think like an IT. He'll make these crazy trades but can't really explain them. He just "knows" the ITs were going to do that a play a trick there. That's pretty annoying, but it doesn't mean he's lying.

c. I dont know if he's ever said 100R trades every day, nor should that ever be the expectation. There may be maybe a few 100R trades a month, the market just doesn't move enough for that. I know he's said there's often several 5R-20R trades a day. He also doesn't have winners all the time. He admits he breaks even quite a bit (with some losses). I think i saw a trade summary of his where there were like 2 or 3 40-50% trades, and 7 or 8 break even/scalp trades. So I agree that there's a high degree of chance to hit those big runners.

d. Ive seen a number of people at RTM become very successful at scalping. A lot of low RR trades with 90%+ success rates. Very rarely do i see people become successful making consistent high R trades. But if you guys have read Salivan's journal, that guy is a beast. His trades have a minimum of 10R, with 90%+ success rate, and he posted most of his trades in his journal. I spent 2 weeks dissecting his journal and every single trade he made. Its crazy, i still don't know how he sees it so clearly. But the proof is there, it's possible. I would say scalping is the MUCH easier route to success.

e. I agree, i think IF over plays how the ITs are controlling the markets. I think there are ITs, hedge funds, trading floors, etc... everyone trying to take each other's money. But in order to put in a large order with out moving the market, you need things like tricks and compression to fill your orders. That's what we should be looking for and trading.

I think people want the market to be simple, so they want these rules to simply follow and make money. Then get upset when they realize the market is not so simple. I've seen every rule, strategy, theory work, and then not work. I can't see how we can distill the market to simple rules and pull off 80% success rates consistently in all market conditions. There's just so much to factor in. With enough screen time you get better and better instincts of trades that will and won't work, with PA being a guide. I mean there are tons of other people making money not following RTM. They're just looking at the same charts we are. Remember, the market is hard. You have to be better than 90% of the people out there. Screen time and deliberate practice is key, there's no secret strategy.
RIP RTM - long live Nonsense Trading
  • #4,614
  • Feb 23, 2019 12:41am Feb 23, 2019 12:41am
There is accurate way of reading the price. But to trade successfully we no need to know all with except proper trading Psychology.

There is a great danger coming when we boost up our ego with accurate price reading . Because over confident blows the account. Comparing to this ,those who with great trading career has less accuracy of price reading . This is the funny contrast.

In my opinion price reading is easier , emotional control is the difficult task.

"MIND IS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AND FUNDAMENTAL TOOL FOR SUCCESS "
  • #4,615
  • Feb 23, 2019 12:45am Feb 23, 2019 12:45am
Selling opp in GU and CADJ, EJ

Buy OPP in EA

Great days ahead for us.
  • #4,616
  • Feb 23, 2019 2:38am Feb 23, 2019 2:38am
Further to the above conversations, I'd like to have discussion on the charts.
Can I invite your comments for the below charts which might interest you?

- The first chart

1. Buy order was placed as TT to anticipate price reaction at FL marked on the chart
2. The price did not stopped by the marked FL, but broke it instead
3. Hindsight shows the price stopped by an order ignored supply way back to the left

The hindsight shows that DD would have had been huge if TT was performed, however, that marked FL appeared to be a legit spot to place buy orders.
If not TT, but just staring at the screen, it could be as well challenging to enter the order just at the level where the price turned

Guess Charvo has the this same issue, so how t to manage this entry before hand? any comment welcome!

And this leads to the next chart reading and prepare for the next week's trading.
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  • #4,617
  • Feb 23, 2019 2:51am Feb 23, 2019 2:51am
the 2nd chart for the interest of next week

1. if just looked the green circle, it is Eng and broke the FL marked as 1 , which suggested strongly to take Sell position
2. however, marked circle appears to be the target and reached the origin of the move up
3. trading plan next week

As Sell position is favorable, and without staring at the screen, where will Sell order be placed as TT? Looks almost like guess game right now? do you agree?

1. Flag 1 ?
2. Flag 2 ?
3. Or D/P to break S/R
4. Or anything missing?

Thanks, Guys. Have a nice weekend !
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  • #4,618
  • Feb 23, 2019 2:54am Feb 23, 2019 2:54am
Your seeing is sound conventionally....

It is an engulf......
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RIP RTM
  • #4,619
  • Edited 3:57am Feb 23, 2019 3:42am | Edited 3:57am
Quoting Fxyogi
Selling opp in GU and CADJ, EJ Buy OPP in EA Great days ahead for us.
I am trying

GU
I think the green box has no remaining order
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EJ
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CADJ waiting for FO
M1 eng
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CADJPY FO zone
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EA
I dont understand yet. lol
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My knowledge is limited
But, market will tell
  • #4,620
  • Feb 23, 2019 4:26am Feb 23, 2019 4:26am
I agree with you 100% brotha.

Quoting Fxyogi
There is accurate way of reading the price. But to trade successfully we no need to know all with except proper trading Psychology. There is a great danger coming when we boost up our ego with accurate price reading . Because over confident blows the account. Comparing to this ,those who with great trading career has less accuracy of price reading . This is the funny contrast. In my opinion price reading is easier , emotional control is the difficult task. "MIND IS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AND FUNDAMENTAL TOOL FOR SUCCESS "
RIP RTM - long live Nonsense Trading
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