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Pivot Trading

  • #25,601
  • Edited 1:43pm Feb 19, 2019 1:24pm | Edited 1:43pm
EUR/GBP is there.

This is a negative swap trade, it isn't for everyone. I expect the length of this trade to be 3-5 days.

BE AWARE of the news, the run up is because there is hope a deal will be made tonight before the British Parliament takes over. So there could yet be another spike up, also could be a spike down. Big news is coming... more big moves will be too. Don't think you can put a position on without a stop or without keeping a watchful eye on this trade.

I'm not fully in the trade yet. I don't want to chase, these trades usually always double tap and a bit more before reversal.
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  • #25,602
  • Feb 19, 2019 2:22pm Feb 19, 2019 2:22pm
Quoting asyurei3
EUR/GBP is there. This is a negative swap trade, it isn't for everyone. I expect the length of this trade to be 3-5 days. BE AWARE of the news, the run up is because there is hope a deal will be made tonight before the British Parliament takes over. So there could yet be another spike up, also could be a spike down. Big news is coming... more big moves will be too. Don't think you can put a position on without a stop or without keeping a watchful eye on this trade. I'm not fully in the trade yet. I don't want to chase, these trades usually always...
This is the area to look at possible longs
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  • #25,603
  • Feb 19, 2019 2:54pm Feb 19, 2019 2:54pm
Quoting Contadino
{quote} Well, seems like there’s nothing else to do. At my age, some help would be appreciated but in the end, i will live with it. Thanks again Davit. Bye.

On Feb 6, you unsubscribed from this thread and have been on half a dozen since....looks like you just need to decide what you really want to do.
  • #25,604
  • Feb 19, 2019 3:27pm Feb 19, 2019 3:27pm
Closed EC+700
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #25,605
  • Feb 19, 2019 3:53pm Feb 19, 2019 3:53pm
Some of you might be wondering why I closed EC
Fine lets go over why.
From left candle to right

WP major R/S
1st candle.Engulfing bear candle
2nd candle.Doji
When a market’s open and close are almost at the same price point, the candlestick resembles a cross or plus sign – traders should look out for a short to non-existent body, with wicks of varying length.
This doji’s pattern conveys a struggle between buyers and sellers that results in no net gain for either side. Alone a doji is neutral signal, but it can be found in reversal patterns such as the bullish morning star and bearish evening star.
3rd candle larger bull candle then previous doji.
4th another doji

The reason I waited because after 1st engulfing bear candle I was waiting for a continuation of that move which did not come.

When you put all together Bear momentum is not looking great hence taking my profits out of the market.

What I anticipate may happen back to 50 test and may provide reload.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #25,606
  • Feb 19, 2019 3:58pm Feb 19, 2019 3:58pm
Quoting Davit
Some of you might be wondering why I closed EC Fine lets go over why. From left candle to right WP major R/S 1st candle.Engulfing bear candle 2nd candle.Doji When a market’s open and close are almost at the same price point, the candlestick resembles a cross or plus sign – traders should look out for a short to non-existent body, with wicks of varying length. This doji’s pattern conveys a struggle between buyers and sellers that results in no net gain for either side. Alone a doji is neutral signal, but it can be found in reversal patterns such...
What do you think about if we contributors gather these kind of posts' link about price action and put them on the first post of this topic? It can be a good summary of thousands of page. I started to read since the page 500 again. I can collect the link time to time or if any one eager can also share.
  • #25,607
  • Feb 19, 2019 4:02pm Feb 19, 2019 4:02pm
Quoting MoneyTalks58
{quote} What do you think about if we contributors gather these kind of posts' link about price action and put them on the first post of this topic? It can be a good summary of thousands of page. I started to read since the page 500 again. I can collect the link time to time or if any one eager can also share.
I think best people read this site on PA which I will post on 1st page.
https://www.theforexguy.com/price-action-strategy/

Does a wonderful job of putting things in context.Its lot more then just candle patterns.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #25,608
  • Feb 19, 2019 4:02pm Feb 19, 2019 4:02pm
Davit thanks a lot for explanation. Now i feel like my interpretation of the candles needs adjustment. I closed 3/4 of everything left few to run in NO Loss. Reason for me was closing at WP, I saw first rejection from WP, that was my first signal, Second test and another rejection. Thats where i closed 3/4 of the orders. But i didnt even think to see it that deeper like you did.
  • #25,609
  • Feb 19, 2019 4:14pm Feb 19, 2019 4:14pm
Quoting denisius
Davit thanks a lot for explanation. Now i feel like my interpretation of the candles needs adjustment. I closed 3/4 of everything left few to run in NO Loss. Reason for me was closing at WP, I saw first rejection from WP, that was my first signal, Second test and another rejection. Thats where i closed 3/4 of the orders. But i didnt even think to see it that deeper like you did.
another thing to recognize what Mark Douglas says "anything can happen"
Which means you can do all correct actions and price can drop next second anyway and that's fine because to me price is a liquid thing.Japanese candles are indicators freezing time price into a shape but price obviously is continuously flowing between buyers and sellers (this should always be back of your mind). Pivots to me magically work gauging MM moves and times to a T overall my Edge I think is dynamic which makes my trading fearless basically stress free.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #25,610
  • Feb 19, 2019 4:39pm Feb 19, 2019 4:39pm
My bias about tomorrow FOMC is dovish, before that and after todays USD's bearish movement I expect another USD bullish movement. Because of that made a short shot before AUD wage/growth news. Generally I was thinking to short AUD and picked that one. Lets see.

Edit: I can decide AUD long also before tomorrow's employement news. Being flexible is an important issue I guess.
Edit2: Put sl to breakeven.
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  • #25,611
  • Feb 19, 2019 4:39pm Feb 19, 2019 4:39pm
Something I want to get out of my chest.Its important
You'll read lots of science fiction conspiracy theories by "experts" here at FF like Forex is moved by single entity etc.Become totally cryptic to read etc.
This is categorically false.Forex is tremendously huge to be controlled by single entity.Amount of volume being exchanged is in trillions not easy to hide this volume for so long if it was single entity..Fact is even big banks market makers lose money in Forex and this fact alone illustrates that players are multi and competition is fierce!

How typically big Banks Market makers fill their orders

Every trade that is executed in the forex markets has to have a buyer and seller and when this takes place then we have a trade. This normally happens in a fraction of a second electronically but in essence, each time you enter a buy trade you are being matched with someone who is happy to enter a sell position and take the opposite side of your trade. If this doesn’t happen then there wouldn’t be a trade. Why is this so important? Because it highlights the problems that large banks have which small traders don’t. Any retail trader is able to place whatever position size they wish into the market without ever fearing slippage or bad fill. Granted slippage may take place during high impact news items such as central bank announcements but on the whole, most of the executed trades are done instantaneously.
Now if you’re a retail trader trading 1 standard Lot then you won’t have any problems with being filled at the price you want. Imagine you’re trading 100 Lots or 500 Lots or 1000 lots, these are larger positions to put into the market at any one time and it’s much more difficult to find someone to take the other side of the trade at the exact price and the exact time that you want and therefore might not be filled at a great price. Well, what could you do in such a situation? You have one of three options:
Option 1:
You could either bite the bullet and get executed at whatever price you are able to get, the only problem here is that you won’t be getting the best price possible for your trade which eats into your profits.
Option 2:
You could wait for the price to get to the price level you want so that you get the best execution possible and buy or sell at a much more favorable price – this is great but what if the price doesn’t get to the level you want for you to execute your trade? You will either be forced to walk away without making a trade or be forced to take whatever price you can get if doing the trade is absolutely essential
Option 3:
You force the price to get to the level at which you want to transact by cleverly manipulating other smaller traders to push the market in the direction you want it to go. Once you get the price to the level you want then you can carry out your transaction. How can you do this? By taking massive positions and exercising your muscle. This is similar to when large companies and conglomerates bully smaller businesses out of the market through aggressive competition.

Targeting price towards stops /limit orders triggers sudden liquidity which fills MM orders and why just about every swing ends with a spike!
Now you understand why sudden drop or spike of price is no guarantee that price will travel same direction of spike.Often its the opposite specially towards swing tops bottoms.

I hope this explains it
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #25,612
  • Feb 19, 2019 4:54pm Feb 19, 2019 4:54pm
I lost my capital in December (when we should avoid trading). I am taking small steps to build it back. Thanks to Davit and the rest who shared their valuable insights here.
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  • #25,613
  • Edited 5:08pm Feb 19, 2019 4:56pm | Edited 5:08pm
Why is this knowledge critical.Because suppose you are seating on DD EU you bought at 1310 and price sudden drops to 1280 typically retail traders place 20pips below round numbers/major R/S trend lines,Double tops bottoms etc.(why Brokers always push firm SL placed)
Price drives to 1270 then 65 assuring all stops cleared then swings back up 13 and higher.Meanwhile you have the brown bag in your hand with angry nerves.
Myself I would of added more longs at 65 and either get out BE at say 1280 or hold for more which typically what I do.
Now you understand why knowing how prices get filled helps about managing losses.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #25,614
  • Feb 19, 2019 5:00pm Feb 19, 2019 5:00pm
That AUD inflation news confirms my thoughts. Looking very likely that AUD will blink first and lower interest rates first before NZD. Look for more weak AUD action. I would be shocked if any data for AUD will be good this week, Lowe speaks Thursday I now expect him to likely send the AUD lower, will see how the PA is before. If the AUD crushed before Thursday then maybe Lowe will try to help it recover. All just ideas. Keeping an eye on what the Central Bankers and the Data says is really such a game changer.

Knowing when likely Good news will be priced in as Good news, and Bad news priced in as Bad news is a bit easier when you put the puzzle together. Understanding this takes experience, no time to start like today! If you follow it for years and gain experience, you will know what the central bankers will likely do before they do. Really a puzzle worth putting together.

This isn't saying that AUD is dead, the currency will have bounces. Keep in mind there is tons of money short AUD, so there will be short squeezes.

Hope this post was useful.
  • #25,615
  • Feb 19, 2019 5:05pm Feb 19, 2019 5:05pm
Quoting asyurei3
That AUD inflation news confirms my thoughts. Looking very likely that AUD will blink first and lower interest rates first before NZD. Look for more weak AUD action. I would be shocked if any data for AUD will be good this week, Lowe speaks Thursday I now expect him to likely send the AUD lower, will see how the PA is before. If the AUD crushed before Thursday then maybe Lowe will try to help it recover. All just ideas. Keeping an eye on what the Central Bankers and the Data says is really such a game changer. Knowing when likely Good news will...
Its minor market already knows this is the same story not just in Australia but US EU Japan NZ Canada slight red is not bad actually
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #25,616
  • Feb 19, 2019 5:08pm Feb 19, 2019 5:08pm
Nice profile Picture Davit
  • #25,617
  • Feb 19, 2019 5:11pm Feb 19, 2019 5:11pm
Quoting darshanaint
Nice profile Picture Davit
thanks its actually me
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #25,618
  • Feb 19, 2019 5:13pm Feb 19, 2019 5:13pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Its minor market already knows this is the same story not just in Australia but US EU Japan NZ Canada slight red is not bad actually
hellow old brother... how r u there ? so awesome i see how you share your methode and experience to trader over the world my friend ....


keep in touch and stay green always ....

iqyu5an
not euphoria follower
  • #25,619
  • Feb 19, 2019 5:13pm Feb 19, 2019 5:13pm
Quoting asyurei3
That AUD inflation news confirms my thoughts. Looking very likely that AUD will blink first and lower interest rates first before NZD. Look for more weak AUD action. I would be shocked if any data for AUD will be good this week, Lowe speaks Thursday I now expect him to likely send the AUD lower, will see how the PA is before. If the AUD crushed before Thursday then maybe Lowe will try to help it recover. All just ideas. Keeping an eye on what the Central Bankers and the Data says is really such a game changer. Knowing when likely Good news will...
As i mentioned on Sunday, AUD have too many news throughout the week. Final result will be at the end as well as direction. " make it or break it. Personaly i am selling. But its me.
  • #25,620
  • Feb 19, 2019 5:18pm Feb 19, 2019 5:18pm
Quoting iqyu5an
{quote} hellow old brother... how r u there ? so awesome i see how you share your methode and experience to trader over the world my friend .... keep in touch and stay green always .... iqyu5an
Hi buddy nice of you to drop by! Visit anytime!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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