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  • #78,481
  • Feb 15, 2019 5:09pm Feb 15, 2019 5:09pm
Looks like it’s going down more will probably look to short Monday
ex nihilo
  • #78,482
  • Feb 15, 2019 5:11pm Feb 15, 2019 5:11pm
I was almost all day out!

Lets get serious!

The only way I see that bulls get control of the pair is closing a daily bar above 1.1341. If that happens I will think at 1.1400, but if next week we break 1.1214 I expect minimum 1.1030.

There you go!

Anybody this is Gartley or what? Daily Dollar:
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Don't believe me just watch!
  • #78,483
  • Feb 15, 2019 5:46pm Feb 15, 2019 5:46pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
The 2nd week where Daily candles couldn't achieve a close below 1.1250. Intraday wise we faced a fake quick drop below 1.1266 that I was watching and bulls quickly kicked in, took back control and caused another rejection from this level. Next week we start checking again if 1.1266 area holds and if it does the bull move to retest 1.1407 area will begin to play out. I am intentionally saying "retest" because based on weekly the big trend is still bearish. The bull move is just a classic move of smart money to trick in as many buyers as it gets....

Exactly. The way I see it, either way it moves it has a long way to go and the market makers (or banks) are going to pull the stunts as long as possible to make a buck before moving on. I see it retesting 1.14 before a return back down, but nothing for certain.
  • #78,484
  • Edited 8:32pm Feb 15, 2019 8:02pm | Edited 8:32pm
D1 TF: Price inflection points | VWAP & Volume Profile
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Reversal move back to value area
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Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #78,485
  • Feb 16, 2019 3:44am Feb 16, 2019 3:44am
Have a pleasant weekend...Monday will be bullish
Risk comes from not knowing what to do
  • #78,486
  • Feb 16, 2019 3:56am Feb 16, 2019 3:56am
D1+H1+15M
When will I stop being a griddy and try to become a millionaire from one trade?
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yes yes yes
  • #78,487
  • Feb 16, 2019 3:57am Feb 16, 2019 3:57am
The Bear run is done, the only Target I can see is around 1.325 and it may sit in that zone all week.
Until we see a clear Two Bull Candles moving away from the BAR, it ain't going anywhere.

I am looking to trade this on M1 at a reversal around 1.1288 up to the Target Zone THEN WAIT for a signal.
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #78,488
  • Edited 6:26am Feb 16, 2019 6:07am | Edited 6:26am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
The 2nd week where Daily candles couldn't achieve a close below 1.1250. Intraday wise we faced a fake quick drop below 1.1266 that I was watching and bulls quickly kicked in, took back control and caused another rejection from this level. Next week we start checking again if 1.1266 area holds and if it does the bull move to retest 1.1407 area will begin to play out. I am intentionally saying "retest" because based on weekly the big trend is still bearish. The bull move is just a classic move of smart money to trick in as many buyers as it gets....
I was looking at the charts and you basically already said word for word what i was thinking...

i have a couple things to add tho;
1. The daily candle from fridays close is a nice pin bar- gives the bulls some technical impetus to go long. on the 4H - 2 nice green bull candles aswell following the stop hunt before it.
2. We have FOMC minutes coming up this wednesday - if they express more cautionary tone - especially following the recent very poor retail sales data and also now trump declared emergency to build his wall - this could be very bad for USD on wednesday following the FOMC minutes, perhaps big sell off of USD on all crosses inc EUR. This could be especially violent as the USD is a bit overbought against most crosses following one of the longest USD rallies weve seen in recent times.
3. On the bears side- besisdes what Ata has said above - the Eurozone is in lots of trouble both economically and politically. Germany close to recession, Italy is threatening to leave EU and fighting with neighboring france, brexit looks like a hard crash out with no solution in sight, french yellow vest unrest, spain and catalonia, the list is endless politcally and all the economic data is bad after bad... So coming up this week we have germnan ZEW sentiment tuesday which could be another atrocious print This could send us to a fresh swing low before FOMC the following day where it may reverse if the minutes express caution. Then following FOMC next day we have Eur services PMI and CPI data - again expect red because thats all weve been seeing lately. This could then send EU back down on another swing low following the possible high after FOMC!
4. So all things considered above - were likely to see volatility and indecision this week - be prepared to swing both ways

In basic prelim summary i am;
Monday - intraday long on technical basis
Tuedday - short following bad EUR data
Wednesday - long following cautionary FOMC
Thursday - short following bad EUR data
Friday - no idea, too far away to tell
  • #78,489
  • Feb 16, 2019 7:33am Feb 16, 2019 7:33am
On weekly chart we are under 200sma. There’s also a hammer on weekly chart. Undecided on which way to trade. I’m thinking I’ll probably go long aiming for 1.1440 looks like most traders are long though
ex nihilo
  • #78,490
  • Feb 16, 2019 7:33am Feb 16, 2019 7:33am
Quoting RickM
The Bear run is done, the only Target I can see is around 1.325 and it may sit in that zone all week. Until we see a clear Two Bull Candles moving away from the BAR, it ain't going anywhere. I am looking to trade this on M1 at a reversal around 1.1288 up to the Target Zone THEN WAIT for a signal. {image}
That would be good. I bought euros at 1.1300. For many days I keep an open position. Swaps accrued incredibly much. I hope on Monday the problem will be resolved. There are fears that the euro will move down, and it will be a nightmare for me. If such a daily bar breaks down, the euro could fall far.
  • #78,491
  • Feb 16, 2019 9:00am Feb 16, 2019 9:00am
Quoting RickM
The Bear run is done, the only Target I can see is around 1.325 and it may sit in that zone all week. Until we see a clear Two Bull Candles moving away from the BAR, it ain't going anywhere. I am looking to trade this on M1 at a reversal around 1.1288 up to the Target Zone THEN WAIT for a signal. {image}
What is bankers bar? What do you mean by that?
  • #78,492
  • Feb 16, 2019 9:28am Feb 16, 2019 9:28am
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} What is bankers bar? What do you mean by that?
it quite likely refers to the weekly chart
  • #78,493
  • Feb 16, 2019 1:07pm Feb 16, 2019 1:07pm
some thoughts

EUR/USD 1st target 1320 at London opening, might go higher 1356- later down

USD down towards 9600
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knownothing
  • #78,494
  • Feb 16, 2019 1:30pm Feb 16, 2019 1:30pm
EUR/USD Next H4
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Regard NOOR16
  • #78,495
  • Feb 16, 2019 1:38pm Feb 16, 2019 1:38pm
Expecting a bullish week.
Up move continue on Monday.
Euro is oversold on montly.
The Stochastic has already started climbing on weekly.
And there is a MACD divergence on H4.
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No matter if the price is going to broke 1,1215 or not, the direction is UP. At least till 1,157 ... 1,1814 ...

Just my thoughts.
  • #78,496
  • Feb 16, 2019 2:34pm Feb 16, 2019 2:34pm
After a dead cat bounce at the beginning of the month it looks like the EUR is going down the tube.
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  • #78,497
  • Edited 5:06pm Feb 16, 2019 4:50pm | Edited 5:06pm
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} What is bankers bar? What do you mean by that?
Hi Techanalyst

I am talking about previous history of hundreds of millions of dollars of orders being opened or closed at this point in October and November last year. It is the opening and closing point of the Bankers Candle ( Monthly Candles ).
I trade into these zones myself as a strategy like many hundreds of other traders. If you need prove that the price is FORCED to move to these zones, guess where my TAKE PROFIT was from a SELL I had on this pair last week. I did not show something on that chart.

See that spike down at the structural low, guess where it when too.

BANKERS BAR CLOSE OF THE OCTOBER 2016 CHART - It hit the zone by ONE pip.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #78,498
  • Feb 16, 2019 7:07pm Feb 16, 2019 7:07pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Techanalyst I am talking about previous history of hundreds of millions of dollars of orders being opened or closed at this point in October and November last year. It is the opening and closing point of the Bankers Candle ( Monthly Candles ). I trade into these zones myself as a strategy like many hundreds of other traders. If you need prove that the price is FORCED to move to these zones, guess where my TAKE PROFIT was from a SELL I had on this pair last week. I did not show something on that chart. See that spike down at the structural...
Ok sure i see what you mean. It was also close to other months. Not sure what you're trying to share but whatever brings you profit it is all good. As for knowing "bankers" levels, none of us know that. You can't really know if it is going to get to the monthly candle of october 2016 unless it arrives there like now. But either way it makes no difference to me. I can find better levels for myself on daily chart. Much better levels and a lot profit. Price moves where it moves. It is not forced to move anywhere, it moves because market makers and traders buy/sell and plus the news that's what moves it. That's it. But if it is your strategy and it brings you profit that is great. Trade safe.
  • #78,499
  • Edited 7:40pm Feb 16, 2019 7:09pm | Edited 7:40pm
Complements from Noor16,

Another way to scalp folks

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 AutoTrendChannel.ex4   10 KB | 293 downloads

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 cross.ex4   8 KB | 295 downloads

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 IINWMARROWS_WITH_ALERT.ex4   12 KB | 288 downloads

Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl M15 80%.tpl   607 KB | 322 downloads

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 MA Channel.ex4   10 KB | 293 downloads

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Symbol changer 1.1 separate.ex4   15 KB | 298 downloads
  • #78,500
  • Edited 7:24pm Feb 16, 2019 7:13pm | Edited 7:24pm
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} Ok sure i see what you mean. It was also close to other months. Not sure what you're trying to share but whatever brings you profit it is all good. As for knowing "bankers" levels, none of us know that. You can't really know if it is going to get to the monthly candle of october 2016 unless it arrives there like now. But either way it makes no difference to me. I can find better levels for myself on daily chart. Much better levels and a lot profit. Price moves where it moves. It is not forced to move anywhere, it moves because market makers...
All good Techanalyst

Price is moved for a reason. All the big players know where it is going. We do as well if we aim to swing between monthly candles because the Big players control the direction without doubt.
However I do agree that Daily Candle setups are good for intraday trading and also for trading secondary trends. I am sure you are very profitable with your setups BUT I am looking at the bigger picture.

Guess where it is going now ?.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
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