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High Level Accuracy Method With Little To NO Draw-down

  • #1,401
  • Feb 12, 2019 10:36am Feb 12, 2019 10:36am
Update to the USDCHF setup I shared earlier. I actually took the trade. I dare add that sometimes we can even deduce when a temporary top or bottom is in place when signals become abundant in same area.

USDCHF 15mins
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  • #1,402
  • Feb 12, 2019 10:45am Feb 12, 2019 10:45am
Quoting pipsquick16
{quote} There is no engulfing bar that I can see, and I personally like to see the engulfing bar engulf bar #2 by at least 25-50%, and I am only talking about the bodies now. So lets say that this is a Buy set up, and that bar #1 candle body is 20 pips, bar #2 candle body is 18 pips. So the engulfing bar should totally engulf bar #1, and close somewhere around the quarter to middle area of bar #2. So if it engulfs bar #1 by only 1-2 pips, then to me its not a strong set up, but FX Cyborg can confirm this or not.

Ahh I see what you mean. The pic i posted is just bordering on an engulfing bar. Whereas Kojak's chart shows a clear engulfing bar as you explained.

Thanks a lot pipsquick16, really appreciate it.

I need to eyeball the chart more and be more picky.
  • #1,403
  • Feb 12, 2019 1:53pm Feb 12, 2019 1:53pm
Hello All........I am new to this thread but am really struggling with one point: does the trend matter or not? I'm an intelligent fellow. I read the words. I understand the words. And I think I've got it. And then comes along chart examples that show the opposite of what I've read and are still considered valid. This is a very, very interesting method but this confusion is causing me considerable frustration. On the two attached charts (from waaay back at post 34 and post 46), FXCyborg responded that these were both valid SELL setups, but both charts, at the time of the setups, show clear up trends. There are many other examples of this as well. But then there are many examples that are considered NOT valid because they are not following the trend. Aaaahh!! FXCyborg, I know you have said that you don't use higher TFs to determine trend, you watch the chart you're on. Sooo....I dunno. What do I do??
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,404
  • Feb 12, 2019 2:26pm Feb 12, 2019 2:26pm
Quoting jer inverno
Thank you very much FXCyborg for the knowledge sharing {image}

But here i don't see any accumulation zone
  • #1,405
  • Feb 12, 2019 2:30pm Feb 12, 2019 2:30pm
Quoting Ozymandias
Hello All........I am new to this thread but am really struggling with one point: does the trend matter or not? I'm an intelligent fellow. I read the words. I understand the words. And I think I've got it. And then comes along chart examples that show the opposite of what I've read and are still considered valid. This is a very, very interesting method but this confusion is causing me considerable frustration. On the two attached charts (from waaay back at post 34 and post 46), FXCyborg responded that these were both valid SELL setups, but both...

Yeah. I'm confused too.
  • #1,406
  • Feb 12, 2019 2:42pm Feb 12, 2019 2:42pm
Quoting Ozymandias
Hello All........I am new to this thread but am really struggling with one point: does the trend matter or not? I'm an intelligent fellow. I read the words. I understand the words. And I think I've got it. And then comes along chart examples that show the opposite of what I've read and are still considered valid. This is a very, very interesting method but this confusion is causing me considerable frustration. On the two attached charts (from waaay back at post 34 and post 46), FXCyborg responded that these were both valid SELL setups, but both...
The trend on the NZDJPY H1 was clearly up, so this Sell is not correct as far as I can see, and it was also a failed trade. At what point would you start selling, I would say on Feb 7 because its obvious that Feb 6 was a change in trend with it being a down day, but we need FX Cyborgs input on this one.
  • #1,407
  • Feb 12, 2019 3:24pm Feb 12, 2019 3:24pm
Hey FxCyborg,

Firstly, thank you very much for the info you've provided in this thread. Compared to most, I'd say I'm fairly new to trading since I've been on a demo on and off for about two years trying to find something consistent (or fairly consistent at least in that it's profitable). I read the first page and flipped through a few pages of examples posted here and decided to go to the charts and see if I could find some setups on any timeframes.

So I saw this on the 4hr Eur/Usd and there's 2 examples. I know hindsight is a wonderful thing, but could you please let me know if this is something that would interest you as far as taking a trade(s)? Please see my screenshot for an example. Curious to see your thoughts or inputs please. I've also noted a strong support zone (which it went through on setup 2) on each sell opportunity. Looking at the Daily chart, it clearly shows a downtrend. That being said, I know it would be going against the daily trend, but there's a buy setup forming since price is hitting that strong bottom and looks to be forming a bullish engulfing candle. Would be interested in hearing your thoughts on that too please. Could be a decent 150-200 pip target given how the last 2 pullbacks went. I know it's against the trend, but the pip target is decent.

Also, as far as Risk Management goes, do you close out any portion of your lots after hitting certain areas then let the remaining profits go with a trailing stop or do you usually just let the full order run to your target?

(don't mind the buy order on the screen, its from a smaller timeframe and from a completely different strategy I'm testing)

Thanks!
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Green pips to all
  • #1,408
  • Feb 12, 2019 3:28pm Feb 12, 2019 3:28pm
Quoting pipsquick16
{quote} The trend on the NZDJPY H1 was clearly up, so this Sell is not correct as far as I can see, and it was also a failed trade. At what point would you start selling, I would say on Feb 7 because its obvious that Feb 6 was a change in trend with it being a down day, but we need FX Cyborgs input on this one.
Right. FXC called the NZDJPY setup valid in post 53. And he called the EURCAD setup I mentioned earlier valid in post 59. So I'm left confused; not angry, doubting or negative, just confused.
  • #1,409
  • Feb 12, 2019 3:58pm Feb 12, 2019 3:58pm
Set up I found on the AUD/USD 30 min chart around the start of the London session.

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Result,

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  • #1,410
  • Feb 12, 2019 4:05pm Feb 12, 2019 4:05pm
Quoting Ozymandias
{quote} Right. FXC called the NZDJPY setup valid in post 53. And he called the EURCAD setup I mentioned earlier valid in post 59. So I'm left confused; not angry, doubting or negative, just confused.
FWIW, I'd agree it was a valid sell from your chart on the 4hr. tf. Don't know whether or not you dropped to the 15,5 tfs for confirmation or for a better entry. I tend to use the55ema for trend direction and have been told by an experienced trader to never trade against the hourly 55ema. Admitted I mostly trade dax and dow so maybe FX has a somewhat different profile.
Anyway, all the best and stay nimble: these are volatile trading situations.
tmr
  • #1,411
  • Feb 12, 2019 4:16pm Feb 12, 2019 4:16pm
This "trading method" is crazy accurate. My day on the AUD/JPY. Accumulate, price pulls away and spikes back to the zone (purple boxes). Out of the 4 trades, I was not down more than 3 pips in any trade...

FXCyborg, thank you for sharing and taking time to teach your method. You may have convinced me to start looking at 1M and 5M charts and a new way of looking at the game...

All the best to you..

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Good work is the key to good fortune
  • #1,412
  • Feb 12, 2019 4:20pm Feb 12, 2019 4:20pm
So I built a basic indicator to highlight possible engulfing patterns.
Now it is not sophisticated enough to only highlight the perfect setup, it just does the bare minimum.
So what is the point?
The point was to highlight to me where a possible set up could occur - in these examples on the H1 time frame.
It gives me a little arrow at the open of the next candle should the basic engulfing body pattern appear in the previous 3 candles.

What do I do next?
This is where some experience comes in. Essentially, you have to look at time of day, size of candles, general trend eg. Higher Highs and Higher Lows?
You have to look at the way the 3 candles were formed. Were they long wicks or full bodies? My brain filters as much of the nuances as possible.
But I would prefer to have far more explicit rules to this method.

The next thing I do is draw the horizontal lines for where I want to get in (yellow) , where I am wrong (blue) and then whether of not we have started to make lower lows (in these bearish examples red) a higher high would be preferable for bullish setups.

Then I sit patiently on the m5 chart waiting for it all to play out/

My conclusion is that the idea is good but you can not take every signal. You have to have a very good set up and even then most will fail, so tight stops and some strict rules are needed.
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  • #1,413
  • Feb 12, 2019 4:39pm Feb 12, 2019 4:39pm
Quoting Ozymandias
Hello All........I am new to this thread but am really struggling with one point: does the trend matter or not? I'm an intelligent fellow. I read the words. I understand the words. And I think I've got it. And then comes along chart examples that show the opposite of what I've read and are still considered valid. This is a very, very interesting method but this confusion is causing me considerable frustration. On the two attached charts (from waaay back at post 34 and post 46), FXCyborg responded that these were both valid SELL setups, but both...
If your trading a 5 min chart then the daily/weekly trend is not critical, it's more important to be aware of any major support/resistance zones.
  • #1,414
  • Feb 12, 2019 4:59pm Feb 12, 2019 4:59pm
Quoting Ozymandias
{quote} Right. FXC called the NZDJPY setup valid in post 53. And he called the EURCAD setup I mentioned earlier valid in post 59. So I'm left confused; not angry, doubting or negative, just confused.

Price must come back to the trigger point to trigger a sell. If the price does not come back, no trigger; no trade and no losses. This happens sometimes: The trigger for a setup is valid, but price does not come all the way back. Sometimes the one who is moving the market, bankers or market makers, know that you and others are looking for this trade and they will not allow price to trigger it. This is not a new trade setup so my theory is plausible.

Essentially, you traders that focused on this are perfect and did not fail. The market had other plans. Go easy on yourself and find another.
  • #1,415
  • Feb 12, 2019 5:06pm Feb 12, 2019 5:06pm
I love S/D trades but this way is quite different then some of the original e/g.S.Seiden and Co. So will try some today!!!! stay green
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Stay green!!!
  • #1,416
  • Feb 12, 2019 5:10pm Feb 12, 2019 5:10pm
Attached Image
Stay green!!!
  • #1,417
  • Feb 12, 2019 5:13pm Feb 12, 2019 5:13pm
Attached Image
Stay green!!!
  • #1,418
  • Feb 12, 2019 5:25pm Feb 12, 2019 5:25pm
Quoting Robasker
Set up I found on the AUD/USD 30 min chart around the start of the London session. {image} Result, {image}
Nice setup
  • #1,419
  • Feb 12, 2019 5:42pm Feb 12, 2019 5:42pm
Here is an example of why you need to be well aware of any major support/resistance levels.
30 min chart with a potential short set up.

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A quick scan of the Daily chart and price is clearly at a major support level, NO TRADE!

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  • #1,420
  • Feb 12, 2019 6:17pm Feb 12, 2019 6:17pm
Quoting NevFX
So I built a basic indicator to highlight possible engulfing patterns. Now it is not sophisticated enough to only highlight the perfect setup, it just does the bare minimum. So what is the point? The point was to highlight to me where a possible set up could occur - in these examples on the H1 time frame. It gives me a little arrow at the open of the next candle should the basic engulfing body pattern appear in the previous 3 candles. What do I do next? This is where some experience comes in. Essentially, you have to look at time of day, size of...
Can you possibly share that indicator? Would be interested to try it out - especially if it has alerts
Green pips to all
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