Hello Everyone:
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o
> </o>
Welcome to a new week of trading. I am starting this post in a new thread so everybody doesn’t have to go through the whole previous thread along with the fact that I am making some important updates to my EA Flyer! which will be easier to understand without reading through the last thread for all the little details.
<o> </o>
Last week was again a week of trading not for the meek. We saw the EUR/USD up and down the whole week finishing up with a 75 point drop Friday from the early part of the day. My personal trading did well for the week up until Friday, then took some hits thanks to news. I hope Friday the 13<SUP>th</SUP> was not as unlucky for everybody. But I digress.
<o> </o>
As for my EA Flyer! this last week, I have to admit my results and data are extremely skewed and I am unable to give any accurate results because I am in the middle of moving from one household to another and I have not been able to have my computer running consistently because I’m staying in a hotel temporarily. Hopefully, this week I can have some more consistent tests as I won’t be moving around so much. However, during this last week I did see some good trades and some bad trades. In going over the statistics and examining the data available, I have noticed that since the beginning of October we have started a different sort of pattern on the market than what has been seen for the last several months. Back testing Flyer all the way up through Friday shows very consistent results until October which then begins to take several losses. I’m sure all of you have found Flyer! taking some losses this last week along with some gains. I am hoping that each of you are finding some settings that are working out better for you. It’s all part of the process of understanding the markets. During my research, I am discovering all kinds of little hidden pieces of information that I hadn’t really realized before.
<o> </o>
Anyway, a lot of people are concerned that Flyer! is not exiting the trades early enough to prevent a drain of profit when the position reverses and starts going back up. I understand everyone’s concern with this as I too have seen that particular issue arise. This is the problem with a quick ranging market. I have an answer to the problem. I will be releasing a “FLYER! - VERSION B” along with an updated original version hopefully within the next 24 hours. Version B uses a different exit strategy while keeping the original entry conditions. B so far in tests performs quite nicely in a ranging market and has a slightly better win/loss ratio. However, the drawback is that it will not capture the huge gains that A will when the market begins a nice long trend. But the advantage is that on quicker moves with larger rebounds, it will exit very close to the bottom/top of the move and not allow the profit to drain away in the rebound. It will be up to you which version you choose to use, but read on because I have made an interesting discovery with version A.
<o> </o>
For those of you currently testing Flyer!, I have done some further research and now have found some settings for “TimePeriod” = 15 which actually give better results than those using “TimePeriod” = 30. On the EUR/USD in a comparison back test between the 15 and 30 settings starting on Feb. 1, 2006 to present, I achieved a 98.5% win ratio (Can we hope for any better???!!!) on the 15 minute setting out of 396 trades. This resulted in a $10000 account turned into $4 million with equity management feature in use. Compare this to the 94% and $2.5 million on the 30 minute setting. The 15 minute setting also makes it through these last couple of weeks of October without the huge losses seen on the 30 minute settings, although it still has a couple in there.
<o> </o>
Attached to this post is a Word Document that shows a table of results comparing the original version (Version A) and the upcoming (Version B). I have yet to test the possibilities on any of the other pairs yet, only the EUR/USD. It takes several hours to run complete back tests using all the CPU power on my laptop (and it’s a good Laptop, too!).
<o> </o>
Some comments on the results:
<o> </o>
For version A, I added an additional line for the 15 minute setting that had results close to the other “best” setting, but had a smaller stop loss setting.
<o> </o>
You see quite a difference between version A & B. Both versions do not do good on the 60 minute settings. A is really good on both the 15 and 30 minute settings, while B is only good on the 30 minute setting. I think the reason B does as well as it does on the 30 minute setting is that on this timeframe the exit points for both versions are closer to being the same values due to the way the dynamics of the market perform whereas on the other time frames, it is not so.
<o> </o>
For now, I think you all have some things to digest and I have written enough for this post now. Have a good week of trading and thanks again for testing, helping, and using my EA, Flyer!
<o> </o>
GirlFlyer
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o
> </o>Welcome to a new week of trading. I am starting this post in a new thread so everybody doesn’t have to go through the whole previous thread along with the fact that I am making some important updates to my EA Flyer! which will be easier to understand without reading through the last thread for all the little details.
<o
> </o>Last week was again a week of trading not for the meek. We saw the EUR/USD up and down the whole week finishing up with a 75 point drop Friday from the early part of the day. My personal trading did well for the week up until Friday, then took some hits thanks to news. I hope Friday the 13<SUP>th</SUP> was not as unlucky for everybody. But I digress.
<o
> </o>As for my EA Flyer! this last week, I have to admit my results and data are extremely skewed and I am unable to give any accurate results because I am in the middle of moving from one household to another and I have not been able to have my computer running consistently because I’m staying in a hotel temporarily. Hopefully, this week I can have some more consistent tests as I won’t be moving around so much. However, during this last week I did see some good trades and some bad trades. In going over the statistics and examining the data available, I have noticed that since the beginning of October we have started a different sort of pattern on the market than what has been seen for the last several months. Back testing Flyer all the way up through Friday shows very consistent results until October which then begins to take several losses. I’m sure all of you have found Flyer! taking some losses this last week along with some gains. I am hoping that each of you are finding some settings that are working out better for you. It’s all part of the process of understanding the markets. During my research, I am discovering all kinds of little hidden pieces of information that I hadn’t really realized before.
<o
> </o>Anyway, a lot of people are concerned that Flyer! is not exiting the trades early enough to prevent a drain of profit when the position reverses and starts going back up. I understand everyone’s concern with this as I too have seen that particular issue arise. This is the problem with a quick ranging market. I have an answer to the problem. I will be releasing a “FLYER! - VERSION B” along with an updated original version hopefully within the next 24 hours. Version B uses a different exit strategy while keeping the original entry conditions. B so far in tests performs quite nicely in a ranging market and has a slightly better win/loss ratio. However, the drawback is that it will not capture the huge gains that A will when the market begins a nice long trend. But the advantage is that on quicker moves with larger rebounds, it will exit very close to the bottom/top of the move and not allow the profit to drain away in the rebound. It will be up to you which version you choose to use, but read on because I have made an interesting discovery with version A.
<o
> </o>For those of you currently testing Flyer!, I have done some further research and now have found some settings for “TimePeriod” = 15 which actually give better results than those using “TimePeriod” = 30. On the EUR/USD in a comparison back test between the 15 and 30 settings starting on Feb. 1, 2006 to present, I achieved a 98.5% win ratio (Can we hope for any better???!!!) on the 15 minute setting out of 396 trades. This resulted in a $10000 account turned into $4 million with equity management feature in use. Compare this to the 94% and $2.5 million on the 30 minute setting. The 15 minute setting also makes it through these last couple of weeks of October without the huge losses seen on the 30 minute settings, although it still has a couple in there.
<o
> </o>Attached to this post is a Word Document that shows a table of results comparing the original version (Version A) and the upcoming (Version B). I have yet to test the possibilities on any of the other pairs yet, only the EUR/USD. It takes several hours to run complete back tests using all the CPU power on my laptop (and it’s a good Laptop, too!).
<o
> </o>Some comments on the results:
<o
> </o>For version A, I added an additional line for the 15 minute setting that had results close to the other “best” setting, but had a smaller stop loss setting.
<o
> </o>You see quite a difference between version A & B. Both versions do not do good on the 60 minute settings. A is really good on both the 15 and 30 minute settings, while B is only good on the 30 minute setting. I think the reason B does as well as it does on the 30 minute setting is that on this timeframe the exit points for both versions are closer to being the same values due to the way the dynamics of the market perform whereas on the other time frames, it is not so.
<o
> </o>For now, I think you all have some things to digest and I have written enough for this post now. Have a good week of trading and thanks again for testing, helping, and using my EA, Flyer!
<o
> </o>GirlFlyer
