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Pivot Trading

  • #24,961
  • Feb 8, 2019 4:24pm Feb 8, 2019 4:24pm
Quoting Mundo
Hope you all made . Enjoy the weekend. Relaxing listening to Gypsy..love Gypsy, Balkan, Klezmer, Romanian and similar styles. Such amazing cultures and great music. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxMeyE8KSkc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dre8zZHEH5s
"Gypsy, Balkan, Klezmer, Romanian" Me too ! Add Armenian, Greek, Arabic music and you will party endlessly.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #24,962
  • Feb 8, 2019 4:33pm Feb 8, 2019 4:33pm
Forex can be challenging in terms of taking profits.
Today's UC trade perfect example Price dropped to 3245 and could of taken TP then but I thought maybe this may reach WP lot lower instead price came back eating profits and took TP with 20% less profits.
There are times it does drop lot lower and had you bailed out you would be mad at yourself for getting out early.Last Week GC great example I went at it 3 badge of trades and felt pissed at myself for getting out leaving literary thousands not collected.
This is the advance level challenge where issue is not about losses anymore but taking profits
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #24,963
  • Edited 10:06pm Feb 8, 2019 9:01pm | Edited 10:06pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} "Gypsy, Balkan, Klezmer, Romanian" Me too ! Add Armenian, Greek, Arabic music and you will party endlessly.

Please don't overlook the melodious "Bollywood" music from India.

Thanks and warm regards. _ Kartar
  • #24,964
  • Feb 8, 2019 10:09pm Feb 8, 2019 10:09pm
Started late in the thread. Starting from the beginning. Hopefully catch up soon. Keep up the good work. Long experience. Thanks and
Regards
  • #24,965
  • Feb 8, 2019 11:38pm Feb 8, 2019 11:38pm
Quoting Davit
Forex can be challenging in terms of taking profits. Today's UC trade perfect example Price dropped to 3245 and could of taken TP then but I thought maybe this may reach WP lot lower instead price came back eating profits and took TP with 20% less profits. There are times it does drop lot lower and had you bailed out you would be mad at yourself for getting out early.Last Week GC great example I went at it 3 badge of trades and felt pissed at myself for getting out leaving literary thousands not collected. This is the advance level challenge where...
Very true.
Yesterday on UC price stopped in few pips from TP in my long trades & began moving here & there. I decided to close all long orders 3 minutes before CAD news) It was more important than short trades & profit from CAD drop afterwards.
  • #24,966
  • Feb 9, 2019 1:09am Feb 9, 2019 1:09am
Quoting Nextgendad
{quote} Mundo I am with you on this once after this week I am "cleaning out my closet" so to speak of all of the EMA's, indicators and the like and getting totally back to just price action and pivots only. I too though with all of the indicators and extra things that more confluence would = greater trades and higher profits. but in the end all it did was give to many things that make you second guess every entry as they leave you behind. Thank you again Davit for putting our focus back on what really works Hope your wife is feeling some better...
Same here.. I already removed my 30EMA before but went somewhere and added it back again.. Also a friend told me to not use it anymore...

But I just realized this week, it's not really useful anymore... So, I cleaned my chart as well. Coz it's useless, I do counter trend and trend trading anyway... Best way to identify a trade is just use price action and pivots.. Good enough.. But I'm still not as good as you guys here that is why I am still using anglegator as my additional confirmation that is why I am sticking with it...

I find it also very useful what CryptoSurf stated about looking at previous weeks pivot.. That is why I added Voty instead on my chart.
We're not here to be right, we're here to Profit Consistently!
  • #24,967
  • Feb 9, 2019 2:19am Feb 9, 2019 2:19am
Quoting Davit
Forex can be challenging in terms of taking profits. Today's UC trade perfect example Price dropped to 3245 and could of taken TP then but I thought maybe this may reach WP lot lower instead price came back eating profits and took TP with 20% less profits. There are times it does drop lot lower and had you bailed out you would be mad at yourself for getting out early.Last Week GC great example I went at it 3 badge of trades and felt pissed at myself for getting out leaving literary thousands not collected. This is the advance level challenge where...
The perfect saying I can say/apply to this is from other trader here with a signature "Take everything you can, give nothing back"

Best to trail your stops still instead of waiting for your target to be hit.. Coz there will always be times, after 5 minutes candle printed, they will try to hunt SL first before going back down again. We can always reload later on, at least you were able to maximize potential profits on the 1st swing instead of giving back too much profits to the market.
We're not here to be right, we're here to Profit Consistently!
  • #24,968
  • Feb 9, 2019 4:42am Feb 9, 2019 4:42am
different approaches...

George from here https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=874421
His strike zone is less then 20pips and he describes it herd mentality above his strike zone so we go from herd to expert in less then 20 pips on Pair ADR around 150
Everyone has his method but I find it amusing how close we go from herd (loser amateur) to winner expert on 150ADR pair!!! My strike zone correctly takes account of pairs ADR

difference of 1min noise trading and swing trading.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #24,969
  • Feb 9, 2019 5:01am Feb 9, 2019 5:01am
Quoting Davit
different approaches... George from here https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=874421
Can't believe people actually zoom in all the way to the M1 TF.
I saw his thread previously and just turned away. Not wasting my time there.
Ask and you look stupid for 5 minutes. Don't ask and stay stupid forever.
  • #24,970
  • Feb 9, 2019 5:14am Feb 9, 2019 5:14am
Have not posted my view for a while, so here it is.

Calendar events

Monday
Japanese holiday - such days often mean a sell off. So I anticipate JPY weakness which would be great for my AJ longs. Watching closely.
GBP Prelim GDP q/q I think should have the most impact here. It is considered red. To be honest, there are only two GBP involved pairs (GU, EG) I trade and they both sit in the middle of a daily range imo, so I would like EG to be a lot higher to go short or a lot lower, at 0.8630, to go long. But as I like to sell EG only, I'll wait it to go higher for a short. Also uncertainty till the end of March about Britain and BREXIT makes me stay on the side for now.

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Tuesday
Two speeches here, Carney and Powell. Spikes expected.

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Wednesday
BOOM!!! NZD mohterfcuker. Have lost some battles with this currency. Read that no rate increase expected till 2021, so this most obviously stays unchanged at 1.75%. I actually like where NU and NC price is atm, so really watching to long these. Later Orr speaking, so if I got a chance to long NU or NC, I will close trades before Orr or at least protect myself.

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Thursday
USD Retail Sales - expected to be red. Would be nice if it gives opportunities to buy EU or AU. These pairs look to me have most potential for long.

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Friday
GBP retail - will watch where GBP goes but still staying aside. Trying to choose my battles wisely.

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Not much about EUR, CAD or AUD this week. Commodity pairs will float in the direction of commodity I think but I expect unexpected where someone most definitely will take a word to shake things up a bit.
  • #24,971
  • Feb 9, 2019 5:31am Feb 9, 2019 5:31am
Here are my insights from the next week calendar.

On Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday, we have red news for GBP. GDP m/m q/q (Monday), CPI y/y (Wednesday) are expected to print lower numbers indicating that the UK economy is decelerating. Manufacturing production m/m (Monday) and Retail Sales m/m (Friday) forecasts are higher than previous month. On Tuesday, BOE Gov Carney speech most likely will be dovish. The uncertainty around Brexit keeps negative sentiment for GBP. Outlook: GBP might continue to weaken and go into area of 1.28-1.27 ( against USD) in the beginning and rebound toward the end of the week.

Tuesday and Wednesday we have NZD news. It is very likely that rate is kept unchanged with more dovish tone by Orr on Wednesday. Outlook: NZD is likely to continue loosing against USD, JPY and CAD.

USD fundamentals are mainly looking good with news on Wednesday (CPI) and Thursday (Retail Sales). CPI is forecasted to be better than previous month. Outlook: Given the economic environment in Europe, UK, Australia, NZ, USD might further strengthen in the beginning of the week (until Wednesday) with possible weakness before Retail Sales on Thursday. Any actuals better than forecast could continue to push USD higher in the second half of the week.

Your feedback is welcome.
  • #24,972
  • Feb 9, 2019 6:04am Feb 9, 2019 6:04am
Inserted Video
  • #24,973
  • Feb 9, 2019 6:13am Feb 9, 2019 6:13am
Quoting Davit
different approaches... George from here https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=874421 His strike zone is less then 20pips and he describes it herd mentality above his strike zone so we go from herd to expert in less then 20 pips on Pair ADR around 150 Everyone has his method but I find it amusing how close we go from herd (loser amateur) to winner expert on 150ADR pair!!! My strike zone correctly takes account of pairs ADR difference of 1min noise trading and swing trading. {image}...
Not here to judge anyones approach, but I had enough when I saw bolinger bands.
It amazes me that majority of traders still didnt understood that most of the tools provided for free by brokers/banks etc. just exist either to make you think you can make money easily or to make your account die slowly(win some, lose some so that your hope never dies, success is just a step away and you deposit again until the cycle starts again).

Furthermore I dont know a single trader who make a living trading 1 min. TF. I get stomach pain when I see people on Instagram promoting to trade Gold on 1min. with a tight SL. Mostly impatient phone traders fall for this, because they dont have the endurance to monitor charts for 10-15 hours and thats how they loose money, because they think there is a shortcut.

Nothing can replace charttime, no indicator, no trading programm, no mentor.
  • #24,974
  • Feb 9, 2019 7:29am Feb 9, 2019 7:29am
Quoting Davit
had a great week Zero stress made my mortgage plus more.Steep curve down is withdrawal of profits Numbers I erased since its not necessary in public forum....(learned this hard way by attracting army of trolls previously) I am making basically 4x more from forex a week then my day job.I love that.Day job pays my health insurance... {image}
If you were living in Europe you were enjoying free health welfare for you and your family.
  • #24,975
  • Feb 9, 2019 11:26am Feb 9, 2019 11:26am
Quoting ranilo.vince
{quote} ...I find it also very useful what CryptoSurf stated about looking at previous weeks pivot.. That is why I added Voty instead on my chart.
...Your EU chart from Feb 08 Post #24,950
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU Ranillo, Vince.png Size: 168 KB
Invest in Life
  • #24,976
  • Feb 9, 2019 12:03pm Feb 9, 2019 12:03pm
Quoting Mundo
{quote} ...Your EU chart from Feb 08 Post #24,950 {image}
Nice! You also got it figured out like the others.

I just learned this now. Very useful to check pivot history.

So now that EU ended in S100. Where do you expect it to go then next week? Or you couldn't tell it yet. Will just need to observe how price moves especially around weekly.pivot point if it's going to break up or struggle then go back down?
We're not here to be right, we're here to Profit Consistently!
  • #24,977
  • Feb 9, 2019 1:56pm Feb 9, 2019 1:56pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} "Gypsy, Balkan, Klezmer, Romanian" Me too ! Add Armenian, Greek, Arabic music and you will party endlessly.
Davit, what about System of a Down?)
One of my favourite band)
  • #24,978
  • Feb 9, 2019 3:22pm Feb 9, 2019 3:22pm
Quoting antisystem
{quote} Davit, what about System of a Down?) One of my favourite band)
I love them but admittedly they are not party music.I listen ton of music which I would not want to play in a party.
cheers
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #24,979
  • Feb 9, 2019 3:28pm Feb 9, 2019 3:28pm
Quoting ranilo.vince
{quote} Nice! You also got it figured out like the others. I just learned this now. Very useful to check pivot history. So now that EU ended in S100. Where do you expect it to go then next week? Or you couldn't tell it yet. Will just need to observe how price moves especially around weekly.pivot point if it's going to break up or struggle then go back down?
When you think EU its not just about EU its about AU NU UJ GU as well.What I mean EU is about how strong or weak USD is and may not be about European Union this week. Weds is CPI and if it prints read expect all majors to bounce against USD exception might be UJ which is most manipulated currency.There is cyclic factor about swings. EU has been dropping for all last week and where its at its very likely to bounce which fits with corrections cross the board.
Impetus could be CPI but it could bounce even with minor green number.
Looking at daily EU is becoming attractive to buy.Will have to wait and confirm how market deals with it
Its obvious its been ranging and I love range
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #24,980
  • Feb 9, 2019 3:40pm Feb 9, 2019 3:40pm
Quoting 1pipperhour
Have not posted my view for a while, so here it is. Calendar events Monday Japanese holiday - such days often mean a sell off. So I anticipate JPY weakness which would be great for my AJ longs. Watching closely. GBP Prelim GDP q/q I think should have the most impact here. It is considered red. To be honest, there are only two GBP involved pairs (GU, EG) I trade and they both sit in the middle of a daily range imo, so I would like EG to be a lot higher to go short or a lot lower, at 0.8630, to go long. But as I like to sell EG only, I'll wait it...
I like your calendar.You are using your own analyses and getting a grip feel on the battlefield.Keep doing it will improve your trading.
You have come a long way and I can sense a trader in you developing nicely!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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