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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #44,581
  • Feb 3, 2019 2:25pm Feb 3, 2019 2:25pm
Quoting evocpr19
I would like to highlight a general thing belonging to the behaviour within this forum: (sorry Bogdanlinee, I quote explicitly your name, but I mean it more general) Dear Bogdanlinee, before I answer your question asked via PM here, I wish to highlight something else. You posted a question in the thread, I answered as fast as I could. Then from your side, nothing (not I single sign of life, not even a "like button" or better woud be a reply message). I do not mind if someone does not agree with me and see a given thing different and explains his...
Dear Evo.

Thanks for reply. Sorry that didn't answer your message.

All replies which I received are very helpful and useful. They are improve my trading.

Try to be active here.

All people are friends.

Wish a good luck to ALL)
  • #44,582
  • Feb 3, 2019 5:13pm Feb 3, 2019 5:13pm
A few set ups I am eyeing to start the week.

EUR/JPY - I think the paint may be done drying and ready to move. Looking for a correction from the NSH and on from there.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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EUR/AUD - I really like this set up because it has nice ABCD completion with confluence in the selling zone.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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AUD/JPY - Looking for this one to come back perhaps to the 50 and in the buy zone. The February open is also in the zone, which does provide a bit of extra support. We will see if we can get a rotation there.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Good work is the key to good fortune
  • #44,583
  • Feb 3, 2019 5:29pm Feb 3, 2019 5:29pm
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} Losses are part of the game. Look at my chart on the 31 Jan, I started with -200. Why, because I was late for trading and forced a trade. So I got the bill. I could erase the loss and finish in profit, but it was not intended to trade that long on that day. Peter T gave a good summary. In terms of trading, I am a bit more concerned on your entries and trade management, since I do not see how you followed really a trade plan (e.g. Jumping on different orderflows). Anyway, I wish you all the best.
Thank you so much evo. Your advice is very useful indeed. After hearing it, I review everything again & try to trade again without insight & compare it to my actual trades. And what I realized is, every trades I took in the recent 2 weeks are nowhere near what i planned & traded while i were still in demo. I really don't know what i was thinking at the moment. I must to consolidate my thoughts at any cost. Once again thank you.


Quoting Pair-me-up
{quote} I think number 3 is a huge part in emotional control and seeing the bigger picture of playing the probabilities. A large account should be enough to live off of a small percentage of it for daily expenses. If an account is too small, then a person will worry more about losing all of it instead of cutting off losing trades. The fear of not getting to a comfortable level of success can be paralyzing. Over the years, I have read many successful traders say how hard it was emotionally at the beginning, but after they had big accounts would always...
You're right. From the number 3, those trade are pure frustration & gambling . Shame on me.
  • #44,584
  • Feb 4, 2019 5:43am Feb 4, 2019 5:43am
Hi guys, I would like to know your opinion on my trade. I took a signal and when price hit s/r level I moved SL to BE (roughly 50 pips in profit). Price did not reach 1:1. Now I see how price retraced to my SL and I was taken out... Should I have taken the profit at s/r level? Would have it been better to trail it aggressively? I was very tempted to take profit. 50 pips is a very good result for a single day. But rules are rules. I am trying to find when follow the rules and when listen to the price. Thank you for your opinion.
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  • #44,585
  • Feb 4, 2019 8:50am Feb 4, 2019 8:50am
Quoting majrou666
Hi guys, I would like to know your opinion on my trade. I took a signal and when price hit s/r level I moved SL to BE (roughly 50 pips in profit). Price did not reach 1:1. Now I see how price retraced to my SL and I was taken out... Should I have taken the profit at s/r level? Would have it been better to trail it aggressively? I was very tempted to take profit. 50 pips is a very good result for a single day. But rules are rules. I am trying to find when follow the rules and when listen to the price. Thank you for your opinion. {image}

Nice 1 to 1 to the upside. Stop loss and Take profit depend on one's level of patience and what swing they are trading.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #44,586
  • Feb 4, 2019 8:55am Feb 4, 2019 8:55am
Quoting majrou666
Hi guys, I would like to know your opinion on my trade. I took a signal and when price hit s/r level I moved SL to BE (roughly 50 pips in profit). Price did not reach 1:1. Now I see how price retraced to my SL and I was taken out... Should I have taken the profit at s/r level? Would have it been better to trail it aggressively? I was very tempted to take profit. 50 pips is a very good result for a single day. But rules are rules. I am trying to find when follow the rules and when listen to the price. Thank you for your opinion. {image}
It happens sometimes when price is in a range. In cases like this either you break a small rule and lock some points or you accept the consequences. If you look left many times price has been rejected in that area so I think you had very good reasons to break a rule. You didn't do anything wrong though...it was a good trade.
  • #44,587
  • Feb 4, 2019 9:17am Feb 4, 2019 9:17am
Bad start this morning with two SHORTs trying for short term order flow. Both out of sync. My review shows my R/R was not favorable.
Minus 84 point on YM
  • #44,588
  • Feb 4, 2019 9:18am Feb 4, 2019 9:18am
Took a small break and decided to begin my backtesting journey. I am almost done with my backtesting, just 3 more pairs to go. Did around 1000-1250 trades over multiple TimeFrame's for 1 strategy. When I am done with backtesting, I am planning on trading demo to forward test the strategy and see how I cope with the emotions from holding these trades in real time. Then after at least 2 months of demo trading, I am going to fund a small live account, and I tend to trade that very small account for at least 3 months ( to make it all about the proces ). After I have done that, I am gradually increasing my accounts every 2 months, very slowly, to get adjusted to trade bigger amounts. You can see the progress in the attached picture and some live examples of trades that I already tested.. #accountability
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image
"Luck is when opportunity meets preparation"
  • #44,589
  • Feb 4, 2019 9:26am Feb 4, 2019 9:26am
Possible bat pattern with an AB=CD into the PRZ if this is a valid pattern then my speculation is it is a continuation to the upside and that there are 400 to 500 points to be gained to the upside. However, check with the expert Mr. Pip first.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #44,590
  • Feb 4, 2019 9:29am Feb 4, 2019 9:29am
Quoting Sheeep44
Took a small break and decided to begin my backtesting journey. I am almost done with my backtesting, just 3 more pairs to go. Did around 1000-1250 trades over multiple TimeFrame's for 1 strategy. When I am done with backtesting, I am planning on trading demo to forward test the strategy and see how I cope with the emotions from holding these trades in real time. Then after at least 2 months of demo trading, I am going to fund a small live account, and I tend to trade that very small account for at least 3 months ( to make it all about the proces...
Good to have you back Sheeep44
  • #44,591
  • Feb 4, 2019 10:30am Feb 4, 2019 10:30am
Hi all, Total 5 trades:

-27 -25 +16 +13 +1
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  • #44,592
  • Feb 4, 2019 11:08am Feb 4, 2019 11:08am
-26 on the day
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  • #44,593
  • Feb 4, 2019 11:49am Feb 4, 2019 11:49am
Hello traders,

I've been absent from the forums for a while to focus on improving my trading. Good to see more people getting into discussions here.
-26 today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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As you can see from the image attached there is two red rectangles and red arrows on the chart that have influenced my decision making.
For the first entry my expectation was for a NSH. Up until the selling marked with two red arrows I was confident that the expectation was gonna play out nicely. After entering at a lower price than expected I went to a BE after testing an area where I was waiting for sellers to come in. Ultimately got stopped out at BE+3.
Now should I have skipped this long because price went a bit further than expected and strong selling after already retesting the NSH and look for shorts in areas of selling? Most of the time I analyse price action and candles and do what Damian calls "zonetrading" I end up with losing days so I decided to just stick to the expectation here.

The price-action marked by the second rectangle made me be aggressive with my stop. Also because I went against my trade plan here which in hindsight would have been the better thing to do though.

I guess all the buying marked by green arrows and the buying area from 24925-24945 should have told me that price wants to go higher but my expectation here was for a NSL so I entered short and ultimately got stopped out.

Am I just following the expectation naively here and ignoring what price-action is telling me? Should I focus more on the overall expectation - what some call the big picture - and align myself accordingly?

I'm not sure if this can be of much help for others here because most of these things I need to figure out myself but dicussing these things and being aware of it is better than ignoring it.

Good luck with your trading.
  • #44,594
  • Feb 4, 2019 12:10pm Feb 4, 2019 12:10pm
Quoting Kayjay2011
Hello traders, I've been absent from the forums for a while to focus on improving my trading. Good to see more people getting into discussions here. -26 today. {image} As you can see from the image attached there is two red rectangles and red arrows on the chart that have influenced my decision making. For the first entry my expectation was for a NSH. Up until the selling marked with two red arrows I was confident that the expectation was gonna play out nicely. After entering at a lower price than expected I went to a BE after testing an area where...
I can only tell you what I would've done, for whatever that's worth.

1. On your first long, I don't use weekend gaps as swing points especially if the gap immediately fills.
1b. I think retry trades have a lower win%, having said that I traded one today.....that ultimately failed.
1c. I would've been at a break even and possibly have points locked in.

2. Your second long was pretty impressive but against the IOF expectation.
2b. Now if you were playing bottom bounce then great, but how much bottom bounce backtesting have you done? Do you know where your stop should be and what your targets are?

3. Your third entry short was the same candle I entered a rescue short, in other words I was trying to figure out how to get out when you were trying to get in.

If you want to take 100% corrections trades I think you can still be successful, you just have to have realistic expectations for win%. In my back testing and live testing it's less than 15% successful even with the expectation. The reward can easily be 6, 8, 10 to 1 but you need the emotional discipline to have a low win rate and still trade the setup everytime.
  • #44,595
  • Edited 1:54pm Feb 4, 2019 1:40pm | Edited 1:54pm
Quoting bmdenton23
{quote} I can only tell you what I would've done, for whatever that's worth. 1. On your first long, I don't use weekend gaps as swing points especially if the gap immediately fills. 1b. I think retry trades have a lower win%, having said that I traded one today.....that ultimately failed. 1c. I would've been at a break even and possibly have points locked in. 2. Your second long was pretty impressive but against the IOF expectation. 2b. Now if you were playing bottom bounce then great, but how much bottom bounce backtesting have you done? Do you...
Hello bmdenton,

I think overall I can be satisfied with how things worked out in the end considering the swing I chose at the beginning of my session.

By retry trades are you talking about entering after price has already tested the last NSL/NSH? If that's the case then maybe the best thing to do would be either consistently taking the trades or consistently not taking the trades. Take some and take others based on price-action leaves too much room for subjectivity for me at the moment.

For the second entry I chose the very immediate upswing as my main swing and projected the swing forward looking to trade the 1:1 into an area where I expected price to correct to. I usually don't do this unless the main swing goes way beyond 200 points.
Don't know what bottom bounce is.

I was kind of concerned about my short trade considering how price approached my area of interest. I was also looking at the 1597t and saw great support below the NSL so in hindsight I should have skipped the trade.

Thanks for your input and good luck with your trading!

Looking forward to tomorrow's session.
  • #44,596
  • Feb 4, 2019 3:41pm Feb 4, 2019 3:41pm
Here are my trades for today:
The first two were SHORTs below my support zone. for minus 84.
The third was on a 50% pull-back. I exited post decline @ 25,100.
minus 41 for the day
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  • #44,597
  • Feb 4, 2019 5:27pm Feb 4, 2019 5:27pm
Hi all,

I apologise that this question is outside of Mr Pips teachings here. I currently incorporate Mr Pips method with a blend of my own.
My question is for Mr Pip and anyone that trades multiple pairs on a higher time-frames (I'm currently trading 4HR charts on 28 pairs):

How do you handle correlations?
Specifically I'm looking for methods to avoid "cherry picking".

I currently see opportunities on GBPAUD, GBPNZD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD.
Currently my trade plan is only to trade one pair out of any highly correlated pairs (as I would prefer smoother equity swings) but to select one feels like I am "cherry picking".
My entry is via pending stop orders 5pips above or below the signal candle and as such doesn't allow me sufficient time to be able to cancel or modify any orders when the market is fast moving or entries are all very close to price, otherwise I would enter any additional trades on a separate but correlated pair but with smaller size.

One way I've thought of handling this is to reduce position size across all correlated pairs to be equivalent of just one position (ie 5 correlated pairs, risk on 1 pair = 1 standard risk/5; 3 correlated pairs, risk on 1 pair = 1 standard risk/3), as I am trading a small account this means standing aside quiet often as the size would be to small (below 0.01 lot).

I'm looking forward to read how others handle pair correlations and your methods.

Kind regards,

BOH113
  • #44,598
  • Feb 4, 2019 8:08pm Feb 4, 2019 8:08pm
So on this chart I was following UJ on the 15m (black lines indicating order flow). Price then decided to break structure not once, but 3 times. My question, is how would you all trade this scenario? The more I look at it, the more complicated it seems and with the expansion the risk increases so I'm not sure how to handle this one.
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  • #44,599
  • Feb 4, 2019 10:37pm Feb 4, 2019 10:37pm
Quoting S41nt
So on this chart I was following UJ on the 15m (black lines indicating order flow). Price then decided to break structure not once, but 3 times. My question, is how would you all trade this scenario? The more I look at it, the more complicated it seems and with the expansion the risk increases so I'm not sure how to handle this one. {image}
Your markup looks fine to me. In hindsight I would've liked to have traded it as shown. I wouldn't have taken your last short against that vertical momentum.
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  • #44,600
  • Feb 4, 2019 10:54pm Feb 4, 2019 10:54pm
Quoting Boh113
Hi all, I apologise that this question is outside of Mr Pips teachings here. I currently incorporate Mr Pips method with a blend of my own. My question is for Mr Pip and anyone that trades multiple pairs on a higher time-frames (I'm currently trading 4HR charts on 28 pairs): How do you handle correlations? Specifically I'm looking for methods to avoid "cherry picking". I currently see opportunities on GBPAUD, GBPNZD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD.3
Hi Boh,
I would say the reasons for sticking to one market using this strategy is important because watching the bars develop and how they interact with structure in real-time is important. You trade on a 4hr timeframe, so I'm not quite sure how that works. Also, different instruments have different nuances that you'll learn through screen time - different behaviour to stimuli.

This is from my experience as well as reading interviews (Market Wizards, New Market Wizards), perhaps someone here who is successful trading multiple instruments at the same time can chime in.
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