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  • #121
  • Feb 2, 2019 1:35pm Feb 2, 2019 1:35pm
Quoting Divergence
INCOME that's what's trading is all about making INCOME just like your job is all about
yes. how much is what I am figuring out with the need for equity stop. I WILL flatten every day for sure when my PnL goal is met.
Staying in my lane...
  • #122
  • Feb 2, 2019 1:57pm Feb 2, 2019 1:57pm
Quoting VEEFX
also know that a complete stranger told me once "you will fail without a well documented trading plan". He was right and I fought several times arguing over this with him via PM. I never forget what burnt me so taking things nice and easy in futures to avoid the repeat of my pitfalls.
I will add with the others with you getting behind the wheel as soon as possible. You need to start trading with real money asap, as I think your mind may play games with you based on your personality type based on your journal.....i.e. perfectionist, a bit OCD.

Get in the arena VEE, just one contract it at a time. Every time you double your money, double your contracts. You already said that you know enough to make some money. BTW, this is a damn good journal, keep it up!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #123
  • Feb 2, 2019 2:54pm Feb 2, 2019 2:54pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I will add with the others with you getting behind the wheel as soon as possible. You need to start trading with real money asap, as I think your mind may play games with you based on your personality type based on your journal.....i.e. perfectionist, a bit OCD. Get in the arena VEE, just one contract it at a time. Every time you double your money, double your contracts. You already said that you know enough to make some money. BTW, this is a damn good journal, keep it up!
Thanks. I have traded futures live (one day in oct and 1 day in november). No need to rush in but I hear you and understand strategy development has to come to an end at some point. In professional world, it takes months and years to deploy mission-critical software systems. I am just getting started so no worries. I will get there soon.
Staying in my lane...
  • #124
  • Feb 2, 2019 4:07pm Feb 2, 2019 4:07pm
strategy development doesn't end once you go live.

are you comfortable knowing that you might have to re strategize once you go live (even after all this work?) even harold switched to 30s chart recently from using market profile sometime in 2017. i remember we got into argument of market profile vs volume profile in 2017 when i decided to switch lol..

so it's an ongoing process...and it never stops.

"Once you think you have figured it out, it's the moment that everybody will start to surpass you" Daniel Negreanu
  • #125
  • Feb 2, 2019 4:25pm Feb 2, 2019 4:25pm
Quoting hilmy83
strategy development doesn't end once you go live. are you comfortable knowing that you might have to re strategize once you go live (even after all this work?) even harold switched to 30s chart recently from using market profile sometime in 2017. i remember we got into argument of market profile vs volume profile in 2017 when i decided to switch lol.. so it's an ongoing process...and it never stops. "Once you think you have figured it out, it's the moment that everybody will start to surpass you" Daniel Negreanu
I hear you and also believe in "keep doing whatever works until it stops working... and the "stop working" part of the equation is inevitable for any strategy. I am sure it took more than 2 months for you, harold or anyone to finalize what you do prior to go live? I am not on a journey to create an invention or build something unbreakable for generations to come. All I am going thru is my process of elimination to finalize and come to a system that "I" feel comfortable with. If my goal is $x/week and if I cannot prove last 52 weeks of consistently making $x per week, why on earth would I want to go live at all ? It just does not pass the "common sense" test for me. Something to "try" out in Futures requires risking a minimum of $2K of starting capital. That is just a Waste of money if I cannot even prove that in my demo or market replay. That mindset is why 99% fail making brokers richer :-)

Besides, I am trying to set an example for noobs who join forums everyday with the expectation to copy someone's strategy only to end up in a blown account or two (or dozen in many cases) when they quickly go live. I am only doing what I have preached lol
Staying in my lane...
  • #126
  • Feb 2, 2019 4:40pm Feb 2, 2019 4:40pm
Quoting hilmy83
strategy development doesn't end once you go live. are you comfortable knowing that you might have to re strategize once you go live (even after all this work?) even harold switched to 30s chart recently from using market profile sometime in 2017. i remember we got into argument of market profile vs volume profile in 2017 when i decided to switch lol.. so it's an ongoing process...and it never stops. "Once you think you have figured it out, it's the moment that everybody will start to surpass you" Daniel Negreanu
method stays THE same a tweak here or there but methodology STAYS THE SAME
  • #127
  • Edited 5:09pm Feb 2, 2019 4:46pm | Edited 5:09pm
Quoting Divergence
{quote} method stays THE same a tweak here or there but methodology STAYS THE SAME
how long did you spend on devising your method and fixing on pullback methodology before making for first live trade on NQ? It cannot be less than 2 months for sure :-
Also, why did it take you 6 yrs of being profitable every month to grow your position size from 1 to now 6 contracts?
Staying in my lane...
  • #128
  • Feb 2, 2019 5:41pm Feb 2, 2019 5:41pm
Vee I WAS TRADING CL FIRST THEN YM THEN NQ BEFORE THAT FOREX ALWAYS THE SAME METHOD A TWEAK HERE OR THERE BUT WAIT FOR TREND AND TRADE THE PULLBACK FOR YEARS THE TWEAK WAS WHERE THE ENTRY WAS FIRST IT WAS PULLBACK TO S AND R THEN TO S AND D. BASICALLY I HAD AN AHA MOMENT WHEN EVERYTHING I LEARNED BUT DIDNT UNDERSTAND LIKE ELLIOT WAVES LIKE 123 AND 2B WHICH IS PART OF THE ELLIOT STUFF I ALMOST QUIT TILL I LEANED BACK 1 DAY AND SAID WHAT YOU SEE AND WHAT I SAW WAS THE MARKET MOVES IN WAVES THEN I DEVISED A PLAN IN WHICH I CAN ENTER THOSE WAVES. I DID A BACKTEST FOR ABOUT 2 WEEKS AND SAW IT WAS NOT ONLY VIABLE BUT SUCCESSFUL I THEN JUST TRADED IT LIVE
  • #129
  • Feb 2, 2019 6:17pm Feb 2, 2019 6:17pm
Quoting Divergence
Vee I WAS TRADING CL FIRST THEN YM THEN NQ BEFORE THAT FOREX ALWAYS THE SAME METHOD A TWEAK HERE OR THERE BUT WAIT FOR TREND AND TRADE THE PULLBACK FOR YEARS THE TWEAK WAS WHERE THE ENTRY WAS FIRST IT WAS PULLBACK TO S AND R THEN TO S AND D. BASICALLY I HAD AN AHA MOMENT WHEN EVERYTHING I LEARNED BUT DIDNT UNDERSTAND LIKE ELLIOT WAVES LIKE 123 AND 2B WHICH IS PART OF THE ELLIOT STUFF I ALMOST QUIT TILL I LEANED BACK 1 DAY AND SAID WHAT YOU SEE AND WHAT I SAW WAS THE MARKET MOVES IN WAVES THEN I DEVISED A PLAN IN WHICH I CAN ENTER THOSE WAVES. I...
i was picturing this when i read your post. calm down old man lol

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  • #130
  • Feb 2, 2019 6:22pm Feb 2, 2019 6:22pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} i was picturing this when i read your post. calm down old man lol {image}
At my personal request, Harold is only trying to slap some senses in me. It's all good brother. I need to hear and experience both side of the coin :-
Staying in my lane...
  • #131
  • Feb 2, 2019 6:38pm Feb 2, 2019 6:38pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} i was picturing this when i read your post. Calm down old man lol {image}
wasnt mad or yelling at all he asked me a question amd i took him threw my process no agenda here
  • #132
  • Feb 2, 2019 10:45pm Feb 2, 2019 10:45pm
Nice thread -- thanks...

Quoting VEEFX
if I cannot prove last 52 weeks of consistently making $x per week, why on earth would I want to go live at all ? It just does not pass the "common sense" test for me.
It seems to me there are things you learn about trading, your platform, yourself when trading a real, live account. So what if you lose a few bucks -- it's part of the process.

I enjoy developing systems. And I learn more about what works and doesn't work from my live systems. Also, because there is more at stake (i.e. real money) it tends to make your brain think more deeply -- hence, you'll think of solutions or new approaches that would never have occurred to you when you stay in the sandbox.
  • #133
  • Feb 2, 2019 11:41pm Feb 2, 2019 11:41pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I hear you and also believe in "keep doing whatever works until it stops working... and the "stop working" part of the equation is inevitable for any strategy. I am sure it took more than 2 months for you, harold or anyone to finalize what you do prior to go live? I am not on a journey to create an invention or build something unbreakable for generations to come. All I am going thru is my process of elimination to finalize and come to a system that "I" feel comfortable with. If my goal is $x/week and if I cannot prove last 52 weeks of consistently...
respect for doing what you preach.
maybe it is only me, but seems like you enjoy the most a challenge, finding ever more complicated brain teasers in hope they will lead magically to success;
whereas i think that is the only part you like,
and unconsciously use that as an excuse not to trade live.
of course, there need to be a method/system/approach that leads to more profit than losses,
but i believe it can be done with a lot lot less simple than you are trying.
while risking real capital carry a chance of loss, it is most likely not a prohibitively high for someone who is high up in career and leading a large global IT team.
would you say that it isnt that much more than a couple rounds of golf, or a long weekend in Cancun?
just the same, it can give you some important experience, teach you a lot about yourself ' in the line of fire', that actually can pay out later...vs the golf or weekend that is gone to memory land but wont have much future effect.
sure, noobs come with expectations, and most lose, and few persevere.
but just like a child learn to walk by trial and error, falling aplenty, there is little way around that to walk and run.
sitting and thinking wont ever be the needed experience in real life application of anything.

happy weekend!
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #134
  • Feb 2, 2019 11:48pm Feb 2, 2019 11:48pm
Quoting robots4me
Nice thread -- thanks... {quote} It seems to me there are things you learn about trading, your platform, yourself when trading a real, live account. So what if you lose a few bucks -- it's part of the process. I enjoy developing systems. And I learn more about what works and doesn't work from my live systems. Also, because there is more at stake (i.e. real money) it tends to make your brain think more deeply -- hence, you'll think of solutions or new approaches that would never have occurred to you when you stay in the sandbox.
Thanks for stopping by. Stick around and we all might learn a thing or two from my journey. I am going to stay on track with what I am set out to accomplish and not bother with when I will go live. It will eventually happen for sure as I am not stupid to spend my time and effort forever on demo! I will happen at my own pace based on my own pre-defined milestones. I am no longer my old self to keep on funding small accounts and 'try out' new ideas. To me, Futures is the end of road for my trading journey. Either I go live with a proven, tested and fully qualified strategy or I just won't. That is just how it is going to be for me whenever I come to a crossroad of decision.

Besides, what I can now do in Sierra now is astronomical compared to where I was just weeks ago but I am trying very hard to contain my curiosity and not get sucked in the "trying mode". It's only been a month and most of my time has been spent on "how the F do I do this in Sierra?" and finding answers is not quick and easy like we have around here for plug-n-play MQL.
Staying in my lane...
  • #135
  • Feb 3, 2019 12:20am Feb 3, 2019 12:20am
Quoting profitfarmer
{quote} respect for doing what you preach. maybe it is only me, but seems like you enjoy the most a challenge, finding ever more complicated brain teasers in hope they will lead magically to success; whereas i think that is the only part you like, and unconsciously use that as an excuse not to trade live. of course, there need to be a method/system/approach that leads to more profit than losses, but i believe it can be done with a lot lot less simple than you are trying. while risking real capital carry a chance of loss, it is most likely not a...
I hear you as well and maybe you are right in saying I am purposely creating a barrier for success or an excuse to avoid going live (knowing my history here on the factory) or maybe, perhaps just maybe, no one wants me to break the "trading is simple" common myth. There was (and I still can) a time when dropping $10K in a account did not mean much to me and that is exactly the kind of mindset that got me into trouble taking me 4-5 yrs to recover from. Look, I got my daemons for sure like anyone else. I have documented each and every one of them for past 2-3 yrs and what I should not be doing. I am only avoiding the blueprint to sure-cut failures that I have personally experienced in the past, those I have personally experienced after wearing my quant hat on, after moving from subjectivity to objectivity, from hear-say to focus on facts and data, from believing to validating and many more. Y'll are barking against the wrong tree if you think I am going to revert any of my experience and not carry it forward into futures. Every step I am taking is to avoid a repeat of this with Futures taking another 4-5 yrs to breakeven lol

I realize I say things that no one wants to hear on forums. That's just me I guess being true to myself and choosing this medium for others to decide what it really takes to get there. Also / I have no desire to trade or manage my trades manually so y'll suggesting to quit demo and go live is just not applicable to my journey. I am developing an automated system strategy so I am not sure why you guys would suggest against a full regression and stress testing cycle. The flip side of your argument about vacation etc is... I live in a golf course community but not a big fan of golf ! I rather go on a vacation than waste it on 'trial and error'. In SpotFx, you are forced, by design, to try it out in live because there is no market replay with centralized real time market depth data (by design!). And please don't tell me strategytester has real tick data! Here, in futures, I am trading and testing with live tick data of each and every transaction directly from CME that everyone sees and if I don't have a proven positive expectancy system, you bet, I will not go live because there is no way a failed demo system will magically work in live. It simply does not pass my common sense logic. You are free and justified to come to your own conclusions on me. It's all good and does not affect me anymore.
Staying in my lane...
  • #136
  • Feb 3, 2019 1:20am Feb 3, 2019 1:20am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I hear you as well and maybe you are right in saying I am purposely creating a barrier for success or an excuse to avoid going live (knowing my history here on the factory) or maybe, perhaps just maybe, no one wants me to break the "trading is simple" common myth. There was (and I still can) a time when dropping $10K in a account did not mean much to me and that is exactly the kind of mindset that got me into trouble taking me 4-5 yrs to recover from. Look, I got my daemons for sure like anyone else. I have documented each and every one...
I think you can trade live fx futures if you have developed an EA in MT5. If yes, I am willing to try on a US$10,000 futures account and I will share 15% of profit with you for one year of trading and you may save the profits to set up your own account .

For me, I don't treat any fx strategy as secret because there is none. Market makers plan the moves and nobody can for sure guess when, why, and how they are going to move. It is also unknown whether they move in tandem consiously or unconciously. So 99% of uncertainty is there in regards as to when and why market will move.

We can only guess "how" element of the whole exercise and try to catch the moves like a card counter does in a casino.

Let us be very clear in our mind: we are gambling and there are no secrets and no guarantees.

Card counter do suceed so can a fx trader. It plainly needs intelligent diligent work and above all fearlessness that can come only out of the financial stability. Luck favour fearless people. Not recklessness. Remaining self-aware of your financial resources and behavioural aspect of trading is the key. Only those who focus on risk management can be a consistent profitable gambler (trader).

Behavioural trading is the idea that success comes not from knowing where or what to buy or sell, but to how ‘to be’ when buying, selling and managing your risk.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #137
  • Feb 3, 2019 1:20am Feb 3, 2019 1:20am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I hear you as well and maybe you are right in saying I am purposely creating a barrier for success or an excuse to avoid going live (knowing my history here on the factory) or maybe, perhaps just maybe, no one wants me to break the "trading is simple" common myth. There was (and I still can) a time when dropping $10K in a account did not mean much to me and that is exactly the kind of mindset that got me into trouble taking me 4-5 yrs to recover from. Look, I got my daemons for sure like anyone else. I have documented each and every one...
All people have to trade in stages. But they can't. They are too greedy, and in many cases too dumb.

If you can't make money on demo - forget about Live account!
If you can't make money with $100 account - forget about trading larger account!

And the most interesting thing is that if you can actually make money consistently with $100 account you really don't need much more. All you need is patience.
$100 with only 0.4% average daily profit can grow to over $1 000 000 in 10 years.
  • #138
  • Feb 3, 2019 1:35am Feb 3, 2019 1:35am
Quoting simnz
{quote} I think you can trade live fx futures if you have developed an EA in MT5. If yes, I am willing to try on a US$10,000 futures account and I will share 15% of profit with you for one year of trading and you may save the profits to set up your own account . For me, I don't treat any fx strategy as secret because there is none. Market makers plan the moves and nobody can for sure guess when, why, and how they are going to move. It is also unknown whether they move in tandem consiously or unconciously. So 99% of uncertainty is there in regards...
Thanks Simnz. Well written post. I agree with everything you wrote but only after the first paragraph. Ignoring the crazy thought of using MT5 in futures, why would I consider risking your capital with my 'unproven' strategy when I am not willing to risk my own capital? Is there any confusion that I am having "fear of losses"? I don't. Loss in trading is a natural and unavoidable occurrence as there is no such thing as a 100% winrate. I don't care about losses if the net expectancy is positive within my accounting period. In fact, couple of my promising strategies thus far with NQ are extremely profitable if I use no SL or SL at opposite session ranges (over 200-300 ticks in distance). It can consistently end the day in +ve and some days with 500+ ticks but is a loser in long run especially with the NQ volatility we have seen lately.

Also, you guys are missing a huge factor. There is no such thing as a "margin call" in Sierra's demo platform or in live futures (hope you guys know that!). There is also no such thing as "account blowup" in Futures. Hope you guys know that also. The broker WILL most definitely come after you for any losses incurring negative balance. They offer low day margin but if you incur losses prior to daily close, your broker will expect you to wire the funds and settle the account asap. That in itself is a tremendous risk to your trading capital. If you are not careful, you will lose far more than what is in your account. So yeah, I am not afraid of losing as part of strategy guidelines but I am not willing to lose a dime if I know something for sure won't work or has not proven to work by my own standards. I see nothing wrong with holding yourself to a very high standard of success. Better to fail a thousand times now tha a few times in live account. I think we have beaten this topic to death today :-
Staying in my lane...
  • #139
  • Feb 3, 2019 1:41am Feb 3, 2019 1:41am
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} All people have to trade in stages. But they can't. They are too greedy, and in many cases too dumb. If you can't make money on demo - forget about Live account! If you can't make money with $100 account - forget about trading larger account! And the most interesting thing is that if you can actually make money consistently with $100 account you really don't need much more. All you need is patience. $100 with only 0.4% average daily profit can grow to over $1 000 000 in 10 years.
Well said brother.

BTW: Your reversion to mean style has merit. I am doing something similar with NQ as it has a very unique signature or transition from trending to ranging on most days. So far, I am still leaning towards divergence from mean using a custom technique of measuring coast line over the edges (mandlebrot) when prices goes HH or LL and then (hopefully) measure the "inland" countryside via reversion technique (also using fractals). It may be get too challenging to automate rules to do both so keeping it simple for now and going with divergence and spare reversion for ES later on.
Staying in my lane...
  • #140
  • Feb 3, 2019 2:45am Feb 3, 2019 2:45am
Traversing the "coast line" during a compelling move works fine in a single shot for above 60degree move. As this logic is based on angular move, the momentum/force to angle conversion need a little tweak... slow trendy upward move takes a little more attempts to get on and off the tracks

EDIT: Getting off (exit) based on angular reversion is also almost perfect. Now, if I can get a simple Flatten/Reverse to work instead of cancel/exit, the traversal path could continue from coast line into inland/countryside scenic ride :-) Measurement of "roughness" is coast line to jump over the bumps seems to be okay as well.

Reminder to self: Feb 6th 2018 on 30 second chart - Maroon is for entry signal and blue is looking for continues exit/reversal condition. This is without AutoTrail-TP and AutoTrail-SL. If this model works then there is not need for TP and SL.... just jump on and off the coast line for entry and exit conditions should contain the risk to a minimum (if the direction is picked correctly on the onset. IF not, I get f*cked requiring manual intervention!)
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Staying in my lane...
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